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Political Stubbornness and Online Local Budget Transparency in Croatia 克罗地亚的政治顽固性和在线地方预算透明度
IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-01-03 DOI: 10.18045/ZBEFRI.2019.2.553
Katarina Ott, Velibor Mačkić, Mihaela Bronić
Online local budget transparency (OLBT) has been recognized as an important feature of good governance. Accordingly, in this paper, OLBT is measured in all 128 cities and a sample of 100 municipalities in Croatia using several key local budget documents published on local government websites. Using a fixed effect Poisson panel model covering the 2013-2017 period, it is shown that along with residents’ income and fiscal capacity of local governments, political ideology and political competition determine the level of OLBT. This paper contributes to the growing body of budget transparency literature by establishing the importance of political factors as determinants of OLBT in this former socialist, fiscally centralized EU member state and reveals the curious stubbornness of the citizens who consistently vote for non-transparent politicians. The main finding is that political factors (political ideology and political competition) matters in determining OLBT, resulting in suboptimal equilibrium of local governments with low levels of OLBT. The local incumbent concludes that OLBT is not a high priority and that his/her constituency will not hold it against him/her. In this environment such a conclusion stands owing to the fact that voters who are * Received: 19-06-2019; accepted: 02-12-2019 1 This work was supported by the Croatian Science Foundation [grant IP-2014-09-3008]. 2 Professor, Senior Research Advisor, Institute of Public Finance, Smičiklasova 21, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia. Scientific affiliation: public sector economics. Phone: +38514886444. E-mail: kott@ ijf.hr. ORCiD: 0000-0003-2242-4181. Website: http://www.ijf.hr/eng/employees/researchers/7/ katarina-ott-phd/1494/ (corresponding author). 3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Trg J. F. Kennedyja 6, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia. Scientific affiliation: competitiveness analysis, new political economy, political cycles. Phone: +38512383201. E-mail: vmackic@efzg.hr. ORCiD: 0000-0002-32008571. Website: http://www.efzg.unizg.hr/departments/economic-theory/faculty-2831/velibormackic-phd/22082. 4 Senior Research Associate, Institute of Public Finance, Smičiklasova 21, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia. Scientific affiliation: fiscal decentralization and development, tax system, budget transparency. Phone: +38514886444. E-mail: mihaela.bronic@ijf.hr. ORCiD: 0000-00020863-2040. Website: http://www.ijf.hr/eng/employees/researchers/7/mihaela-bronic-phd/150/. Katarina Ott, Velibor Mačkić, Mihaela Bronić • Political Stubbornness and Online... 554 Zb. rad. Ekon. fak. Rij. • 2019 • vol. 37 • no. 2 • 553-585 stubborn in their voting patterns refuse to change the incumbent who created nontransparency.
在线地方预算透明度(OLBT)已被认为是良好治理的一个重要特征。因此,在本文中,使用地方政府网站上公布的几个关键地方预算文件,对克罗地亚所有128个城市和100个城市的OLBT进行了测量。采用覆盖2013-2017年的固定效应泊松面板模型,结果表明,除了居民收入和地方政府财政能力外,政治意识形态和政治竞争也决定了地方政府的治理水平。本文通过确立政治因素在这个前社会主义、财政集中的欧盟成员国中作为OLBT决定因素的重要性,为预算透明度文献的增长做出了贡献,并揭示了一贯投票给不透明政治家的公民的奇怪固执。主要发现是政治因素(政治意识形态和政治竞争)在决定地方政府劳动生产率方面起着重要作用,导致地方政府劳动生产率水平低的次优均衡。当地现任总统认为,OLBT不是优先事项,他/她的选民不会因此反对他/她。在这种环境下,这样的结论是成立的,因为选民是*收:19-06-2019;1本文由克罗地亚科学基金会资助[基金编号:2014-09-3008]。2克罗地亚萨格勒布史密伊克拉索瓦21公共财政研究所教授、高级研究顾问。科学归属:公共部门经济学。电话:+ 1 - 38514886444。电子邮件:kott@ijf.hr。ORCiD: 0000-0003-2242-4181。网站:http://www.ijf.hr/eng/employees/researchers/7/ katarina-ott-phd/1494/(通讯作者)。3萨格勒布大学经济与商业学院助理教授,Trg J. F. Kennedyja,克罗地亚萨格勒布10000。科学归属:竞争力分析、新政治经济学、政治周期。电话:+ 1 - 38512383201。电子邮件:vmackic@efzg.hr。ORCiD: 0000-0002-32008571。网站:http://www.efzg.unizg.hr/departments/economic-theory/faculty-2831/velibormackic-phd/22082。4公共财政研究所高级研究员,克罗地亚萨格勒布smi iklasova 21,10000。科学归属:财政分权与发展、税收制度、预算透明度。电话:+ 1 - 38514886444。电子邮件:mihaela.bronic@ijf.hr。ORCiD: 0000-00020863-2040。网站:http://www.ijf.hr/eng/employees/researchers/7/mihaela-bronic-phd/150/。Katarina Ott, Velibor ma基奇,Mihaela broniki•政治固执和在线…554 Zb。Ekon rad。fak。Rij。•2019•第37卷•no。•553-585顽固的投票模式拒绝改变造成不透明的现任者。
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引用次数: 2
Integrity of the benchmark price for price testing of US municipal bonds 诚信基准价格用于美国市政债券的价格测试
IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.18045/zbefri.2020.1.215
S. Devjak
External financial market data institutions (vendors) may provide different prices for the same US municipal bond due to differences among market participants in perception about its market value. The valuation control function will include only selected vendors in the calculation of the consensus price, which enters as a benchmark price in the price testing process. Selection of vendors is largely driven by the valuation control function’s consideration of their valuation capabilities and their market coverage. Empirical analysis in this paper shows that additional pricing service may bring additional pricing information to the final consensus price, which may significantly alter the benchmark price and final price testing results. The approach described in this paper is in interest of any financial institution with US municipal bonds in the trading portfolio. Contribution of this paper to valuation of US municipal bonds is high because remaining literature does not explain alternative approach to measurement of additional pricing information in the benchmark price.
由于市场参与者对美国市政债券市场价值认知的差异,外部金融市场数据机构(供应商)可能会对同一种美国市政债券提供不同的价格。估值控制功能将只包括选定的供应商计算共识价格,作为基准价格进入价格测试过程。供应商的选择在很大程度上取决于估值控制功能对其估值能力和市场覆盖范围的考虑。本文的实证分析表明,附加定价服务可能会给最终共识价格带来额外的定价信息,从而显著改变基准价格和最终价格测试结果。本文所描述的方法符合任何在交易组合中持有美国市政债券的金融机构的利益。本文对美国市政债券估值的贡献很大,因为其余文献没有解释衡量基准价格中附加定价信息的替代方法。
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引用次数: 0
Total factor productivity drivers in the selected EU countries: Cointegration approach 选定的欧盟国家全要素生产率驱动因素:协整方法
IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.18045/zbefri.2020.1.295
Z. Borovic, Mladen Rebić, Dalibor Tomaš
In this paper, we will present the results of our survey on TFP and its main drivers. For this purpose, our analysis is based on a sample of thirteen EU countries for the period 1995 - 2016. In the first iteration, we have estimated the TFP for selected countries. The main goal of this paper is to determine the existence of a long-run relationship, ie. cointegration between the TFP and its main drivers. To do so, in the second iteration we have used the relatively new panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model proposed by Pesaran (1997) and Pesaran and Shin (1999). The obtained results in this paper reveal the existence of a long-term relationship, i.e. co-integration between the TFP on one hand, and R&D, and ICT, on the other hand, confirming the basic hypothesis that there is a long-term and statistically significant relationship, i.e. co-integration between the above-mentioned variables.
在本文中,我们将介绍我们对全要素生产率及其主要驱动因素的调查结果。为此,我们的分析基于1995年至2016年期间13个欧盟国家的样本。在第一次迭代中,我们估计了选定国家的全要素生产率。本文的主要目的是确定一种长期关系的存在。全要素生产率与其主要驱动因素之间的协整关系。为了做到这一点,在第二次迭代中,我们使用了Pesaran(1997)和Pesaran和Shin(1999)提出的相对较新的面板ARDL(自回归分布式滞后)模型。本文得到的结果揭示了TFP与R&D、ICT之间存在长期的协整关系,证实了上述变量之间存在长期且统计显著的协整关系的基本假设。
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引用次数: 3
Research and Development and Economic Growth: EU Port Regions 研发与经济增长:欧盟港口地区
IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-27 DOI: 10.18045/ZBEFRI.2019.2.587
Gorana Mudronja, Alen Jugović, Dunja Škalamera-Alilović
Investment in research and development (R&D) creates preconditions for the implementation of more advanced and better technologies. It enables the introduction of new products or production processes which can result in higher earnings and potential economic growth. Even though research and development is a catalyst for the genesis of aggregate economic activity, its importance is not widely researched at regional levels. The European Union has defined strategies which view innovation as an essential element in stimulating growth and job creation. The aim of this paper is to establish and measure the impact of investment in R&D on economic growth of port regions. The data used in this research were panel data of the European Union’s port regions for NUTS 2 classification for the period from 2005 to 2015. The results of the two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) indicate that investment in R&D has a significant impact on the economic growth of the port regions in European Union. However, in order for innovations to be accepted and implemented, it is also necessary for regions to have specific economic structure which was further analyzed in this paper. Regions with high innovation capacity create greater economic benefits and are considered to grow faster than other regions.
对研发的投资为实施更先进、更好的技术创造了先决条件。它能够引入新产品或生产工艺,从而带来更高的收入和潜在的经济增长。尽管研究和开发是总经济活动产生的催化剂,但其重要性并没有在区域层面得到广泛研究。欧洲联盟制定了一些战略,将创新视为刺激增长和创造就业的重要因素。本文的目的是建立和衡量研发投资对港口地区经济增长的影响。本研究中使用的数据是2005年至2015年期间欧盟港口地区NUTS 2分类的面板数据。两步广义矩方法(GMM)的结果表明,研发投资对欧盟港口地区的经济增长有显著影响。然而,为了让创新被接受和实施,区域也有必要有特定的经济结构,本文对此进行了进一步分析。创新能力高的地区创造了更大的经济效益,被认为比其他地区增长更快。
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引用次数: 6
Reaction of Zagreb Stock Exchange CROBEX Index to macroeconomic announcements within a high frequency time interval 萨格勒布证券交易所CROBEX指数对高频时间间隔内宏观经济公告的反应
IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-27 DOI: 10.18045/ZBEFRI.2019.2.741
Tomasz Schabek, Bojana Olgić Draženović, D. Mance
The purpose of this study is to analyse Zagreb Stock Exchange CROBEX Index reactions to selected macroeconomic announcements within ultra-short time intervals. We utilize 5-minute rates of returns from September 2017 to March 2018 and 25 macroeconomic announcements. After carefully arranging the data, we ran the regression with dummy variables capturing the exact announcement times. We used heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimations in order to account for specific characteristics of intraday data and to retain the robustness of the results. Our results indicate that, for short intraday periods, some reactions are statistically significant, but the majority stays insignificant. These conclusions support the semi-strong form of the efficient-market hypothesis and are in line with inferences of similar studies of advanced economies.
本研究的目的是分析萨格勒布证券交易所CROBEX指数对超短时间间隔内选定的宏观经济公告的反应。我们利用2017年9月至2018年3月的5分钟回报率和25个宏观经济公告。在仔细安排数据之后,我们使用虚拟变量运行回归,获取准确的公告时间。我们使用异方差和自相关一致性(HAC)估计来解释日内数据的特定特征并保持结果的稳健性。我们的结果表明,在短时间内,一些反应在统计上是显著的,但大多数反应仍然不显著。这些结论支持有效市场假说的半强形式,并与发达经济体类似研究的推论一致。
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引用次数: 2
Does digitalization affect the contribution of entrepreneurship to economic growth? 数字化是否会影响企业家精神对经济增长的贡献?
IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-27 DOI: 10.18045/ZBEFRI.2019.2.653
Maja Ivanović-Đukić, T. Stevanović, Tamara Rađenović
The paper analyses the contribution of different types of innovative entrepreneurship: new products entrepreneurship (NP), new technology development entrepreneurship (NT), high growth expectation entrepreneurship (HG), and average growth expectation entrepreneurship (AG) to economic growth through the EU regions, which differ from each other on the degree of digitization. The regions were created by the application of cluster analysis. The clustering criterion was the level of digitization measured by the Digital Economy and Society Index. Hierarchical regression models were developed with purpose to investigate the effect of different types of innovative entrepreneurship on economic growth, on panel data for the period 2010-2017. The obtained results confirm differences in contribution of the certain types of entrepreneurship to economic growth in the EU regions, as well as, the influence of digitization on the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth. High growth expectation entrepreneurship and new technology development entrepreneurship have greatest contribution to economic growth in the regions characterized by a higher degree of digitization. On the other side, average growth expectation entrepreneurship and new products entrepreneurship have a dominant role in economic growth in the regions with lower levels of digitization.
本文分析了不同类型的创新企业家精神:新产品企业家精神(NP)、新技术开发企业家精神(NT)、高增长预期企业家精神(HG)和平均增长预期企业家精神(AG)通过欧盟地区对经济增长的贡献,它们在数字化程度上存在差异。利用聚类分析的方法生成区域。聚类标准为数字经济与社会指数衡量的数字化水平。利用2010-2017年面板数据,建立层次回归模型,探讨不同类型创新创业对经济增长的影响。所得结果证实了欧盟地区某些类型的企业家精神对经济增长的贡献存在差异,以及数字化对企业家精神与经济增长之间关系的影响。在数字化程度较高的地区,高增长预期创业和新技术开发创业对经济增长的贡献最大。另一方面,在数字化水平较低的地区,平均增长预期创业和新产品创业对经济增长的作用占主导地位。
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引用次数: 15
Time-varying parameters of Croatian import demand 克罗地亚进口需求的时变参数
IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-27 DOI: 10.18045/ZBEFRI.2019.2.853
Mile Bošnjak, Vlatka Bilas, Domagoj Racic
The paper aims to examine Croatian import demand elasticities to changes in income and relative prices while allowing time variation in parameters of import demand. Data sample consist of quarterly time series data over the period 2000 q1 -2018 q3. Following state space model with time-varying parameters approach estimates were obtained and tested. The results revealed persistent and high income elasticity of import demand in Croatia. However, the role of relative prices has changed over the observed period and eventually cannot be distinguished from zero. The findings from this research supported the hypothesis of prices convergence in Croatia towards the prices within European Monetary Union member countries. Furthermore, results found no significant effect on Croatian import demand when Croatia joined the European Union. The research results indicate that, due to a relatively high income elasticity of import demand and convergence of import prices, production of innovative and sophisticated products should be facilitated.
本文旨在考察克罗地亚进口需求弹性的收入和相对价格的变化,同时允许进口需求参数的时间变化。数据样本由2000年第一季度至2018年第三季度的季度时间序列数据组成。得到了具有时变参数的状态空间模型,并进行了验证。结果表明,克罗地亚进口需求具有持久的高收入弹性。然而,相对价格的作用在观察期间发生了变化,最终无法与零区分开来。这项研究的结果支持克罗地亚物价趋同于欧洲货币联盟成员国物价的假设。此外,结果发现克罗地亚加入欧盟对克罗地亚进口需求没有显著影响。研究结果表明,由于进口需求的收入弹性较高,进口价格趋同,应促进创新和尖端产品的生产。
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引用次数: 2
Persistence of shocks in CDS returns on Croatian bonds: Quantile autoregression approach 克罗地亚债券CDS收益冲击的持久性:分位数自回归方法
IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-27 DOI: 10.18045/ZBEFRI.2019.2.759
Mile Bošnjak, I. Novak, Maja Bašić
The paper aims to examine persistence of shocks in returns on CDS for 5Y Croatian bonds. Based on sample of daily data from January 6, 2004 up until December 13, 2019 the paper evaluated research hypothesis that assumed persistence of shocks in returns on 5Y Croatian bond. To evaluate the research hypothesis, the paper employed quantile autoregression approach and nonparametric time varying autoregreession approach. The empirical results rejected the research hypothesis assuming persistence of shocks in returns on CDS for 5Y Croatian bonds. Based on the results from this paper, returns on CDS from for 5Y Croatian bonds are in line with efficient market hypothesis for endogenous shocks of small magnitude and at the highest level of endogenous shocks. Furthermore, efficient market hypothesis holds during the calm periods, while during the periods with more dynamics in CDS prices the paper suggests profitable strategy for trader and investors. Eventually, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion regarding efficient market hypothesis while revealing the case of returns on CDS for 5Y Croatian bonds. Furthermore, the paper suggests trading and investment strategies for investors.
本文旨在研究克罗地亚5年期债券的CDS收益冲击的持久性。基于2004年1月6日至2019年12月13日的每日数据样本,本文评估了假设5Y克罗地亚债券回报持续震荡的研究假设。为了评估研究假设,本文采用了分位数自回归方法和非参数时变自回归方法。实证结果否定了假设5年期克罗地亚债券的CDS收益持续震荡的研究假设。根据本文的研究结果,克罗地亚5年期债券的CDS收益在较小规模的内生冲击和最高水平的内生冲击下符合有效市场假设。此外,有效市场假说在平稳期成立,而在CDS价格变动较大的时期,本文提出了交易者和投资者的盈利策略。最后,本文为正在进行的关于有效市场假设的讨论做出了贡献,同时揭示了5Y克罗地亚债券的CDS回报情况。此外,本文还为投资者提出了交易和投资策略。
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引用次数: 2
Taxes and the macro economy 税收和宏观经济
IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-27 DOI: 10.18045/ZBEFRI.2019.2.377
R. Barro
My research with Furman (2018) assessed the 2017 U.S. tax reform and concluded that economic growth would be boosted by about 1 percent per year for 2018-19 and to a lesser extent for the following eight years. This forecast accorded well with realizations through the first quarter of 2019, but subsequent growth is slower, likely due to adverse effects from the ongoing trade war. Extensions from the previous research consider effects from businesses’ choices of legal form between corporate and pass-through status. Corporate form conveys benefits from perpetual legal identity, limited liability, potential for public trading of shares, and ability to retain earnings. However, legal changes have enhanced pass-through alternatives, for example, through the invention of the S-corporation in 1958 and the improved legal status of LLCs (limited liability companies) at the end of the 1980s. Corporate form is subject to a time varying tax wedge, which offsets the productivity benefits. In a theoretical framework, with a distribution of firms’ productivities associated with corporate and pass-through status, the tax wedge determines the fraction of firms that opt for corporate status, the level of economy-wide output (productivity), and the share of output generated by corporations. This framework underlies the empirical analysis of corporate shares of business economic activity. Long-difference regressions for 1968-2013 show that a higher tax wedge reduces the corporate share of gross assets. The corporate share also exhibits downward trends, likely reflecting underlying legal changes.
我与弗曼(2018)的研究评估了2017年美国的税收改革,得出的结论是,在2018-19年期间,经济增长将每年提高约1%,在接下来的8年里,经济增长的提高幅度较小。这一预测与2019年第一季度的实现情况非常吻合,但随后的增长放缓,可能是由于持续的贸易战的不利影响。前文研究的延伸考虑了企业在法人身份和直通身份之间选择法律形式的影响。公司形式从永久的法律身份、有限责任、公开交易股票的潜力和保留收益的能力中获得好处。然而,法律的变化增强了传递的选择,例如,通过1958年s公司的发明和有限责任公司(有限责任公司)在20世纪80年代末的法律地位的提高。公司形式受制于时变的税收楔子,这抵消了生产率的好处。在理论框架中,由于企业的生产率分布与企业地位和传递地位相关,税收楔子决定了选择企业地位的企业的比例、整个经济的产出(生产率)水平和企业产出的份额。这一框架是企业经济活动中公司股份实证分析的基础。1968年至2013年的长差回归显示,较高的税收楔子降低了企业占总资产的比例。公司股价也呈现下降趋势,可能反映了潜在的法律变化。
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引用次数: 0
Tax evasion in the countries of Former Yugoslavia 前南斯拉夫国家的逃税行为
IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-12-27 DOI: 10.18045/ZBEFRI.2019.2.823
Marko Crnogorac, Santiago Lago‐Peñas
This article presents estimates of tax evasion in all Former Yugoslavian countries for various years and taxes during the last two decades. The scarcely available fiscal and national accounts data only allow us to provide approximate estimates. Nevertheless, they are a useful contribution to the existing literature in a unique sense since tax evasion is estimated for the very first time for some of the countries. The main aggregate assessment of tax evasion is based on data for shadow economy and tax burden. In addition, this research finding provides more specific measures of evasion for some single taxes that are based on data discrepancies from different sources. Lastly, we derive implications for the controls of tax evasion and the observed tax collections.
这篇文章提出了所有前南斯拉夫国家在过去二十年中各种年份和税收的逃税估计。难以获得的财政和国民账户数据只能让我们提供大概的估计。尽管如此,它们在一种独特的意义上对现有文献作出了有益的贡献,因为对某些国家的逃税行为首次进行了估计。对偷税漏税的综合评估主要基于影子经济和税负数据。此外,这项研究发现为一些基于不同来源的数据差异的单一税提供了更具体的逃税措施。最后,我们推导了对逃税和观察到的税收征收控制的影响。
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引用次数: 3
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Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Rijeci-Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics
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