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Shaping baseline scenarios of economic activity with CGE models: introduction to the special issue 用CGE模型塑造经济活动的基线情景:特刊导言
IF 2.5 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.050101af
R. Dellink, D. Mensbrugghe, B. Saveyn
This introductory paper to the special issue on shaping long-term baselines with Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models presents the main challenges and opportunities in constructing numerical scenarios of future economic activity using CGE models. Better understanding the role of socioeconomic drivers in baseline scenarios allows for better understanding of policy scenarios. The combined set of papers in this special issue provides three key contributions to the literature. First, it highlights the need and room for improved transparency and possibly harmonisation of baseline assumptions, while avoiding herding behaviour where all models make identical assumptions. Secondly, it raises awareness of the crucial role of the baseline in quantitative dynamic CGE analysis. Thirdly, it provides the means and incentives to modelling teams to construct more sophisticated baselines by showing practices used in advanced large-scale models and highlighting the role of different drivers. It is the objective of this special issue to set a research agenda, encouraging greater attention to baseline scenarios in the research literature.
这篇关于用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型塑造长期基线的特刊的介绍性论文介绍了使用CGE模型构建未来经济活动的数字情景的主要挑战和机遇。更好地理解社会经济驱动因素在基线情景中的作用,可以更好地理解政策情景。这期特刊的论文集提供了对文献的三个关键贡献。首先,它强调了提高透明度的必要性和空间,并可能协调基线假设,同时避免所有模型都做出相同假设的羊群行为。其次,它提高了人们对基线在定量动态CGE分析中的关键作用的认识。第三,它为建模团队提供了手段和激励,通过展示先进的大型模型中使用的实践并强调不同驱动因素的作用,来构建更复杂的基线。本期特刊的目标是制定研究议程,鼓励更多地关注研究文献中的基线情景。
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引用次数: 13
Capturing key energy and emission trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges 在CGE模型中捕捉关键的能源和排放趋势:现状和剩余挑战评估
IF 2.5 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.050106AF
Taran Fæhn, G. Bachner, Robert H. Beach, Jean Château, S. Fujimori, M. Ghosh, M. Hamdi-Chérif, E. Lanzi, S. Paltsev, Toon Vandyck, Bruno S. L. Cunha, Rafael Garaffa, K. Steininger
Limiting global warming in line with the goals in the Paris Agreement will require substantial technological and behavioural transformations. This challenge drives many of the current modelling trends. This article undertakes a review of 17 state-of-the-art recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and assesses the key methodologies and applied modules they use for representing sectoral energy and emission characteristics and dynamics. The purpose is to provide technical insight into recent advances in the modelling of current and future energy and abatement technologies and how they can be used to make baseline projections and scenarios 20-80 years ahead. Numerical illustrations are provided. In order to represent likely energy system transitions in the decades to come, modern CGE tools have learned from bottom-up studies. Three different approaches to baseline quantification can be distinguished: (a) exploiting bottom-up model characteristics to endogenize responses of technological investment and utilization, (b) relying on external information sources to feed the exogenous parameters and variables of the model, and (c) linking the model with more technology-rich, partial models to obtain bottom-up- and pathway-consistent parameters.
根据《巴黎协定》的目标限制全球变暖需要进行实质性的技术和行为变革。这一挑战推动了当前许多建模趋势。本文对17个最先进的递归动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型进行了综述,并评估了它们用于表示部门能源和排放特征和动态的关键方法和应用模块。其目的是提供技术见解,了解当前和未来能源和减排技术建模的最新进展,以及如何使用这些技术来做出20-80年前的基线预测和情景。提供了数字插图。为了代表未来几十年可能发生的能源系统转型,现代CGE工具从自下而上的研究中学习。可以区分三种不同的基线量化方法:(a)利用自下而上的模型特征来内生技术投资和利用的反应,(b)依靠外部信息源来提供模型的外生参数和变量,以及(c)将模型与更丰富的技术联系起来,部分模型,以获得自下而上和路径一致的参数。
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引用次数: 15
Incorporating Unemployment into the GTAP Model 将失业纳入GTAP模型
IF 2.5 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-12-25 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.040202sm1f
E. Peterson
This paper documents the development of a labor module that incorporates job-search frictions, to introduce unemployment into the standard GTAP model. In this approach, unemployed individuals must search for a job opening and firms that want to hire must search for a worker to fill the job. To illustrate the potential value of a GTAP model with frictional unemployment, the impacts of a 25 percent increase in U.S. tariffs on metal products (e.g., ferrous and non-ferrous metals) are simulated. While employment of skilled and unskilled labor increases in the U.S. metals sector, employment of both types of labor declines in U.S. manufacturing and services sectors. These decreases in employment offset the increase in the metals sector, leading to a 0.8 percent increase in the unemployment of unskilled labor and a 1.5 percent in the unemployment of skilled labor. These increases would translate to a 0.1 percent point increase in the unemployment rate in the U.S. labor market. A potential barrier to wider use of a the GTAP model with unemployment is the availability of job separation or turnover rate data in regions other than the United States. In the example simulation, job turnover rates, and thus the initial levels of matched labor in the non-U.S. regions are assumed to be the same as for United States.
本文记录了一个包含求职摩擦的劳工模块的开发,将失业引入标准的GTAP模型。在这种方法中,失业人员必须寻找工作机会,而想要招聘的公司必须寻找一名工人来填补这一职位。为了说明具有摩擦失业的GTAP模型的潜在价值,模拟了美国对金属产品(如黑色金属和有色金属)关税增加25%的影响。虽然美国金属行业的熟练和非熟练劳动力就业率有所增加,但美国制造业和服务业的这两类劳动力就业率都有所下降。就业人数的减少抵消了金属行业的增长,导致非熟练劳动力的失业率上升0.8%,熟练劳动力的就业率上升1.5%。这些增长将使美国劳动力市场的失业率上升0.1%。更广泛地使用GTAP失业模型的一个潜在障碍是美国以外地区的离职或流动率数据的可用性。在示例模拟中,假设非美国地区的工作更替率以及匹配劳动力的初始水平与美国相同。
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引用次数: 2
General Equilibrium Modelling of the Insurance Industry: U.S. Crop Insurance 保险业的一般均衡模型:美国农作物保险
IF 2.5 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-12-25 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.040203sm1f
A. Gohin
The U.S. farm policy has progressively changed in recent years, with greater reliance on subsidized crop insurance programs in the place of fixed direct payments. Despite the use of such insurance over a long period of time, quantitative macroeconomic assessments of insurance programs are lacking. We develop an original stochastic computable general equilibrium framework where we isolate the coverage effects provided by subsidized insurance programs. We find that their welfare effects are dramatically modified once we recognize their risk sharing properties. Our simulated market effects on the U.S. cereal markets are consistent with currently available microeconometric evidence.
近年来,美国的农业政策逐渐发生了变化,更多地依赖补贴作物保险计划来代替固定的直接支付。尽管长期使用此类保险,但缺乏对保险计划的定量宏观经济评估。我们开发了一个原始的随机可计算的一般均衡框架,其中我们隔离了补贴保险计划提供的覆盖效应。我们发现,一旦我们认识到他们的风险分担特性,他们的福利效应就会发生巨大变化。我们对美国谷物市场的模拟市场效应与目前可用的微观计量证据一致。
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引用次数: 1
Estimating International Trade Margins Shares by Mode of Transport for the GTAP Data Base (supplemental materials) GTAP数据库按运输方式估算国际贸易利润份额(补充材料)
IF 2.5 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.040102SM1F
José G. Nuño‐Ledesma, Nelson B. Villoria
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引用次数: 0
The GTAP Data Base: Version 10 GTAP数据库:版本10
IF 2.5 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-06-26 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.040101AF
Angel H. Aguiar, M. Chepeliev, Erwin Corong, Robert McDougall, D. Mensbrugghe
This paper highlights the numerous improvements to the Global Trade, Assistance, and Production (GTAP) Data Base, version 10 (also referred to as GTAP 10). The Data Base describes the world economy for 4 reference years (2004, 2007, 2011, and 2014) and distinguishes 65 sectors, up from 57 in the previous release, in each of the 141 countries/regions. The 121 countries in the Data Base account for 98% of world GDP and 92% of world population. For each country/region, the Data Base reports production, intermediate and final uses, international trade and transport margins, and taxes/subsidies. This Data Base underlies most, if not all, applied global general equilibrium models. We use the time series GTAP 10 Data Base to examine the evolution of carbon dioxide emissions embodied in bilateral merchandise and services trade over the 2004-2014 period.
本文重点介绍了对全球贸易、援助和生产(GTAP)数据库第10版(也称为GTAP 10)的众多改进。该数据库描述了4个参考年(2004年、2007年、2011年和2014年)的世界经济,并区分了141个国家/地区中的65个部门,高于上一版本中的57个。数据库中的121个国家占世界GDP的98%,占世界人口的92%。对于每个国家/地区,数据库报告生产、中间和最终用途、国际贸易和运输利润以及税收/补贴。这个数据库是大多数(如果不是全部的话)应用的全球一般均衡模型的基础。我们使用时间序列GTAP10数据库来研究2004-2014年期间双边商品和服务贸易中二氧化碳排放的演变。
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引用次数: 281
Melitz in GTAP Made Easy: the A2M Conversion Method and Result Interpretation Melitz在GTAP简化:A2M转换方法和结果解释
IF 2.5 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-06-26 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.040104AF
P. Dixon, M. Jerie, Maureen T. Rimmer
Since the 1970s, Armington has been the workhorse specification of trade in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Under Armington, agents substitute between products from different countries. Conceptually, Melitz provides a more attractive approach in which substitution is between products from different firms rather than countries. Other attractive features of Melitz are monopolistic competition and economies of scale from fixed establishment costs for firms and fixed set-up costs on trade links. In this paper, we show how, with little change to existing code, an Armington model can be converted to Melitz by adding a few equations and introducing closure swaps. We apply our Armington-to-Melitz method to the Armington-based Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to derive GTAP-Armington-to-Melitz (GTAP-A2M). We show how results from a CGE model with Melitz industries can be interpreted via back-of-the-envelope calculations. In simulations of the effects of a tariff imposed by North America on imports of apparel, we find greater welfare losses for exporting regions under Melitz than under Armington principally because contraction of apparel output in these regions under Melitz generates an increase in the cost to their households of domestic apparel. Finally, we review two other Melitz-based versions of GTAP: GTAP-HET and a recently published model by Bekkers and Francois.
自20世纪70年代以来,阿明顿一直是可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型中贸易的主力规范。在阿明顿,代理商在不同国家的产品之间进行替代。从概念上讲,梅利茨提出了一种更有吸引力的方法,即在不同公司而不是国家的产品之间进行替代。梅利茨的其他吸引人的特点是垄断竞争和规模经济,因为企业的固定设立成本和贸易联系上的固定设立成本。在本文中,我们展示了如何在对现有代码进行少量更改的情况下,通过添加一些方程和引入闭包交换将Armington模型转换为Melitz模型。我们将阿明顿-梅利茨方法应用于基于阿明顿的全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)模型,得出GTAP-阿明顿-梅利茨模型(GTAP- a2m)。我们展示了如何通过粗略的计算来解释梅利茨工业的CGE模型的结果。在模拟北美对服装进口征收关税的影响时,我们发现,在梅利茨政策下,出口地区的福利损失比阿明顿政策下更大,这主要是因为在梅利茨政策下,这些地区服装产量的收缩导致其家庭购买国内服装的成本增加。最后,我们回顾了另外两个基于melitz的GTAP版本:GTAP- het和Bekkers和Francois最近发表的模型。
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引用次数: 2
Estimating International Trade Margins Shares by Mode of Transport for the GTAP Data Base GTAP数据库按运输方式估算国际贸易利润份额
IF 2.5 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-06-26 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.040102AF
José G. Nuño‐Ledesma, Nelson B. Villoria
We estimate international transportation margin shares by mode of transport for the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base. For each available origin-destination-GTAP sector triplet, we estimate the fractional share of the transport margin attributable to air, water, and other shipping modes. We use published relationships between ad valorem proportional changes in prices due to transportation costs and distances, weight-value ratios and fuel prices. Our final database contains 344,554 observations (origin-destination-sector-mode combinations) with transportation margin modal shares organized by 228 exporter countries, 209 importer countries, 45 traded GTAP sectors and 3 transportation modes. The main contribution of this article is to bring a more comprehensive set of information on trade by transport mode covering around 65% of global trade in 2004 and 55% in 2011. Our estimated shares contrast with those traditionally used in the GTAP Data Base which are extrapolations based solely on the modes of transport used by US exporters. A comparison of our shares with those used in version 9.0 of the GTAP Data Base reveals that the role of water transportation services in international trade is underestimated, while that of air transportation is overestimated. Overall, we find that estimations using the modal shares in version 9.0 of the GTAP Data Base overestimate the greenhouse gas emissions associated with international transport. Our new data were used to estimate transport margins by mode in Version 9.1 of the GTAP Data Base, and it is expected that our methods will be used to update future versions of the database.
我们为全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)数据库估计了按运输方式划分的国际运输利润份额。对于每个可用的始发地-目的地- gtap部门三元组,我们估计了可归因于空运、水运和其他运输方式的运输利润的一小部分份额。我们使用已公布的从价比例变化与运输成本、距离、重量价值比和燃料价格之间的关系。我们的最终数据库包含344,554个观察值(始发地-目的地-部门-模式组合),其中包括由228个出口国、209个进口国、45个GTAP贸易部门和3种运输模式组织的运输利润率模式份额。本文的主要贡献是提供了一套更全面的贸易信息,包括2004年约占全球贸易65%的运输方式和2011年约占全球贸易55%的运输方式。我们估计的份额与GTAP数据库中传统使用的份额形成对比,后者仅根据美国出口商使用的运输方式进行外推。将我们的份额与GTAP数据库9.0版本的数据进行比较,可以发现水运服务在国际贸易中的作用被低估了,而航空运输的作用被高估了。总体而言,我们发现使用GTAP数据库9.0版中的模式份额估算过高估计了与国际运输相关的温室气体排放量。我们的新数据被用于GTAP数据库9.1版中按模式估计运输边际,预计我们的方法将用于更新数据库的未来版本。
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引用次数: 4
Tools for Open Source, Subnational CGE Modeling with an Illustrative Analysis of Carbon Leakage. 开源工具,地方CGE建模与碳泄漏的说明性分析。
IF 2.5 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.040201af
Thomas F Rutherford, Andrew Schreiber

This paper introduces the Wisconsin National Data Consortium (WiNDC) framework for producing self-consistent accounts based on publicly available datasets that can be used in sub-national economic equilibrium analysis in the United States. We describe the process used to generate regional social accounting matrices and a calibrated static multi-regional, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model conformal with the constructed dataset. As illustration, we show how the core model can be applied for the analysis of energy-environment issues. We use an energy-economy extension of the core model to assess the effectiveness of several state level greenhouse gas mitigation proposals. Sub-national abatement measures result in carbon leakage - mandated reductions in controlled areas may be vitiated by increased emissions in uncontrolled jurisdictions. Using a WiNDC-based model, we calculate leakage rates and show how these depend on the underlying trade model. Our calculations demonstrate the importance of both data and modeling assumptions for the simulation of policy experiments.

本文介绍了威斯康星州国家数据联盟(WiNDC)框架,该框架基于可用于美国次国家经济均衡分析的公开数据集生成自一致的账户。我们描述了用于生成区域社会核算矩阵的过程,以及与构建的数据集一致的校准静态多区域,多部门可计算的一般均衡模型。作为说明,我们展示了如何将核心模型应用于能源-环境问题的分析。我们使用核心模型的能源经济扩展来评估几个州一级温室气体减排建议的有效性。次国家的减排措施导致碳泄漏——受控地区的强制减排可能会被不受控制的管辖区的排放增加所抵消。使用基于windc的模型,我们计算泄漏率,并显示泄漏率如何依赖于基础贸易模型。我们的计算证明了数据和建模假设对政策实验模拟的重要性。
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引用次数: 5
CGEBox: A Flexible, Modular and Extendable Framework for CGE Analysis in GAMS (supplemental files) CGEBox: GAMS中用于CGE分析的灵活、模块化和可扩展框架(补充文件)
IF 2.5 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2018-12-27 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.030203SM1F
W. Britz, D. Mensbrugghe
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal of Global Economic Analysis
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