Pub Date : 2018-12-27DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.030204SM1F
G. Wittwer, Mark Horridge
{"title":"Prefectural Representation of the Regions of China in a Bottom-up CGE Model: SinoTERM365 (supplemental files)","authors":"G. Wittwer, Mark Horridge","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.030204SM1F","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.030204SM1F","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2018-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42147526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-27DOI: 10.21642/jgea.030202sm1f
A. Antimiani, L. Salvatici, Ilaria Fusacchia
{"title":"GTAP-VA: An Integrated Tool for Global Value Chain Analysis (supplemental materials)","authors":"A. Antimiani, L. Salvatici, Ilaria Fusacchia","doi":"10.21642/jgea.030202sm1f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/jgea.030202sm1f","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2018-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45382493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We create an applied general equilibrium database that represents 162 sectors in 365 prefectural regions of the Chinese economy. Our approach requires relatively modest data requirements to create a multi-region, sub-national database and extends methods used in The Enormous Regional Model (TERM). We call the new database ‘SinoTERM365’. Where the database structure allows for more information than is available, we use simple assumptions to supply the deficiency. However we hope that model users may collaborate to find more or better data. An illustrative simulation shows the long-run effects of a switch from coal to hydro electricity generation.
{"title":"Prefectural Representation of the Regions of China in a Bottom-up CGE Model: SinoTERM365","authors":"G. Wittwer, Mark Horridge","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.030204AF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.030204AF","url":null,"abstract":"We create an applied general equilibrium database that represents 162 sectors in 365 prefectural regions of the Chinese economy. Our approach requires relatively modest data requirements to create a multi-region, sub-national database and extends methods used in The Enormous Regional Model (TERM). We call the new database ‘SinoTERM365’. Where the database structure allows for more information than is available, we use simple assumptions to supply the deficiency. However we hope that model users may collaborate to find more or better data. An illustrative simulation shows the long-run effects of a switch from coal to hydro electricity generation.","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2018-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44392796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global Value Chains (GVCs) have transformed production across a broad range of goods and services worldwide. New trade statistics are required in order to perform a more accurate analysis of trade flows through their decomposition in terms of value-added content, distinguished according to the sector/region of origin/destination. Our approach traces value added embedded in trade flows back to its origin or forward to its destination in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. A new module (available as a download with this paper) is introduced to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and used in a stylized scenario with 3 regions (the United States, the European Union and the Rest of the World) and 3 sectors (Manufactures, Agrifood and Services) where a free trade area between the European Union and the United States is simulated. Results show that the new version of the model (GTAP-VA) makes a useful contribution to trade policy analysis.
{"title":"GTAP-VA: An Integrated Tool for Global Value Chain Analysis","authors":"A. Antimiani, Ilaria Fusacchia, L. Salvatici","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.030202AF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.030202AF","url":null,"abstract":"Global Value Chains (GVCs) have transformed production across a broad range of goods and services worldwide. New trade statistics are required in order to perform a more accurate analysis of trade flows through their decomposition in terms of value-added content, distinguished according to the sector/region of origin/destination. Our approach traces value added embedded in trade flows back to its origin or forward to its destination in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. A new module (available as a download with this paper) is introduced to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and used in a stylized scenario with 3 regions (the United States, the European Union and the Rest of the World) and 3 sectors (Manufactures, Agrifood and Services) where a free trade area between the European Union and the United States is simulated. Results show that the new version of the model (GTAP-VA) makes a useful contribution to trade policy analysis.","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2018-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43845611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper proposes a parsimonious and intuitive way to incorporate Melitz-type firm heterogeneity in a CGE-model based on the conventional Armington trade structure. The Armington trade structure is extended with demand, supply, and trade cost shifters. Each sector can be modelled as either Melitz, Ethier-Krugman, or Armington, depending on the specification chosen for the shifters. The trade structure of the model can be calibrated based on two estimable parameters: the trade or tariff elasticity and the shape parameter of the size distribution of firms. With this setup fixed and iceberg trade costs are calibrated jointly based on observed import shares. The structure is incorporated within the standard GTAP model and changes to the GEMPACK code are discussed in detail. Changes in both trade values and welfare are decomposed. Experiments with global reductions in iceberg and fixed trade costs are simulated in a medium-size model with 11 countries, 11 sectors, and 6 production factors. The experiments show that the welfare effects are largest under Melitz, followed by Ethier-Krugman and Armington, although differences are modest.
{"title":"A Parsimonious Approach to Incorporate Firm Heterogeneity in CGE-Models","authors":"E. Bekkers, J. François","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.030201AF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.030201AF","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a parsimonious and intuitive way to incorporate Melitz-type firm heterogeneity in a CGE-model based on the conventional Armington trade structure. The Armington trade structure is extended with demand, supply, and trade cost shifters. Each sector can be modelled as either Melitz, Ethier-Krugman, or Armington, depending on the specification chosen for the shifters. The trade structure of the model can be calibrated based on two estimable parameters: the trade or tariff elasticity and the shape parameter of the size distribution of firms. With this setup fixed and iceberg trade costs are calibrated jointly based on observed import shares. The structure is incorporated within the standard GTAP model and changes to the GEMPACK code are discussed in detail. Changes in both trade values and welfare are decomposed. Experiments with global reductions in iceberg and fixed trade costs are simulated in a medium-size model with 11 countries, 11 sectors, and 6 production factors. The experiments show that the welfare effects are largest under Melitz, followed by Ethier-Krugman and Armington, although differences are modest.","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2018-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43970546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-25DOI: 10.21642/jgea.030201sm1f
E. Bekkers, J. François
This paper proposes a parsimonious and intuitive way to incorporate Melitz-type firm heterogeneity in a CGE-model based on the conventional Armington trade structure. The Armington trade structure is extended with demand, supply, and trade cost shifters. Each sector can be modelled as either Melitz, Ethier-Krugman, or Armington, depending on the specification chosen for the shifters. The trade structure of the model can be calibrated based on two estimable parameters: the trade or tariff elasticity and the shape parameter of the size distribution of firms. With this setup fixed and iceberg trade costs are calibrated jointly based on observed import shares. The structure is incorporated within the standard GTAP model and changes to the GEMPACK code are discussed in detail. Changes in both trade values and welfare are decomposed. Experiments with global reductions in iceberg and fixed trade costs are simulated in a medium-size model with 11 countries, 11 sectors, and 6 production factors. The experiments show that the welfare effects are largest under Melitz, followed by Ethier-Krugman and Armington, although differences are modest.
{"title":"A Parsimonious Approach to Incorporate Firm Heterogeneity in CGE-Models","authors":"E. Bekkers, J. François","doi":"10.21642/jgea.030201sm1f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/jgea.030201sm1f","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a parsimonious and intuitive way to incorporate Melitz-type firm heterogeneity in a CGE-model based on the conventional Armington trade structure. The Armington trade structure is extended with demand, supply, and trade cost shifters. Each sector can be modelled as either Melitz, Ethier-Krugman, or Armington, depending on the specification chosen for the shifters. The trade structure of the model can be calibrated based on two estimable parameters: the trade or tariff elasticity and the shape parameter of the size distribution of firms. With this setup fixed and iceberg trade costs are calibrated jointly based on observed import shares. The structure is incorporated within the standard GTAP model and changes to the GEMPACK code are discussed in detail. Changes in both trade values and welfare are decomposed. Experiments with global reductions in iceberg and fixed trade costs are simulated in a medium-size model with 11 countries, 11 sectors, and 6 production factors. The experiments show that the welfare effects are largest under Melitz, followed by Ethier-Krugman and Armington, although differences are modest.","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2018-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49281705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present CGEBox, an open-source and open-access framework for regional and global Computable General Equilibrium analysis realized in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) software. It flexibly depicts different nestings in production and factor supply, supports different functional forms for demand and choices in modeling international trade sectors (Armington, Armington plus Constant Elasticity of Transformation to distribute supply, Melitz and Krugman model). Either a regional household approach or separate accounts for government and potentially multiple private households with related closures are available. Supply and factor markets can be dis-aggregated to sub-regions and an implementation for GTAP-AEZ is available. We compare the layout of different well-known global and single country CGE models and discuss to what extent our flexible framework can replicate these layouts. In a structural sensitivity analysis, we compare major results under multi-lateral trade liberalization and endowment changes in one country for different model configurations. These reflect important structural differences between the chosen examples as well as additional features such as the Melitz model or endogenous capital stocks driven by investments in a comparative-static setting. We find relative limited differences in global and regional welfare between models based on the Armington assumption, even if other features differ such as closures, nestings or functional form in demand. A discussion on further joint development of such a framework leads to our summary and conclusions.
{"title":"CGEBox: A Flexible, Modular and Extendable Framework for CGE Analysis in GAMS","authors":"W. Britz, D. Mensbrugghe","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.030203AF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.030203AF","url":null,"abstract":"We present CGEBox, an open-source and open-access framework for regional and global Computable General Equilibrium analysis realized in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) software. It flexibly depicts different nestings in production and factor supply, supports different functional forms for demand and choices in modeling international trade sectors (Armington, Armington plus Constant Elasticity of Transformation to distribute supply, Melitz and Krugman model). Either a regional household approach or separate accounts for government and potentially multiple private households with related closures are available. Supply and factor markets can be dis-aggregated to sub-regions and an implementation for GTAP-AEZ is available. We compare the layout of different well-known global and single country CGE models and discuss to what extent our flexible framework can replicate these layouts. In a structural sensitivity analysis, we compare major results under multi-lateral trade liberalization and endowment changes in one country for different model configurations. These reflect important structural differences between the chosen examples as well as additional features such as the Melitz model or endogenous capital stocks driven by investments in a comparative-static setting. We find relative limited differences in global and regional welfare between models based on the Armington assumption, even if other features differ such as closures, nestings or functional form in demand. A discussion on further joint development of such a framework leads to our summary and conclusions.","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2018-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43003142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-06-30DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.030102SM1F
M. Chepeliev, Robert McDougall, D. Mensbrugghe
{"title":"Including Fossil-fuel Consumption Subsidies in the GTAP Data Base (Supplementary files)","authors":"M. Chepeliev, Robert McDougall, D. Mensbrugghe","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.030102SM1F","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.030102SM1F","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45560739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-06-30DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.030103SM1F
Kirby Ledvina, Niven Winchester, K. Strzepek, J. Reilly
{"title":"New Data for Representing Irrigated Agriculture in Economy-Wide Models (Supplementary files)","authors":"Kirby Ledvina, Niven Winchester, K. Strzepek, J. Reilly","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.030103SM1F","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.030103SM1F","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46867430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kirby Ledvina, Niven Winchester, K. Strzepek, J. Reilly
We develop a framework to represent the production value and expansion potential of irrigated land within economy-wide models, providing integrated assessment capabilities for energy-land-water interactions. The scope to expand irrigated land is quantified through irrigable land supply curves for 126 water regions globally based on water availability and the annual costs of irrigation infrastructure. Upgrades in irrigation infrastructure include (1) increasing water storage, (2) improving conveyance efficiency, and (3) improving irrigation efficiency. The value of production on irrigated and rainfed cropland is computed at both a 5 arcminute by 5 arcminute level and for the 140 regions and eight crop sectors in Version 9 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base using estimates of production quantities and prices from the year 2000. This work facilitates the representation of endogenous investment in irrigation infrastructure and allows for a more rigorous exploration of the regional and global impacts of water availability on land use, energy production, and economic activity.
{"title":"New Data for Representing Irrigated Agriculture in Economy-Wide Models","authors":"Kirby Ledvina, Niven Winchester, K. Strzepek, J. Reilly","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.030103AF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.030103AF","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a framework to represent the production value and expansion potential of irrigated land within economy-wide models, providing integrated assessment capabilities for energy-land-water interactions. The scope to expand irrigated land is quantified through irrigable land supply curves for 126 water regions globally based on water availability and the annual costs of irrigation infrastructure. Upgrades in irrigation infrastructure include (1) increasing water storage, (2) improving conveyance efficiency, and (3) improving irrigation efficiency. The value of production on irrigated and rainfed cropland is computed at both a 5 arcminute by 5 arcminute level and for the 140 regions and eight crop sectors in Version 9 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base using estimates of production quantities and prices from the year 2000. This work facilitates the representation of endogenous investment in irrigation infrastructure and allows for a more rigorous exploration of the regional and global impacts of water availability on land use, energy production, and economic activity.","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2018-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48791457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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