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Endogenous Capital Utilization in CGE Models: A Mongolian Application with the PEP-1-1 Model CGE模型中的内生资本利用——基于PEP-1-1模型的蒙古族应用
IF 2.5 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-24 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.070103af
Ragchaasuren Galindev, B. Decaluwé
This paper extends the PEP-1-1 model (a static computable general equilibrium, or CGE, model for small open economies) to incorporate variable capital utilization. It argues that CGE models with fixed sectoral capital may underestimate the impact of shocks in the short run by ignoring industries’ adjustment of their capital utilization rate (or intensity of use) in response to changes in their economic environment. The model is calibrated to a 2014 Mongolian social accounting matrix. An increase in the export price of coal is considered as a shock for demonstration purposes. Compared to the standard PEP-1-1 model the impact of the shock is larger in the expanded model. In addition, the results of the PEP-1-1 model are derived as a special case of the model involving capital utilization.
本文扩展了PEP-1-1模型(小型开放经济体的静态可计算一般均衡或CGE模型),将可变资本利用率纳入其中。它认为,具有固定部门资本的CGE模型可能低估了短期冲击的影响,因为它忽略了行业对其资本利用率(或使用强度)的调整,以应对其经济环境的变化。该模型根据2014年蒙古社会核算矩阵进行了校准。出于示范目的,煤炭出口价格的上涨被认为是一种冲击。与标准PEP-1-1型号相比,扩展型号的冲击影响更大。此外,作为涉及资本利用的模型的特例,推导了PEP-1-1模型的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Disaggregating Agro-Food Sectors in the GTAP Data Base GTAP数据库中的农粮部门分类
IF 2.5 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-24 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.070102af
W. Britz
We discuss the construction of the GTAP-AGROFOOD database for CGE modelling which is consistent with the standard GTAP Data Base Version 10a (Aguiar et al. 2019). GTAP-AGROFOOD departs from the full detail of 141 regions, 65 products and 8 factors in GTAP, by introducing 51 additional agro-food products and sectors in lieu of 11 original GTAP agro-food products, thereby yielding a database with 105 products. Such additional detail can improve and enrich, for instance, analysis of trade, bio-economy or climate change mitigation or adaptation issues. It also eases linkage to other, more detailed data sets, such as for nutrition accounting or irrigation water use. The main data sources used are the FABIO Multi-Regional Input-Output Database (Bruckner et al. 2019) which reports on production, land, seed, feed, and food use, mainly for primary agricultural products, and market balances for dairy products from FAOSTAT. They are combined with TASTE V10a (Pelikan et al. 2020) which provides bilateral trade and tariffs revenues at the level of tariff lines. The balancing methodology which ensures consistency with the GTAP Data Base is based on the linear loss based split utility of CGEBox (Britz 2021).
我们讨论了GTAP- agrofood数据库的构建,该数据库与标准GTAP database Version 10a (Aguiar et al. 2019)一致。GTAP- agrofood从GTAP中141个地区、65种产品和8个因素的全部细节出发,通过引入51个额外的农产品和部门来代替原来的11个GTAP农产品,从而产生一个包含105种产品的数据库。这些额外的细节可以改善和丰富对贸易、生物经济或减缓或适应气候变化问题的分析。它还简化了与其他更详细的数据集的联系,例如营养核算或灌溉用水。使用的主要数据来源是FABIO多区域投入产出数据库(Bruckner等人,2019年),该数据库报告了主要用于初级农产品的生产、土地、种子、饲料和粮食使用情况,以及来自粮农组织统计数据库的乳制品市场平衡情况。它们与TASTE V10a (Pelikan et al. 2020)相结合,提供关税细目水平的双边贸易和关税收入。确保与GTAP数据库一致性的平衡方法是基于CGEBox (Britz 2021)的基于线性损失的分割实用程序。
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引用次数: 1
Incorporating Nutritional Accounts to the GTAP Data Base 将营养账户纳入GTAP数据库
IF 2.5 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-29 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.070101af
M. Chepeliev
With a wide range of implications for welfare, food security, land use, trade and the environment, nutrition-related policies pose complex questions that should be assessed using an approach that properly accounts for all the involved interactions. Widely used partial equilibrium models fail to properly account for the post-farmgate food value chains. At the same time, most of the available integrated assessment and computable general equilibrium models have some major limitations in terms of the consistent representation of nutritional data flows. In this paper, we address some of the limitations identified in the literature and develop an approach for incorporating nutritional accounts into the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base, tracing quantities of food, calories, fats, proteins and carbohydrates along the value chains. We further showcase how the developed nutritional database can be linked to the standard GTAP model. A sample application is developed in the paper to provide an assessment of the impact of import tariff elimination on nutritional flows.
与营养有关的政策对福利、粮食安全、土地使用、贸易和环境具有广泛的影响,因此提出了复杂的问题,应当采用适当考虑到所有有关相互作用的方法加以评估。广泛使用的部分均衡模型不能正确地解释农场后的食品价值链。与此同时,大多数现有的综合评估和可计算的一般平衡模型在营养数据流的一致表示方面存在一些重大局限性。在本文中,我们解决了文献中发现的一些局限性,并开发了一种将营养账户纳入全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)数据库的方法,跟踪价值链上的食物、卡路里、脂肪、蛋白质和碳水化合物的数量。我们进一步展示了开发的营养数据库如何与标准GTAP模型相关联。本文开发了一个示例应用程序,以评估取消进口关税对营养流动的影响。
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引用次数: 5
Disaggregating the Vegetables, Fruits and Nuts Sector to the Tariff Line in the GTAP-HS Framework 在GTAP-HS框架内将蔬菜、水果和坚果分类为关税细目
IF 2.5 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-06-15 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.060103AF
M. Chepeliev, A. Golub, T. Hertel, Wajiha Saeed, Jayson Beckman
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models provide valuable insights into economy-wide and aggregate sectoral impacts of trade policies. However, when it comes to the assessment of specific interventions, the level of aggregation in these models is often deemed too coarse to inform negotiations. For example, in the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base, all vegetables, fruits and nuts – over hundred individual commodities – are represented under one sector. Analysis at the tariff line level is typically provided by partial equilibrium (PE) models, which cannot, however, capture economy-wide effects. In this paper, we contribute to the development of the GTAP-HS framework, which comprises disaggregated values of output, trade flows and domestic absorption with supporting model components nested within the standard GTAP GE model. We construct the GTAP-HS database with GTAP vegetables, fruits and nuts sector disaggregated into 79 commodities. We apply this modelling framework to the assessment of the ongoing trade frictions between the United States and its trading partners. We find that there are significant advantages to using this nested approach to trade policy analysis, including possibilities of the trade policies assessment at the tariff line, representation of the commodity-specific substitution and avoidance of the ‘false competition’ critique.
可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型为贸易政策对整个经济和总体部门的影响提供了有价值的见解。然而,在评估具体干预措施时,这些模型中的汇总水平往往被认为过于粗糙,无法为谈判提供信息。例如,在全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)数据库中,所有蔬菜、水果和坚果——超过100种单一商品——都在一个部门下表示。关税线层面的分析通常由部分均衡(PE)模型提供,但该模型无法捕捉整个经济的影响。在本文中,我们为GTAP-HS框架的开发做出了贡献,该框架包括产出、贸易流和国内吸收的分解值,以及嵌套在标准GTAP-GE模型中的支持模型组件。我们构建了GTAP-HS数据库,将GTAP蔬菜、水果和坚果部门分解为79种商品。我们将这一建模框架应用于评估美国与其贸易伙伴之间正在发生的贸易摩擦。我们发现,使用这种嵌套方法进行贸易政策分析具有显著优势,包括在关税线上进行贸易政策评估的可能性、特定商品替代的代表性以及避免“虚假竞争”批评。
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引用次数: 1
Comparing Penalty Functions in Balancing and Dis-aggregating Social Accounting Matrices 社会核算矩阵平衡与分解中惩罚函数的比较
IF 2.5 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-06-15 DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.060102AF
W. Britz
Constructing a balanced and sufficiently detailed Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a necessary step for any work with Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. Even when starting with a given SAM, researchers might wish to develop their own, more detailed variants for a specific study by dis-aggregating sectors and products, a process termed splitting the SAM. We review three approaches for balancing and splitting a SAM: Cross-Entropy (CE), a Highest Posterior Density (HPD) estimator resulting in a quadratic loss penalty function, and a linear loss penalty function. The exercise considers upper and lower bounds on the (new) SAM entries, different weights for penalizing deviations from a priori information, and unknown row or column totals, to give the user flexibility in controlling outcomes. The approaches are assessed first by a systematic Monte-Carlo experiment. It re-balances smaller SAMs, after errors with known distributions are added. Here we find quite limited numerical differences between the CE and quadratic loss approaches. The CE approach was however considerably slower than the other candidates. Second, we tested the three approaches for dis-aggregating the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data base to provide, as an example, further agri-food detail. In such empirical applications, the distribution of the errors of the new SAM entries is typically not known. As in the SAM balancing exercise, we use CONOPT4 as a multi-purpose (non)linear solver which can be also be employed to solve the CGE model itself. For comparison, we add the specialized Linear and Quadratic Programming (QP) solvers CPLEDX and GUROBI. As in the Monte-Carlo experiment, the differences in results between the three approaches were moderate. The specialized solvers require very little time to solve the linear and quadratic loss problems. However, they did not achieve the same, very high accuracy as CONOPT4 for the quadratic loss problem. The CE problem could take longer by a factor of 100 or more, compared to a linear or quadratic loss approach solved with the specialized solvers. We conclude that using linear or quadratic loss approaches, especially combined with a specialized solver, are the most suitable candidates for larger SAM splitting / balancing problems. Additionally, we present a fast and accurate data processing chain to yield a benchmark data set for a CGE model from the GTAP Data Base which involves filtering out small cost, expenditure and revenue shares, and allows users to introduce further product and sectoral detail based on user provided information.
构建一个平衡且足够详细的社会核算矩阵(SAM)是任何使用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型的工作的必要步骤。即使从给定的SAM开始,研究人员也可能希望通过分解部门和产品来为特定研究开发自己的、更详细的变体,这一过程被称为拆分SAM。我们回顾了平衡和拆分SAM的三种方法:交叉熵(CE)、产生二次损失惩罚函数的最高后验密度(HPD)估计器,以及线性损失惩罚函数。该练习考虑了(新)SAM条目的上限和下限、惩罚与先验信息的偏差的不同权重以及未知的行或列总数,以使用户在控制结果方面具有灵活性。这些方法首先通过系统的蒙特卡罗实验进行评估。在添加了已知分布的错误后,它会重新平衡较小的SAM。在这里,我们发现CE和二次损失方法之间的数值差异非常有限。然而,行政长官的做法较其他候选人慢得多。其次,我们测试了三种分解全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)数据库的方法,以提供进一步的农业食品细节为例。在这样的经验应用中,新SAM条目的误差分布通常是未知的。与SAM平衡练习一样,我们使用CONOPT4作为多用途(非线性)求解器,也可用于求解CGE模型本身。为了进行比较,我们添加了专门的线性和二次规划(QP)求解器CPLEDX和GUROBI。与蒙特卡洛实验一样,三种方法之间的结果差异不大。专门的求解器只需要很少的时间来解决线性和二次损失问题。然而,对于二次损失问题,它们并没有达到与CONOPT4相同的、非常高的精度。与使用专业求解器解决的线性或二次损失方法相比,CE问题可能需要更长的时间,达到100倍或更多。我们得出的结论是,使用线性或二次损失方法,特别是与专门的求解器相结合,是更大SAM分裂/平衡问题的最合适候选者。此外,我们提供了一个快速准确的数据处理链,以从GTAP数据库中生成CGE模型的基准数据集,该数据集涉及筛选出较小的成本、支出和收入份额,并允许用户根据用户提供的信息介绍进一步的产品和部门细节。
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引用次数: 2
A Comparison of Approaches to Modelling Non-Tariff Measures 非关税措施建模方法的比较
IF 2.5 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-06-15 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.060101af
T. Walmsley, Anna Strutt
Non-tariff measures (NTMs) are a prominent feature of many recent free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations. The implementation of NTMs within computable general equilibrium (CGE) models has been relatively simple to date, with modelers generally incorporating NTMs as tariff equivalents via export or import taxes or as import-augmenting technological (iceberg) change. Our study compares and contrasts two new methods with the traditional mechanisms used. The first new method is the willingness to pay method developed by Walmsley and Minor (2020); and the second, introduced here, provides a new mechanism for adjusting the exporters’ production costs directly, referred to as the export cost method. We find that the choice of mechanism can have important consequences for the estimated impact of changes in NTMs, with mechanisms that raise productivity leading to larger changes in real GDP than those that treat NTMs as associated with economic rents or demand shocks. We emphasize the importance of careful consideration being given to the nature of the NTMs being investigated, the econometric estimates of the associated trade costs, and the CGE model mechanisms being used to assess the impacts of changes in NTMs.
非关税措施是近年来许多自由贸易协定(FTA)谈判的突出特点。迄今为止,在可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型中实施ntm相对简单,建模者通常通过出口或进口税或进口增强技术(冰山)变化将ntm纳入关税等价物。我们的研究将两种新方法与传统机制进行了比较和对比。第一种新方法是Walmsley和Minor(2020)开发的支付意愿法;第二种方法提供了一种直接调整出口商生产成本的新机制,称为出口成本法。我们发现,机制的选择可以对ntm变化的估计影响产生重要影响,与那些将ntm视为经济租金或需求冲击的机制相比,提高生产率的机制导致实际GDP的变化更大。我们强调仔细考虑正在调查的非国家贸易机制的性质、相关贸易成本的计量经济学估计以及用于评估非国家贸易机制变化影响的CGE模型机制的重要性。
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引用次数: 4
Love of variety in trade models with product differentiation 喜欢多样化的贸易模式和产品差异化
IF 2.5 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-12-11 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.050201af
Kazuhiko Oyamada
This paper explores the key role of importer's love of variety in applied general equilibrium models featuring product differentiation. The paper compares the Armington-, Krugman-, and Melitz-type trade specifications. Experimental simulations with the model reveal that as love of variety weakens, based on the empirical evidence revealed by Ardelean (2006), the models with homogeneous firms may generate larger welfare gains than the Melitz-type heterogeneous firm model. This stands in marked contrast to the findings of Melitz and Redding (2013), based on the assumption of maximum valuation on increasing variety.
本文探讨了进口商对多样性的热爱在以产品差异化为特征的应用一般均衡模型中的关键作用。本文比较了Armington型、Krugman型和Melitz型贸易规范。该模型的实验模拟表明,根据Ardelean(2006)揭示的经验证据,随着对多样性的热爱减弱,同质企业的模型可能比Melitz型异质企业模型产生更大的福利收益。这与Melitz和Redding(2013)的研究结果形成了鲜明对比,后者基于对不断增加的品种的最大估值假设。
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引用次数: 1
Land use in computable general equilibrium models 可计算一般均衡模型中的土地利用
IF 2.5 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-12-11 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.050202sm1f
F. Taheripour, Xin Zhao, Mark Horridge, Farid Farrokhi, W. Tyner
Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) functions are widely used to allocate land across uses in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. These models fail to maintain the physical area of land in balance. This paper examines this issue. It shows that heterogeneity in land prices (rents) is the main source of imbalance in land area, not the curvature of the CET function. It also shows that the available approaches that restore balance to physical area either introduce ad hoc adjustments in land allocation or undermine the conventional welfare assessments of the CET results. An alternative approach involves implementing stochastic productivity distribution functions (e.g. Frechet) to allocate land among uses maintain area of land in balance, thereby respecting conventional welfare assessments. A particular feature of these models is that the aggregate production functions of the land using sectors exhibit decreasing returns to scale even if land is the only factor of production. This approach also requires equalization of land rents across uses. This is not consistent with empirical observation. Both the CET and stochastic methods consider the implicit opportunity costs of moving land across uses but fail to take into account preparation costs associated with land use conversion.
在可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型中,常弹性转换(CET)函数被广泛用于土地的跨用途分配。这些模型无法保持陆地物理面积的平衡。本文探讨了这一问题。研究表明,土地价格(租金)的异质性是土地面积失衡的主要原因,而不是CET函数的曲率。它还表明,恢复自然区域平衡的现有方法要么引入土地分配的临时调整,要么破坏CET结果的传统福利评估。另一种方法是执行随机生产力分配函数(例如Frechet),在不同用途之间分配土地,保持土地面积的平衡,从而尊重传统的福利评估。这些模型的一个特点是,即使土地是唯一的生产要素,土地使用部门的总生产函数也表现出规模收益递减。这种方法还需要在不同用途之间均摊地租。这与经验观察不符。CET和随机方法都考虑了跨用途迁移土地的隐性机会成本,但未能考虑与土地利用转换相关的准备成本。
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引用次数: 0
GTAP- Power Database: Version 10 GTAP-电源数据库:版本10
IF 2.5 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-12-11 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.050203af
M. Chepeliev
This paper documents changes introduced to version 10 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Power (GTAP-Power 10) Data Base construction process relative to the GTAP-Power build stream developed in Peters (2016). First, in Peters (2016) output of the electricity and heat generation sector was split into different technologies using electricity generation data only. We use heat and electricity generation volumes to provide a more representative sectoral split and achieve a better concordance with GTAP 10 Data Base sectoral definitions. Second, we introduce data on country and year-specific shares of transmission and distribution costs in electricity price for 80 countries. In the GTAP-Power 9 Data Base this cost share was assumed to be uniform across all countries and regions. Finally, for every reference year, we update the levelized cost of electricity generation. We first compare GTAP-Power 9 Data Base construction results with and without corresponding changes. We then construct the GTAP-Power 10 Data Base and showcase how it can be used to estimate carbon dioxide emissions embodied in final consumption of electricity generated by different technologies.
本文记录了全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)Power(GTAP Power 10)数据库构建过程第10版相对于Peters(2016)开发的GTAP Power构建流的更改。首先,在Peters(2016)中,仅使用发电数据将发电和供热部门的产出划分为不同的技术。我们使用热量和发电量来提供更具代表性的部门划分,并实现与GTAP 10数据库部门定义的更好一致性。其次,我们介绍了80个国家输电和配电成本在电价中的具体国家和年份份额的数据。在GTAP Power 9数据库中,假设所有国家和地区的成本份额是一致的。最后,对于每个参考年,我们都会更新发电的平准成本。我们首先比较了GTAP Power 9数据库的构建结果(有相应的更改和没有相应的更改)。然后,我们构建了GTAP Power 10数据库,并展示了如何使用它来估计不同技术产生的最终电力消耗中的二氧化碳排放量。
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引用次数: 7
Aggregation of gridded emulated projections at the national or regional level: rainfed and irrigated crop yields and irrigation water requirements 国家或区域一级网格模拟预测的汇总:雨养和灌溉作物产量和灌溉用水需求
IF 2.5 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-12-11 DOI: 10.21642/jgea.050204sm1f
É. Blanc
This article and companion code is an update to Blanc (2017b) which provided a tool to use statistical emulators of global gridded crop models described in Blanc and Sultan (2015) and Blanc (2017) and aggregated the projections at the regional level. This new version includes, in addition to rainfed yields of maize, rice, soybean and wheat, irrigated crops yields as well as associated irrigation water requirements as estimated in Blanc (2020).
本文和配套代码是Blanc (2017b)的更新,它提供了一个工具,可以使用Blanc和Sultan(2015)和Blanc(2017)中描述的全球网格化作物模型的统计模拟器,并在区域层面汇总预测。这个新版本除了包括玉米、水稻、大豆和小麦的雨养产量外,还包括Blanc(2020)中估计的灌溉作物产量以及相关的灌溉需水量。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Global Economic Analysis
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