This paper discusses various aspects of economic modelling of free trade agreements (FTAs) raised directly or indirectly by high-level policymakers and the general public with an interest in trade, including explicit free trade critics. It starts with a brief description of the basic features of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, their gradual adaptation to modern trade theory and some of the criticism they have been subject to. The paper then discusses the underlying workhorse data and points to a few critical areas which are in need of further efforts to increase the quality of model based simulations. It also describes on-going efforts and past projects that have been undertaken to improve the tools available to modelers. Some necessary practical modelling choices are discussed in terms of their impact on the modelling results followed by some thoughts on how the results of relatively complex technical undertakings such as CGE modelling exercises could be presented to a broad audience.
{"title":"Reflections on the Economic Modelling of Free Trade Agreements","authors":"L. Nilsson","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.030104AF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.030104AF","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses various aspects of economic modelling of free trade agreements (FTAs) raised directly or indirectly by high-level policymakers and the general public with an interest in trade, including explicit free trade critics. It starts with a brief description of the basic features of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, their gradual adaptation to modern trade theory and some of the criticism they have been subject to. The paper then discusses the underlying workhorse data and points to a few critical areas which are in need of further efforts to increase the quality of model based simulations. It also describes on-going efforts and past projects that have been undertaken to improve the tools available to modelers. Some necessary practical modelling choices are discussed in terms of their impact on the modelling results followed by some thoughts on how the results of relatively complex technical undertakings such as CGE modelling exercises could be presented to a broad audience.","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2018-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49415065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Historically fossil-fuel consumption subsidies have been one of the most widely used energy and public policy interventions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2014 they amounted to $493 billion worldwide, which is equivalent to 0.6% of global GDP. Their contribution is even more significant for most energy exporting countries, in many cases exceeding 5-15% of national GDP. However, despite their large magnitude, fossil-fuel consumption subsidies are not explicitly represented in most global economic databases and models, including the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base, as they are generally not captured by the input-output framework. In this paper, we present methods to integrate pre-tax fossil-fuel consumption subsidies to the GTAP Data Base and produce a version of the GTAP 9.2 Data Base that includes these subsidies. The proposed approach includes updates of energy commodity market prices and corresponding tax rates, within the GTAP Data Base build process. Including fossil-fuel consumption subsidies in the GTAP Data Base provides several benefits for energy and environmental policy simulations, including availability of an additional policy instrument and more consistent representation of energy prices.
{"title":"Including Fossil-fuel Consumption Subsidies in the GTAP Data Base","authors":"M. Chepeliev, Robert McDougall, D. Mensbrugghe","doi":"10.21642/JGEA.030102AF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.030102AF","url":null,"abstract":"Historically fossil-fuel consumption subsidies have been one of the most widely used energy and public policy interventions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2014 they amounted to $493 billion worldwide, which is equivalent to 0.6% of global GDP. Their contribution is even more significant for most energy exporting countries, in many cases exceeding 5-15% of national GDP. However, despite their large magnitude, fossil-fuel consumption subsidies are not explicitly represented in most global economic databases and models, including the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base, as they are generally not captured by the input-output framework. In this paper, we present methods to integrate pre-tax fossil-fuel consumption subsidies to the GTAP Data Base and produce a version of the GTAP 9.2 Data Base that includes these subsidies. The proposed approach includes updates of energy commodity market prices and corresponding tax rates, within the GTAP Data Base build process. Including fossil-fuel consumption subsidies in the GTAP Data Base provides several benefits for energy and environmental policy simulations, including availability of an additional policy instrument and more consistent representation of energy prices.","PeriodicalId":44607,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2018-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42771615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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