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On Performance of Two-Parameter Gompertz-Based X¯ Control Charts 基于双参数gompertz的X¯控制图性能研究
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.1155/2020/8081507
J. Adewara, Kayode S. Adekeye, O. L. Aako
In this paper, two methods of control chart were proposed to monitor the process based on the two-parameter Gompertz distribution. The proposed methods are the Gompertz Shewhart approach and Gompertz skewness correction method. A simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed chart with that of the skewness correction approach for various sample sizes. Furthermore, real-life data on thickness of paint on refrigerators which are nonnormal data that have attributes of a Gompertz distribution were used to illustrate the proposed control chart. The coverage probability (CP), control limit interval (CLI), and average run length (ARL) were used to measure the performance of the two methods. It was found that the Gompertz exact method where the control limits are calculated through the percentiles of the underline distribution has the highest coverage probability, while the Gompertz Shewhart approach and Gompertz skewness correction method have the least CLI and ARL. Hence, the two-parameter Gompertz-based methods would detect out-of-control faster for Gompertz-based charts.
本文提出了两种基于双参数Gompertz分布的过程监控控制图方法。所提出的方法是Gompertz-Shewhart方法和Gompertz偏度校正方法。进行了模拟研究,以比较所提出的图表与偏度校正方法在不同样本量下的性能。此外,冰箱油漆厚度的真实数据是具有Gompertz分布属性的非正态数据,用于说明所提出的控制图。使用覆盖概率(CP)、控制极限区间(CLI)和平均运行长度(ARL)来衡量这两种方法的性能。研究发现,通过下划线分布的百分位数计算控制极限的Gompertz精确方法具有最高的覆盖概率,而Gompertz-Shewhart方法和Gompertz-偏斜校正方法具有最小的CLI和ARL。因此,对于基于Gompertz的图表,基于两参数Gompertz-的方法将更快地检测失控。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative Study between Generalized Maximum Entropy and Bayes Methods to Estimate the Four Parameter Weibull Growth Model 广义最大熵法与贝叶斯法估计四参数威布尔增长模型的比较研究
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2020-01-14 DOI: 10.1155/2020/7967345
Saifaldin Hashim Kamar, Basim Shlaibah Msallam
The Weibull growth model is an important model especially for describing the growth instability; therefore, in this paper, three methods, namely, generalized maximum entropy, Bayes, and maximum a posteriori, for estimating the four parameter Weibull growth model have been presented and compared. To achieve this aim, it is necessary to use a simulation technique to generate the samples and perform the required comparisons, using varying sample sizes (10, 12, 15, 20, 25, and 30) and models depending on the standard deviation (0.5). It has been shown from the computational results that the Bayes method gives the best estimates.
威布尔增长模型是描述增长不稳定性的一个重要模型;因此,本文提出并比较了广义最大熵、贝叶斯和最大后验三种估计四参数威布尔增长模型的方法。为了实现这一目标,有必要使用模拟技术来生成样本并执行所需的比较,使用不同的样本大小(10、12、15、20、25和30)和模型,这取决于标准偏差(0.5)。计算结果表明,贝叶斯方法给出了最好的估计。
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引用次数: 3
Parametric Methodologies for Detecting Changes in Maximum Temperature of Tlaxco, Tlaxcala, México 检测墨西哥特拉克斯科、特拉斯卡拉最高温度变化的参数方法
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2019-12-16 DOI: 10.1155/2019/3580692
Silvia Herrera Cortés, Bulmaro Juárez Hernández, Víctor Hugo Vázquez Guevara, H. A. Cruz Suárez
In this paper, comparison results of parametric methodologies of change points, applied to maximum temperature records from the municipality of Tlaxco, Tlaxcala, Mexico, are presented. Methodologies considered are likelihood ratio test, score test, and binary segmentation (BS), pruned exact linear time (PELT), and segment neighborhood (SN). In order to compare such methodologies, a quality analysis of the data was performed; in addition, lost data were estimated with linear regression, and finally, SARIMA models were adjusted.
本文介绍了应用于墨西哥特拉斯卡拉市特拉斯科市最高气温记录的变化点参数方法的比较结果。考虑的方法有似然比检验、分数检验和二元分割(BS)、修剪精确线性时间(PELT)和分割邻域(SN)。为了比较这些方法,对数据进行了质量分析;此外,采用线性回归方法对损失数据进行估计,最后对SARIMA模型进行了调整。
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引用次数: 0
The L-Curve Criterion as a Model Selection Tool in PLS Regression L-曲线准则作为PLS回归中的模型选择工具
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2019-10-30 DOI: 10.1155/2019/3129769
Abdelmounaim Kerkri, J. Allal, Zoubir Zarrouk
Partial least squares (PLS) regression is an alternative to the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, used in the presence of multicollinearity. As with any other modelling method, PLS regression requires a reliable model selection tool. Cross validation (CV) is the most commonly used tool with many advantages in both preciseness and accuracy, but it also has some drawbacks; therefore, we will use L-curve criterion as an alternative, given that it takes into consideration the shrinking nature of PLS. A theoretical justification for the use of L-curve criterion is presented as well as an application on both simulated and real data. The application shows how this criterion generally outperforms cross validation and generalized cross validation (GCV) in mean squared prediction error and computational efficiency.
偏最小二乘(PLS)回归是普通最小二乘(OLS)回归的替代方法,用于多重共线性的存在。与任何其他建模方法一样,PLS回归需要一个可靠的模型选择工具。交叉验证(CV)是最常用的工具,在准确性和精确性上都有很多优点,但它也有一些缺点;因此,考虑到PLS的收缩特性,我们将使用l曲线准则作为替代方案。提出了使用l曲线准则的理论依据以及在模拟和实际数据上的应用。应用表明,该准则在均方预测误差和计算效率方面普遍优于交叉验证和广义交叉验证(GCV)。
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引用次数: 2
Analytically Simple and Computationally Efficient Results for the GIX/Geo/c Queues GIX/Geo/c队列的简单解析和高效计算结果
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2019-09-03 DOI: 10.1155/2019/6480139
M. Chaudhry, James J. Kim, A. Banik
A simple solution to determine the distributions of queue-lengths at different observation epochs for the model GIX/Geo/c is presented. In the past, various discrete-time queueing models, particularly the multiserver bulk-arrival queues, have been solved using complicated methods that lead to incomplete results. The purpose of this paper is to use the roots method to solve the model GIX/Geo/c that leads to a result that is analytically elegant and computationally efficient. This method works well even for the case when the inter-batch-arrival times follow heavy-tailed distributions. The roots of the underlying characteristic equation form the basis for all distributions of queue-lengths at different time epochs.
给出了一种确定模型GIX/Geo/c在不同观测时段的排队长度分布的简单解。在过去,各种离散时间队列模型,特别是多服务器批量到达队列,一直使用复杂的方法来解决,导致结果不完整。本文的目的是使用根法求解模型GIX/Geo/c,从而得到解析优雅且计算效率高的结果。这种方法即使在批间到达时间遵循重尾分布的情况下也能很好地工作。底层特征方程的根构成了不同时间点上所有队列长度分布的基础。
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引用次数: 5
Analytically Explicit Results for the Distribution of the Number of Customers Served during a Busy Period for Special Cases of the M/G/1 Queue M/G/1队列特殊情况下繁忙时段服务人数分布的解析显式结果
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2019-08-27 DOI: 10.1155/2019/7398658
M. Chaudhry, V. Goswami
This paper presents analytically explicit results for the distribution of the number of customers served during a busy period for special cases of the M/G/1 queues when initiated with m customers. The functional equation for the Laplace transform of the number of customers served during a busy period is widely known, but several researchers state that, in general, it is not easy to invert it except for some simple cases such as M/M/1 and M/D/1 queues. Using the Lagrange inversion theorem, we give an elegant solution to this equation. We obtain the distribution of the number of customers served during a busy period for various service-time distributions such as exponential, deterministic, Erlang-k, gamma, chi-square, inverse Gaussian, generalized Erlang, matrix exponential, hyperexponential, uniform, Coxian, phase-type, Markov-modulated Poisson process, and interrupted Poisson process. Further, we also provide computational results using our method. The derivations are very fast and robust due to the lucidity of the expressions.
本文给出了M/G/1队列在有M个顾客时的特殊情况下繁忙时段服务顾客数分布的解析式结果。在繁忙时段服务的顾客数量的拉普拉斯变换的函数方程是众所周知的,但一些研究人员指出,一般来说,除了一些简单的情况,如M/M/1和M/D/1队列,它不容易反演。利用拉格朗日反演定理,给出了该方程的一个优美解。我们得到了各种服务时间分布,如指数分布、确定性分布、Erlang-k分布、gamma分布、卡方分布、逆高斯分布、广义Erlang分布、矩阵指数分布、超指数分布、均匀分布、Coxian分布、相型分布、马尔可夫调制泊松过程分布和中断泊松过程分布。此外,我们还使用我们的方法给出了计算结果。由于表达式的清晰性,推导非常快速和健壮。
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引用次数: 2
Hierarchical Models and Tuning of Random Walk Metropolis Algorithms 随机游走大都会算法的分层模型和调优
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2019-08-26 DOI: 10.1155/2019/8740426
M. Bédard
We obtain weak convergence and optimal scaling results for the random walk Metropolis algorithm with a Gaussian proposal distribution. The sampler is applied to hierarchical target distributions, which form the building block of many Bayesian analyses. The global asymptotically optimal proposal variance derived may be computed as a function of the specific target distribution considered. We also introduce the concept of locally optimal tunings, i.e., tunings that depend on the current position of the Markov chain. The theorems are proved by studying the generator of the first and second components of the algorithm and verifying their convergence to the generator of a modified RWM algorithm and a diffusion process, respectively. The rate at which the algorithm explores its state space is optimized by studying the speed measure of the limiting diffusion process. We illustrate the theory with two examples. Applications of these results on simulated and real data are also presented.
我们得到了具有高斯建议分布的随机漫步Metropolis算法的弱收敛性和最优缩放结果。采样器应用于分层目标分布,这构成了许多贝叶斯分析的基石。所导出的全局渐近最优建议方差可以计算为所考虑的特定目标分布的函数。我们还引入了局部最优调谐的概念,即依赖于马尔可夫链当前位置的调谐。通过研究算法的第一分量和第二分量的生成器,并分别验证了它们收敛于改进的RWM算法的生成器和扩散过程的生成器,证明了这些定理。通过研究极限扩散过程的速度度量,优化了算法探索状态空间的速度。我们用两个例子来说明这个理论。文中还介绍了这些结果在模拟和实际数据上的应用。
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引用次数: 4
Quantile Regression and Beyond in Statistical Analysis of Data 数据统计分析中的分位数回归及其超越
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2019-07-22 DOI: 10.1155/2019/2635306
Rahim Alhamzawi, Keming Yu, Himel Mallick, PhD, FASA
Regression is used to quantify the relationship between response variables and some covariates of interest. Standard mean regression has been one of the most applied statistical methods formany decades. It aims to estimate the conditional expectation of the response variable given the covariates. However, quantile regression is desired if conditional quantile functions such as median regression are of interest. Quantile regression has emerged as a useful supplement to standard mean regression. Also, unlike mean regression, quantile regression is robust to outliers in observations and makes very minimal assumptions on the error distribution and thus is able to accommodate nonnormal errors. e value of “going beyond the standard mean regression” has been illustrated in many scientific subjects including economics, ecology, education, finance, survival analysis, microarray study, growth charts, and so on. In addition, inference on quantiles can accommodate transformation of the outcome of the interest without the problems encountered in standard mean regression. Overall, quantile regression offers a more complete statisticalmodel than standardmean regression and now has widespread applications. ere has been a great deal of recent interest in Bayesian approaches to quantile regression models and the applications of these models. In these approaches, uncertain parameters are assigned prior distributions based on expert judgment and updated using observations through the Bayes formula to obtain posterior probability distributions. In this special issue on “Quantile regression and beyond in statistical analysis of data,” we have invited a few papers that address such issues. e first paper of this special issue addresses a fully Bayesian approach that estimates multiple quantile levels simultaneously in one step by using the asymmetric Laplace distribution for the errors, which can be viewed as a mixture of an exponential and a scaled normal distribution. is method enables characterizing the likelihood function by all quantile levels of interest using the relation between two distinct quantile levels. e second paper presents a new link function for distribution–specific quantile regression based on vector generalized linear and additive models to directly model specified quantile levels. e third paper presents a novel modeling approach to study the effect of predictors of various types on the conditional distribution of the response variable. e fourth paper introduces the regularized quantile regression method using pairwise absolute clustering and sparsity penalty, extending from mean regression to quantile regression setting. e final paper of this special issue uses Bayesian quantile regression for studying the retirement consumption puzzle, which is defined as the drop in consumption upon retirement, using the cross-sectional data of the Malaysian Household Expenditure Survey 2009/2010.
回归用于量化响应变量和一些感兴趣的协变量之间的关系。标准均值回归是近几十年来应用最广泛的统计方法之一。它旨在估计给定协变量的响应变量的条件期望。然而,如果对条件分位数函数(如中值回归)感兴趣,则需要分位数回归。分位数回归已成为标准均值回归的一种有用补充。此外,与均值回归不同,分位数回归对观测值中的异常值具有鲁棒性,对误差分布的假设非常小,因此能够适应非正态误差。“超越标准均值回归”的价值已经在经济学、生态学、教育学、金融学、生存分析、微阵列研究、增长图等许多科学学科中得到了阐述。此外,分位数推断可以适应兴趣结果的转换,而不存在标准均值回归中遇到的问题。总的来说,分位数回归提供了一个比标准均值回归更完整的统计模型,现在有广泛的应用。最近,人们对分位数回归模型的贝叶斯方法及其应用产生了很大的兴趣。在这些方法中,基于专家判断为不确定参数分配先验分布,并通过贝叶斯公式使用观测值进行更新,以获得后验概率分布。在这期关于“数据统计分析中的分位数回归及其超越”的特刊中,我们邀请了几篇关于这些问题的论文。本期特刊的第一篇论文介绍了一种完全贝叶斯方法,该方法通过使用误差的不对称拉普拉斯分布,在一步中同时估计多个分位数水平,可以将其视为指数和比例正态分布的混合。is方法能够利用两个不同分位数之间的关系,通过感兴趣的所有分位数来表征似然函数。第二篇论文基于向量广义线性和加性模型,提出了一种新的用于分布特定分位数回归的链接函数,以直接对指定的分位数水平进行建模。第三篇论文提出了一种新的建模方法来研究各种类型的预测因子对响应变量条件分布的影响。第四篇文章介绍了使用成对绝对聚类和稀疏惩罚的正则化分位数回归方法,从均值回归扩展到分位数回归设置。本期特刊的最后一篇论文使用贝叶斯分位数回归来研究退休消费难题,该难题被定义为退休后消费的下降,使用2009/2010年马来西亚家庭支出调查的横截面数据。
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引用次数: 3
An Alternative Sensitivity Approach for Longitudinal Analysis with Dropout 一种具有Dropout的纵向分析灵敏度替代方法
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.1155/2019/1019303
A. Almohisen, R. Henderson, Arwa M. Alshingiti
In any longitudinal study, a dropout before the final timepoint can rarely be avoided. The chosen dropout model is commonly one of these types: Missing Completely at Random (MCAR), Missing at Random (MAR), Missing Not at Random (MNAR), and Shared Parameter (SP). In this paper we estimate the parameters of the longitudinal model for simulated data and real data using the Linear Mixed Effect (LME) method. We investigate the consequences of misspecifying the missingness mechanism by deriving the so-called least false values. These are the values the parameter estimates converge to, when the assumptions may be wrong. The knowledge of the least false values allows us to conduct a sensitivity analysis, which is illustrated. This method provides an alternative to a local misspecification sensitivity procedure, which has been developed for likelihood-based analysis. We compare the results obtained by the method proposed with the results found by using the local misspecification method. We apply the local misspecification and least false methods to estimate the bias and sensitivity of parameter estimates for a clinical trial example.
在任何纵向研究中,在最终时间点之前辍学几乎是不可避免的。所选择的退出模型通常是以下类型之一:完全随机缺失(MCAR)、随机缺失(MAR)、非随机缺失(MNAR)和共享参数(SP)。本文采用线性混合效应(LME)方法对模拟数据和实际数据的纵向模型参数进行估计。我们通过推导所谓的最小假值来研究错误指定缺失机制的后果。当假设可能是错误的时候,这些是参数估计的收敛值。最小错误值的知识使我们能够进行灵敏度分析,如下所示。该方法为基于似然分析的局部错误灵敏度程序提供了一种替代方法。将该方法与局部错配法的结果进行了比较。针对一个临床试验实例,应用局部错标法和最小错误法来估计参数估计的偏差和灵敏度。
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引用次数: 0
Generalized Performance Measures of X- Control Charts Based on Different Sampling Schemes 基于不同抽样方案的X-控制图的广义性能度量
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2019-06-04 DOI: 10.1155/2019/5269357
Rashid Mehmood, Muhammed Hisyam Lee, M. Riaz, Iftikhar Ali
Different versions of X- control chart structure are available under various ranked set strategies. In these control charts, computation of performance measures was carried out through Monte Carlo simulation method (MCSM). In this article, we have defined a generalized structure of X- control charts under variant sampling strategies followed by derivation of their different performance measures. For the derivation of different performance measures, we have proposed pivotal quantity. For comparative analysis, we have presented results of generalized performance measures by involving numerical method (NM) as computation. We found that values of generalized performance measures based on NM are almost similar to values of performance measures based on MCSM. Also, NM is time efficient and can be considered as an alternative of MCSM.
在不同的排序集策略下,有不同版本的X控制图结构。在这些控制图中,通过蒙特卡罗模拟方法(MCSM)进行性能度量的计算。在本文中,我们定义了X-控制图在不同采样策略下的广义结构,并推导了它们不同的性能度量。对于不同性能度量的推导,我们提出了关键量。为了进行比较分析,我们给出了采用数值方法(NM)作为计算的广义性能测量结果。我们发现基于NM的广义性能度量值与基于MCSM的性能度量值几乎相似。此外,NM具有时间效率,可以考虑作为MCSM的替代方案。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal of Probability and Statistics
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