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Surviving Unstable Property Rights in Early Modern China: A Case Study of Young Brother Bank 中国近代早期不稳定产权的存续——以“青年银行”为例
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-09-30 DOI: 10.3868/s060-007-018-0024-8
Jinsong Zhao, Hao Pang
Chinai¯s banking industry experienced rapid growth during the free access era from 1911 to 1927. However, the reasons private banks were so successful then remain unclear, particularly when property rights were not well protected due to government intervention. Using archived Young Brother Bank documents, we describe the banki¯s development from its founding as a family firm through its reinvention from a partnership into a corporation. We focus on organizational form choice and bank performance in this case study. We find that bankers in early modern China gain political connections by placing influential nonfamily members (often, acquisitive local warlords) on boards of directors because this protects them from the depredations of those warlords. This is a precondition for operating family businesses in unstable political circumstances.
中国的银行业在1911年至1927年的自由准入时代经历了快速增长。然而,当时私人银行如此成功的原因尚不清楚,尤其是在政府干预导致产权没有得到很好保护的情况下。使用存档的Young Brother Bank文件,我们描述了该银行从成立家族企业到从合伙企业重塑为公司的发展历程。在这个案例研究中,我们关注的是组织形式的选择和银行绩效。我们发现,现代早期中国的银行家通过在董事会中安排有影响力的非家族成员(通常是贪婪的地方军阀)来获得政治联系,因为这可以保护他们免受军阀的掠夺。这是在不稳定的政治环境中经营家族企业的先决条件。
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引用次数: 0
A Multi-Layer System and Its Features: Reconceptualizing the Monetary Regime of Late Qing and Modern China 一个多层体系及其特征——对晚清近代中国货币制度的重新认识
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-09-30 DOI: 10.3868/S060-007-018-0021-7
Ho-don Yan, Zhijian Qiao, Chen Xu
This essay aims to reconceptualize the monetary regime of late Qing and modern China as a multilayer system of currencies and examine the features and logics of its operation from the 16th century to early 20th century. We argue that this system consists of a variety of silver and copper currencies, each occupying a particular layer in the structure and each satisfying a specific market demand. Analyzing the production and circulation of copper and silver currencies, we first trace their evolution from the Qing to the Republican era and demonstrate the multi-layer currency structure persisted in China across the modernizing changes that took place at the end of the 19th century. Second, using data drawn from gazetteers, this essay adopts a quantitative approach to empirically examine the mechanism and speed of interactions between the different layers of the monetary market and reveal the operational mechanism of the multi-layer system. We suggest that this multi-layer system, while bringing some efficiency loss, also constituted an effective institutional arrangement that helped to ensure the stability of the Chinese economy in tumultuous times.
本文旨在将晚清和近代中国的货币制度重新定义为一个多层次的货币体系,并考察其从16世纪到20世纪初的运作特征和逻辑。我们认为,这一体系由多种银和铜货币组成,每种货币在结构中占据特定的层次,每种货币满足特定的市场需求。通过分析铜币和银币的生产和流通,我们首先追溯了它们从清朝到民国的演变过程,并展示了在19世纪末发生的现代化变革中,多层次的货币结构在中国持续存在。其次,本文利用地名词典中的数据,采用定量方法实证考察了货币市场不同层次之间相互作用的机制和速度,揭示了多层次体系的运行机制。我们认为,这种多层次的制度在带来一定效率损失的同时,也构成了一种有效的制度安排,有助于在动荡时期确保中国经济的稳定。
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引用次数: 1
Who Defended Monetary Stability in a Specie Regime? Evidence from the Chinese History 谁在Specie政权中捍卫了货币稳定?来自中国历史的证据
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-09-30 DOI: 10.3868/S060-007-018-0020-0
Sheng Qian, LeminWu
Despite the lack of political accountability, ancient autocracies maintained a level of monetary stability that rivals modern democracies. This paper hypothesizes that it is the threat of counterfeiting that has constrained currency debasement. Unwilling to share seigniorage with counterfeiters, who are active only if currency is debased, the government refrains from debasement unless in extreme fiscal situations. To document the facts, we build a database of historical Chinese copper coins that covers the period from the Qin dynasty (221BC¨C207BC) to the Republic of China. We also use the introduction of the steam press in late Qing China as a natural experiment to test the theory. The steam press produced coins of fine patterns that counterfeiters were unable to mimic. As the theory predicts, the removal of the threat of counterfeiting triggered the most serious debasement in the history of the Qing dynasty (1644¨C1912).
尽管缺乏政治问责制,但古代专制国家保持了与现代民主国家相媲美的货币稳定水平。本文假设是伪造的威胁限制了货币贬值。由于不愿与造假者分享铸币税(造假者只有在货币贬值时才会活跃),除非出现极端财政状况,否则政府不会让货币贬值。为了记录这些事实,我们建立了一个历史上的中国铜币数据库,涵盖了从秦朝(公元前221年至公元前207年)到中华民国的时期。我们也用清末引进的蒸汽压机作为自然实验来检验这一理论。蒸汽压榨机生产的钱币图案精美,造假者无法模仿。正如理论所预测的那样,假币威胁的消除引发了清朝(1644—1912)历史上最严重的贬值。
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引用次数: 0
Urbanization in China, ca. 1100–1900 中国的城市化,约1100–1900年
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-09-30 DOI: 10.3868/S060-007-018-0018-9
Yi Xu, B. Leeuwen, Jan Luiten van Zanden
This paper presents new estimates of the development of the urban population andthe urbanization ratio for the period spanning the Song and late Qing dynasties. Urbanizationis viewed, as in much of the economic historical literature on the topic, as an indirectindicator of economic development and structural change. The development of the urbansystem can therefore tell us a lot about long-term trends in the Chinese economy between1100 and 1900. During the Song the level of urbanization was high, also by internationalstandards – the capital cities of the Song were probably the largest cities in the world. This remained so until the late Ming, but during the Qing there was a downward trend in the levelof urbanization from 11–12% to 7% in the late 18th century, a level at which it remained untilthe early 1900s. In our paper we analyse the role that socio–political and economic causesplayed in this decline, such as the changing character of the Chinese state, the limited impactof overseas trade on the urban system, and the apparent absence of the dynamic economiceffects that were characteristic for the European urban system.
本文对宋代至晚清时期的城市人口发展和城市化比率进行了新的估计。城市化被视为经济发展和结构变化的一个间接指标,就像许多关于这一主题的经济史文献一样。因此,城市体系的发展可以告诉我们很多关于1100年到1900年间中国经济的长期趋势。宋朝的城市化水平很高,以国际标准衡量——宋朝的首都可能是世界上最大的城市。这种情况一直持续到明末,但在清朝,城市化水平出现了下降趋势,从11-12%下降到18世纪末的7%,这个水平一直保持到20世纪初。在我们的论文中,我们分析了社会政治和经济原因在这种衰退中所起的作用,例如中国国家性质的变化,海外贸易对城市体系的有限影响,以及明显缺乏欧洲城市体系特有的动态经济效应。
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引用次数: 28
How Did the Chinese Shanxi Merchants Determine the Remittance Fees? Micro Firm Analysis of Rishengchang Piaohao 中国晋商如何确定汇款费用?日升厂票号微观企业分析
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-09-30 DOI: 10.3868/S060-007-018-0023-1
Meng-Wen Wu
This paper examines the Chinese Shanxi piaohao, arguably the most important Chinese indigenous financial institutions in the 19th century. Concentrating on their business strategy, the study constructs a unique firm level set of data of the Rishengchang piaohao and explores the piaohaoi¯s types of client, silver and drafts it dealt in, branch distributions, and terms to cash drafts. Besides this, this article also designs multiple linear regressions and identifies elements that determined remittance fees. My study reveals that, when establishing a new branch, the Rishengchang took the consideration of business conditions as its priority and gradually expanded from cities at prefecture level to those in counties and towns. A growth of business sites also led to an increase in the types of client, silver and draft it accepted. Moreover, as it developed, the interval for the Rishengchang to cash a draft shortened by half. When estimating the remittance functions, my study found that as the amount of silver being remitted increased, the length of time to cash a draft extended and as the average distance between two branches increased, the Rishengchang would charge more in remittance fees. i°Commonersi± and i°gentryi± would pay more than i°firms,i± while i°other piaohaoi± would pay lower remittance fees. The drafts sent by telegram would also be much more expensive than those sent by letters or with papers. As the first detailed study on one of the most important and enduring firms in China, this work not only fills the data void where this subject is concerned, but also delineates the historical change of the piaohaoi¯s clients, drafts, business territories and gives profound insights into the rise of the Shanxi piaohao.
本文考察了19世纪中国最重要的本土金融机构山西票号。本研究围绕日升厂票号的经营策略,构建了日升厂票号独特的公司层面数据集,探讨了日升厂票号的客户类型、票号所经营的白银和汇票、票号的分支机构分布、票号的现金汇票条款等。除此之外,本文还设计了多元线性回归,识别了决定汇款费用的因素。我的研究发现,日升昌在设立新的分支机构时,将商业条件作为首要考虑因素,逐步从地级市扩展到县镇。商业网站的增长也导致了客户类型的增加,它接受的白银和汇票。此外,随着它的发展,日升昌兑现汇票的时间缩短了一半。在估算汇款功能时,我的研究发现,随着汇出银量的增加,汇票兑现时间的延长,以及两个网点之间的平均距离的增加,日升厂收取的汇款费用也会增加。i°平民和i°绅士比i°公司支付更多的汇款费用,而i°其他票号支付的汇款费用较低。用电报发送的汇票也比用信件或纸张发送的要贵得多。作为对中国最重要和最持久的公司之一的第一次详细研究,本研究不仅填补了这一课题的数据空白,而且描绘了票号的客户,草稿,业务领域的历史变化,并对山西票号的兴起有了深刻的见解。
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引用次数: 1
Conquering China’s Unbalanced and Inadequate Development: Macroeconomic Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2017–2018) 克服中国发展不平衡不充分:宏观经济展望、政策模拟与改革实施——上海财经大学2017—2018年度宏观经济报告综述
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-05-02 DOI: 10.3868/S060-007-018-0011-0
K. Huang, Lei Ning, Guoqiang Tian
Leaving year 2017 Chinai¯s macroeconomy is continuously characterized by unbalanced and inadequate development. Whereas some aggregate indicators have shown improvement over the year, the cumulative growth rates in consumption and fixed asset investment have continued their downward trajectories. Worsening income inequality and resource misallocations, both between secondary and tertiary industries, and within the latter, pose serious challenges, let alone the systemic risk associated with the flourishing shadow banking system, rapid credit growth and debt overhang that weigh on the Chinese economy like the Sword of Damocles. This summary report highlights both the status quo and the consequences of the unbalanced and inadequate development embodied in Chinai¯s persistently distorted economic structure, and the role of deepening reforms of the institutions and governance in resolving the problems. Our analyses based on IAR-CMM model provide a unified framework for addressing Chinai¯s short-, medium-, and long-term issues in an internally coherent manner. Looking into year 2018, our benchmark projection of real GDP growth rate is 6.7% (6.41% using more reliable rather than the official data). Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to reflect various aspects of the economic challenges in the short to long runs. Through the lens of these analyses we conclude that rule-of-law based and market-oriented structural reforms should continue to hold a center stage in Chinai¯s transition from a phase of high-speed but unbalanced growth, to a stage of balanced and adequate high-quality development.
2017年伊始,中国宏观经济持续呈现不平衡不充分发展的特点。尽管一些总体指标在一年中有所改善,但消费和固定资产投资的累计增长率仍在继续下降。第二产业和第三产业之间以及第三产业内部日益恶化的收入不平等和资源错配带来了严重的挑战,更不用说与繁荣的影子银行系统、快速的信贷增长和债务悬置相关的系统性风险了,这些都像达摩克利斯之剑一样压在了中国经济上。这份总结报告强调了中国持续扭曲的经济结构中所体现的不平衡和不充分发展的现状和后果,以及深化体制和治理改革在解决问题中的作用。我们基于IAR-CMM模型的分析为以内部一致的方式解决中国的短期、中期和长期问题提供了一个统一的框架。展望2018年,我们对实际GDP增长率的基准预测为6.7%(使用比官方数据更可靠的数据为6.41%)。进行了替代情景分析和政策模拟,以反映短期到长期经济挑战的各个方面。通过这些分析,我们得出结论,在中国从高速但不平衡的增长阶段向均衡充分的高质量发展阶段过渡的过程中,以法治为基础、以市场为导向的结构性改革应继续占据中心地位。
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引用次数: 5
Agricultural Roots in Intergenerational Transfers in China 中国代际转移中的农业根源
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-05-02 DOI: 10.3868/s060-007-018-0015-8
Yan Liu, Qingqing Zong
Economists have been interested in the motivations of intergenerational transfers, for different motivations affect the effectiveness of anti-poverty public transfers. However, onei¯s motivation is largely shaped by culture and social conventions. This paper sheds light on the influence of rice cultivation in intergenerational transfers in China. This is also the first time that economists consider cultural factors in the study of intergenerational transfers. Cultivating rice requires elaborate irrigation systems and large amounts of labor input so that rice farmers have to cooperate extensively with their neighbors, which has gradually shaped peoplei¯s value to be more inter-dependent. Based on micro-level data from CHARLS and sub-national rice data from China, our empirical results show strong evidence that individuals from rice regions are more likely to provide economic support for their parents. A one-percentage point increase in the share of rice in the total grain planting area will raise transfer incidence by 0.2¨C0.4 percentage points, and rice region residents transfer on average 300¨C400 yuan more in 2011 and about 1,000 yuan more in 2013 to their parents than those from wheat regions. Meanwhile they are more inclined to rely on their adult children for elderly support. Urban citizens are less affected. Using instrumental variable estimation, we are able to prove the effect is causal. With future continued deepening of population aging in China, relying on children for old age support may become more and more unrealistic, the government needs to coordinate the relationship between public transfer and private transfer to ensure the quality of life for the elderly.
经济学家一直对代际转移的动机很感兴趣,因为不同的动机会影响反贫困公共转移的有效性。然而,一个人的动机很大程度上受到文化和社会习俗的影响。本文揭示了水稻种植对中国代际迁移的影响。这也是经济学家第一次在研究代际转移时考虑文化因素。种植水稻需要复杂的灌溉系统和大量的劳动力投入,因此稻农不得不与邻居广泛合作,这逐渐形成了人与人之间更加相互依赖的价值观。基于CHARLS的微观层面数据和中国地方水稻数据,我们的实证结果显示,来自水稻产区的个体更有可能为其父母提供经济支持。水稻占粮食种植面积的比重每提高1个百分点,转移支付率就会提高0.2 ~ 0.4个百分点,水稻种植区居民2011年向父母的转移支付平均比小麦种植区多300 ~ 400元,2013年比小麦种植区居民多1000元左右。与此同时,他们更倾向于依靠成年子女来赡养老人。城市居民受影响较小。使用工具变量估计,我们能够证明效果是因果关系。随着未来中国人口老龄化的持续加深,依靠子女养老可能越来越不现实,政府需要协调好公共转移和私人转移的关系,确保老年人的生活质量。
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引用次数: 1
Does the Entrepreneurship of the Parents Affect the Opportunities of their Offspring’s Entrepreneurship? Empirical Analysis Based on the CGSS 2010–2013 Data 父母的创业是否影响子女创业的机会?基于CGSS 2010-2013年数据的实证分析
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-05-02 DOI: 10.3868/S060-007-018-0013-4
Yongmei Hu, Yun Xing
The whole society is paying close attention to i°entrepreneurship,i± which urges researchers to find an explanatory perspective relatively independent and with causality on the intergenerational transfer of entrepreneurship. Based on the data of the Chinese General Social Survey (short for CGSS) during the years 2010¨C2013, this paper analyzes how parentsi¯ entrepreneurship affects the probability of their offspringi¯s entrepreneurship, and the results show that compared with the offspring of parents who did not start their own business, those whose parents did are more likely to choose to start their own business. In view of historical facts such as the i°lay-off wavei± during Chinai¯s transformation into a market economy, we use i°the annual number of unemployed back to work,i± a provincial-level indicator, in the 1990s as an instrumental variable to correct possible endogenous problems. We find that parentsi¯ entrepreneurship has significant positive effects on the probability of their offspringi¯s entrepreneurship, which may result from the informal transfer of human capital and wealth from parents to their offspring.
整个社会都在关注企业家精神,这促使研究者寻找一个相对独立的、具有因果关系的解释企业家精神代际转移的视角。本文基于2010 ~ 2013年中国综合社会调查(Chinese General Social Survey,简称CGSS)的数据,分析了父母创业对其后代创业概率的影响,结果表明,与父母未创业的后代相比,父母创业的后代更有可能选择创业。考虑到中国向市场经济转型过程中的裁员浪潮等历史事实,我们使用20世纪90年代的年度失业人员重返工作岗位数量(1±一个省级指标)作为工具变量来修正可能存在的内生问题。研究发现,父母创业对后代创业概率有显著的正向影响,这可能是父母向后代非正式转移人力资本和财富的结果。
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引用次数: 0
The Effects of Macroeconomic Policies in a Mercantilist Economy 重商主义经济中宏观经济政策的影响
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-05-02 DOI: 10.3868/S060-007-018-0012-7
Gaowang Wang, H. Zou
By introducing money and foreign exchanges in the Zou (1997) model of mercantilism, the paper shows the effects of macroeconomic policies in mercantilist economies. It is shown that in the long run, consumption and foreign asset accumulation increases as a result of stronger mercantilist sentiments, permanent increases in the consumption tax, increases in the monetary growth rate and purchases of foreign bonds. In the short run, however, macroeconomic disturbances including the mercantilist sentiments, the monetary growth rate, and the consumption tax have negative effects on current consumption and positive effects on current foreign asset accumulation, while purchasing foreign bonds has positive effects on both current consumption and current foreign asset accumulation. The theoretical explorations may provide a theoretical structure for hoarding international reserves and export-led growth strategy utilized by emerging market economies.
通过引入邹氏(1997)重商主义模型中的货币和外汇,本文展示了重商主义经济体中宏观经济政策的影响。研究表明,从长期来看,消费和外国资产积累的增加是重商主义情绪增强、消费税永久性提高、货币增长率提高和购买外国债券的结果。然而,在短期内,包括重商主义情绪、货币增长率和消费税在内的宏观经济干扰对当前消费产生负面影响,对当前外国资产积累产生积极影响,而购买外国债券对当前消费和当前外国资产积累都有积极影响。理论探索可以为新兴市场经济体囤积国际储备和出口导向型增长战略提供理论框架。
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引用次数: 0
Rethinking Globalization in the Trump Era: US-China Relations 重新思考特朗普时代的全球化:美中关系
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-05-02 DOI: 10.3868/S060-007-018-0010-3
J. Stiglitz
The global economic and political order that was created in the aftermath of World War II is under attack by President Donald Trump. In this article, Nobel Prize Laureate Joseph Stiglitz discusses the scope for protectionist actions by President Trump and suggests how countries such as China could and should respond. In particular, he proposes a set of ten principles that should guide Chinai¯s response, principles designed to enhance a more stable and efficient multi-polar system of global governance that can contribute to a stronger global economy.
二战后建立的全球经济和政治秩序正受到唐纳德·特朗普总统的攻击。在这篇文章中,诺贝尔奖获得者约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨讨论了特朗普总统采取保护主义行动的范围,并建议中国等国可以也应该如何应对。特别是,他提出了一套指导中国应对的十项原则,这些原则旨在加强一个更加稳定和高效的多极全球治理体系,从而有助于增强全球经济。
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引用次数: 20
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Frontiers of Economics in China
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