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Climate policy, resource owners’ anticipations and the green paradox: model set-up and empirical considerations 气候政策、资源所有者的预期和绿色悖论:模型建立和实证考虑
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-05-11 DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2022.2071344
N. Schneider
ABSTRACT With the acceleration of environmental commitments, the Green Paradox has been taking centre stage in the climate debate. In the standard Hotelling (1936) framework, producers may interpret environmental regulations as direct threats to resource scarcity rents. They compensate the future losses of revenues by forward shifting the extraction decision to the present period. In this paper, we defend the intuition behind which the anticipation effects of fossil producers are non-negligible and cannot be ignored by environmental planners. However, facing the conflicting evidence and theoretical underpinnings arising from the most recent literature, we argue that their effective impacts on climate targets tend to be over-estimated and might become smaller under reasonable assumptions and identified conditions. Accordingly, a set of recommendations are provided to internalize such inferences within upcoming climate measures.
随着环保承诺的加速,绿色悖论已经成为气候辩论的中心议题。在标准的Hotelling(1936)框架中,生产者可能将环境法规解释为对资源稀缺租金的直接威胁。他们通过将开采决策提前转移到当前时期来补偿未来的收入损失。在本文中,我们捍卫了化石燃料生产商的预期效应是不可忽视的,不能被环境规划者忽视的直觉。然而,面对来自最新文献的相互矛盾的证据和理论基础,我们认为它们对气候目标的有效影响往往被高估了,并且在合理的假设和确定的条件下可能会变小。因此,提出了一套建议,以便在即将采取的气候措施中内化这些推论。
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引用次数: 9
Willingness to pay for mangrove restoration to reduce the climate change impacts on ecotourism in Rekawa coastal wetland, Sri Lanka 为减少气候变化对斯里兰卡雷卡瓦滨海湿地生态旅游的影响而支付红树林恢复费用的意愿
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2022.2065364
Salpage Nesha Dushani, M. Aanesen, C. Armstrong
ABSTRACT This study investigates tourist preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for restoration of mangroves to reduce the effects of climate change (CC) on ecotourism at Rekawa coastal wetland, Sri Lanka, using a double bounded discrete choice elicitation format in a contingent valuation method. The survey also included socio-economic, demographic, and attitudinal characteristics of respondents. The results reveal that domestic and foreign tourists on average were willing to pay 2.65 USD and 11.4 USD per person, respectively, for mangrove restoration in Rekawa wetland. Among socio-demographic variables, education, age, and occupation had a significant effect on WTP. Furthermore, we show that foreign respondents with greater trust in the role of mangroves in mitigating the impacts of CC on sea turtles, and domestic tourists who believed effects of mangrove restoration in reducing the future vulnerability of urban expansion, were willing to pay more for the proposed mangrove restoration fund. Based on tourists’ preferences and WTP for mangrove protection, our results support the establishment of an environmental protection fund from the collection of tourists’ entrance fees using a dual pricing strategy, and the use of the funds for planting mangroves, patrolling mangrove areas to prevent illegal activities, and promoting nature-based tourism activities.
摘要本研究采用条件估值方法中的双界离散选择启发格式,调查了游客对红树林恢复的偏好和支付意愿,以减少气候变化对斯里兰卡雷卡瓦海岸湿地生态旅游的影响。调查还包括受访者的社会经济、人口和态度特征。结果表明,国内外游客平均每人愿意为Rekawa湿地的红树林恢复支付2.65美元和11.4美元。在社会人口学变量中,教育、年龄和职业对WTP有显著影响。此外,我们发现,外国受访者对红树林在减轻CC对海龟的影响方面的作用更加信任,而国内游客则认为红树林恢复在减少未来城市扩张脆弱性方面的作用,他们愿意为拟议的红树林恢复基金支付更多费用。根据游客对红树林保护的偏好和WTP,我们的研究结果支持建立一个环境保护基金,通过使用双重定价策略收取游客的入场费,并将资金用于种植红树林、巡逻红树林区域以防止非法活动和促进以自然为基础的旅游活动。
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引用次数: 3
Does air pollution increase electric vehicle adoption? Evidence from U.S. metropolitan areas, 2011–2018 空气污染会促进电动汽车的普及吗?来自美国大都市地区的证据,2011-2018
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-15 DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2022.2059015
J. Bayham, J. Burkhardt, Makena Coffman, Sherilyn Hayashida, S. La Croix
ABSTRACT We estimate a model of electric vehicle (EV) adoption in 427 of the largest metropolitan areas in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. We observe all new battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in electric vehicles (PHEV) registrations by metro area over the 2011–2018 period, and we investigate whether adoption of new EVs is statistically related to multiple types of air pollution – long-term air pollution as measured by ambient PM2.5 and temporary pollution events as measured by the presence of wildfire smoke plumes in either the lower or upper atmosphere. Regression results show that both ambient PM2.5 and smoke plumes are related to BEV and PHEV adoptions by metro area.
我们对美国48个州中427个最大的大都市地区的电动汽车(EV)采用模型进行了估计。我们观察了2011-2018年期间所有新电池电动汽车(BEV)和插电式电动汽车(PHEV)在城市地区的注册情况,并调查了新电动汽车的采用是否与多种类型的空气污染在统计上相关——以环境PM2.5衡量的长期空气污染,以及以低层或高层大气中野火烟雾的存在衡量的临时污染事件。回归结果表明,城市区域的纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车的采用与环境PM2.5和烟羽有关。
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引用次数: 2
Waiting for Godot? The case for climate change adaptation and mitigation in small island states 在等戈多?小岛屿国家适应和减缓气候变化的理由
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-23 DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2022.2049372
Serhan Cevik
ABSTRACT Global warming is the most significant threat to ecosystems and people’s health and living standards in the coming decades, especially in small island states in the Caribbean and elsewhere. This paper contributes to the debate by analyzing different options to scale up climate change mitigation and adaptation. In particular, the empirical analysis indicates that increasing energy efficiency and reducing the use of fossil fuel in electricity generation could lead to a significant reduction in carbon emissions, while investing in physical and financial resilience would yield long-run benefits. From a risk-reward perspective, the advantages of reducing the risks associated with climate change and the health benefits from higher environmental quality clearly outweigh the potential cost of climate change mitigation and adaptation in the short run. The additional revenue generated by environmental taxes could be used to compensate the most vulnerable households, building a multilayered safety net, and strengthening structural resilience.
全球变暖是未来几十年对生态系统、人类健康和生活水平的最大威胁,特别是在加勒比海和其他地方的小岛屿国家。本文通过分析扩大气候变化减缓和适应的不同选择,为这场辩论做出了贡献。特别是,实证分析表明,提高能源效率和减少发电中化石燃料的使用可能导致碳排放的显著减少,而投资于物理和金融弹性将产生长期效益。从风险-回报的角度来看,减少与气候变化有关的风险所带来的好处以及提高环境质量所带来的健康益处显然超过了短期内缓解和适应气候变化的潜在成本。环境税产生的额外收入可用于补偿最脆弱的家庭,建立多层安全网,并加强结构弹性。
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引用次数: 3
Welfare effect of substitute sites for coastal recreation – evidence from the Baltic Sea 滨海娱乐替代场所的福利效应——来自波罗的海的证据
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-06 DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2022.2043188
Heini Ahtiainen, Tuija Lankia, Jussi Lehtonen, Olli Lehtonen, Christine Bertram, J. Meyerhoff, Kristīne Pakalniete, K. Rehdanz, E. Pouta
ABSTRACT Omission of substitute sites in travel cost analysis can cause an overestimation of recreational benefits. Only few analyses have included substitutes, partly because of the difficulty in defining an appropriate set of substitutes. We examine factors affecting the existence of substitutes and their impact on the demand and value of coastal recreation using spatially-referenced survey data from Finland, Germany and Latvia on recreational visits to the Baltic Sea, which can be characterized as a unique destination. Substitutes are defined by respondents themselves. Our findings indicate that the existence and effects of substitute sites differ across countries. Many respondents have no substitutes for Baltic Sea recreation, in particular in Latvia. Respondent and visit-specific factors explain the probability of having substitutes. Substitutes reduce the demand for coastal recreation in Finland and Germany but increase it in Latvia. Further, respondents having substitutes are less sensitive to travel costs in Germany and more sensitive in Finland and Latvia. The annual welfare from Baltic Sea recreation is lower for people who have substitutes in Finland and Germany, and higher in Latvia. The findings suggest that uniform assumptions about the existence and effects of substitutes appear unwarranted, especially for sites of unique or iconic nature.
摘要:在差旅成本分析中遗漏替代场地可能会导致高估娱乐效益。只有很少的分析包括替代品,部分原因是很难定义一套合适的替代品。我们利用芬兰、德国和拉脱维亚关于波罗的海休闲旅游的空间参考调查数据,研究了影响替代品存在的因素及其对沿海休闲需求和价值的影响,波罗的海可以被描述为一个独特的目的地。替代品由受访者自己定义。我们的研究结果表明,替代站点的存在和影响因国家而异。许多受访者无法替代波罗的海的娱乐活动,尤其是在拉脱维亚。受访者和访问的具体因素解释了有替代者的可能性。替代品减少了芬兰和德国对沿海娱乐的需求,但增加了拉脱维亚的需求。此外,在德国,有替代品的受访者对差旅费用不太敏感,在芬兰和拉脱维亚则更敏感。在芬兰和德国,有替代品的人每年从波罗的海娱乐获得的福利较低,而在拉脱维亚则较高。研究结果表明,关于替代品的存在和影响的统一假设似乎是没有根据的,尤其是对于具有独特或标志性性质的遗址。
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引用次数: 0
Valuation and financing of National Parks in South and South East Asia: a meta-analysis 南亚和东南亚国家公园的估价和融资:一项荟萃分析
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-06 DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2022.2044391
S. Shrivastava, Kakali Mukhopadhyay
ABSTRACT Protected Areas, the mainstay of biodiversity conservation, are facing an unprecedented threat of being exploited, making their conservation not only crucial but also urgent. As the looming threat does not leave scope for expensive and time-consuming surveys, this paper intends to add to the existing literature and to the cause of biodiversity conservation by undertaking the first ever multinational Meta-Analysis of National Park (NP) valuation studies in South and South East Asia. The relative importance of study-, site-, and socioeconomic characteristics is estimated through a meta-regression and suggestions for redesigning pricing strategies to capture the unrealized consumer surplus are presented. Key results highlight the importance of the place of residence, area of the NP, and GDP per capita in explaining variation in NP value. Furthermore, taking note of the havoc wreaked by the COVID-19 pandemic, the study highlights the need to diversify the funding base for NP management in order to ensure sustainable financing by presenting country-specific examples.
摘要保护区作为生物多样性保护的支柱,正面临着前所未有的被开发威胁,保护区不仅至关重要,而且迫在眉睫。由于迫在眉睫的威胁并没有为昂贵和耗时的调查留下余地,本文打算通过在南亚和东南亚进行有史以来第一次跨国国家公园(NP)评估研究,为现有文献和生物多样性保护事业增添内容。通过元回归估计了研究、地点和社会经济特征的相对重要性,并提出了重新设计定价策略以获取未实现消费者剩余的建议。关键结果强调了居住地、NP面积和人均GDP在解释NP值变化方面的重要性。此外,考虑到新冠肺炎疫情造成的严重破坏,该研究强调,需要使NP管理的资金基础多样化,以通过提供具体国家的例子来确保可持续融资。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of forest land use on the cost of drinking water supply: machine learning evidence from South African data 林地使用对饮用水供应成本的影响:来自南非数据的机器学习证据
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-24 DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2021.2024094
D. Gelo, J. Turpie
ABSTRACT Water quality amelioration is one of the key ecosystem services provided by forests in the catchment areas of water supply systems. In this study, we applied random effect models and the least absolute shrinkage and selection regression method of machine learning to South African panel data to estimate the causal effect of natural forest cover on municipalities' water treatment cost. We controlled for a range of confounding covariates including other land cover variables including wetlands, plantation forests, grassland, woodland etc. The Lasso based instrumental variable (IV) method allowed us to simultaneously account for model uncertainty surrounding variable selection and endogeneity bias. We found significant and robust evidence that natural forestland cover reduces water treatment costs at the intensive margin. Estimates from our preferred models indicated that the marginal benefit of increasing forest cover is R310.63 /ha/year. We also found that the elasticity response of water treatment cost to natural forest area is 0.02%. Our estimate of the marginal value of the water purification service is small compared to the producer's surplus from alternative land uses. However, protection of natural forest land use might be defended if other ecosystem goods and services provided by natural forests are taken into account.
摘要水质改善是森林在供水系统集水区提供的关键生态系统服务之一。在这项研究中,我们将随机效应模型和机器学习的最小绝对收缩和选择回归方法应用于南非面板数据,以估计天然林覆盖对城市水处理成本的因果影响。我们控制了一系列混杂协变量,包括其他土地覆盖变量,包括湿地、人工林、草原、林地等。基于拉索的工具变量(IV)方法使我们能够同时考虑变量选择和内生性偏差的模型不确定性。我们发现了重要而有力的证据,表明天然林地覆盖在集约边际上降低了水处理成本。根据我们的首选模型估计,增加森林覆盖率的边际效益为10.63南非兰特/公顷/年。我们还发现,水处理成本对天然林面积的弹性响应为0.02%。与生产者从替代土地使用中获得的盈余相比,我们对净水服务边际价值的估计很小。然而,如果考虑到天然林提供的其他生态系统商品和服务,则可以保护天然林地的使用。
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引用次数: 1
Valuing water and wastewater services in the UK: introduction to the special issue 评估英国的水和污水处理服务:特刊简介
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2022.2025910
P. Metcalfe
ABSTRACT At the most recent water price review in England and Wales, PR19, water companies were encouraged more than ever before by the economic regulator, Ofwat, to expand the evidence based on the value of potential improvements to water and wastewater services, and to consider new and innovative methods for doing so. The present special issue was motivated by the opportunity to take stock of the developments and invite scrutiny from a wider academic and policy audience, thereby hopefully stimulating further innovation and advancement of the techniques used. It contains six papers, including a history of willingness to pay research in the UK water sector, a meta-analysis of UK water and wastewater service valuations and four novel valuation studies conducted for PR19.
在英格兰和威尔士(PR19)最近的水价审查中,经济监管机构ofwater比以往任何时候都更鼓励水务公司扩大基于潜在改善水和废水服务价值的证据,并考虑新的创新方法来实现这一目标。本期特刊的动机是有机会对事态发展进行评估,并请更广泛的学术和政策听众进行审查,从而希望能刺激所使用技术的进一步创新和进步。它包含六篇论文,包括英国水务部门支付研究意愿的历史,英国水务和废水服务估值的荟萃分析,以及为PR19进行的四项新估值研究。
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引用次数: 0
Valuing water and wastewater service improvements via impact-weighted numbers of service failures 通过服务故障的影响加权数来评估水和废水服务的改进
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2021.2023052
A. Chalak, P. Metcalfe
ABSTRACT Stated preference valuations of water and wastewater service improvements in Great Britain have been found to be highly variable across studies for similar units of service, driven primarily by a substantive dependence on the scope of service change offered to survey participants. The present paper motivates and describes a new approach that is simpler for survey participants and sidesteps the key problems caused by scope insensitivity. It relies on first deriving estimates of the relative impact of different types of service issue, and then using these to apportion a package valuation into valuations of individual service level improvements. The paper presents a case study that implements the new approach in a real business planning context and discusses the impact the new approach has on the valuation results obtained. We contend that the new approach has significant advantages over traditional discrete choice experiment approaches to water and wastewater service valuation and recommend it for future use in similar policy/planning contexts.
在英国,对类似服务单位的研究发现,对供水和污水处理服务改进的既定偏好估值变化很大,这主要是由于对提供给调查参与者的服务变化范围的实质性依赖。本文提出并描述了一种新的方法,该方法对调查参与者来说更简单,并回避了范围不敏感造成的关键问题。它首先依赖于对不同类型的服务问题的相对影响的估计,然后使用这些来将包评估分配到单个服务水平改进的评估中。本文提出了一个案例研究,在真实的商业规划环境中实施新方法,并讨论了新方法对获得的估值结果的影响。我们认为,与传统的水和废水服务评估的离散选择实验方法相比,新方法具有显著的优势,并建议将其用于未来类似的政策/规划环境中。
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引用次数: 4
Valuation of nature-based tourism using contingent valuation survey: evidence from South Africa 基于条件价值调查的自然旅游价值评估:来自南非的证据
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-28 DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2021.2010604
Samson Mukanjari, Herbert Ntuli, E. Muchapondwa
ABSTRACT The increasing pressure within developing countries to focus on other national objectives has led to declining fiscal transfers for conservation. This paper assesses the potential for a typical large African park such as the Kruger National Park to generate additional revenue through an entrance fee hike in order to finance park operations. This is investigated by estimating international tourists’ willingness to pay (WTP) for possible future visits. The estimated WTP is substantial, ranging from $216 to $255 per trip and $79 million to $94 million per year for all international tourists. Using a non-parametric survival function to calculate the consumer surplus that could be extracted from tourists, we show that park authorities can increase total revenue by 57% to 61% ($38 million and $40 million) per year. These findings indicate that unique African parks such as the Kruger National Park can contribute to African economies through revenues from increased entrance fees.
摘要发展中国家内部关注其他国家目标的压力越来越大,导致用于保护的财政转移减少。本文评估了克鲁格国家公园等典型的大型非洲公园通过提高入场费为公园运营提供资金来产生额外收入的潜力。这是通过估计国际游客为未来可能的访问付费的意愿来进行调查的。估计的WTP相当可观,每次旅行216美元至255美元不等,所有国际游客每年7900万美元至9400万美元不等。使用非参数生存函数来计算可以从游客身上提取的消费者盈余,我们发现公园管理部门每年可以将总收入增加57%至61%(3800万美元和4000万美元)。这些发现表明,克鲁格国家公园等独特的非洲公园可以通过增加门票收入为非洲经济做出贡献。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy
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