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Strategies of Dynamic Complexity Management 动态复杂性管理策略
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2020.4.34.45
H. Knyazeva
The modern theory of complex systems changes our view of historical processes, accompanied by uncertainties, instabilities and ambiguities. The knowledge of this theory allows us to master a system or holistic thinking, and to understand the laws of functioning and growth of not just structural, but dynamic complexity. Uncertainties and chaotic elements that indicate any state of crisis are not only negative factors that we should beware of and not without fear to worry about them. We can learn to manage them and use them in the way of renewal of social systems, producing innovations. The strategic vision of complex systems evolution becomes an effective tool for decision making and scenarios planning based on our participatory activities with alternative futures. The article examines the case of Shell Corporation, which has been using scenario thinking technologies since the early 1970s, which has given it incredible competitive advantages and incentives for rapid growth and transformation into an international energy giant.
复杂系统的现代理论改变了我们对伴随不确定性、不稳定性和模糊性的历史过程的看法。这一理论的知识使我们能够掌握一个系统或整体的思维,并了解功能和增长的规律,而不仅仅是结构的复杂性,而是动态的复杂性。任何危机状态的不确定性和混乱因素不仅是我们应该警惕和担心的消极因素。我们可以学会管理和利用它们,以更新社会制度的方式,产生创新。复杂系统进化的战略愿景成为决策制定和情景规划的有效工具,这些决策和情景规划基于我们的参与性活动和可选择的未来。本文考察了壳牌公司的案例,该公司自20世纪70年代初以来一直在使用情景思维技术,这给了它令人难以置信的竞争优势,并激励它快速增长,转型为一家国际能源巨头。
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引用次数: 8
Contemporary Practices of Intelligence Support for Competitiveness 智力支撑竞争力的当代实践
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-09-25 DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2020.3.30.39
Nisha Sewdass, J. Calof
This paper focuses on the practices, assessment approaches, procedures, and applied aspects of competitive intelligence (CI). The study relies upon a survey of CI practitioners conducted in 2019 and a comparison of its results with a similar survey in 2006. It was found that companies spend the time devoted to this activity mainly on processes that go beyond collecting information, including planning, analysis, communications, and management. Most enterprises have official divisions and profile managers. The results are used to perform a variety of strategic and tactical tasks.The main sources of information are the Internet, company employees, customers, and industry experts. Compared to 2006, a new key resource has emerged - social networks. Of the analytical methods, SWOT analysis and the study of competitors are most often used. Several channels of communication are used simultaneously to disseminate the received information, mainly email and presentations are used. Key performance criteria are customer satisfaction and the number of decisions made based on the information gathered.A comparative analysis revealed that over the period separating the surveys of 2006 and 2019, the function of the CR has become more formalized. The share of companies with centralized divisions and CI managers has grown. Currently, this activity more often goes beyond the simple profiling and evaluation of competitors. Technology assessment, economic, and political analysis are more actively practiced.
本文着重于竞争情报(CI)的实践、评估方法、程序和应用方面。该研究基于2019年对CI从业者进行的一项调查,并将其结果与2006年的一项类似调查进行了比较。研究发现,公司将时间主要花在收集信息之外的过程上,包括计划、分析、沟通和管理。大多数企业都有正式的部门和配置文件管理员。其结果用于执行各种战略和战术任务。信息的主要来源是互联网、公司员工、客户和行业专家。与2006年相比,一种新的关键资源已经出现——社交网络。在分析方法中,SWOT分析和竞争对手研究是最常用的。同时使用几种沟通渠道来传播接收到的信息,主要是电子邮件和演示。关键绩效标准是客户满意度和根据收集到的信息做出的决策数量。一项比较分析显示,在2006年和2019年的调查期间,CR的功能变得更加正规化。拥有集中部门和CI经理的公司所占的份额已经增长。目前,这一活动往往超出了对竞争对手的简单分析和评估。技术评估、经济和政治分析更加活跃。
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引用次数: 6
Interactive Applications with Artificial Intelligence: The Role of Trust among Digital Assistant Users 人工智能交互应用:数字助理用户信任的作用
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2020.2.64.75
P. Purwanto, K. Kuswandi, F. Fatmah
People are increasingly dependent on technology. On the other hand, companies’ large-scale investments to establish an ongoing loyalty with technology platforms and ecosystems show negative results. This is due to lower trust, concerns about risk, and increasing issues of privacy. Despite the continuous development of digital assistant applications to increase interactivity, however, there is no guarantee that the concept of interactivity is capable of gaining users’ trust and addressing their concerns. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the effects of controllability, synchronicity, bidirectionality on perceived performance and user satisfaction with digital assistant applications as moderated by perceived trust. Amos 22.0 was used to analyze a sample of 150 digital assistant users of brands Samsung Bixby, Google Assistant, Apple Siri, and other brands. Results show that bidirectionality is the most worrying feature in terms of perceived performance of digital assistants related to trust and privacy protection issues of personal data, whereas the other two features contribute to perceived performance and digital assistant users’ satisfaction. Perceived trust plays a role in moderating the relationship between controllability, synchronicity bi-directionality of perceived performance. Finally, perceived performance has an effect on digital assistant users’ satisfaction.
人们越来越依赖科技。另一方面,企业为建立与技术平台和生态系统的持续忠诚而进行的大规模投资显示出负面结果。这是由于信任度降低、对风险的担忧以及日益增加的隐私问题。然而,尽管数字助理应用程序不断发展以增加交互性,但并不能保证交互性的概念能够获得用户的信任并解决他们的问题。本研究的目的是分析可控性、同步性、双向性在感知信任的调节下对数字助理应用程序的感知绩效和用户满意度的影响。使用Amos 22.0对三星Bixby、b谷歌assistant、苹果Siri等品牌的150名数字助理用户进行样本分析。结果表明,在与个人数据的信任和隐私保护问题相关的数字助理感知性能方面,双向性是最令人担忧的特征,而其他两个特征有助于感知性能和数字助理用户满意度。知觉信任对知觉绩效的可控性、同步性、双向性之间的关系起调节作用。最后,感知绩效对数字助理用户满意度有影响。
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引用次数: 10
Fintech as a Precondition of Transformations in Global Financial Markets 金融科技是全球金融市场转型的前提
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2020.2.23.35
S. Belozyorov, O. Sokolovska, Young sik Kim
The article considers opportunities, risk and challenges of development of digital financial technologies. To identify them we use the scenario approach. We determine three main development scenarios for the market of innovative financial technologies - “domination of traditional financial companies”, “segmentation of market of new financial technologies’, and “domination of digital financial companies”, in terms of their probability and possible consequences for the global financial markets. The results of analysis allowed to suggest that among main scenarios of FinTech development the most probable is the splitting of existing market, that in perspective can generate into the market of digital transnational financial corporations, which will squeeze out both small companies and traditional financial giants. However, although the scenario of capturing the financial market by big players is currently unlikely, but it is certainly more important in terms of the consequences for the global markets.The main prerequisite for the latest scenario is the promotion of international cooperation in the regulation of digital financial companies. Such a prerequisite requires new models of country-level interaction in regulation of innovative financial companies in order to address risks and challenges of different scenarios of FinTech development in global financial markets. The article includes comparative analysis of digital development in Russia and Republic of Korea, which is one of the key players on the Asian FinTech market, as a possible benchmark to shape policies of intergovernmental cooperation in the global financial markets. These policies include 1) a regulatory cooperation that reduces regulatory risks due to growing experience in regulation of innovative financial companies; 2) an investment cooperation allowing to acquire additional experience in regulatory practices and to develop infrastructure, which meets new requirements of digital finance; and 3) a cooperation on taxation of FinTech companies that reduces cross-border regulatory arbitrage.
本文探讨了数字金融技术发展的机遇、风险和挑战。为了识别它们,我们使用场景方法。我们确定了创新金融技术市场的三个主要发展场景——“传统金融公司的统治”、“新金融技术市场细分”和“数字金融公司的支配”,根据它们对全球金融市场的概率和可能后果。分析结果表明,在金融科技发展的主要场景中,最有可能的是现有市场的拆分,从长远来看,这可能会产生数字跨国金融公司的市场,这将挤压小公司和传统金融巨头。然而,尽管目前不太可能出现由大公司占领金融市场的情况,但就对全球市场的影响而言,这无疑更为重要。最新情况的主要前提是促进数字金融公司监管方面的国际合作。这一先决条件要求在监管创新金融公司方面建立新的国家层面互动模式,以应对全球金融市场金融科技发展不同场景的风险和挑战。本文对俄罗斯和大韩民国的数字发展进行了比较分析,大韩民国是亚洲金融科技市场的关键参与者之一,可以作为制定全球金融市场政府间合作政策的可能基准。这些政策包括:1)监管合作,由于在监管创新金融公司方面积累了越来越多的经验,减少了监管风险;2) 投资合作,使其能够在监管实践方面获得更多经验,并发展满足数字金融新要求的基础设施;以及3)金融科技公司税收合作,减少跨境监管套利。
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引用次数: 14
Tax Incentives for Supporting Competitiveness of Telecommunication Manufacturers 支持电信制造商竞争力的税收优惠
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2020.2.51.62
I. Dezhina, T. Nafikova, T. Gareev, A. Ponomarev
The article is dedicated to the analysis of cost factors, primarily tax burden, that can explain the observable price difference on Russian market between domestic telecommunication equipment and imports from China and USA. The relevance of the research is justified by critical significance of this market for economic, information and technological security of Russian Federation in a changed geopolitical environment. The present methods of tax burden calculation analyzed in the article reveal the subindustry level measurement to be the least studied. Based on data on 42 companies for 2015-2017, the cost structure of telecommunication equipment manufacturing industry is studied, a model for computing the tax burden rate on domestic enterprises using imported components is built. The model is adjusted for cross-country comparison to reflect the specifics of countries’ tax systems. The calculations are based on the assumption of equal production costs in the three countries under examination. A comparative analysis has shown that the tax burden in Russia is on average higher than in USA (almost 3 percentage points) and in China for enterprises operating in preferential economic zones (about 2 percentage points). However, this difference in tax burden rate does not explain the observed price discrepancy on the domestic market (up to 21 percent). Cost of components and cost of debt are additionally examined as the factors elucidating divergence of economic conditions. An approximate assessment of their influence has shown that the effect of reducing average costs with an increase in output of components, which is especially characteristic of China, has the largest impact. For American importers the tax burden level and high-end offer are the main competitive advantages. A number of tariff regulation measures allowing to compensate for the price discrepancy on the domestic market are proposed for innovation policy to stimulate the technological development of national producers.
本文致力于分析成本因素,主要是税收负担,这可以解释俄罗斯市场上国产电信设备与从中国和美国进口的电信设备之间的可观察价格差异。这项研究的相关性是合理的,因为这个市场在变化的地缘政治环境中对俄罗斯联邦的经济、信息和技术安全具有至关重要的意义。本文通过对现有税负计算方法的分析,发现对分行业层面的测算研究较少。基于2015-2017年42家电信设备制造业企业的数据,研究电信设备制造业成本结构,建立国内企业进口零部件税负率计算模型。该模型对跨国比较进行了调整,以反映各国税收制度的具体情况。这些计算是根据所审查的三个国家生产成本相等的假设进行的。对比分析表明,俄罗斯的税负平均高于美国(近3个百分点)和中国(约2个百分点),在经济优惠区内经营的企业。但是,这种税率上的差异并不能解释在国内市场上观察到的价格差异(高达21%)。构件成本和负债成本作为说明经济条件差异的因素也进行了考察。对其影响的粗略评估表明,在增加零部件产量的同时降低平均成本的效果(这是中国的特别特点)影响最大。对于美国进口商来说,税负水平和高端报价是主要的竞争优势。提出了若干关税管制措施,以补偿国内市场上的价格差异,作为创新政策,以刺激国家生产者的技术发展。
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引用次数: 4
Impact of Self-driving Cars for Urban Development 自动驾驶汽车对城市发展的影响
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-03-25 DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2020.1.70.84
A. Zomarev, Maria Rozhenko
The advent of self-driving vehicles is no longer just science fiction conjecture but the reality of the coming decade. Various countries have already made real progress in self-driving technologies moving beyond slogans and to meaningful action – multi-country changes in the law, for one thing. Due to the rethinking of the transport planning process and new ways to organize passengers, the urban transport system is considered a single unit, not a set of separated transport subsystems (metro, land transport, etc.). Thus far, however, there has been no extensive study of the potential urban impact of self-driving technologies upon a city and its residents. This paper presents a methodology for the urban impact assessment of self-driving transportation developed based on an appropriate analysis for the city of Moscow. To that end, the urban environment as a research subject is described as a set of environmental, transport, technological, economic, social, and regulatory blocks of indicators. We purpose to evaluate these indicators: roads congestion, need for parking spaces, changes in the employment structure, new users of automobile transport, and others. To estimate the effects on the city, we described four scenarios for the introduction of self-driving cars, differentiated by the speed of technology introduction and the development of co-using economics. To achieve maximal effect of self-driving technology, one needs to adopt a proactive transport policy, including a set of measures defined by a current survey. The survey is indispensable for future research into the impact of self-driving technology upon a city. Also, the survey has a practical sense for administrations responsibility for urban transport policy.
自动驾驶汽车的出现不再只是科幻小说中的猜测,而是未来十年的现实。各国在自动驾驶技术方面已经取得了真正的进展,超越了口号,采取了有意义的行动——首先是多国修改法律。由于对交通规划过程和新的乘客组织方式的重新思考,城市交通系统被认为是一个单一的单元,而不是一组独立的交通子系统(地铁、陆路交通等)。然而,到目前为止,还没有对自动驾驶技术对城市及其居民的潜在城市影响进行广泛的研究。本文提出了一种基于莫斯科市适当分析的自动驾驶交通城市影响评估方法。为此,城市环境作为一个研究主题被描述为一组环境、交通、技术、经济、社会和监管指标。我们旨在评估这些指标:道路拥堵、停车位需求、就业结构变化、汽车运输的新用户等。为了估计对城市的影响,我们描述了引入自动驾驶汽车的四种场景,根据技术引入的速度和共同使用经济的发展进行区分。为了实现自动驾驶技术的最大效果,需要采取积极的交通政策,包括当前调查中定义的一系列措施。这项调查对于未来研究自动驾驶技术对城市的影响是必不可少的。此外,该调查对城市交通政策的行政责任具有现实意义。
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引用次数: 6
Предпринимательские экосистемы в постсоциалистических экономиках 后社会主义经济中的创业生态系统
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-12-25 DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2019.4.6.8
A. Chepurenko
The introductory article by the guest editor reveals the essence of the concept of “entrepreneurial ecosystem” (EE), its main components, and outlines the main directions of EE research with an emphasis on countries with economies in transition presented in the papers of the special issue.
特邀编辑的导论文章揭示了“创业生态系统”(enterprise ecosystem, EE)概念的本质及其主要组成部分,并概述了EE研究的主要方向,重点是特刊论文中提出的经济转型国家。
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引用次数: 5
Structure, Challenges and Opportunities for Development of Entrepreneurial Education in Russian Universities 俄罗斯大学创业教育的结构、挑战与发展机遇
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-12-25 DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2019.4.69.81
M. Zobnina, A. Korotkov, A. Rozhkov
This study explores the creation and development of entrepreneurial education tracks in the formation of a University Entrepreneurial Ecosystem (UEE) in certain Russian universities. In particular, the ways in which these tracks promote new venture launches, the commercialization of technologies, and the development of entrepreneurial mindsets and skillsets will be explored. A panel of 21 Russian Universities was used to verify the integrated UEE model using the method of co-operative inquiry. The role of entrepreneurial courses in UEEs is illustrated herein with the use of 4 cases of Russian universities. Among the key findings of this research is that the implementation of entrepreneurship education courses configures the UEE development model centered around the education course. UEE formation begins with the personal development of individuals as the course ingrains an entrepreneurial mindset and related skills in students, and attracts entrepreneurs and business angels for mentoring roles and project development activities. Next, supporting institutions like incubators and accelerators are established from scratch, or existing ones are engaged to assist further student project development. As a result, emerging elements of UEE are actively engaged around the development of student startups. Further case analysis suggests that the professors’ academic background and entrepreneurial experience, as well as the course format (e.g. elective or compulsory) are not a necessary prerequisite for the successful initiation and development of UEE, provided the course is project based and generates a stream of student startups. Professors’ skills are complemented through the ecosystem, and some cases describe successful course launches by other ecosystem actors. It is also apparent that many universities pursue entrepreneurship education through sporadic infrastructure development, or through a more detached entrepreneurship course implementation.
本研究探讨了俄罗斯大学创业生态系统(UEE)形成过程中创业教育路径的创造与发展。特别是,将探讨这些轨道如何促进新企业的成立、技术的商业化以及企业思维和技能的发展。一个由21所俄罗斯大学组成的小组使用合作调查的方法来验证综合UEE模型。本文以俄罗斯大学的4个案例说明了创业课程在uee中的作用。本研究的主要发现之一是,创业教育课程的实施配置了以教育课程为中心的创业电子商务发展模式。UEE的形成从个人的个人发展开始,因为课程将创业思维和相关技能灌输给学生,并吸引企业家和商业天使担任指导角色和项目开发活动。其次,从零开始建立孵化器、加速器等配套机构,或者聘请现有机构协助学生项目进一步发展。因此,UEE的新兴元素积极参与学生创业的发展。进一步的案例分析表明,教授的学术背景和创业经历,以及课程形式(如选修或必修课)不是成功启动和发展UEE的必要前提,前提是课程以项目为基础,并产生一系列学生创业。教授的技能通过生态系统得到补充,有些案例描述了其他生态系统参与者成功推出的课程。同样明显的是,许多大学通过零星的基础设施建设或通过更独立的创业课程实施来开展创业教育。
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引用次数: 7
Developing Local Entrepreneurship Ecosystems by Foreign Investment 利用外资建设地方创业生态系统
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-12-25 DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2019.4.35.46
Alise Mačtama, A. Sauka
The importance of foreign direct investment in transition economies has significantly increased over the last several decades. Foreign investors are recognized as important drivers shaping the local entrepreneurial ecosystem. This paper aims to explore investors’ satisfaction with the factors previously identified as important for improving entrepreneurial ecosystems, that is, factors that both positively contribute to the development of local businesses as well as generate further foreign investment flow. Empirically we draw upon small case studies with managers of 38-42 key foreign investor companies in Latvia conducted in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. In the first data collection wave, we identify key challenges that foreign investors face in Latvia. In the following data collection waves, we measure the development in the identified areas of concern and thus the overall entrepreneurial ecosystem of Latvia. Given that Latvia is a transition country in the advanced stage of development, the focus is on issues related to productivity and value added, including the availability of high quality labor force, the efficiency of public sector, and favorable tax regimes as well as challenges posed by unethical and illegal behavior, labor shortages, and elements of uncertainty. Our results suggest that foreign investors see a number of challenges within the all afore-mentioned areas that are important parts of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. Moreover, our findings suggest that progress with regards to the improvement of certain areas such as those mentioned previously from the viewpoint of foreign investors, was relatively slow during the period of 2015-2018. Our key contribution is providing with an in- depth analysis of factors shaping the entrepreneurial ecosystem in an advanced transition economy-from the viewpoint of foreign direct investors. We explore investors’ opinions with regard to the investment climate to summarize investors’ suggestions on how the entrepreneurial ecosystem in Latvia could be further developed. Our findings provide a scope for tailor-made, targeted policy recommendations to achieve these goals.
在过去几十年里,转型期经济中外国直接投资的重要性大大增加。外国投资者被认为是塑造当地创业生态系统的重要驱动力。本文旨在探讨投资者对先前确定的改善创业生态系统的重要因素的满意度,即既对当地企业的发展有积极贡献,又能产生进一步的外国投资流的因素。在经验上,我们借鉴了2015年、2016年、2017年和2018年对拉脱维亚38-42家主要外国投资公司的经理进行的小型案例研究。在第一轮数据收集中,我们确定了外国投资者在拉脱维亚面临的主要挑战。在下面的数据收集浪潮中,我们衡量了确定的关注领域的发展,从而衡量了拉脱维亚的整体创业生态系统。鉴于拉脱维亚是一个处于高级发展阶段的转型国家,重点是与生产力和附加值相关的问题,包括高质量劳动力的可用性、公共部门的效率、有利的税收制度,以及不道德和非法行为、劳动力短缺和不确定因素带来的挑战。我们的研究结果表明,外国投资者在上述所有领域都看到了一些挑战,这些领域是创业生态系统的重要组成部分。此外,我们的研究结果表明,在2015-2018年期间,从外国投资者的角度来看,某些领域的改善进展相对缓慢,例如前面提到的那些领域。我们的主要贡献是从外国直接投资者的角度,对发达转型经济中形成创业生态系统的因素进行了深入分析。我们探讨了投资者对投资环境的看法,总结了投资者对拉脱维亚创业生态系统如何进一步发展的建议。我们的研究结果为实现这些目标提供了量身定制的、有针对性的政策建议。
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引用次数: 1
“Whirlpools” and “Safe Harbors” in the Dynamics of Industrial Specialization in Russian Regions “漩涡”和“安全港”在俄罗斯地区工业专业化的动态
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-09-25 DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2019.3.24.40
E. Kutsenko, Y. Eferin
This article analyzes sectors of specialization and sectoral dynamics in the regions of the Russian Federation from 2005 to 2015. The study is based on the methodology of the European Cluster Observatory in the 2016 edition as revised by the authors. It proposes a typology of regions depending on the number of specialization industries and the depth of sectoral development: agglomeration, diversification, specialization, and differentiation. Four types of specializations are identified based on the depth of their development and distribution among Russian regions: national leadership, distribution, concentration, and niche development. The authors implemented an approach to study regions through alternative scenarios of sectoral development over a ten-year period: occurrence, strengthening, extinction, and disappearance. The study identifies various structural models that combine the implementation of the described scenarios in relation to various specializations within a particular region. It is shown that the scale and intensity of structural changes largely depends on the region’s proximity to millionaire cities but does not always directly affect economic growth rates. The authors introduce the concepts of “sinkholes”, “streams”, and “safe harbors”, which describe the types of regions with a different type of structural changes that occur depending on the presence or proximity of the millionaire city.
本文分析了2005年至2015年俄罗斯联邦各地区的专业化部门和部门动态。该研究基于作者修订的欧洲星团观测站2016年版的方法。它根据专业化产业的数量和部门发展的深度提出了一种区域类型:集聚、多样化、专业化和差异化。根据其在俄罗斯各地区的发展和分布深度,确定了四种专业类型:国家领导、分布、集中和利基发展。作者采用了一种方法,通过十年内部门发展的替代情景来研究区域:发生、加强、灭绝和消失。该研究确定了各种结构模型,这些模型结合了特定区域内各种专业化的所述情景的实施。研究表明,结构变化的规模和强度在很大程度上取决于该地区与百万富翁城市的距离,但并不总是直接影响经济增长率。作者介绍了“天坑”、“溪流”和“安全港”的概念,这些概念描述了根据百万富翁城市的存在或接近程度而发生不同类型结构变化的地区类型。
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引用次数: 18
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Foresight and STI Governance
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