We studied the impact of Affordable Care Act navigator programs on health insurance coverage, using the 80 percent cut in program funding under the Trump administration as a natural experiment. Our study design exploited county-level differences in the program prior to funding cuts. We did not find that cuts to the program significantly decreased rates of marketplace coverage or any health insurance coverage by 2019; however, our estimates could not rule out marketplace coverage declines of up to 2.7 percent (point estimate -1.3 percent, 95 percent CI: 2.7 percent to 0.1 percent), or total coverage declines of up to 1.8 percentage points (point estimate -0.8 percentage points or -1.2 percent, 95 percent CI: -1.8 to 0.2). Cuts to the navigator program significantly decreased marketplace coverage and total coverage among lower-income adults, and significantly decreased total coverage among adults under age 45, Hispanic adults, and adults who speak a language other than English at home. We found no significant impact of the cuts on Medicaid enrollment (95 percent CI: -1.9 percentage points to 0.5 percentage points); most uninsured people in the states we studied lived in locations that had not implemented Medicaid eligibility expansions. These findings suggest that before the funding cuts, navigators were helping underserved consumers obtain coverage.
Widespread opioid misuse suggests a potential for increased fatal car crashes. However, opioid use may not necessarily lead to additional crashes if drivers respond to opioid prevalence by substituting away from more inebriating intoxicants like alcohol. Combining data on local opioid prescription rates and car crashes from the Fatality Analysis and Reporting System, we use two-way fixed effects models to test the direction of the association between prescribing intensity and crash fatalities between 2007 and 2016. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in the local prescription rate is associated with a 1 percent increase in the number of driver deaths in motor vehicle accidents. The association is robust to several model specifications, and isolated to drivers most affected by the opioid crisis: males and 25 to 34 year-olds.