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Living Arrangements and Socio-Economic Conditions among Egyptian Elderly. The Determinants of Late-Life Family Structures 埃及老年人的生活安排和社会经济条件。晚年家庭结构的决定因素
IF 1.9 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-08-06 DOI: 10.6092/ISSN.1973-2201/8736
A. Angeli, M. Novelli
Egypt is facing the dual challenges of being both young and rapidly transitioning. Population structure is changing, with main effects on several dimensions of individual and social life, which include family structures and relations. We aim to analyze the conditions of the elderly and to evaluate whether or not household structures, as well as the living arrangements of the elderly, have changed in recent years. Moreover, we aim to individuate the determinants of late-life living arrangements: independent living or co-residence. Trends in late-life living arrangements and intergenerational ties derive fromthree rounds of the Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) carried out in 1998, 2006 and 2012. To assess which respondents’ characteristics are related to the individual living arrangement a multinomial regression model, where the dependent variables are represented by the household types, has been implemented in 2012 data. Men and women live the latter part of their life in different living arrangements and relationships. Moreover, findings underlined situations of poor material conditions and poor health. Data confirma need for policy interventions to meet long-term needs of the elderly, taking into account the raising trend toward living alone or in households with only elderly members. In particular, it is essential to discover the channels of intervention in the rural areas of the country to protect the elderly from poverty, as many researchers have already pointed out.
埃及面临着年轻化和快速转型的双重挑战。人口结构正在发生变化,主要影响到个人和社会生活的几个方面,包括家庭结构和关系。我们的目的是分析老年人的状况,并评估近年来家庭结构以及老年人的生活安排是否发生了变化。此外,我们的目标是个性化晚年生活安排的决定因素:独立生活或共同居住。晚年生活安排和代际关系的趋势源于1998年、2006年和2012年进行的三轮埃及劳动力市场小组调查。为了评估哪些受访者的特征与个人生活安排有关,2012年的数据中采用了多项回归模型,其中因变量由家庭类型表示。男人和女人的后半生生活在不同的生活安排和关系中。此外,调查结果强调了物质条件差和健康状况差的情况。数据证实了政策干预的必要性,以满足老年人的长期需求,同时考虑到独居或只有老年成员的家庭的增长趋势。特别是,正如许多研究人员已经指出的那样,必须在该国农村地区找到干预渠道,以保护老年人免受贫困。
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引用次数: 1
Do Poverty and Economic Inequality Matter for Neonatal Mortality? International Comparison of Macro-Level Deterministic Patterns of Early-Age Mortality 贫困和经济不平等对新生儿死亡率有影响吗?早期死亡率宏观确定模式的国际比较
IF 1.9 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-08-06 DOI: 10.6092/ISSN.1973-2201/8566
Filippo Temporin
While socioeconomic determinants of infant mortality have received substantial attention in the literature, determinants of neonatal and post-neonatal mortality have rarely been analysed and compared. By making use ofWorld Bank data, this country-level study aims to highlight different patterns of association of poverty and income inequality with mortality occurring in the neonatal and post-neonatal periods, controlling for other socioeconomic variables. Poverty is found to be the major determinant of both mortality outcomes, while economic inequality is not a predictor of early-age mortality. This is perhaps because this analysis considers only countries where many households may lack resources for an adequate living standard; in such a context, the absolute level of poverty, rather than its distribution, has an effect on infant health. Moreover, a non-monetary manifestation of poverty, namely access to clean water, is a predictor of both mortality outcomes, probably due to its association with water-borne diseases. By identifying the socioeconomic factors associated with early-age mortality, this study has implications for social policies designed to tackle neonatal and post-neonatal mortality and can partly explain the stagnation in neonatal mortality rates observed over the last decades.
虽然婴儿死亡率的社会经济决定因素在文献中得到了大量关注,但新生儿和新生儿后期死亡率的决定因素很少被分析和比较。通过使用世界银行的数据,这项国家级研究旨在强调贫困和收入不平等与新生儿和新生儿后期死亡率之间的不同关联模式,同时控制其他社会经济变量。研究发现,贫困是两种死亡率结果的主要决定因素,而经济不平等并不是早期死亡率的预测因素。这也许是因为这一分析只考虑了许多家庭可能缺乏足够生活水平资源的国家;在这种情况下,对婴儿健康产生影响的是贫困的绝对程度,而不是贫困的分布。此外,贫穷的非货币表现,即获得清洁水的机会,是两种死亡率结果的预测指标,可能是因为它与水媒疾病有关。通过确定与早期死亡率相关的社会经济因素,本研究对旨在解决新生儿和新生儿后期死亡率的社会政策具有启示意义,并可以部分解释过去几十年观察到的新生儿死亡率停滞不前的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Correlates of Inter-Districts Migrations in Tanzania. A Gravity-Type Modeling Approach 坦桑尼亚地区间移民的相关性。一种重力型建模方法
IF 1.9 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-08-06 DOI: 10.6092/ISSN.1973-2201/8538
Elena Pirani, M. Marino, A. Petrucci
In this paper, we investigate the role of environmental factors as potential drivers of internal migrations in Tanzania, along with a number of socio-economic factors traditionally identified as key correlates. Climate changes are expected to exert pressure on areas which mainly rely on agricultural activities and, as a result, act as push factors for population movements. Yet, understanding the association between migration, environmental conditions, and objectively-determined characteristics of origin and destination territories remains a challenging task, especially in developing countries. In this study, we follow a macro approach and focus on migration flows across Tanzanian districts. By implementing a gravity-type model, we analyse the potential impact of environmental shocks and socio-economic characteristics of both the area of origin and destination on inter-districts migration.
在本文中,我们调查了环境因素作为坦桑尼亚境内移民潜在驱动因素的作用,以及一些传统上被确定为关键相关因素的社会经济因素。预计气候变化将给主要依赖农业活动的地区带来压力,从而成为人口流动的推动因素。然而,了解移民、环境条件以及客观确定的原籍地和目的地特征之间的联系仍然是一项具有挑战性的任务,尤其是在发展中国家。在这项研究中,我们采用宏观方法,重点关注坦桑尼亚各地区的移民流动。通过实施重力型模型,我们分析了环境冲击和原籍和目的地地区的社会经济特征对地区间移民的潜在影响。
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引用次数: 0
Demographic Research Perspectives on the Developing Countries. An Editorial Note 发展中国家的人口研究前景。编者按
IF 1.9 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-08-06 DOI: 10.6092/ISSN.1973-2201/9756
F. Scalone
We collect and present five research articles on some urgent demographic issues affecting the population in the global south. The studies focus on child mortality, fertility tendencies, migration and the aging process, considering countries such as Egypt (Angeli, Ambrosetti and Novelli), Tanzania (Pirani, Marino and Petrucci) and Bangladesh (Puglisi and Busetta), while one article measures the effects of inequality on early life survival in 79 developing countries. Despite the international authorities’ many efforts to improve living conditions and remove social and economic disparities, at the dawn of the XXI century, too many child and maternal deaths are still registered in many developing countries, and infant and child mortality can still, sadly, be considered an active research field. Following the debate on the effects of inequality, Filippo Temporin investigates the role of poverty on neonatal mortality in 79 developing countries, showing how the absolute material conditions, such as the availability of clean water, matter more than the monetary measures. However, poverty has other dimensions that impact child mortality. As Puglisi and Busetta show using individual data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), parental education and the mothers’ education levels affect under-five mortality in Bangladesh. According to these results, to significantly reduce infant and child mortality in poor settings, economic development needs to be accompanied by a more general improvement in female social conditions. However, new issues can arise from the demographic transitions that are rapidly reaching the final stages in many countries of the global south and that are quickly changing the age structures. As a result, in the future, a growing increase in the proportion of the older population will significantly affect the fragile health and social systems of these countries that are already suffering from a lack of social services, exacerbating the poor living conditions of the older population. In fact, older people who live alone in precarious material and health conditions will need more care and social assistance. Considering Egypt, the most populous Arab country, Angeli and Novelli explore the tendencies in late-life arrangements, highlighting the association between the household types and the social characteristics of the elderly.
我们收集并呈现了五篇关于影响全球南方人口的一些紧迫人口问题的研究文章。这些研究的重点是儿童死亡率、生育趋势、移民和老龄化进程,考虑到埃及(Angeli、Ambrosetti和Novelli)、坦桑尼亚(Pirani、Marino和Petrucci)和孟加拉国(Puglisi和Busetta)等国家,而一篇文章衡量了不平等对79个发展中国家早期生命存活率的影响。尽管国际当局为改善生活条件和消除社会和经济差距作出了许多努力,但在二十一世纪初,许多发展中国家仍然登记了太多的儿童和产妇死亡,令人遗憾的是,婴儿和儿童死亡率仍然可以被视为一个活跃的研究领域。在关于不平等影响的辩论之后,Filippo Temporin调查了79个发展中国家贫困对新生儿死亡率的影响,显示了绝对的物质条件,如清洁水的可用性,如何比货币措施更重要。然而,贫穷还有影响儿童死亡率的其他方面。正如Puglisi和Busetta利用人口与健康调查(DHS)的个人数据所表明的那样,父母的教育程度和母亲的教育水平影响着孟加拉国五岁以下儿童的死亡率。根据这些结果,要大幅度降低贫穷环境中的婴儿和儿童死亡率,经济发展必须伴随着妇女社会状况的更普遍改善。然而,在全球南方许多国家,人口转变正迅速进入最后阶段,并迅速改变年龄结构,这可能会产生新的问题。因此,今后老年人口比例的日益增加将严重影响这些国家脆弱的保健和社会制度,这些国家已经缺乏社会服务,使老年人口的恶劣生活条件更加恶化。事实上,在不稳定的物质和健康条件下独自生活的老年人将需要更多的照顾和社会援助。以人口最多的阿拉伯国家埃及为例,Angeli和Novelli探讨了晚年安排的趋势,强调了家庭类型与老年人社会特征之间的联系。
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引用次数: 0
Ideal Family Size and Fertility in Egypt: An Overview of Recent Trends 埃及理想家庭规模和生育率:近期趋势概述
IF 1.9 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-08-06 DOI: 10.6092/ISSN.1973-2201/8811
E. Ambrosetti, A. Angeli, M. Novelli
Egypt is already the most populous Arab country in the world with 93 million citizens in 2016 which may grow to about 120 million by 2030 if the same level of fertility continues. This paper aims to offer an overview of the evolution over time of the ideal number of children in Egypt, assessing previous researches and giving a particular emphasis on most recent data on such topic. In a context of raising fertility, whose causes are still unknown, we test the persistence of a high ideal number of children among younger cohorts.
埃及已经是世界上人口最多的阿拉伯国家,2016年有9300万公民,如果生育率保持不变,到2030年可能会增加到1.2亿左右。本文旨在概述埃及理想儿童数量随时间的演变,评估以前的研究,并特别强调有关此类主题的最新数据。在提高生育率的背景下,其原因尚不清楚,我们测试了年轻群体中理想数量较高的儿童的持久性。
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引用次数: 9
THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION ON UNDER-FIVE MORTALITY: INDIVIDUAL AND COMMUNITY-LEVEL EFFECTS IN BANGLADESH 教育对五岁以下儿童死亡率的影响:孟加拉国个人和社区层面的影响
IF 1.9 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-08-06 DOI: 10.6092/ISSN.1973-2201/8584
C. Puglisi, A. Busetta
This paper investigates the relationship between parental education and child survival, considering both the influence of the maternal and paternal educational level and the influence of communitylevel male and female education on under-five mortality. The research is focused on Bangladesh, a country where the impressive decline in the under-five mortality rate between 1990 and 2015 was attributed both to female empowerment and to the increase in the general level of education in the country. Using the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey from 2014, this paper investigates both the effect of individual-level parental education and of community-level education on under-five mortality, through a multilevel logistic regression analysis. Our results confirm the importance of individual-level education, with a stronger effect of the educational level of mothers compared to that of fathers. This last result disappears once we control for educational assortative mating. At the contextual level, the average level of female education in the community only slightly influences under-five survival, whereas male schooling does not at all impact the chances of survival of a child aged under five.
本文调查了父母教育与儿童生存之间的关系,同时考虑了母亲和父亲的教育水平以及社区层面的男性和女性教育对五岁以下儿童死亡率的影响。这项研究的重点是孟加拉国,1990年至2015年间,该国五岁以下儿童死亡率大幅下降,这既归因于女性赋权,也归因于该国总体教育水平的提高。本文利用2014年的孟加拉国人口与健康调查,通过多层次逻辑回归分析,调查了个人层面的父母教育和社区层面的教育对五岁以下儿童死亡率的影响。我们的研究结果证实了个人水平教育的重要性,与父亲相比,母亲的教育水平影响更大。一旦我们控制了教育分类交配,最后一个结果就会消失。在背景层面上,社区中女性教育的平均水平只对五岁以下儿童的生存产生轻微影响,而男性教育根本不会影响五岁以下孩子的生存机会。
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引用次数: 1
Bivariate Quantile Functions and their Applications to Reliability Modelling 二元分位数函数及其在可靠性建模中的应用
IF 1.9 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.6092/ISSN.1973-2201/8024
B. Vineshkumar, N. Nair
In this paper we propose a new definition of bivariate quantile function suited for reliability modelling and illustrate its applications. The bivariate hazard and mean residual quantile functions are defined and their properties are studied. Examples of generating new quantile functions and application of the results to model data are provided.
本文提出了适合于可靠性建模的二元分位数函数的新定义,并举例说明了它的应用。定义了二元危险函数和平均残差分位数函数,并研究了它们的性质。给出了生成新分位数函数和将结果应用于模型数据的实例。
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引用次数: 7
Establishment of Preliminary Test Estimators and Preliminary Test Confidence Intervals for Measures of Reliability of an Exponentiated Distribution Based on Type-II Censoring 基于II型截尾的指数分布可靠性测度的初步检验估计和初步检验置信区间的建立
IF 1.9 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.6092/ISSN.1973-2201/8543
Ajit Chaturvedi, Anshika Bhatnagar
The present paper has developed the preliminary test estimators (PTEs) of the model parameter raised to certain power, σ p , and the two measures of reliability, namely, the reliability function, R(t ) and the reliability of an item or a system, P of an exponentiated distribution, under Type- II censoring, based on their uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimators (UMVUEs) and maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs). The preliminary test confidence intervals (PTCIs) are also developed for σ, R(t ) and P based on their UMVUEs and MLEs. Further, the paper has derived expression for coverage probability of the PTCI of the model parameter, σ. Merits of the proposed PTEs are also established through analysis of simulated numerical data.
本文提出了模型参数提高到一定幂的初步检验估计量(PTEs),σp,以及可靠性的两个度量,即可靠性函数R(t)和指数分布的项目或系统的可靠性p,在II型截尾下,基于它们的一致最小方差无偏估计量(UMVUE)和最大似然估计量(MLE)。基于σ、R(t)和P的UMVUE和MLE,还为它们开发了初步测试置信区间(PTCI)。此外,本文还导出了模型参数σ的PTCI覆盖概率的表达式。通过对模拟数值数据的分析,也确定了所提出的PTE的优点。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation in Inverse Weibull Distribution Based on Randomly Censored Data 基于随机截尾数据的反威布尔分布估计
IF 1.9 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.6092/ISSN.1973-2201/8414
Kapil Kumar, I. Kumar
This article deals with the estimation of the parameters and reliability characteristics in inverse Weibull (IW) distribution based on the random censoring model. The censoring distribution is also taken as an IW distribution. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters, survival and failure rate functions are derived. Asymptotic confidence intervals of the parameters based on the Fisher information matrix are constructed. Bayes estimators of the parameters, survival and failure rate functions under squared error loss function using non-informative and gamma informative priors are developed. Furthermore, Bayes estimates are obtained using Tierney-Kadane's approximation method and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Also, highest posterior density (HPD) credible intervals of the parameters based on MCMC techniques are constructed. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of various estimates. Finally, a randomly censored real data set supports the estimation procedures developed in this article.
本文研究了基于随机截尾模型的反威布尔分布中的参数估计和可靠性特性。审查分发也被视为IW分发。导出了参数、生存率和失败率函数的最大似然估计量。基于Fisher信息矩阵构造了参数的渐近置信区间。利用非信息先验和伽玛信息先验,建立了误差平方损失函数下的参数、生存率和失败率函数的贝叶斯估计。此外,使用Tierney-Kadane近似方法和马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)技术获得了贝叶斯估计。此外,基于MCMC技术构造了参数的最高后验密度(HPD)可信区间。进行了一项模拟研究,以比较各种估计的性能。最后,一个随机截尾的真实数据集支持本文开发的估计程序。
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引用次数: 12
The Odd Log-Logistic Power Series Family of Distributions: Properties and Applications 奇对数Logistic幂级数分布族的性质及其应用
IF 1.9 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.6092/ISSN.1973-2201/8115
M. Goldoust, Sadegh Rezaei, M. Alizadeh, S. Nadarajah
A new family of continuous distributions obtained by compounding the odd log-logistic and power series distributions is introduced. The mathematical properties of the proposed family are discussed. The estimation of the parameters is considered by the maximum likelihood method. In order to assess the finite sample performance of maximum likelihood estimators, simulation studies are performed. Finally, the potentiality of the family is illustrated by means of applications to two real data sets.
介绍了一类新的连续分布族,它是由奇对数逻辑分布和幂级数分布组合而成的。讨论了所提出的族的数学性质。参数的估计是通过最大似然法来考虑的。为了评估最大似然估计的有限样本性能,进行了仿真研究。最后,通过对两个真实数据集的应用,说明了该族的潜力。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Statistica
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