Asian Economic Policy Review最新文献_第3页

Comment on “Challenges in Searching for Vietnam's Growth Drivers Through 2030” 就 "寻找 2030 年越南增长动力面临的挑战 "发表评论

IF 4.5 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Asian Economic Policy Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12467

Mai Fujita

Starting as one of the poorest countries in the world in the late 1980s, Vietnam has grown remarkably over the past decades. The country now aims to become a developing country with modern industry and be an upper-middle-income country by 2030 and a high-income country by 2045. Against this backdrop, Can and Dang's (2024) timely and comprehensive account of the economic policy issues faced by Vietnam is highly welcome. Can and Dang's main argument is that Vietnam needs not only to extend the existing growth drivers but also initiate new ones. I have found the proposed list of new drivers as well as the set of recommendations both exhaustive and up to date, reflecting the latest changes such as US–China tensions, the digital transformation, and the green transformation. In the following, I would like to look at the macropicture offered by Can and Dang (2024) from somewhat different angles, focusing on the ways for moving the policy debate forward.To start with, Vietnam's effort to revamp its model of economic growth is not new. On the contrary, efforts to build new growth drivers have been going on for more than a decade. A brief discussion of the historical context would be useful. Traditionally, the country's economic growth had been largely dependent on low-cost labor and, in the late 2000s, increasingly on intensive capital investment. This happened in the context of economic reforms and international economic integration which provided Vietnam access to the global market. By around 2010, the sustainability of this traditional growth model had already been called into question, which led to the launching of “renovation of the economic growth model” into one which emphasizes quality, productivity, efficiency, and competitiveness. This was clearly highlighted in the socioeconomic development strategy 2011–2020 and further in the succeeding 10-year strategy for 2021–2030. Policy efforts have been ongoing with respect to most of the new growth drivers pointed out by Can and Dang (2024).Indeed, if we look closely into each of these areas, we find that Vietnam has made step-by-step yet considerable strides in policy formulation and implementation. Let us take the case of private sector development. Since 2014, the Vietnamese government started to issue annual “resolutions” aimed at improving the business environment, setting specific targets according to the World Bank's “Doing business” rankings. The steady progress in the reduction and simplification of business conditions and administrative procedures is demonstrated by a recent report based on annual survey of private enterprises, showing that the businesses' burden of regulatory compliance has been on a decreasing trend since 2014, though further improvement is needed with respect to issues such as informal charges (Malesky et al., 2022). Beyond policy developments, the realities of the private sector also indicate cont

越南要制定一套真正有效的政策，就必须明确优先事项，缩小关注范围。

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引用次数: 0

Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia: Policies and Progress 印度尼西亚的财政可持续性：政策与进展

IF 4.5 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Asian Economic Policy Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12468

Vid Adrison

This paper investigates fiscal sustainability in Indonesia and draws comparisons with Malaysia and Thailand. The analysis encompasses an evaluation of fiscal rules, fiscal performance, and an assessment of fiscal sustainability across these three countries. Given that the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic affected budget deficits in each country starting in 2020, the empirical assessment utilizes data from 2010 to 2019. Despite persistent fiscal deficits in each country, the results suggest that all three countries maintain fiscal sustainability. A more detailed analysis of the Indonesian case focuses on government revenue and expenditure. The discussion addresses challenges in these areas, aiming to identify feasible policy options for enhancing fiscal sustainability in Indonesia.

本文研究了印度尼西亚的财政可持续性，并与马来西亚和泰国进行了比较。分析包括对财政规则、财政表现的评估，以及对这三个国家财政可持续性的评估。鉴于冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行从 2020 年开始影响到每个国家的预算赤字，实证评估使用了 2010 年至 2019 年的数据。尽管每个国家都存在持续的财政赤字，但结果表明这三个国家都保持了财政的可持续性。对印度尼西亚案例的更详细分析侧重于政府收入和支出。讨论涉及了这些领域所面临的挑战，旨在确定提高印尼财政可持续性的可行政策方案。

引用次数: 0

Comment on “ASEAN Economic Integration: Addressing Challenges and Embracing Opportunities” 评论 "东盟经济一体化：应对挑战，迎接机遇" 发表评论

IF 4.5 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Asian Economic Policy Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12465

Marcus Noland

Park (2024) is an accessible overview of the current state of ASEAN, focusing on issues relating to trade integration and the role of regional and global value chains, with particular attention paid to the role of China.The original ASEAN-5 (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines) constituted the second wave of Asian reforming economies, following in the wake of Taiwan and South Korea. Eventually they were joined by oil exporter Brunei, and four lower income economies, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar, forming the current ASEAN membership.The ASEAN economies have generally performed well relative to comparators globally. They have benefitted from technological and policy advances which have supported the rise of cross-border value chains and their proximity to China, which has emerged as a hub. Since 1995, there is clear evidence of convergence in per capita across the membership, though it unclear to what this reflects a simple catch-up process stimulated by domestic policy reforms, and to what extent it can be ascribed to membership in ASEAN per se.Whatever the impetus, Park documents a clear deepening of regional integration, much of it associated with regional supply chains linked to China. The electronics and automotive sectors have been prominent in this process. ASEAN will presumably remain important in automobiles and parts, through the shift to electric vehicles, which use fewer parts than conventional internal combustion vehicles, will imply a restructuring and possibly a diminution of cross-border exchange. Similarly, increasing industrial policy interventions by the United States, European Union, Japan, and others will affect the structure of the semiconductor industry and electronics more broadly. Moving forward, these regional supply chain networks will be affected by both China's policies and that country's role in the global economy.Park's (2024) concluding section describes some of the policy agenda that ASEAN faces, some of its successes, and some successes that have yet to be realized. Implicit is the basic challenge that the group has faced from the start: how far can a diverse organization go in addressing collective action problems with a model based on consensus with little formal structure? Park observes that “enforcing AEC commitments among the member state should be the region's top priority,” but does not address how that might be done.For example, can ASEAN form a coherent regional response to global warming, arguably the existential issue of our time? ASEAN has deliberately eschewed the legal-bureaucratic model of the European Union, but one wonders if at some point, more binding obligations and enforcement mechanisms are necessary. Is this model adequate for the future? If not, how does ASEAN build adequate institutions? Given the membership's diversity, what role is there for multi-speed commitments (and potentially enforcemen

最初的东盟五国（新加坡、马来西亚、泰国、印度尼西亚和菲律宾）是继台湾和韩国之后的第二波亚洲改革经济体。最终，石油出口国文莱和四个收入较低的经济体越南、老挝、柬埔寨和缅甸加入了东盟五国，形成了目前的东盟成员国。技术和政策的进步支持了跨境价值链的崛起，加上毗邻中国，中国已成为东盟的枢纽，东盟经济体从中受益。自 1995 年以来，有明显的证据表明，各成员国的人均水平趋于一致，但目前还不清楚这在多大程度上反映了国内政策改革刺激下的简单追赶过程，以及在多大程度上可以归因于东盟成员资格本身。电子和汽车行业在这一过程中表现突出。与传统内燃汽车相比，电动汽车使用的零部件更少，因此，向电动汽车的转变将意味着结构调整，并可能减少跨境交流。同样，美国、欧盟、日本和其他国家不断加强的产业政策干预也将影响半导体产业和更广泛的电子产品的结构。未来，这些区域供应链网络将受到中国政策和中国在全球经济中的作用的影响。Park（2024 年）的结论部分描述了东盟面临的一些政策议程、取得的一些成功以及尚未实现的一些成功。其中隐含着该组织从一开始就面临的基本挑战：一个多元化的组织在解决集体行动问题时，能在多大程度上采用一种以共识为基础、几乎没有正式结构的模式？朴槿惠认为，"在成员国中执行东盟经济共同体的承诺应是该地区的首要任务"，但却没有谈到如何才能做到这一点。例如，东盟能否对全球变暖这一可说是我们这个时代的生存问题形成一致的地区对策？东盟有意避开了欧盟的法律-官僚模式，但人们不禁要问，在某些时候，是否需要更具约束力的义务和执行机制？这种模式是否足以应对未来？如果不是，东盟如何建立适当的机构？考虑到成员国的多样性，多速承诺（以及可能的强制执行津贴）或特殊和差别待遇又能发挥什么作用呢？我的猜测是，大部分政策改革议程可以在没有区域合作的情况下实施。哪些关键问题是地区承诺的关键？即使大部分议程可以单方面实施，但这并不意味着东盟不能发挥作用。示范效应很重要。20 世纪 60 年代末，新加坡开始了大范围的改革，那是在观察了台湾和韩国类似改革的影响之后。新加坡随后的经验成为东盟五国其他经济体改革的典范。同样，它们的经验也成为印度支那较贫穷国家改革者的指路明灯。Park 提到了东盟在各种政策问题上的一系列举措。即使这些具体计划不是特别有效，但只要让国家层面的政策制定者和政治家们了解其他地方的同行们在做什么，就会产生巨大的影响。从这个意义上说，分析国家层面的改革和地区承诺的相对影响可能既困难又最终无足轻重。

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引用次数: 0

Comment on “ASEAN Economic Integration: Addressing Challenges and Embracing Opportunities” 评论 "东盟经济一体化：应对挑战，迎接机遇" 发表评论

IF 4.5 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Asian Economic Policy Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12463

Jong-Wha Lee

Over the past several decades, the economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have made significant progresses in terms of per capita income and living standards. This economic growth in ASEAN has been accompanied by a concurrent increase in cross-border exchanges and a deepening of trade and investment within the region. The interconnectedness was supported by a strong trend of firms building supply chains to cater to both Asian and global markets.Park (2024) explores the macroeconomic and developmental policies necessary to stimulate economic integration and growth within ASEAN while also discussing the current outlook and risks facing the region. The paper offers insights into economic transformation and integration through trade and investment in ASEAN, serving as a useful reference for readers seeking to comprehend the status and future challenges of ASEAN economies.I have a few comments.Section 3 of Park (2024) provides valuable data and insights into ASEAN's economic integration via trade and investment, emphasizing the significant role of China in the region's trade. ASEAN's merchandise trade with China accounted for 18.6% of total ASEAN trade, comparable to its trade among ASEAN members at 22.3% in 2022.This section also analyzes the progress of global value chains (GVC) and regional value chains (RVC) in ASEAN. The GVC participation rate, defined as the share of value-added contents in ASEAN's gross exports exported for further processing overseas, reached 78.2% in 2022. Meanwhile, the ASEAN-to-ASEAN gross RVC participation rate, defined as “the share of ASEAN's merchandise exports that involves production in at least two economies using cross-border production networks to total gross exports with linkages all within the ASEAN region” (ADB, 2023), reached 54.8%. Therefore, ASEAN's RVC intensity is much lower than ASEAN's GVC intensity. This low RVC intensity must be associated with the important role of other Asian economies, notably China, in the global and regional production networks of ASEAN, as well as the industry and trade structure of ASEAN economies. We expect that ASEAN will continue to emerge as one of the most important regional hubs for GVC as the region experiences strong growth and develops more technologically intensive industries. The region may also witness a heightened intensity of RVC with deeper intraregional trade integration and industry upgrading.Section 3 also emphasizes that foreign direct investment (FDI) has played a pivotal role in driving economic growth and transformation within the ASEAN region. It is important to highlight that the strong economic connections between ASEAN and East Asian economies, particularly with China, played a significant role in attracting FDI to the region. Historically, the USA, European Union (EU), and Japan have been the primary sources of inbound FDI for ASEAN. However, with the e

在过去的几十年里，东南亚国家联盟（东盟）的经济在人均收入和生活水平方面取得了长足的进步。在东盟经济增长的同时，区域内的跨境交流也在增加，贸易和投资也在深化。Park（2024 年）探讨了促进东盟经济一体化和增长所需的宏观经济和发展政策，同时还讨论了该地区目前的前景和面临的风险。Park (2024) 的第 3 章提供了有关东盟通过贸易和投资实现经济一体化的宝贵数据和见解，强调了中国在该地区贸易中的重要作用。东盟与中国的商品贸易占东盟贸易总额的 18.6%，与 2022 年东盟成员国之间 22.3%的贸易额相当。本节还分析了东盟全球价值链（GVC）和区域价值链（RVC）的进展情况。全球价值链参与率的定义是东盟出口总值中出口到海外深加工的增值内容所占的份额，2022 年达到 78.2%。同时，东盟到东盟的区域价值链总参与率达到 54.8%，该参与率的定义是 "东盟商品出口中至少有两个经济体利用跨境生产网络进行生产的份额，占东盟地区内有联系的总出口的份额"（亚洲开发银行，2023 年）。因此，东盟的区域价值链强度远低于东盟的全球价值链强度。这种较低的区域价值链强度肯定与其他亚洲经济体（尤其是中国）在东盟的全球和区域生产网络中的重要作用以及东盟经济体的产业和贸易结构有关。我们预计，随着东盟的强劲增长和技术密集型产业的发展，东盟将继续成为全球价值链最重要的区域中心之一。第 3 节还强调，外国直接投资（FDI）在推动东盟地区经济增长和转型方面发挥了关键作用。需要强调的是，东盟与东亚经济体，特别是与中国之间的紧密经济联系在吸引外国直接投资方面发挥了重要作用。从历史上看，美国、欧盟（EU）和日本一直是东盟外来直接投资的主要来源。然而，随着区域供应链的扩大，来自其他亚洲经济体的投资也出现了显著增长。中国已成为该地区生产共享网络的重要组装中心。然而，由于劳动力成本上升以及近期与美国贸易冲突的影响，中国在全球价值链中的角色正在发生变化。Park 认为，这些变化可能会给东盟带来新的机遇和挑战，因为跨国公司可能会探索其他地区的生产基地。最近的研究探讨了中美贸易和技术争端对全球市场贸易和外国直接投资重新分配的影响。国际货币基金组织（2023a, 2023b）显示，美国对中国的外商直接投资和资本流动大幅下降。美国和欧盟实施的政策旨在加强战略部门的国内生产，减少来自不结盟外国供应商（尤其是中国）的脆弱性。Freund 等人（2023 年）的研究表明，虽然美国从中国的进口迅速下降，尤其是在战略部门，但其通过区域价值链从某些与中国密切相关的东盟国家的进口却在增加。分析地缘经济分化的潜力以及由此导致的亚洲全球和区域价值链的变化至关重要。此外，关于东盟金融一体化的讨论，尤其是与中国影响力相关的讨论，也将使读者受益匪浅。我认为，Park（2024 年）在第 4 节中关于保持该地区增长势头和一体化的政策建议的讨论简明扼要，很有价值。正如 Park 所强调的，东盟国家的主要任务应包括基础设施建设、数字化、服务贸易自由化、促进灵活的劳动力市场以及促进外国直接投资。

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引用次数: 0

ASEAN Economic Integration: Addressing Challenges and Embracing Opportunities 东盟经济一体化：应对挑战，迎接机遇

IF 4.5 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Asian Economic Policy Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12462

Cyn-Young Park

This paper examines the macroeconomic and development policies to spur economic integration and growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It reviews how economic transformation and integration have fueled growth and job creation in the region. ASEAN's increased participation in global and regional value chains, with the People's Republic of China (PRC) as a regional hub, laid the solid foundation of regional production networks. However, with the changing role of the PRC in global value chains, the region needs to renew policy initiatives to address the development challenges and seize new growth opportunities with its single market goals. The analysis suggests the region requires strategic plans for infrastructure development, digitalization, and greater integration reinforced by the removal of trade barriers, increased labor mobility, and foreign direct investment mobilization. The region's successful future also depends on cooperative policy efforts around developing e-government and digital value chains, strengthening micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises and startups, and building smart cities.

本文探讨了促进东南亚国家联盟（东盟）经济一体化和增长的宏观经济和发展政策。它回顾了经济转型和一体化是如何促进该地区的增长和创造就业机会的。以中华人民共和国（PRC）为区域枢纽，东盟越来越多地参与全球和区域价值链，为区域生产网络奠定了坚实的基础。然而，随着中华人民共和国在全球价值链中的角色不断变化，该地区需要更新政策措施，以应对发展挑战，抓住新的增长机遇，实现单一市场目标。分析表明，该地区需要制定基础设施发展、数字化和加强一体化的战略计划，并通过消除贸易壁垒、提高劳动力流动性和调动外国直接投资来加强这些计划。该地区成功的未来还取决于围绕发展电子政务和数字价值链、加强中小微型企业和初创企业以及建设智慧城市的合作政策努力。

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引用次数: 0

Comment on “Flexible Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence from ASEAN” 评论 "灵活的通胀目标和宏观经济表现：来自东盟的证据"

IF 4.5 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Asian Economic Policy Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-18 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12466

Somkiat Tangkitvanich

Nookhwun and Waiyawatjakorn (2024) represent the first systematic empirical assessment of Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN) inflation targeting frameworks. Specifically, Nookhwun and Waiyawatjakorn examine the role of ASEAN countries' inflation targeting frameworks in reducing inflation levels and volatility, stabilizing economic growth, and maintaining a robust financial system. Nookhwun and Waiyawatjakorn conclude that the frameworks primarily aid in reducing inflation levels. Yet, they also highlight that ASEAN nations, grappling with capital flow volatility and domestic financial imbalances, have evolved their monetary frameworks to integrate diverse policy instruments like foreign exchange interventions, macroprudential policies, and capital flow measures.Despite its brevity and clarity, Nookhwun and Waiyawatjakorn (2024) could be enhanced by briefly discussing various complementary policies and public perceptions of inflation.My first comment relates to complementary policies, in particular, fiscal policy. In addition to the inflation targeting framework, Nookhwun and Waiyawatjakorn note that ASEAN countries also use energy subsidies, price control, and other methods to address short-term global commodity market shocks and inflation. However, they fail to discuss fiscal policy's role in stabilizing economic growth during major crises like the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The surge in public debt in many ASEAN countries, due to unprecedented government spending, underscores fiscal policy's significance in economic stability during economic shocks. Future research should address the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies.My second comment relates to inflation expectations and the public's understanding of inflation targeting. The success of inflation targeting is contingent upon the public's expectations being anchored within the bounds set by central banks. Nookhwun and Waiyawatjakorn utilize professional forecasters' short- and medium-term expectations based on Consensus Economics to illustrate that inflation expectations are well-aligned with central banks' targets, implying that the inflation targets announced by central banks have been credible.However, they overlook the potential limitations in this approach, given the lack of a robust theory on the formation of inflation expectations. In fact, there is a notable gap between the theoretical role of monetary policy in controlling inflation and the corresponding public understanding of this policy. For example, a Bank of Thailand study (Apaitan & Tantasith, 2019) revealed a common misconception among the media that associated inflation control more with price regulation entities (such as the Ministry of Commerce) than with the central bank. This raises questions about the efficacy of inflation targeting in anchoring inflation expectations as the public remains

Nookhwun 和 Waiyawatjakorn（2024 年）首次对东南亚国家联盟（东盟）的通货膨胀目标框架进行了系统的实证评估。具体而言，Nookhwun 和 Waiyawatjakorn 研究了东盟国家的通胀目标框架在降低通胀水平和波动性、稳定经济增长以及维持稳健金融体系方面的作用。Nookhwun 和 Waiyawatjakorn 的结论是，这些框架主要有助于降低通货膨胀水平。尽管 Nookhwun 和 Waiyawatjakorn（2024 年）的文章简洁明了，但如果能对各种辅助政策和公众对通货膨胀的看法进行简要讨论，则会更有说服力。除了通胀目标框架，Nookhwun 和 Waiyawatjakorn 还指出，东盟国家还使用能源补贴、价格控制和其他方法来应对全球商品市场的短期冲击和通胀。然而，他们没有讨论财政政策在 2008-2009 年全球金融危机和 COVID-19 大流行等重大危机中稳定经济增长的作用。许多东盟国家因前所未有的政府支出而导致公共债务激增，这凸显了财政政策在经济冲击期间对经济稳定的重要作用。我的第二点意见与通货膨胀预期和公众对通货膨胀目标制的理解有关。通胀目标制的成功取决于公众的预期是否在中央银行设定的范围内。Nookhwun和Waiyawatjakorn利用基于共识经济学（Consensus Economics）的专业预测者的短期和中期预期来说明通胀预期与中央银行的目标非常一致，这意味着中央银行宣布的通胀目标是可信的。然而，由于缺乏关于通胀预期形成的有力理论，他们忽视了这种方法的潜在局限性。事实上，货币政策在控制通胀方面的理论作用与公众对这一政策的相应理解之间存在明显差距。例如，泰国银行的一项研究（Apaitan & Tantasith, 2019）显示，媒体普遍存在一种误解，即认为控制通胀更多地与价格监管机构（如商业部）而非中央银行有关。总之，虽然通胀目标制似乎在东盟国家促进了更好的宏观经济成果，但辅助政策和有效沟通的作用同样至关重要。正如 Nookhwun 和 Waiyawatjakorn 所建议的，进一步研究这些政策及其与货币政策之间的相互作用至关重要。这就需要调查每个国家独特的政策背景及其中央银行的沟通战略。

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引用次数: 0

Comment on “Challenges in Searching for Vietnam's Growth Drivers Through 2030” 就 "寻找 2030 年越南增长动力面临的挑战 "发表评论

IF 4.5 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Asian Economic Policy Review

Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12461

Kenichi Ohno

Can and Dang (2024) argue that Vietnam's traditional growth drivers no longer work or face diminishing returns, and the country requires a new set of growth drivers to avoid a middle-income trap. The need for a policy phase shift has been recognized widely in Vietnam, and Can and Dang reinforce this shared vision. Concerns are covered broadly while no new evidence is offered. Facts and data are cited from the existing literature. Therefore, to assess this study, we must ask if Can and Dang state Vietnam's challenges and solutions in a balanced, concrete, and convincing way to inform and guide policymakers.Can and Dang list four drivers of past growth: (i) economic liberalization; (ii) knowledge diffusion from trade and foreign direct investment (FDI); (iii) the robust performance of manufacturing; and (iv) young and low-cost labor. This selection is mostly acceptable though quibbles may be raised regarding details.In particular, Vietnam's knowledge absorption from the foreign sector was not very fast. It took Korea only several years to learn steelmaking, shipbuilding, automobile, and electronics from Japan and attain global competitiveness. Vietnam, like most other economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has learned more slowly and produced fewer global giants. It surely learned how to sew T-shirts and operate machines at the bottom of the Smile Curve but learning on the value-creating segments of the Smile Curve such as product design, the supply of reliable components, and global marketing was limited. We must see if Vinfast will succeed in conquering the global electric vehicle (EV) market. Technology spillovers do not occur spontaneously but require proper conditions on the recipient side.Global digital transformation is presented as an advantage but it is also regarded as a risk for Vietnam as discussed in later sections of Can and Dang. For every developing country, digital technology poses both an opportunity and a challenge. Digital leapfrogging is possible for some but digital delays and divides are realities for countries without the necessary conditions. These conditions include the fostering of digital engineers, incentives and opportunities to retain and mobilize these engineers in the home country, excellent Internet infrastructure, and effective policy support for startups and innovators. As Can and Dang admit, Vietnam's track record so far is not very encouraging.Can and Dang point to five disadvantages for Vietnam. They are: (i) trade risks; (ii) unskilled and aging labor; (iii) infrastructure shortage; (iv) low-quality institutions; and (v) premature deindustrialization. Regarding (i), it must be noted that Vietnam is in a relatively good position to gain from the China-US trade war as well as a thick network of free trade agreements (FTAs) and regional agreements it has concluded with its major trading partners. [Correction added on 27 May 2024, after first o

这种情况给经济研究人员带来了困难，他们必须创造知识增值而不是重复。除非对多学科问题也进行适当分析，否则仅靠经济学是无效的。

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引用次数: 0

Flexible Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence from ASEAN 灵活的通胀目标和宏观经济表现：东盟的证据

IF 4.5 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Asian Economic Policy Review

Pub Date : 2024-01-28 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12459

Nuwat Nookhwun, Rawipha Waiyawatjakorn

The experience of flexible inflation targeting in ASEAN-5 has been favorable. The present paper shows improvements in macroeconomic outcomes consistent with the framework's mandated objectives: lower levels and volatility of inflation, more stable economic growth, and a well-functioning financial system. Using difference-in-difference approaches, we find that, for ASEAN-5 and developing countries, the inflation targeting framework mainly benefits adopters in terms of reducing inflation levels. In response to the challenges emanating from capital flow volatility and domestic financial imbalances, over the past 20 years, ASEAN-5 policy frameworks have continuously evolved to incorporate various policy tools. These include, among others, foreign exchange intervention, macroprudential policy, and capital flow measures. A multitude of policy tools is arguably one of the key factors contributing to sound macroeconomic outcomes during the post-targeting periods.

东盟五国在灵活的通货膨胀目标制方面取得了良好的经验。本文显示了与该框架规定目标一致的宏观经济成果的改善：较低的通货膨胀水平和波动性、更稳定的经济增长以及运作良好的金融体系。利用差分法，我们发现对于东盟五国和发展中国家而言，通胀目标框架主要有利于采用该框架的国家降低通胀水平。为应对资本流动波动和国内金融失衡带来的挑战，过去 20 年来，东盟五国的政策框架不断演变，纳入了各种政策工具。其中包括外汇干预、宏观审慎政策和资本流动措施。可以说，多种政策工具是有助于在目标设定后时期取得良好宏观经济成果的关键因素之一。

引用次数: 0

Challenges in Searching for Vietnam's Growth Drivers Through 2030 寻找 2030 年越南增长动力面临的挑战

IF 4.5 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Asian Economic Policy Review

Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12458

Luc Van Can, Tu Ngoc Dang

Vietnam's long-term economic growth comparisons with ASEAN nations have been striking since its 1986's economic reforms. Such key factors as economic liberalization, a young population and low-cost labor, knowledge diffusion, and the manufacturing sector have driven Vietnam's growth. Until 2023, Vietnam has the potential to capitalize on several favorable circumstances, including the diversion of trade and investment from China, the growth of the middle class, and the global digital transformation. Nevertheless, Vietnam's economic growth will confront various obstacles and a declining trajectory that predates the COVID pandemic. To circumvent the risk of falling into the middle-income trap, this paper proposes “active” economic integration, labor productivity, innovation and research and development, the services sector, and green growth as new growth drivers for Vietnam till 2030. Considering the many policy ideas put forth by the Vietnamese government and the World Bank, this paper presents several distinct recommendations on institution reform and human capital accumulation.

自 1986 年进行经济改革以来，越南与东盟国家的长期经济增长比较引人注目。经济自由化、年轻人口和低成本劳动力、知识传播和制造业等关键因素推动了越南的经济增长。在 2023 年之前，越南有可能利用几个有利的环境，包括来自中国的贸易和投资分流、中产阶级的增长以及全球数字化转型。然而，越南的经济增长将面临各种障碍，而且其经济增长轨迹在 COVID 流行之前就已开始下滑。为了规避陷入中等收入陷阱的风险，本文提出 "积极的 "经济一体化、劳动生产率、创新与研发、服务业和绿色增长作为越南 2030 年前新的增长动力。考虑到越南政府和世界银行提出的诸多政策主张，本文就机构改革和人力资本积累提出了几项独特的建议。

引用次数: 0

Deglobalization: Editors' Overview 去全球化：编辑综述

IF 3.9 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Asian Economic Policy Review

Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12457

Takatoshi Ito, Kazumasa Iwata, Colin McKenzie, Shujiro Urata

引用次数: 0