{"title":"Comment on “Economic Security and New Industrial Policy”","authors":"Somkiat Tangkitvanich","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12505","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"278-279"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144646977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment on “the Normalization of Wage Dynamics”","authors":"Emiko Usui","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12512","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"249-250"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144646978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment on “Economic Security and New Industrial Policy”","authors":"Arata Kuno","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12511","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"276-277"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this study is to examine how inflation expectations evolved on a sustained basis in Japan. In the analysis, we define the “anchor of inflation expectations” as inflation expectations excluding the expected effects of the GDP gap and supply shocks. We examine the extent to which the “anchor of inflation expectations” has changed using Japanese forecaster-level data. The estimated anchors increased significantly after the Bank of Japan launched unprecedented monetary easing in 2013. However, the increases were not only modest but also temporary. In contrast, the estimated anchors continued to rise after the global supply shocks became noticeable in 2022. However, the increased anchors of medium-term inflation expectations are still about the same as in 2014–2015. The Japanese economy may not be able to achieve the 2% target on a sustainable basis without additional changes, such as an improvement in consumer sentiment through real wage increases.
本研究的目的是研究日本通胀预期是如何持续演变的。在分析中，我们将“通胀预期锚点”定义为剔除GDP缺口和供给冲击预期效应的通胀预期。我们使用日本预测者水平的数据来检验“通胀预期锚”的变化程度。2013年日本央行（Bank of Japan）推出前所未有的货币宽松政策后，对锚点的估计大幅增加。然而，这些增长不仅幅度不大，而且是暂时的。相比之下，在2022年全球供应冲击变得明显之后，估计的锚点继续上升。然而，中期通胀预期的增加锚点仍与2014-2015年大致相同。如果没有额外的变化，比如通过实际工资增长来改善消费者信心，日本经济可能无法在可持续的基础上实现2%的目标。
{"title":"The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Japan","authors":"Shin-ichi Fukuda, Naoto Soma","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12504","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The purpose of this study is to examine how inflation expectations evolved on a sustained basis in Japan. In the analysis, we define the “anchor of inflation expectations” as inflation expectations excluding the expected effects of the GDP gap and supply shocks. We examine the extent to which the “anchor of inflation expectations” has changed using Japanese forecaster-level data. The estimated anchors increased significantly after the Bank of Japan launched unprecedented monetary easing in 2013. However, the increases were not only modest but also temporary. In contrast, the estimated anchors continued to rise after the global supply shocks became noticeable in 2022. However, the increased anchors of medium-term inflation expectations are still about the same as in 2014–2015. The Japanese economy may not be able to achieve the 2% target on a sustainable basis without additional changes, such as an improvement in consumer sentiment through real wage increases.</p>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"207-217"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aepr.12504","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In an article published in 2021, Hoshi and Kashyap find that the link between wage inflation and labor market conditions in Japan changed starting in the late 1990s. The link between wage inflation and price inflation also disappeared around the same time. Two factors were identified as the main reasons why wages became less sensitive to the tightness of the labor market: firms' labor hoarding of full-time workers and an increasing reliance on newly hired part-time workers. Both of these factors started to disappear by the late 2010s. After re-confirming the main results in the 2021 article by Hoshi and Kashyap, this paper finds that wage inflation has become sensitive to the unemployment rate (an important labor indicator). We also find weak evidence that the link between wage inflation and price inflation might be re-emerging.
{"title":"The Normalization of Wage Dynamics","authors":"Takeo Hoshi, Anil K. Kashyap","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12503","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In an article published in 2021, Hoshi and Kashyap find that the link between wage inflation and labor market conditions in Japan changed starting in the late 1990s. The link between wage inflation and price inflation also disappeared around the same time. Two factors were identified as the main reasons why wages became less sensitive to the tightness of the labor market: firms' labor hoarding of full-time workers and an increasing reliance on newly hired part-time workers. Both of these factors started to disappear by the late 2010s. After re-confirming the main results in the 2021 article by Hoshi and Kashyap, this paper finds that wage inflation has become sensitive to the unemployment rate (an important labor indicator). We also find weak evidence that the link between wage inflation and price inflation might be re-emerging.</p>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"237-246"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aepr.12503","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment on “Fiscal Projections and Debt Sustainability in Japan”","authors":"Etsuro Shioji","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12510","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"233-234"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<p>Since the mid-1990s, the Japanese economy has experienced stagnation in both prices and wages. This stickiness in prices and wages has been considered a key factor behind Japan's three decades of economic stagnation. Consequently, Japanese policymakers have aimed to stimulate price and wage inflation since the early 2010s. Identifying the sources of this stagnation has long been a critical objective for effective policy design.</p><p>The current paper, Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2025</span>), is a follow-up to Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2021</span>), which examines the causes of wage stagnation. In their earlier work, Hoshi and Kashyap report that wage stagnation was because of the weakened link between labor market tightness—measured by the unemployment rate—and wage growth. Regardless of the level of unemployment, wage growth remained stagnant, a phenomenon described as a flattening of the Phillips curve. With a flattened Phillips curve, labor market tightness no longer translates into wage inflation.</p><p>Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2021</span>) identify two key factors contributing to this phenomenon. The first was surplus employment generated by firms' labor hoarding behavior. When firms experience positive shocks, they utilize their hoarded labor instead of raising wages to attract new workers. The second factor was the elastic labor supply of women. Since the mid-1980s, middle-aged married women, who traditionally remained outside the labor force, have increasingly joined the workforce. This additional labor supply has flattened the labor supply curve and suppressed wage growth. Hoshi and Kashyap's (<span>2021</span>) main conclusion is straightforward: Until surplus labor, both within firms and in the labor market, is exhausted, wage growth will not materialize.</p><p>Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2025</span>) now report that wage growth has become more responsive to changes in labor market tightness, based on data from 2019 to 2023. They argue that this normalization of the Phillips curve is because of the depletion of hoarded labor within firms and the stabilization of women's labor force participation. Their claim is supported by firm responses to the government's Survey of Labour Economy Trends, which indicate a decline in surplus labor within firms, as well as the plateauing of middle-aged women's labor force participation rates.</p><p>Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2025</span>) is a logical, straightforward, and convincing paper on an undoubtedly important issue. The findings are highly relevant to policymakers, providing a positive outlook on achieving a virtuous cycle of wage and price inflation—a central principle guiding the economic policies of both the former Kishida administration and the current Ishiba administration.</p><p>With that said, I would like to highlight the following points that are not addressed in the current paper: The impact of population decline and the declining importance of bonus payments.</p><p>Japan's working-age pop
自上世纪90年代中期以来，日本经济经历了物价和工资的停滞。物价和工资的这种粘性一直被认为是日本三十年经济停滞背后的一个关键因素。因此，自2010年代初以来，日本政策制定者一直致力于刺激物价和工资通胀。长期以来，确定这种停滞的根源一直是有效政策设计的一个关键目标。目前的论文Hoshi and Kashyap（2025）是Hoshi and Kashyap（2021）的后续，后者研究了工资停滞的原因。Hoshi和Kashyap在他们早期的研究中报告说，工资停滞是因为劳动力市场紧缩（用失业率来衡量）和工资增长之间的联系减弱了。不管失业率如何，工资增长仍然停滞不前，这种现象被称为菲利普斯曲线趋平。在菲利普斯曲线趋平的情况下，劳动力市场紧缩不再转化为工资上涨。Hoshi和Kashyap（2021）确定了导致这一现象的两个关键因素。第一种是企业劳动力囤积行为产生的剩余就业。当企业经历正面冲击时，他们会利用囤积的劳动力而不是提高工资来吸引新工人。第二个因素是女性的弹性劳动力供给。自20世纪80年代中期以来，传统上不属于劳动力大军的中年已婚妇女越来越多地加入了劳动力大军。这种额外的劳动力供给使劳动力供给曲线趋平，抑制了工资增长。Hoshi和Kashyap（2021）的主要结论是直截了当的：在企业内部和劳动力市场的剩余劳动力耗尽之前，工资增长不会实现。Hoshi和Kashyap（2025）现在报告称，基于2019年至2023年的数据，工资增长对劳动力市场紧张程度的变化更加敏感。他们认为，这种菲利普斯曲线的正常化是由于企业内部囤积劳动力的消耗和女性劳动力参与的稳定。他们的说法得到了对政府劳动经济趋势调查的坚定回应的支持，该调查表明，企业内部剩余劳动力的减少，以及中年妇女的劳动力参与率趋于稳定。Hoshi和Kashyap（2025）是一篇逻辑清晰、直截了当、令人信服的论文，论述的无疑是一个重要问题。研究结果与政策制定者高度相关，为实现工资和物价通胀的良性循环提供了积极的前景——这是指导前岸田文雄政府和现任石场政府经济政策的核心原则。话虽如此，我想强调以下几点，这些在当前文件中没有涉及：人口下降的影响和奖金支付的重要性下降。自2000年代中期以来，日本的劳动年龄人口一直在减少，理论上，这应该会对工资产生上行压力。长期人口下降和工资停滞的共存一直令人困惑，但企业内部和更广泛市场中剩余劳动力的存在有助于解释这一悖论。既然这种闲置劳动力已经基本消失，劳动力的萎缩很可能成为一种约束性约束，从而导致工资的持续增长。现有研究表明，自上世纪90年代中期以来，奖金支付在总薪酬中所占的比例有所下降。由于奖金比基本工资对劳动力市场状况更为敏感，因此这种下降使得总薪酬对劳动力市场紧缩的反应较小。这两点应该在今后的研究中加以考察。
{"title":"Comment on “The Normalization of Wage Dynamics”","authors":"Daiji Kawaguchi","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12509","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since the mid-1990s, the Japanese economy has experienced stagnation in both prices and wages. This stickiness in prices and wages has been considered a key factor behind Japan's three decades of economic stagnation. Consequently, Japanese policymakers have aimed to stimulate price and wage inflation since the early 2010s. Identifying the sources of this stagnation has long been a critical objective for effective policy design.</p><p>The current paper, Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2025</span>), is a follow-up to Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2021</span>), which examines the causes of wage stagnation. In their earlier work, Hoshi and Kashyap report that wage stagnation was because of the weakened link between labor market tightness—measured by the unemployment rate—and wage growth. Regardless of the level of unemployment, wage growth remained stagnant, a phenomenon described as a flattening of the Phillips curve. With a flattened Phillips curve, labor market tightness no longer translates into wage inflation.</p><p>Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2021</span>) identify two key factors contributing to this phenomenon. The first was surplus employment generated by firms' labor hoarding behavior. When firms experience positive shocks, they utilize their hoarded labor instead of raising wages to attract new workers. The second factor was the elastic labor supply of women. Since the mid-1980s, middle-aged married women, who traditionally remained outside the labor force, have increasingly joined the workforce. This additional labor supply has flattened the labor supply curve and suppressed wage growth. Hoshi and Kashyap's (<span>2021</span>) main conclusion is straightforward: Until surplus labor, both within firms and in the labor market, is exhausted, wage growth will not materialize.</p><p>Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2025</span>) now report that wage growth has become more responsive to changes in labor market tightness, based on data from 2019 to 2023. They argue that this normalization of the Phillips curve is because of the depletion of hoarded labor within firms and the stabilization of women's labor force participation. Their claim is supported by firm responses to the government's Survey of Labour Economy Trends, which indicate a decline in surplus labor within firms, as well as the plateauing of middle-aged women's labor force participation rates.</p><p>Hoshi and Kashyap (<span>2025</span>) is a logical, straightforward, and convincing paper on an undoubtedly important issue. The findings are highly relevant to policymakers, providing a positive outlook on achieving a virtuous cycle of wage and price inflation—a central principle guiding the economic policies of both the former Kishida administration and the current Ishiba administration.</p><p>With that said, I would like to highlight the following points that are not addressed in the current paper: The impact of population decline and the declining importance of bonus payments.</p><p>Japan's working-age pop","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"247-248"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aepr.12509","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Japan's government debt, currently at approximately 250% of GDP, is the highest among the advanced economies and raises significant concerns about fiscal sustainability. This paper employs debt sustainability analysis to assess Japan's long-term fiscal sustainability given a backdrop of rising inflation and potential increases in interest rates because of the normalization of monetary policy. Our baseline scenario projects a persistent primary deficit leading to a divergent debt-to-GDP trajectory, underscoring the need for some fiscal adjustments.
{"title":"Fiscal Projections and Debt Sustainability in Japan","authors":"Mitsuru Katagiri, Junko Koeda, Hiroaki Miyamoto, Makoto Nirei, Takashi Unayama","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12508","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Japan's government debt, currently at approximately 250% of GDP, is the highest among the advanced economies and raises significant concerns about fiscal sustainability. This paper employs debt sustainability analysis to assess Japan's long-term fiscal sustainability given a backdrop of rising inflation and potential increases in interest rates because of the normalization of monetary policy. Our baseline scenario projects a persistent primary deficit leading to a divergent debt-to-GDP trajectory, underscoring the need for some fiscal adjustments.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"222-232"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines recent trends in the Japanese labor market, with a particular focus on the elderly workforce. Japan's elderly employment rates are notably high compared to other OECD countries and have increased significantly over the past two decades. To investigate the factors that affect the employment of old individuals, we develop a structural life-cycle model with consumption-saving decisions and endogenous labor supply in both intensive and extensive margins. The model is calibrated to the cohort of men born in 1936–1940. We find that social security reforms to raise the retirement age by 5 years and reduce the replacement rate by 20% would have increased labor force participation among men in their 60s from 58% to 69% and 67%, respectively, while also encouraging greater retirement savings. Furthermore, we find that overall labor productivity growth reduces elderly participation due to an income effect, whereas productivity growth among the elderly, driven by lower skill depreciation, motivates longer labor force participation.
{"title":"Japan's Aging Workforce: Determinants and Outlook","authors":"Sagiri Kitao, Nozomi Takeda","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12506","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper examines recent trends in the Japanese labor market, with a particular focus on the elderly workforce. Japan's elderly employment rates are notably high compared to other OECD countries and have increased significantly over the past two decades. To investigate the factors that affect the employment of old individuals, we develop a structural life-cycle model with consumption-saving decisions and endogenous labor supply in both intensive and extensive margins. The model is calibrated to the cohort of men born in 1936–1940. We find that social security reforms to raise the retirement age by 5 years and reduce the replacement rate by 20% would have increased labor force participation among men in their 60s from 58% to 69% and 67%, respectively, while also encouraging greater retirement savings. Furthermore, we find that overall labor productivity growth reduces elderly participation due to an income effect, whereas productivity growth among the elderly, driven by lower skill depreciation, motivates longer labor force participation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 2","pages":"251-260"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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