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Innovative search and imitation heuristics: an agent-based simulation study 创新搜索和模仿启发法:基于代理的模拟研究
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11403-024-00406-2
Vittorio Guida, Luigi Mittone, Azzurra Morreale

Prominent research in strategic imitation, exploration, exploitation, and organizational learning identifies imitation as a less costly alternative to experimentation. Yet, its role in the exploration–exploitation dilemma remains underexplored in the literature. This study employs an agent-based model to examine how two distinct agent types—those who imitate and those who experiment—interact and influence each other. The model incorporates the concept of “satisficing” derived from the behavioral theory of the firm, along with insights from research on imitative heuristics. The findings reveal that overcrowding affects both agent types negatively. Imitators suffer from diminished performance due to intensified competition, which increases as more imitators join the system. Meanwhile, explorers are hindered in their attempts at radical innovation due to the presence of other explorers and clusters of imitators. This paper contributes to the field as the first to model individual agents as ‘satisficers’ within a competitive exploration–exploitation framework. By incorporating imitation, it provides novel insights into the dynamics of organizational learning and strategic decision-making.

战略模仿、探索、利用和组织学习方面的著名研究认为,模仿是一种成本较低的实验替代方法。然而,文献中对模仿在探索-利用两难困境中的作用仍未充分探讨。本研究采用了一个基于代理的模型,来研究两种不同的代理类型--模仿者和实验者--是如何相互作用和相互影响的。该模型结合了企业行为理论中的 "满足 "概念,以及模仿启发式研究中的见解。研究结果表明,过度拥挤对两种代理类型都有负面影响。模仿者由于竞争加剧而导致绩效下降,而随着越来越多的模仿者加入系统,竞争也会加剧。同时,由于其他探索者和模仿者集群的存在,探索者的激进创新尝试受到阻碍。本文首次在竞争性探索-开发框架内将个体作为 "满足者 "建模,为该领域做出了贡献。通过将模仿纳入其中,本文为组织学习和战略决策的动态提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
The relationship between housing finance and inequality 住房融资与不平等之间的关系
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1007/s11403-024-00405-3
Tae-Sub Yun, Hee-Sun Bae, Il-Chul Moon, Deokjong Jeong

This study analyzes the Korean housing market using an agent-based simulation from financial and societal perspectives. We initialize heterogeneous household agents using microlevel household survey data from Korea, and we model housing decisions and interactions through a simulated market. First, we validate and calibrate the model to reproduce real-world observations and several stylized facts about the Korean housing market. Then, we conduct a policy experiment to determine the impact of changes in the quantity and cost of housing finance on households’ living conditions and wealth inequality. As proxies for the quantity of housing finance, we adopt the loan-to-value and debt-to-income regulation ratios, classified as macroprudential policy, which are the leverage measures used by the Korean government. The interest rate, one of the levers of monetary policy, is also used as a proxy for housing finance costs. The results of the policy experiment confirm that the quantitative expansion of housing finance provides more benefits to high-income households, thereby worsening wealth inequality. In addition, we find that an increase in housing finance costs lowers the incentive to speculate on housing, but this speculation does not improve the housing status of middle-income households. Finally, we demonstrate that macroprudential policies mitigate the exacerbation of wealth inequality in a relaxed monetary policy state.

本研究采用基于代理的模拟方法,从金融和社会角度分析了韩国的住房市场。我们利用韩国微观层面的家庭调查数据对异质家庭代理进行初始化,并通过模拟市场对住房决策和互动进行建模。首先,我们对模型进行验证和校准,以再现现实世界的观察结果和韩国住房市场的几个典型事实。然后,我们进行了一项政策实验,以确定住房融资数量和成本的变化对家庭生活条件和财富不平等的影响。作为住房融资数量的代用指标,我们采用了被归类为宏观审慎政策的贷款与价值比率和债务与收入比率,这是韩国政府使用的杠杆措施。作为货币政策杠杆之一的利率也被用作住房融资成本的替代指标。政策实验的结果证实,住房融资的数量扩张为高收入家庭提供了更多的利益,从而加剧了财富不平等。此外,我们还发现,住房融资成本的增加降低了住房投机的动机,但这种投机并没有改善中等收入家庭的住房状况。最后,我们证明,在宽松的货币政策状态下,宏观审慎政策可以缓解财富不平等的加剧。
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引用次数: 0
Storable votes with a “pay as you win” mechanism 采用 "边赢边付 "机制的可储存选票
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1007/s11403-024-00407-1
Arturo Macías

This paper introduces a new storable vote mechanism (Storable Votes-Pay as you win, SV-PAYW) where a fixed number of votes is cast among different alternatives, and the votes spent (and redistributed) on each election depend only on the number cast for the winning alternative. The mechanism is expected to deliver more enfranchisement, efficiency and a reduction of uncertainty and strategic behavior with respect to previously known voting systems. To compare the pure storable votes with the SV-PAYW implementations, two key characteristics are monitored: the “enfranchisement gap”, which measures the proportionality between political influence and electoral victories, and the “efficiency ratio”, which assesses the utility derived from the allocation of electoral victories on a scale from random allocation (zero) to the social optimum (one). SV-PAYW consistently outperforms pure storable votes in terms of enfranchisement in all cases. Additionally, as a general rule (there are some exceptions), the “efficiency ratio” tends to be higher for SV-PAYW, hovering around 0.7.

本文介绍了一种新的可储存投票机制(Storable Votes-Pay as you win,SV-PAYW),即在不同的备选方案中投出固定数量的选票,每次选举所花费(和重新分配)的选票仅取决于投给获胜方案的选票数量。与之前已知的投票系统相比,该机制有望带来更多的选举权、更高的效率,并减少不确定性和策略行为。为了比较纯可储存选票与 SV-PAYW 实施方案,我们对两个关键特征进行了监测:"选举权差距"(衡量政治影响力与选举胜利之间的比例关系)和 "效率比"(评估从随机分配(0)到社会最优分配(1)的选举胜利分配所产生的效用)。在所有情况下,就选举权而言,SV-PAYW 始终优于纯粹的可储存选票。此外,作为一般规则(也有例外),SV-PAYW 的 "效率比 "往往更高,徘徊在 0.7 左右。
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引用次数: 0
A two-sided sales promotions modeling based on agent-based simulation 基于代理模拟的双面促销建模
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.1007/s11403-024-00404-4

Abstract

The growing competition in the retail market pushes retailers to optimize their sales and marketing strategies. In particular, in sectors where the profit margins are more restricted and customer loyalty depends heavily on the prices offered, in fact, understanding consumer reactions to sales promotions and providing them with the right deal at the right time is critical for retailers to survive. In this study, we propose an agent-based model that uses the Belief Desire Intention (BDI) concept to model how customers react to the various promotional offers they receive, and our study involves a seller agent that dynamically learns the appropriate promotion to give these customers on a customer-specific basis. Using empirical research findings in the literature, we developed the BDI part of the model based on the “Big Five-Factor Model”. Apart from this, we used the Q-learning algorithm to train the seller agent. Furthermore, one of our goals in this study is to show that learning-based decision-making agents can be more competitive on the market than rule-based decision-making agents. We therefore added a rule-based agent to the model and compared its efficacy to that of the learning-based decision-making agent. The model was tested in an artificial market through a series of experiments. The experiment results show that the proposed model can be used in actual applications to automate sales promotion decisions.

摘要 日益激烈的零售市场竞争迫使零售商优化其销售和营销战略。特别是在利润空间较为有限、顾客忠诚度在很大程度上取决于所提供的价格的行业,事实上,了解消费者对促销活动的反应,并在适当的时候为他们提供适当的优惠,对于零售商的生存至关重要。在本研究中,我们提出了一个基于代理的模型,该模型使用 "信念欲望意图"(BDI)概念来模拟顾客对其收到的各种促销优惠的反应,我们的研究涉及一个卖方代理,该代理可根据顾客的具体情况动态学习给予这些顾客的适当促销。利用文献中的实证研究成果,我们在 "大五因素模型 "的基础上开发了模型的 BDI 部分。除此之外,我们还使用了 Q-learning 算法来训练卖方代理。此外,本研究的目标之一是证明基于学习的决策代理比基于规则的决策代理更具市场竞争力。因此,我们在模型中添加了一个基于规则的代理,并将其功效与基于学习的决策代理进行了比较。我们通过一系列实验在人工市场上对该模型进行了测试。实验结果表明,所提出的模型可用于实际应用中的自动促销决策。
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引用次数: 0
Innovative behavior and interactions in municipal innovation ecosystems 市政创新生态系统中的创新行为与互动
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI: 10.1007/s11403-023-00402-y
Misty Sabol

Open innovation ecosystems play an important role in corporate and product innovation and contribute to the success of economic development at the municipal level, yet there is little research on the factors driving innovative behavior within a municipal innovation ecosystem (MIE). This study explores how the interpersonal and intrapersonal resources of the individuals involved contribute to innovative behavior within a city’s innovation ecosystem. This study applies a mixed-method approach to build a novel framework to examine innovative behavior in the Mobile, Alabama, municipality. A moderated mediation model is tested using PLS-SEM. The qualitative findings presented in this study uncover new constructs useful for assessing innovation at the individual level in a municipality. Scale development steps are employed to validate these new constructs. The SEM results suggest that personal resources and social interactions impact innovative behavior in an MIE.

开放式创新生态系统在企业和产品创新中发挥着重要作用,并为市级经济发展的成功做出了贡献,然而,有关市级创新生态系统(MIE)中创新行为驱动因素的研究却很少。本研究探讨了在城市创新生态系统中,相关个人的人际和个人内部资源是如何促进创新行为的。本研究采用混合方法建立了一个新颖的框架,以考察阿拉巴马州莫比尔市的创新行为。使用 PLS-SEM 对调节中介模型进行了检验。本研究提出的定性研究结果揭示了有助于评估市政当局个人层面创新的新结构。研究采用了量表开发步骤来验证这些新的结构。SEM 结果表明,个人资源和社会互动会影响 MIE 中的创新行为。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling organisational resilience of public sector organisations to navigate complexity: empirical insights from Lithuania 公共部门组织适应复杂性的建模:立陶宛的经验启示
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-30 DOI: 10.1007/s11403-023-00403-x
Mindaugas Butkus, Giovanni Schiuma, Ilona Bartuseviciene, Lina Volodzkiene, Ona Grazina Rakauskiene, Laura Dargenyte-Kacileviciene

Public sector organisations are increasingly tasked to adapt and evolve, dealing with shocks and disturbances without compromising their role as wealth generators. However, as complex adaptive systems, they do not manifest equal capacity for adaptation and evolution in response to complexity. This article explores the role of resilience in public sector organisations and sheds light on the interactions between different elements of resilience that enable these organisations to navigate complexity. The study combines a systematic literature review and a quantitative empirical investigation to propose and test a framework of organisational resilience in the public sector. It identifies planning, adaptation, and enhanced learning as critical phases to explain organisational resilience and how they intervene dynamically when dealing with adversity. The empirical investigation analyses the Lithuanian public sector organisations and explains the relationships among the model dimensions. The paper offers a model for theory development to understand the dimensions of the resilience of complex adaptive public sector organisations and how they interrelate with each other. For practice, it suggests which aspects are relevant to help public sector organisations develop their capacity to build resilience and overcome adversity.

公共部门组织越来越多地承担起适应和发展的任务,在应对冲击和干扰的同时,不影响其作为财富创造者的作用。然而,作为复杂的适应系统,它们在应对复杂性时并没有表现出同等的适应和进化能力。本文探讨了复原力在公共部门组织中的作用,并揭示了使这些组织能够驾驭复杂性的不同复原力要素之间的相互作用。研究结合了系统的文献综述和定量的实证调查,提出并检验了公共部门组织复原力的框架。该框架将规划、适应和加强学习确定为关键阶段,以解释组织复原力及其在应对逆境时如何动态干预。实证调查分析了立陶宛的公共部门组织,并解释了模型各维度之间的关系。本文为理论发展提供了一个模型,以理解复杂的适应性公共部门组织的复原力的各个维度以及它们之间的相互关系。在实践中,它提出了哪些方面与帮助公共部门组织发展建立复原力和克服逆境的能力相关。
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引用次数: 0
Credit diversification and banking systemic risk 信贷多样化与银行系统性风险
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-26 DOI: 10.1007/s11403-023-00401-z
Chao Wang, Boyi Chen, Xiaoxing Liu
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引用次数: 0
A configurative analysis investigating how new technology-based firms gain the first financing round 新技术型企业如何获得首轮融资的配置分析
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11403-023-00398-5
Carmine Passavanti, Simonetta Primario, Pierluigi Rippa

New technology-based firms (NTBFs) present high levels of information asymmetry since knowledge base, the intangibility of assets, and appropriability issues are particularly pronounced. Investors experiment with difficulties in evaluating the quality of NTBFs and look into insights representing the venture's promises and outlooks, and NTBFs need to face limited financing opportunities. Therefore, information asymmetries and moral hazards may influence the financing system of NTBFs. Based on the signaling theory, we propose a configurative approach built on five accessible signals (founders’ education and work experiences, property rights, alliances, and size) to identify combinations of signals conducive to the NTBF reaching a first financial round. By adopting a configurative approach through the qualitative comparative analysis, we advance our understanding of the intricate dynamics between NTBFs and investors, shedding light on the complexity and interplay of various factors influencing the financing outcomes.

新技术型企业(NTBFs)由于知识基础、资产的无形性和可挪用性等问题尤为突出,因此信息不对称程度很高。投资者很难评估新技术企业的质量,也很难深入了解企业的承诺和前景,新技术企业需要面对有限的融资机会。因此,信息不对称和道德风险可能会影响非国有企业的融资体系。基于信号理论,我们提出了一种基于五种可获取信号(创始人的教育和工作经历、产权、联盟和规模)的配置方法,以识别有利于非国有商业基金达成首轮融资的信号组合。通过定性比较分析采用配置方法,我们加深了对非营利性商业基金与投资者之间错综复杂的动态关系的理解,揭示了影响融资结果的各种因素的复杂性和相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of a green monetary policy on firms financing cost 绿色货币政策对企业融资成本的影响
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1007/s11403-023-00400-0

Abstract

The monetary policy operations of a central bank (CB) involve allocation decisions when purchasing assets and taking collateral. A green monetary policy aims to steer or tilt the allocation of assets and collateral toward low-carbon industries, to reduce the cost of capital for these sectors in comparison to high-carbon ones. Starting from a corporate bonds purchase program (e.g., CSPP) that follows a carbon-neutral monetary policy, we analyze how a shift in the CB portfolio allocation toward bonds issued by low-carbon companies can favor green firms in the market. Relying on optimal portfolio theory, we study how the CB might include the risk related to the environmental sustainability of firms in its balance sheet. In addition, we analyze the interactions between the neutral or green CB re-balancing policy and the evolutionary choice (i.e., by means of exponential replicator dynamics) of a population of firms that can decide to be green or not according to bonds borrowing cost.

摘要 中央银行的货币政策操作涉及购买资产和抵押品时的分配决策。绿色货币政策旨在引导资产和抵押品的配置向低碳行业倾斜,以降低这些行业与高碳行业相比的资本成本。从遵循碳中性货币政策的公司债券购买计划(如 CSPP)出发,我们分析了公司债券投资组合配置向低碳公司发行的债券转移如何有利于市场上的绿色企业。根据最优投资组合理论,我们研究了中央银行如何将与企业环境可持续性相关的风险纳入其资产负债表。此外,我们还分析了中性或绿色的公司债券再平衡政策与企业群体的演化选择(即通过指数复制器动力学)之间的相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
When firms buy corporate bonds: an agent-based approach to credit within firms 企业何时购买公司债券:基于代理的企业内部信贷方法
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-04 DOI: 10.1007/s11403-023-00399-4
Jlenia Di Noia

Recent trends in the market for corporate bonds -such as its increase in size, the significant presence of low-quality debt instruments and the trading activity of non-financial corporations- call for the need of an investigation of the possible implications on the real economy. Although the phenomenon is still minor, the present paper aims at giving some early insights concerning the introduction of a corporate bond market, where also nonfinancial firms can invest. To do so, we build on an existing macroeconomic agent-based model of the CATS tradition and we introduce the possibility for firms to raise money through an alternative credit channel, i.e., the corporate bond market- and the opportunity for households and firms to invest part of their financial wealth into a portfolio of Government bonds and corporate bonds. Experiments based on single runs or on 100 Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the introduction of a bond market may exacerbate existing crisis and recessions and that when firms buy bonds, inequality may escalate. To the best of our knowledge, this paper constitutes one of the first attempts to incorporate a corporate bond market into a macro ABM.

公司债券市场的最新趋势--如规模的扩大、低质量债务工具的大量存在以及非金融企业的交易活动--要求对实体经济可能受到的影响进行调查。尽管这一现象尚属次要,但本文旨在就引入公司债券市场(非金融企业也可在此投资)提出一些初步见解。为此,我们以 CATS 传统的现有宏观经济代理模型为基础,引入了企业通过另一种信贷渠道(即公司债券市场)筹集资金的可能性,以及家庭和企业将其部分金融财富投资于政府债券和公司债券组合的机会。基于单次运行或 100 次蒙特卡罗模拟的实验表明,债券市场的引入可能会加剧现有的危机和衰退,当企业购买债券时,不平等可能会加剧。据我们所知,本文是将公司债券市场纳入宏观 ABM 的首次尝试之一。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination
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