Pub Date : 2023-11-07DOI: 10.1108/sef-08-2023-0506
Ahmed W. Elroukh
Purpose This paper aims to investigate the impact of banning cryptocurrencies on stock markets. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses an event study approach and data from stock market indices in nine countries that imposed a ban. It uses the constant mean model and the market model, with two different benchmarks for global returns, to analyze if any of the stock indices show abnormal returns on or around the announcement of a cryptocurrency ban. Findings The analysis shows that banning cryptocurrencies did not affect the returns of stock markets in any of the countries studied, indicating that the cryptocurrency market and stock markets are decoupled from each other, or the ban was not effectively implemented. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first to explore the potential spillover effect of a cryptocurrency ban on stock markets. It also bridges two strands of literature: the relationship between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, and the impact of cryptocurrency regulation on their returns.
{"title":"Does banning cryptocurrencies affect stock markets?","authors":"Ahmed W. Elroukh","doi":"10.1108/sef-08-2023-0506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/sef-08-2023-0506","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This paper aims to investigate the impact of banning cryptocurrencies on stock markets. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses an event study approach and data from stock market indices in nine countries that imposed a ban. It uses the constant mean model and the market model, with two different benchmarks for global returns, to analyze if any of the stock indices show abnormal returns on or around the announcement of a cryptocurrency ban. Findings The analysis shows that banning cryptocurrencies did not affect the returns of stock markets in any of the countries studied, indicating that the cryptocurrency market and stock markets are decoupled from each other, or the ban was not effectively implemented. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first to explore the potential spillover effect of a cryptocurrency ban on stock markets. It also bridges two strands of literature: the relationship between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, and the impact of cryptocurrency regulation on their returns.","PeriodicalId":45607,"journal":{"name":"Studies in Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135430967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-03DOI: 10.1108/sef-04-2023-0184
Ngo Thai Hung
Purpose This study aims to attempt to investigate the time-varying causality and price spillover effects between crude oil and exchange rate markets in G7 economies during the COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine crises. Design/methodology/approach This study uses time-varying Granger causality test and spillover index. Findings This study finds a time-varying causality between exchange rate returns and oil prices, implying that crude oil prices have the predictive power of the foreign exchange rate markets in G7 economies in their domain. Furthermore, the total spillover index is estimated to fall significantly around COVID-19 and war events. However, this index is relatively high – more than 57% during the first wave of COVID-19 and decreasing slightly during the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Practical implications This outcome supports the hypothesis that the majority of the time-varying interaction between exchange rates and oil prices takes place in the short term. As a result, the time-varying characteristics provide straightforward insight for investors and policymakers to fully understand the intercorrelation between oil prices and the G7 exchange rate markets. Originality/value First, this study has reexamined the oil–exchange rate nexus to highlight new evidence using novel time-varying Granger causality model recently proposed by Shi et al. (2018) and the spillover index proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). These approaches allow the author to improve understanding of time-varying causal associations and return transmission between exchange rates and oil prices. Second, compared to past papers, this paper has used data from December 31, 2019, to October 31, 2022, to offer a fresh and accurate structure between the markets, which indicates the unique experience of the COVID-19 outbreak and Russia–Ukraine war episodes. Third, this study analyzes a data set of seven advanced economies (G7) exhibiting significant variations in their economic situations and responding to global stress times.
{"title":"Time-varying connectedness and causality between oil prices and G7 economies exchange rates. Evidence from the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine crises","authors":"Ngo Thai Hung","doi":"10.1108/sef-04-2023-0184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/sef-04-2023-0184","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This study aims to attempt to investigate the time-varying causality and price spillover effects between crude oil and exchange rate markets in G7 economies during the COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine crises. Design/methodology/approach This study uses time-varying Granger causality test and spillover index. Findings This study finds a time-varying causality between exchange rate returns and oil prices, implying that crude oil prices have the predictive power of the foreign exchange rate markets in G7 economies in their domain. Furthermore, the total spillover index is estimated to fall significantly around COVID-19 and war events. However, this index is relatively high – more than 57% during the first wave of COVID-19 and decreasing slightly during the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Practical implications This outcome supports the hypothesis that the majority of the time-varying interaction between exchange rates and oil prices takes place in the short term. As a result, the time-varying characteristics provide straightforward insight for investors and policymakers to fully understand the intercorrelation between oil prices and the G7 exchange rate markets. Originality/value First, this study has reexamined the oil–exchange rate nexus to highlight new evidence using novel time-varying Granger causality model recently proposed by Shi et al. (2018) and the spillover index proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). These approaches allow the author to improve understanding of time-varying causal associations and return transmission between exchange rates and oil prices. Second, compared to past papers, this paper has used data from December 31, 2019, to October 31, 2022, to offer a fresh and accurate structure between the markets, which indicates the unique experience of the COVID-19 outbreak and Russia–Ukraine war episodes. Third, this study analyzes a data set of seven advanced economies (G7) exhibiting significant variations in their economic situations and responding to global stress times.","PeriodicalId":45607,"journal":{"name":"Studies in Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135775438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.1108/sef-06-2023-0327
Júlio Lobão, Sofia P. Baptista
Purpose This study aims to examine the deterrent effect of the Market Abuse Directive (MAD) introduced in the European Union in 2003. The purpose is to evaluate whether the Directive has resulted in significant changes in pre-bid stock price run-ups observed in mergers and acquisitions within the Portuguese, Spanish and Greek stock markets. Design/methodology/approach The study analyzes a sample of 199 mergers and acquisitions in the aforementioned stock markets. The magnitude of pre-bid stock price run-ups is investigated as an indicator of illegal insider trading. The effects of the MAD, toehold positions of bidders and industry similarity between firms involved in the deals are assessed using statistical analysis. Findings The study’s findings indicate that the MAD has been ineffective in deterring investors from trading on non-public information. Pre-announcement price run-ups remain significant, suggesting ongoing illegal insider trading practices. Additionally, the research reveals that pre-bid stock price run-ups tend to be lower when bidders have established a larger toehold position in the target and when the firms involved in the deal belong to the same industry. Originality/value This study contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the ineffectiveness of the MAD in deterring illegal insider trading. The findings highlight the limitations of increasing penalties without an effective monitoring system in place. Furthermore, the study identifies additional factors, such as toehold positions and industry similarity, that influence the magnitude of pre-announcement price run-ups in mergers and acquisitions.
{"title":"The impact of the Market Abuse Directive on illegal insider trading: evidence from three Southern European stock markets","authors":"Júlio Lobão, Sofia P. Baptista","doi":"10.1108/sef-06-2023-0327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/sef-06-2023-0327","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This study aims to examine the deterrent effect of the Market Abuse Directive (MAD) introduced in the European Union in 2003. The purpose is to evaluate whether the Directive has resulted in significant changes in pre-bid stock price run-ups observed in mergers and acquisitions within the Portuguese, Spanish and Greek stock markets. Design/methodology/approach The study analyzes a sample of 199 mergers and acquisitions in the aforementioned stock markets. The magnitude of pre-bid stock price run-ups is investigated as an indicator of illegal insider trading. The effects of the MAD, toehold positions of bidders and industry similarity between firms involved in the deals are assessed using statistical analysis. Findings The study’s findings indicate that the MAD has been ineffective in deterring investors from trading on non-public information. Pre-announcement price run-ups remain significant, suggesting ongoing illegal insider trading practices. Additionally, the research reveals that pre-bid stock price run-ups tend to be lower when bidders have established a larger toehold position in the target and when the firms involved in the deal belong to the same industry. Originality/value This study contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the ineffectiveness of the MAD in deterring illegal insider trading. The findings highlight the limitations of increasing penalties without an effective monitoring system in place. Furthermore, the study identifies additional factors, such as toehold positions and industry similarity, that influence the magnitude of pre-announcement price run-ups in mergers and acquisitions.","PeriodicalId":45607,"journal":{"name":"Studies in Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135929314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose Insufficient internal financing capacities and challenges to accessing external finance are crucial to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) investment and growth. This study aims to investigate how SME leverage of bank financing is related to the investment decision. Design/methodology/approach Using Heckman’s two-step econometric modelling to correct for sample selection bias, this study investigates the effect of entrepreneur characteristics, firm characteristics and performance on firms’ capital structure choices conditional on new investment decisions. Findings The main results reveal that larger firms with growth aspirations tend to make new investments. In the second stage equation, empirical results demonstrate that among SMEs who made a new investment, those SMEs with highly educated owner/managers, on average, use more external financing (i.e. banks loan) rather than internal funds – also, the smaller the company, the less bank leverage. Compared to the limited liability legal form, SMEs registered as individual businesses have less bank financial leverage. These results confirm that internal capacities for funding new investments are limited, and hence small firms must rely on external finance. Originality/value This study provides a unique empirical investigation and evidence based on a sample of SMEs in Kosovo. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt to empirically analyse investment behaviour in relation to capital structure for SMEs in Kosovo and one of the few, in general, to consider the sample selection bias issues underpinning the other studies in this field. The analysis corrects for sample selection bias, using growth aspiration as an instrumental variable.
{"title":"Investment decisions and small and medium-sized enterprise indebtedness: Heckman’s two-stage approach","authors":"Argjente Qerimi, Besnik A. Krasniqi, Driton Balaj, Muhamet Aliu, Skender Ahmeti","doi":"10.1108/sef-06-2023-0331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/sef-06-2023-0331","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose Insufficient internal financing capacities and challenges to accessing external finance are crucial to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) investment and growth. This study aims to investigate how SME leverage of bank financing is related to the investment decision. Design/methodology/approach Using Heckman’s two-step econometric modelling to correct for sample selection bias, this study investigates the effect of entrepreneur characteristics, firm characteristics and performance on firms’ capital structure choices conditional on new investment decisions. Findings The main results reveal that larger firms with growth aspirations tend to make new investments. In the second stage equation, empirical results demonstrate that among SMEs who made a new investment, those SMEs with highly educated owner/managers, on average, use more external financing (i.e. banks loan) rather than internal funds – also, the smaller the company, the less bank leverage. Compared to the limited liability legal form, SMEs registered as individual businesses have less bank financial leverage. These results confirm that internal capacities for funding new investments are limited, and hence small firms must rely on external finance. Originality/value This study provides a unique empirical investigation and evidence based on a sample of SMEs in Kosovo. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt to empirically analyse investment behaviour in relation to capital structure for SMEs in Kosovo and one of the few, in general, to consider the sample selection bias issues underpinning the other studies in this field. The analysis corrects for sample selection bias, using growth aspiration as an instrumental variable.","PeriodicalId":45607,"journal":{"name":"Studies in Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135112865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-23DOI: 10.1108/sef-03-2023-0138
Dimitrios Panagiotou, Konstantinos Karamanis
Purpose The aim of this study is to investigate for monotonicity, linearity and symmetry for the price volatility–trading volume relationship in the futures markets of agricultural commodities. Design/methodology/approach Empirical findings are produced with the use of a highly flexible, nonparametric approach. Data are daily prices and volumes from the commodities of corn, hard red wheat, oats, rice and soybeans. Findings Results reveal violations of monotonicity locally but not globally. Volume and price volatility have, in all markets, a nonlinear relationship to each other, indicating that the strength of the relationship does not remain constant over the entire joint distribution. Global symmetry is rejected for the markets of oats and hard red wheat but cannot be rejected for the remaining three markets. The latter suggests that large values of good volatility are likely to occur together with high trading volumes, as do large values of bad volatility in these markets. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical work to test simultaneously for monotonicity, linearity and symmetry between price volatility and trading volume in the futures markets of agricultural commodities.
{"title":"Testing for monotonicity, linearity and symmetry between trading volume and price returns in the futures markets of agricultural commodities: a discussion on the financial implications","authors":"Dimitrios Panagiotou, Konstantinos Karamanis","doi":"10.1108/sef-03-2023-0138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/sef-03-2023-0138","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose The aim of this study is to investigate for monotonicity, linearity and symmetry for the price volatility–trading volume relationship in the futures markets of agricultural commodities. Design/methodology/approach Empirical findings are produced with the use of a highly flexible, nonparametric approach. Data are daily prices and volumes from the commodities of corn, hard red wheat, oats, rice and soybeans. Findings Results reveal violations of monotonicity locally but not globally. Volume and price volatility have, in all markets, a nonlinear relationship to each other, indicating that the strength of the relationship does not remain constant over the entire joint distribution. Global symmetry is rejected for the markets of oats and hard red wheat but cannot be rejected for the remaining three markets. The latter suggests that large values of good volatility are likely to occur together with high trading volumes, as do large values of bad volatility in these markets. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical work to test simultaneously for monotonicity, linearity and symmetry between price volatility and trading volume in the futures markets of agricultural commodities.","PeriodicalId":45607,"journal":{"name":"Studies in Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135366002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-18DOI: 10.1108/sef-02-2022-0107
Rashed Isam Ashqar, Júlio Lobão
Purpose This paper aims to examine the influence of religious backgrounds and religiosity on three dimensions of household finance (the decision to hold secured debt, the likelihood of being in a state of financial distress and the likelihood of being in a state of financial well-being) across a large sample of European countries. Design/methodology/approach The study uses data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data set, spanning from 2004 to 2018. The authors conduct regression analysis to examine the relationship between religion and household financial choices. Findings The study finds that belonging to a predominantly Catholic or Orthodox (Protestant) country is negatively (positively) associated with the likelihood of holding a mortgage. Belonging to a mostly Catholic (Protestant) country is negatively (positively) associated with the likelihood of being in a state of financial distress. Belonging to a predominantly Catholic (Protestant) country is positively (negatively) associated with the likelihood of being in a state of financial well-being. These relationships remain robust after controlling for a large number of demographic and economic variables. Originality/value In this paper, the authors analyze for the first time the impact of religion on household finance in a wide range of European countries. It is also the first time that the EU-SILC database, which aggregates data on more than three million European households, is used for the study of this topic.
{"title":"Does religion influence the household finance? Evidence from Europe","authors":"Rashed Isam Ashqar, Júlio Lobão","doi":"10.1108/sef-02-2022-0107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/sef-02-2022-0107","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This paper aims to examine the influence of religious backgrounds and religiosity on three dimensions of household finance (the decision to hold secured debt, the likelihood of being in a state of financial distress and the likelihood of being in a state of financial well-being) across a large sample of European countries. Design/methodology/approach The study uses data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data set, spanning from 2004 to 2018. The authors conduct regression analysis to examine the relationship between religion and household financial choices. Findings The study finds that belonging to a predominantly Catholic or Orthodox (Protestant) country is negatively (positively) associated with the likelihood of holding a mortgage. Belonging to a mostly Catholic (Protestant) country is negatively (positively) associated with the likelihood of being in a state of financial distress. Belonging to a predominantly Catholic (Protestant) country is positively (negatively) associated with the likelihood of being in a state of financial well-being. These relationships remain robust after controlling for a large number of demographic and economic variables. Originality/value In this paper, the authors analyze for the first time the impact of religion on household finance in a wide range of European countries. It is also the first time that the EU-SILC database, which aggregates data on more than three million European households, is used for the study of this topic.","PeriodicalId":45607,"journal":{"name":"Studies in Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135823888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose This paper aims to investigate the role of price-based information from major cryptocurrencies, foreign exchange, equity markets and key commodities in predicting the next-minute Bitcoin (BTC) price. This study answers the following research questions: What is the best sparse regression model to predict the next-minute price of BTC? What are the key drivers of the BTC price in high-frequency trading? Design/methodology/approach Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and Ridge regressions are adopted using minute-based open-high-low-close prices, volume and trade count for eight major cryptos, global stock market indices, foreign currency pairs, crude oil and gold price information for February 2020–March 2021. This study also examines whether there was any significant break and how the accuracy of the selected models was impacted. Findings Findings suggest that Ridge regression is the most effective model for predicting next-minute BTC prices based on BTC-related covariates such as BTC-open, BTC-high and BTC-low, with a moderate amount of regularization. While BTC-based covariates BTC-open and BTC-low were most significant in predicting BTC closing prices during stable periods, BTC-open and BTC-high were most important during volatile periods. Overall findings suggest that BTC’s price information is the most helpful to predict its next-minute closing price after considering various other asset classes’ price information. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to identify the covariates of major cryptocurrencies and predict the next-minute BTC crypto price, with a focus on both crypto-asset and cross-market information.
{"title":"Drivers of the next-minute Bitcoin price using sparse regressions","authors":"Ikhlaas Gurrib, Firuz Kamalov, Olga Starkova, Elgilani Eltahir Elshareif, Davide Contu","doi":"10.1108/sef-04-2023-0182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/sef-04-2023-0182","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This paper aims to investigate the role of price-based information from major cryptocurrencies, foreign exchange, equity markets and key commodities in predicting the next-minute Bitcoin (BTC) price. This study answers the following research questions: What is the best sparse regression model to predict the next-minute price of BTC? What are the key drivers of the BTC price in high-frequency trading? Design/methodology/approach Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and Ridge regressions are adopted using minute-based open-high-low-close prices, volume and trade count for eight major cryptos, global stock market indices, foreign currency pairs, crude oil and gold price information for February 2020–March 2021. This study also examines whether there was any significant break and how the accuracy of the selected models was impacted. Findings Findings suggest that Ridge regression is the most effective model for predicting next-minute BTC prices based on BTC-related covariates such as BTC-open, BTC-high and BTC-low, with a moderate amount of regularization. While BTC-based covariates BTC-open and BTC-low were most significant in predicting BTC closing prices during stable periods, BTC-open and BTC-high were most important during volatile periods. Overall findings suggest that BTC’s price information is the most helpful to predict its next-minute closing price after considering various other asset classes’ price information. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to identify the covariates of major cryptocurrencies and predict the next-minute BTC crypto price, with a focus on both crypto-asset and cross-market information.","PeriodicalId":45607,"journal":{"name":"Studies in Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135804931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-10DOI: 10.1108/sef-05-2023-0258
Zhaoying Lu, Hisashi Tanizaki
Purpose This study aims to investigate how the gold return and its volatility respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach Stochastic volatility (SV) models are conducted to examine the response of gold to the number of new confirmed cases and deaths. Findings The results indicate that an increase in the change rate of the number of COVID-19 infections or fatalities leads to heightened volatility in gold prices. Moreover, the results suggest that gold volatility is more sensitive to the impacts from high-income countries than by those from middle- and low-income countries. In addition, the asymmetric effect is detected in the gold price volatility, which is contrary to the typical asymmetric effect seen in the stock market. Furthermore, the results remain robust after accounting for the US dollar and the volatility index in relation to gold returns. Practical implications This study presents whether and to what extent gold is incorporated in the information related to the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Originality/value This study augments the existing literature by exploring how the number of COVID-19 infections and fatalities influences gold prices. In addition, it examines the day-of-the-week and asymmetric effects that may contribute to the volatility of gold prices. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the evolution of gold has not yet been investigated using SV models.
{"title":"The response of gold to the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Zhaoying Lu, Hisashi Tanizaki","doi":"10.1108/sef-05-2023-0258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/sef-05-2023-0258","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This study aims to investigate how the gold return and its volatility respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach Stochastic volatility (SV) models are conducted to examine the response of gold to the number of new confirmed cases and deaths. Findings The results indicate that an increase in the change rate of the number of COVID-19 infections or fatalities leads to heightened volatility in gold prices. Moreover, the results suggest that gold volatility is more sensitive to the impacts from high-income countries than by those from middle- and low-income countries. In addition, the asymmetric effect is detected in the gold price volatility, which is contrary to the typical asymmetric effect seen in the stock market. Furthermore, the results remain robust after accounting for the US dollar and the volatility index in relation to gold returns. Practical implications This study presents whether and to what extent gold is incorporated in the information related to the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Originality/value This study augments the existing literature by exploring how the number of COVID-19 infections and fatalities influences gold prices. In addition, it examines the day-of-the-week and asymmetric effects that may contribute to the volatility of gold prices. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the evolution of gold has not yet been investigated using SV models.","PeriodicalId":45607,"journal":{"name":"Studies in Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136292996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-09DOI: 10.1108/sef-02-2023-0073
Enrique Izquierdo-Cervera, Francisco Sogorb-Mira
Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) on Spanish sovereign debt. Design/methodology/approach The authors assess the impact of the PSPP on Spanish Government bonds from two different transmission channels (the signalling and the portfolio substitution) with two effects for each of them (the announcement and the expectation effects for the former and the stock and the rebalancing effects for the latter). The empirical study has been undertaken with event study methodology, controlled by macroeconomic variables, panel data and cross-sectional regression analyses. Findings The results show that both the ECB’s purchases under the PSPP and the announcements reduced Spanish Government bond yields. Compared to previous literature the Spanish Government bond yields reductions are larger than those for other countries. Research limitations/implications The authors’ approach to the impact of investors’ expectations is interesting, although they cannot draw evidence on this issue due to the lack of data. Practical implications From an economic perspective, the ECB can change economic agents’ expectations without actually carrying out any programme, only by announcing such a programme. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature examining the PSPP from different transmission channels in Spain, taking into account the announcements, the expectations, the purchases and the variation in debt holdings relating to the PSPP from the beginning of the programme until 2020. Due to the large degree of heterogeneity across euro area countries, the results in this paper should improve our understanding of the relative differences in the impact of the PSPP and, thus, be of interest to academics and policymakers.
{"title":"An assessment of the impact of the PSPP on Spanish public bonds","authors":"Enrique Izquierdo-Cervera, Francisco Sogorb-Mira","doi":"10.1108/sef-02-2023-0073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/sef-02-2023-0073","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) on Spanish sovereign debt. Design/methodology/approach The authors assess the impact of the PSPP on Spanish Government bonds from two different transmission channels (the signalling and the portfolio substitution) with two effects for each of them (the announcement and the expectation effects for the former and the stock and the rebalancing effects for the latter). The empirical study has been undertaken with event study methodology, controlled by macroeconomic variables, panel data and cross-sectional regression analyses. Findings The results show that both the ECB’s purchases under the PSPP and the announcements reduced Spanish Government bond yields. Compared to previous literature the Spanish Government bond yields reductions are larger than those for other countries. Research limitations/implications The authors’ approach to the impact of investors’ expectations is interesting, although they cannot draw evidence on this issue due to the lack of data. Practical implications From an economic perspective, the ECB can change economic agents’ expectations without actually carrying out any programme, only by announcing such a programme. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature examining the PSPP from different transmission channels in Spain, taking into account the announcements, the expectations, the purchases and the variation in debt holdings relating to the PSPP from the beginning of the programme until 2020. Due to the large degree of heterogeneity across euro area countries, the results in this paper should improve our understanding of the relative differences in the impact of the PSPP and, thus, be of interest to academics and policymakers.","PeriodicalId":45607,"journal":{"name":"Studies in Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135045184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-09DOI: 10.1108/sef-06-2023-0351
Ahmet Galip Gençyürek
Purpose The crude oil market plays a key role in addressing the issue of energy economics. This paper aims to detect the causality relationship between the crude oil market and economy based on the financial system. Design/methodology/approach This paper used the static and dynamic Hatemi-J Bootstrap Toda–Yamamoto and Diebold–Yilmaz connectedness index. The Hatemi-J Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto approach allows researchers to use nonstationary data and that method is robust to nonnormal distribution and heteroscedasticity. The Diebold–Yilmaz connectedness index model provides researchers to detect the power of connectedness besides linkage direction. The analyzed period is the span from January 3, 2005 to October 3, 2022. Findings The results show bidirectional causality in the full sample but unidirectional causality before and after the 2008 financial crisis. During the 2008 financial crisis period and the COVID-19 period, there was a bidirectional and unidirectional causality, respectively. The connectedness approach indicates that the crude oil market affects financial stress through investors’ risk preferences. Research limitations/implications The Diebold–Yilmaz spillover index model is based on vector autoregression methods with a stationarity precondition. However, some of the five dimensions that constitute the financial stress index (FSI) are nonstationary in level. Therefore, the authors takes the first difference of the nonstationary data. Practical implications The linkage between the crude oil market and the FSI provides useful information for investors and policymakers. For instance, this paper indicates that an investor wanted to forecast future value of the crude oil (financial stress) should consider the current and past values of financial stress (crude oil). Moreover, policymaker should consider the crude oil market (FSI) to make a policy proposal for financial system (crude oil market). Originality/value Recently, indicators of economic activity levels (economic policy uncertainty, implied volatility index) have begun to be considered to analyze the relationship between energy and the economy but very little is known in the literature about the leading and lagging roles of data in subsample periods and the linkage channel. The other originality of this research is using the new econometric approaches.
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