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Senior official speeches and severe price discontinuities in the foreign exchange market 高级官员的讲话和外汇市场严重的价格不连续性
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-06 DOI: 10.1108/sef-01-2023-0015
Mohamed A. Ayadi, Walid Ben Omrane, Jiayu Wang, Robert Welch
Purpose This study aims to better understand the effects of speeches as a valuable communication tool for central banks. It extends the analysis of the effects of public speeches on jumps to determine whether individual speakers matter partly because of their name, position or institution. Design/methodology/approach This study detects intraday jumps using a robust-to-jump volatility estimator that accounts for deterministic seasonality. As a result, this study removes spurious jumps that occur when volatility is high and consider the relatively small jumps that occur when volatility is low. After identifying jumps, this study examines their reactions to senior official speeches and macroeconomic news surrounding the US and European Union (EU) financial crises. Findings Despite having the most influential individual speakers, this study finds that the impact of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) is mitigated because the two institutions have a relatively small impact on currency jumps. This finding shows that the speaker’s name is more important than his or her institution affiliation. While the Federal Reserve Bank President and Chief Executive, as well as ECB board members, significantly reduce jump sizes, particularly during the EU crisis period, both the Fed Chairman and the ECB President increase the magnitude of the jump in both the US crisis and noncrisis periods, contributing to market instability. Practical implications The implications of the results include international portfolio management, currency derivatives pricing and hedging, risk management and market efficiency. Originality/value The findings contribute to a better understanding of the effects of senior official speech attributes on currency jumps in various economic states. The results raise questions about the speaker’s name, institution and position’s effectiveness in calming markets and reducing uncertainty.
本研究旨在更好地了解演讲作为一种有价值的沟通工具对央行的影响。它扩展了对公开演讲对跳楼的影响的分析,以确定个别演讲者的影响是否部分是因为他们的名字、职位或机构。设计/方法/方法本研究使用考虑确定性季节性的鲁棒-跳跃波动估计器检测日内跳跃。因此,本研究消除了波动性高时出现的虚假跳跃,并考虑了波动性低时出现的相对较小的跳跃。在确定跳跃之后,本研究考察了他们对高级官员讲话和围绕美国和欧盟(EU)金融危机的宏观经济新闻的反应。尽管拥有最有影响力的个人演讲者,但本研究发现,美联储(Fed)和欧洲央行(ECB)的影响被减轻了,因为这两个机构对货币跳跃的影响相对较小。这一发现表明,说话者的名字比他或她所属的机构更重要。虽然美联储主席和首席执行官以及欧洲央行董事会成员大幅减少了跳跃规模,特别是在欧盟危机期间,但美联储主席和欧洲央行行长在美国危机和非危机时期都增加了跳跃幅度,导致市场不稳定。研究结果的实际意义包括国际投资组合管理、货币衍生品定价与套期保值、风险管理和市场效率。这些发现有助于更好地理解高级官员讲话属性对不同经济状态下汇率跃升的影响。调查结果引发了人们对演讲者的名字、机构和职位在安抚市场和减少不确定性方面的有效性的质疑。
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引用次数: 0
The relevance of carbon performance and board characteristics on carbon disclosure 碳绩效和董事会特征与碳披露的相关性
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-05 DOI: 10.1108/sef-02-2023-0056
Ghassan H. Mardini, Fathia Elleuch Lahyani
Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of carbon performance on carbon disclosure among nonfinancial French-listed firms, while also considering the corporate board’s characteristics as a secondary objective. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a sample of Société des Bourses Françaises 120 Index (SBF-120) French-listed firms to investigate the effect of multiple carbon performance proxies on carbon disclosure based on random effects models for the period 2010–2021. Generalized method of moments regressions are used to encounter endogeneity problems. Findings Drawing on stakeholder theory, this paper finds that greater carbon performance leads to greater carbon disclosure. Given the growing societal awareness about climate-change issues, carbon-responsible firms are likely to disseminate relevant carbon-related information through disclosures to respond to the information demands of a varied stakeholder group. Coherent with signaling theory, large firms that undertake carbon-reduction initiatives tend to disclose more information about their enhanced carbon performance to equity participants to distinguish themselves and highlight their decarbonization efforts. Originality/value This study offers significant insights given that SBF-120 firms are involved in climate-change activities as a response to the growing institutional and societal pressure to perform better and disclose reliable environmental information in their sustainability reports.
本研究的目的是考察碳绩效对法国非金融上市公司碳披露的影响,同时将公司董事会特征作为次要目标。设计/方法/方法本研究以SBF-120指数的法国上市公司为样本,基于随机效应模型,研究2010-2021年期间多种碳绩效指标对碳披露的影响。采用广义矩回归法求解内生性问题。利用利益相关者理论,本文发现更高的碳绩效导致更高的碳披露。鉴于社会对气候变化问题的意识日益增强,碳责任企业可能会通过披露来传播相关的碳相关信息,以回应不同利益相关者群体的信息需求。与信号理论一致,采取碳减排举措的大公司倾向于向股权参与者披露更多有关其碳绩效增强的信息,以区分自己并突出其脱碳努力。鉴于SBF-120公司参与气候变化活动是对日益增长的机构和社会压力的回应,要求他们在可持续发展报告中表现更好并披露可靠的环境信息,本研究提供了重要的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Uncovering time and frequency co-movement among green bonds, energy commodities and stock market 揭示绿色债券、能源商品和股票市场的时间和频率共同运动
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-03 DOI: 10.1108/sef-03-2023-0126
Miklesh Prasad Yadav, Shruti Ashok, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Deepika Dhingra, Nandita Mishra, Nidhi Malhotra
Purpose This paper aims to examine the comovement among green bonds, energy commodities and stock market to determine the advantages of adding green bonds to a diversified portfolio. Design/methodology/approach Generic 1 Natural Gas and Energy Select SPDR Fund are used as proxies to measure energy commodities, bonds index of S&P Dow Jones and Bloomberg Barclays MSCI are used to represent green bonds and the New York Stock Exchange is considered to measure the stock market. Granger causality test, wavelet analysis and network analysis are applied to daily price for the select markets from August 26, 2014, to March 30, 2021. Findings Results from the Granger causality test indicate no causality between any pair of variables, while cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis confirm strong coherence at a high scale during the pandemic, validating comovement among the three asset classes. In addition, network analysis further corroborates this connectedness, implying a strong association of the stock market with the energy commodity market. Originality/value This study offers new evidence of the temporal association among the US stock market, energy commodities and green bonds during the COVID-19 crisis. It presents a novel approach that measures and evaluates comovement among the constituent series, simultaneously using both wavelet and network analysis.
本文旨在考察绿色债券、能源商品和股票市场之间的变动,以确定在多元化投资组合中加入绿色债券的优势。设计/方法/方法通用1天然气和能源选择SPDR基金作为代理来衡量能源商品,标普道琼斯债券指数和彭博巴克莱MSCI代表绿色债券,并考虑纽约证券交易所来衡量股票市场。对选取市场2014年8月26日至2021年3月30日的日价格进行格兰杰因果检验、小波分析和网络分析。格兰杰因果检验的结果表明,任何对变量之间都没有因果关系,而交叉小波变换和小波相干性分析证实了大流行期间高尺度上的强相干性,验证了三种资产类别之间的共同运动。此外,网络分析进一步证实了这种连通性,这意味着股票市场与能源商品市场之间存在很强的关联。本研究为新冠肺炎危机期间美国股市、能源大宗商品和绿色债券之间的时间相关性提供了新的证据。它提出了一种新颖的方法来测量和评估组成序列之间的运动,同时使用小波和网络分析。
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引用次数: 0
How does fear spread across asset classes? Evidence from quantile connectedness 恐惧是如何在资产类别中蔓延的?分位数连通性的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.1108/sef-07-2023-0408
Panos Fousekis
Purpose This study aims to investigate the connectivity among four principal implied volatility (“fear”) markets in the USA. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis relies on daily data (“fear gauge indices”) for the period 2017–2023 and the quantile vector autoregressive (QVAR) approach that allows connectivity (that is, the network topology of interrelated markets) to be quantile-dependent and time-varying. Findings Extreme increases in fear are transmitted with higher intensity relative to extreme decreases in it. The implied volatility markets for gold and for stocks are the main risk connectors in the network and also net transmitters of shocks to the implied volatility markets for crude oil and for the euro-dollar exchange rate. Major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine increase connectivity; this increase, however, is likely to be more pronounced at the median than the extremes of the joint distribution of the four fear indices. Originality/value This is the first work that uses the QVAR approach to implied volatility markets. The empirical results provide useful insights into how fear spreads across stock and commodities markets, something that is important for risk management, option pricing and forecasting.
本研究旨在探讨美国四个主要隐含波动率(“恐惧”)市场之间的连通性。实证分析依赖于2017-2023年期间的日常数据(“恐惧指标”)和分位数向量自回归(QVAR)方法,该方法允许连通性(即相互关联市场的网络拓扑结构)依赖于分位数和时变。研究结果:相对于恐惧的极度减少,恐惧的极度增加以更高的强度传播。黄金和股票隐含波动率市场是网络中的主要风险连接器,也是原油隐含波动率市场和欧元美元汇率冲击的净传递者。COVID-19大流行和乌克兰战争等重大事件加强了互联互通;然而,这种增长在中位数可能比四种恐惧指数联合分布的极端值更为明显。这是第一次将QVAR方法应用于隐含波动率市场。实证结果为了解恐惧如何在股票和大宗商品市场传播提供了有用的见解,这对风险管理、期权定价和预测都很重要。
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引用次数: 0
A collective decision-making model of p2p lending platforms compared to bank lending 与银行借贷相比,p2p借贷平台的集体决策模型
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.1108/sef-05-2023-0260
Ruth Ben-Yashar, Miriam Krausz
Purpose This study aims to develop a theoretical model that uses the decision-making theory in a financial intermediation setting to provide insights into the differences between the outcomes of the decision-making process for a bank and for a peer-to-peer (p2p) lending platform to explain the role of p2p lending versus bank lending in the credit market. Design/methodology/approach This study develops a novel approach to explaining the differences between p2p lending and bank lending by using the decision-making theory. In particular, it analyzes the likelihood of a risky borrower being able to obtain a loan from a p2p lending platform versus the likelihood of being able to obtain a loan from a bank. The results contribute a theoretical understanding of factors that can determine the role of p2p lending platforms versus that of banks in the credit market, with implications for recovery from an economic crisis. Findings p2p lending platforms have the potential for contributing to economic recovery when they are subject to less regulations and are able to offer a faster and less costly lending process than do banks and when they are used by a large number of lenders. However, the potential role of p2p lending platforms in recovery might be reduced when banks have access to anticyclical measures that reduce banks’ capital requirements or provide them with low-cost funds. Originality/value This study provides a novel approach to explaining the differences between p2p lending and bank lending by using the decision-making theory. The results contribute a theoretical understanding of factors that can determine the role of p2p lending platforms versus that of banks in the credit market.
本研究旨在建立一个理论模型,该模型使用金融中介设置中的决策理论来洞察银行和p2p借贷平台决策过程结果之间的差异,以解释p2p借贷与银行借贷在信贷市场中的作用。设计/方法/方法本研究提出了一种新的方法,利用决策理论来解释p2p借贷与银行借贷之间的差异。特别是,它分析了高风险借款人能够从p2p借贷平台获得贷款的可能性,以及能够从银行获得贷款的可能性。研究结果有助于从理论上理解决定p2p借贷平台与银行在信贷市场中的作用的因素,并对经济危机后的复苏产生影响。研究发现,当p2p借贷平台受到较少的监管,能够提供比银行更快、成本更低的借贷流程,并且被大量贷款人使用时,它们有可能为经济复苏做出贡献。然而,当银行能够获得降低银行资本要求或为其提供低成本资金的反周期措施时,p2p借贷平台在复苏中的潜在作用可能会减弱。本研究运用决策理论为解释p2p借贷与银行借贷之间的差异提供了一种新颖的方法。研究结果有助于从理论上理解决定p2p借贷平台与银行在信贷市场中的作用的因素。
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引用次数: 0
Does board gender diversity affect firms’ expected risk? 董事会性别多样性是否影响公司的预期风险?
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.1108/sef-05-2023-0245
Jodonnis Rodriguez, Krishnan Dandapani, Edward R. Lawrence
Purpose This study aims to explore the impact of board gender diversity on firms’ forward-looking risk, as perceived by both the firm’s management and its investors. The authors seek to understand whether the presence of female directors and the consequent enhancement of board dynamics can influence a firm’s risk profile. Design/methodology/approach The authors use firms’ cash holdings and option implied volatility as proxies for future risk. The approach involves a rigorous analysis that accounts for potential concerns related to selection bias, endogeneity, heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. The authors further substantiate the findings through robustness checks, including a dynamic panel system general method of moment test and a Heckman correction model. Findings The results reveal an inverse relationship between board gender diversity and firms’ expected risk. The findings suggest that the primary driver of this risk reduction is the improvement in the group dynamics of the board that comes with increased gender diversity. This implies that gender diverse boards can significantly influence a firm’s risk management and financial performance. Research limitations/implications The results indicate that gender diverse firms have economically and statistically significantly less expected risk and have better financial performance than firms with less board gender diversity. This has important implications for the organization of corporate boards. Practical implications If the addition of female directors alters the risk aversion of the board, then management may be compelled to alter their investment and production decisions that, ultimately, affects firms’ profitability. In addition, the authors investigate whether changes to firm risk is due to gender differences in risk preferences or to an improvement in the group dynamics of the board. Social implications The empirical results suggest that the effect of board gender diversity on firms’ expected risk and financial performance may be due to an improvement in the collective intelligence of the board, as a result of more gender diversity, and not due to gender differences in risk preferences. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this work is the first to study the effect of board gender diversity on firms’ future risk.
本研究旨在探讨董事会性别多样性对公司管理层和投资者所感知的前瞻性风险的影响。作者试图了解女性董事的存在和董事会动态的增强是否会影响公司的风险概况。设计/方法/方法作者使用公司的现金持有量和期权隐含波动率作为未来风险的代理。该方法涉及严格的分析,考虑到与选择偏差、内生性、异方差和序列相关性相关的潜在问题。作者进一步通过鲁棒性检验,包括动态面板系统的一般矩检验方法和Heckman修正模型来证实研究结果。结果显示,董事会性别多样性与公司预期风险呈负相关。研究结果表明,这种风险降低的主要驱动因素是董事会群体动态的改善,这伴随着性别多样性的增加。这意味着性别多元化的董事会可以显著影响公司的风险管理和财务绩效。研究局限性/启示研究结果表明,性别多元化的公司在经济和统计上的预期风险显著低于董事会性别多元化程度较低的公司,财务绩效更好。这对公司董事会的组织具有重要意义。如果女性董事的加入改变了董事会的风险规避,那么管理层可能被迫改变他们的投资和生产决策,最终影响公司的盈利能力。此外,作者还调查了公司风险的变化是由于风险偏好的性别差异还是董事会群体动态的改善。实证结果表明,董事会性别多样性对公司预期风险和财务绩效的影响可能是由于董事会集体智慧的提高,这是性别多样性增加的结果,而不是由于风险偏好的性别差异。据作者所知,这项工作是第一个研究董事会性别多样性对公司未来风险影响的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Bank capital and risk relationship during COVID-19: a cross-country evidence COVID-19期间银行资本与风险关系:一项跨国证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.1108/sef-04-2023-0199
Quang Thi Thieu Nguyen, Dao Le Trang Anh, Christopher Gan
PurposeThis study aims to examine the relationship between bank capital and bank risk during COVID-19.Design/methodology/approachThe study covers 20 countries during the period from Q4:2018 to Q4:2020, using different measurements of risk with consideration for the interrelationship between bank risk and bank capital and the impact of COVID-19.FindingsThe findings show that higher bank capital mitigates bank market risk and default risk; banks incur higher market risk during the COVID-19 period, and these risks are greater if banks have higher capital levels; and low-capitalized banks reduce risks more than well-capitalized banks, and moderately low-capitalized banks behave the most prudentially. These results are robust to different capital measures and model settings.Practical implicationsThe research results are important in proving the motivation and practicality of capital regulation as well as the impact of COVID-19 as an exogenous shock to the bank’s operations.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the relationship between bank capital and bank risk. In addition, while most of the studies on this nexus are based on the US data and the conclusions are inclusive; our results provide empirical cross-country evidences on the relationship between bank capital and bank risk.
目的研究新冠肺炎疫情期间银行资本与银行风险之间的关系。该研究涵盖了2018年第四季度至2020年第四季度期间的20个国家,在考虑到银行风险与银行资本之间的相互关系以及COVID-19影响的情况下,使用了不同的风险衡量标准。研究发现,较高的银行资本水平降低了银行市场风险和违约风险;新冠肺炎疫情期间,银行面临更高的市场风险,资本水平越高,风险越大;资本不足的银行比资本充足的银行更能降低风险,而资本适度不足的银行表现得最为审慎。这些结果对不同的资本措施和模型设置具有稳健性。研究结果对于证明资本监管的动机和实用性以及COVID-19作为外生冲击对银行运营的影响具有重要意义。据作者所知,这是第一个调查COVID-19大流行对银行资本与银行风险之间关系影响的研究。此外,虽然大多数关于这一联系的研究都是基于美国的数据,结论是包容性的;我们的研究结果为银行资本与银行风险之间的关系提供了跨国实证证据。
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引用次数: 0
Do financial innovations influence bank performance? Evidence from China 金融创新对银行绩效有影响吗?来自中国的证据
IF 1.9 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.1108/sef-02-2022-0119
S. Corbet, Yang (Greg) Hou, Yang Hu, Les Oxley, Mengxuan Tang
PurposeThe rapid growth of Fintech presents a growing challenge for banking institutions, particularly those with more traditional, service backgrounds. This paper aims to examine the relationship between Fintech innovation and bank performance by exploiting novel Chinese market data.Design/methodology/approachGuided by the work of Dietrich and Wanzenried (2011, 2014) and Phan et al. (2019), the authors construct a regression model to investigate the effect of Fintech innovation on the profitability of Chinese listed banks. The authors include their measures of Fintech innovation in each of their selected structures.FindingsResults indicate that Fintech innovation is negatively associated with bank performance and that state-owned banks, joint-stock commercial banks and long-established banks are more negatively impacted by Fintech innovation relative to city and rural commercial banks and younger banks.Originality/valueRisk tolerance levels, internal structure and efficiency and recent debt repayment performance channels are each shown to be significant, robust explanatory factors underpinning such results.
金融科技的快速发展给银行机构带来了越来越大的挑战,尤其是那些拥有传统服务背景的银行机构。本文旨在利用新的中国市场数据来检验金融科技创新与银行绩效之间的关系。设计/方法/途径在Dietrich and Wanzenried(2011, 2014)和Phan et al.(2019)的工作指导下,作者构建了一个回归模型来研究金融科技创新对中国上市银行盈利能力的影响。作者在他们选择的每个结构中都包含了他们对金融科技创新的衡量标准。研究结果表明,金融科技创新与银行绩效呈负相关关系,国有银行、股份制商业银行和老牌银行受金融科技创新的负面影响大于城乡商业银行和年轻银行。原创性/价值风险承受水平、内部结构和效率以及最近的债务偿还绩效渠道都被证明是支撑这些结果的重要的、强有力的解释因素。
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引用次数: 0
Testing for sign and size symmetry between futures prices and spot prices in the markets of energy commodities: risk diversification and policy implications 能源商品期货价格和现货价格的符号和大小对称检验:风险分散和政策影响
IF 1.9 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1108/sef-01-2023-0009
Dimitrios K. Panagiotou, Filio Naka
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate for symmetries – in sign and size – between spot and futures prices in the markets of energy commodities.Design/methodology/approachThe aforementioned objective is pursued using daily observations of spot and futures prices for the commodities of crude oil, Brent, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas, along with local nonlinear regression.FindingsSymmetry in sign and size cannot be rejected. This means that, shocks of the same absolute magnitude, but of different sign, are transmitted from futures prices to spot prices with the same intensity. In addition, larger absolute value price shocks in the futures are transmitted to the spot markets with the same intensity compared with smaller ones. The findings of symmetry in the comovements among prices reveal a lack of those commodities on diversifying the investors’ investment risk.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to use local nonlinear regression to test for sign and size symmetry between futures and spot prices in the energy commodities markets.
目的本文的目的是研究能源商品市场中现货价格和期货价格之间在符号和大小上的对称性。设计/方法/方法上述目标是通过对原油、布伦特原油、取暖油、汽油和天然气等商品的现货和期货价格的每日观察,以及局部非线性回归来实现的。FindingsSymmetry的符号和大小不能被拒绝。这意味着,绝对幅度相同但符号不同的冲击从期货价格传导到强度相同的现货价格。此外,期货中较大的绝对值价格冲击以与较小的冲击相同的强度传递到现货市场。价格变动的对称性揭示了这些商品在分散投资者投资风险方面的不足。原创性/价值据作者所知,这是第一项使用局部非线性回归来测试能源商品市场期货和现货价格之间的符号和大小对称性的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Excess cash or excess headache? Demonetisation and bank behaviour in India 过多的现金还是过多的头痛?印度的废钞和银行行为
IF 1.9 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.1108/sef-12-2022-0552
Saumen Majumdar, Swati Agarwal, Saibal Ghosh
PurposeSudden and unannounced policy changes by the government that provide banks with windfall deposits creates a challenge in terms of resource deployment. In the process, there is an impact on their risk and returns. Using data on domestic Indian commercial banks, this study aims to examine the impact of such an announcement – the 2016 demonetisation episode – on bank behaviour.Design/methodology/approachUsing data on domestic Indian commercial banks during 2010–2020, the paper investigates the effect of a sudden and unannounced policy change on their risk and returns. Using the demonetisation undertaken in November 2016 as a natural experiment, the paper applies the difference-in-differences methodology to tease out the causal impact.FindingsThe findings reveal a decline in risk and an increase in returns of state-owned banks, consistent with a flight-to-safety. The response differed in terms of market and accounting measures and across state-owned banks with differing levels of capital and asset quality.Originality/valueAlthough several aspects of the demonetisation episode have been well analysed, its impact on banks – the main conduits of the exercise – and in particular on their risk and returns, is an unaddressed area of research. Viewed from this standpoint, this is one of the early studies to undertake a comprehensive empirical analysis on this aspect.
政府为银行提供意外存款的突然和未经宣布的政策变化在资源部署方面带来了挑战。在这个过程中,会对他们的风险和回报产生影响。本研究利用印度国内商业银行的数据,旨在检验这一宣布——2016年停止货币化事件——对银行行为的影响。设计/方法/方法利用2010-2020年印度国内商业银行的数据,研究了突然和未经宣布的政策变化对其风险和回报的影响。该论文将2016年11月进行的非货币化作为一项自然实验,应用差异中的差异方法来梳理因果影响。调查结果显示,国有银行的风险下降,回报增加,这与向安全地带的逃亡相一致。市场和会计指标以及资本和资产质量水平不同的国有银行的反应各不相同。独创性/价值尽管对非货币化事件的几个方面进行了很好的分析,但其对银行——这一行动的主要渠道——的影响,尤其是对其风险和回报的影响,是一个尚未解决的研究领域。从这个角度来看,这是对这一方面进行全面实证分析的早期研究之一。
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引用次数: 0
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Studies in Economics and Finance
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