Studies in Economics and Finance最新文献

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine war and the Wagner Group’s attempted military coup against Putin’s regime on the European defense sector, consisting of weapons manufacturers.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the event study methodology to quantify the impact. That is, the authors assume that markets are efficient, and abnormal stock returns around the event dates capture the magnitudes of the impacts of the two events studied on European defense sector companies. The authors use the capital asset pricing model and two different multifactor models to estimate expected stock returns, which serve as the benchmark necessary to obtain abnormal returns.

Findings

The start of the war on February 24, 2022, when the Russian forces invaded Ukraine, was followed by high positive abnormal returns of up to 12% in the next few days. The results are particularly strong if multiple factors are used to control for the risk of the defense stocks. Conversely, the authors find a negative impact of the rebellion initiated by the mercenary Wagner Group’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on June 23, 2023, on the abnormal returns of defense industry stocks on the first trading day after the event.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study of the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the defense sector. Furthermore, this is the first study to measure the financial implications of the military coup initiated by the Wagner Group. The findings contribute to a rapidly growing literature on the financial implications of military conflicts around the world.

Purpose

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through the bond market. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) on the investor’s behavior in the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the authors theoretically identify the transmission channels of the QE shocks to the stock market. Then, the authors empirically assess the financial market’s responses to QE shocks in a data-rich environment using a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR).

Findings

The results show that the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy positively affects the stock market. A QE shock leads to an increase in stock prices and a drop in the realized volatility and the implied risk premium. The authors also suggest that the ECB’s QE is transmitted to the stock market through five main channels: the liquidity, the expectation, the portfolio reallocation, the interest rates and the risk premium channels.

Practical implications

The findings help to better understand the behavior of stock market assets in a data-rich economic context and guide investors and policymakers in the presence of unconventional monetary tools. For instance, decision-makers and investors should consider the short-term effect of the QE interventions and the changing behavior of the financial actors over time. In addition, high stock market returns can increase risk appetite. This can lead investors to underestimate the market risk. Decision-makers and market participants should take into consideration the impact of the large injection of money through the QE, which may raise the risk of a speculative bubble in the financial market.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates a theoretical and empirical analysis to explore QE transmission to the stock market in the European context. Unlike previous studies, the authors use the shadow rate proposed by Wu and Xia (2017) to quantify the effect of the ECB’s QE in a data-rich environment. The authors also include two key risk indicators – the stock market risk premium and the realized volatility – to capture investors’ behavior in the stock market following QE shocks.

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e. gold, palladium, platinum and silver) during the last four US recessions.

Design/methodology/approach

Using daily price data for gold, palladium, platinum and silver running from July 2, 1990, to March 21, 2022, and dating of business cycles in the USA provided by NBER (2022), the paper uses fractional integration to test the degree of persistence of precious metal prices.

Findings

The empirical analysis shows the unrelenting prominence of gold in relation to other precious metals (palladium, platinum and silver) as a hedge against market uncertainty in the post-pandemic new era.

Originality/value

Two are the main contributions of the paper. Firstly, the authors contribute to the commodity markets and finance literature on precious metal price modelling. Secondly, the authors also contribute to the literature on commodity markets and business cycles with a special focus on recessionary periods.

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate not only the performance of Portuguese mutual funds investing in domestic and international equities but also which fund characteristics, such as age, size, family size, expense ratios and flows, influence future performance.

Design/methodology/approach

Fund performance is evaluated over the 2005–2022 period by a robust six-factor model, while the impact of fund characteristics on performance is assessed by a set of fixed-effects panel data regressions with two-way cluster-robust standard errors.

Findings

The results show that, while funds investing in domestic equities predominantly exhibit neutral performance, most international equity funds have significantly negative alphas. The authors document a negative and statistically significant relationship between fund age and performance for all fund categories. Total expense ratios have an inverse relationship with domestic equity fund performance but do not impact the performance of international equity funds significantly. Though fund flows have a neutral effect on performance across the overall period, they are important determinants of both domestic and international funds’ performance in more recent years.

Originality/value

The authors contribute to the literature by carrying out a comprehensive analysis, based on recent and robust methodologies, of the impact of mutual fund characteristics on the future performance of Portuguese equity funds. The research findings serve as a premise for advising investors on how to choose the top-performing funds.

Purpose

This paper aims to introduce a heteroskedastic hidden truncation normal (HTN) model that allows for conditional volatilities, skewness and kurtosis, which evolve over time and are linked to economic dynamics and have economic interpretations.

Design/methodology/approach

The model consists of the HTN distribution introduced by Arnold et al. (1993) coupled with the NGARCH type (Engle and Ng, 1993). The HTN distribution nests two well-known distributions: the skew-normal family (Azzalini, 1985) and the normal distributions. The HTN family of distributions depends on a hidden truncation and has four parameters having economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities, kurtosis and correlations between the observed variable and the hidden truncated variable.

Findings

The model parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimator. An empirical application to market data indicates the HTN-NGARCH model captures stylized facts manifested in financial market data, specifically volatility clustering, leverage effect, conditional skewness and kurtosis. The authors also compare the performance of the HTN-NGARCH model to the mixed normal (MN) heteroskedastic MN-NGARCH model.

Originality/value

The paper presents a structure dynamic, allowing us to explore the volatility spillover between the observed and the hidden truncated variable. The conditional volatilities and skewness have the ability at modeling persistence in volatilities and the leverage effects as well as conditional kurtosis of the S&P 500 index.

Purpose

This study aims to conduct an empirical investigation to assess the hedge, diversifier and safe-haven properties of different environmental, social and governance (ESG) assets (i.e. green bonds and ESG equity index) vis-à-vis conventional investments (namely, equity index, gold and commodities).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors examine the sample period 2007–2021 using the bivariate cross-quantilogram (CQG) analysis and a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) experiment with several extensions.

Findings

The evidence shows that the analyzed ESG investments exhibit mainly diversifying features depending on the asset class taken as a reference, with some potential hedging/safe-haven qualities (for the green bond) in peculiar timespans. Therefore, the results suggest that investors might consider sustainable investing as a new measure of risk reduction, which has interesting implications for both portfolio allocation and policy design.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first that empirically investigates at once the dependence between different ESG investments (i.e. equity and green bond) with different conventional investments such as gold, equity and commodity market indices over a large sample period (2007–2021). Well-suited methodologies like the bivariate CQG and the DCC multivariate GARCH are used to capture the spillover effect and the hedging/diversifying nature, even in temporary contexts. Finally, a global perspective is used.

Purpose

This paper aims to analyse the persistence of the S&P500 and DAX 30 stock indices as well as of the Fed’s Effective Federal Funds rate and of the European Central Bank’s Marginal Lending Facility rate, and the long-run linkages between stock prices and interest rates in the USA and Europe, respectively.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology is based on the concepts of fractional integration and cointegration.

Findings

Using monthly data from January 1999 to December 2022, the results can be summarised as follows. All series examined are non-stationary: stock prices are found to be I(1) while interest rates display orders of integration substantially above 1, which implies a rejection of the hypothesis of mean reversion in all cases examined.

Originality/value

This paper uses an appropriate econometric framework to obtain new, reliable empirical evidence. All four series are highly persistent, and mean reversion does not occur in any single case. Moreover, the fractional cointegration analysis suggests that stock prices and interest rates are not linked in the long run.

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable precious metals: gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium.

Design/methodology/approach

Applying time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) frequency-based connectedness approach to a data set spanning from January 1997 to February 2023, the study analyzes return and volatility connectedness separately, providing insights into how the data, in return and volatility forms, differ across time and frequency.

Findings

The results of the return connectedness show that gold, palladium and silver are affected more by EPU in the short term, while all precious metals are influenced by GPR in the short term. EPGR exhibits strong contributions to the system due to its elevated levels of policy uncertainty and extreme global risks. Palladium shows the highest reaction to EPGR, while silver shows the lowest. Return spillovers are generally time-varying and spike during critical global events. The volatility connectedness is long-term driven, suggesting that uncertainty and risk factors influence market participants’ long-term expectations. Notable peaks in total connectedness occurred during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, with the latter being the highest.

Originality/value

Using the recently updated news-based uncertainty indicators, the study examines the time and frequency connectedness between key uncertainty measures and precious metals in their returns and volatility forms using the TVP-VAR frequency-based connectedness approach.

Purpose

This study aims to establish the effect of environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices on Australian energy and utility investment performance.

Design/methodology/approach

Conventional and ESG-rated portfolios are constructed using monthly returns and ESG scores of S&P/ASX 300 listed energy and utility firms from 2014 to 2022. Portfolio performance is estimated using a four-factor regression model, controlling for any economic shocks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Findings

The findings show that the lower the ESG score associated with the overall ESG and environmental portfolios, the greater the performance compared to the market (but not the conventional and other ESG portfolios). High ESG scores do not appear to influence the performance of the energy and utility portfolios, which contrasts expectations that the uptake of ESG should deliver superior risk-return outcomes for investors. The findings also indicate that a contrarian investment approach may be a reasonable performance indicator for high-rated ESG portfolios. ESG practices did not impact portfolio performance during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Originality/value

This research has contributed to the literature by offering ESG investment insights for policymakers, regulators, fund managers and investors. Consistent with the agency perspective on ESG practices and efficient market hypothesis, the evidence implies that, regardless of ESG scores (either high or low), investors should consider investing passively in diversified energy and utility portfolios or low-cost index fund equivalents.