JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH最新文献

The current paper proposes and tests a model of caregiver empowerment among family caregivers of elderly people in Vietnam. Based on the theory of planned behavior, the study investigates the role of filial piety, work-caregiving conflict, and self-efficacy on intention to craft the caregiving job. Intention to craft is then expected to result in actual caregiving job crafting behaviors, with the later proposed to predict caregiver empowerment. Analysis of data collected from a two-wave survey of family caregivers confirms the proposed hypotheses. The results of the study serve as a reference for subsequent studies as well as practical interventions.

International research suggests that migrants face additional challenges that may heighten their risk of experiencing family violence (FV). South Asians are one of Australia’s fastest growing immigrant populations—yet relatively little is known about their experiences of FV. This study sought to address this research gap by ascertaining what could be gleaned about FV experiences of Australian South Asians the Australian Bureau of Statistic’s 2016 Personal Safety Survey (PSS). While prior versions of the PSS have been deemed non-representative of minority cultural groups, it remains the largest FV victimisation dataset in Australia, and undoubtedly would include information about South Asian Australians. Specifically this study examined the lifetime prevalence and 10-year incidence of most recent FV among South Asian-born (SAB) immigrants and compared these figures to Australian-born (AB) individuals. SAB Australians included in the PSS reported lower lifetime prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV) and a lower 10-year incidence of at least one type of FV (IPV and/or non-partner FV) than AB Australians. The sampling approach of the PSS was shown to have substantial methodological limitations that reduced the utility of these findings. Specifically, the sampling of South Asian immigrants in Australia was not demographically representative nor was the sample size sufficient for meaningful analysis. The implications of these limitations and recommendations to address them in future population-level FV surveys are explored.

We investigate the forecasting accuracy of several simple methods for predicting mortality in small regional areas in Poland. We focus on methods that scale country-level forecasts appropriately and, therefore, can be used by official statistical agencies to improve population projections. We examine data from 379 sub-NUTS-3 districts in Poland for the period 2006–2019, divided into three subperiods. The first period is treated as the training sample and the latter two the testing subperiods. The mortality surface method delivers the most accurate forecasts of the mortality profiles whereas using the district-level standardized mortality rates (SMR) calculated for several broad age groups to scale the country-level mortality forecasts gives the best life expectancy at birth predictions. The latter approach is far better than using the NUTS-2-based standardized mortality rate (SMR), as practiced by the Polish statistical agency. For single age-groups predictions, the SMR-based methods deliver relatively accurate forecasts for young cohorts, but their forecasting accuracy deteriorates significantly with age.

This article develops a demographic method to estimate the civilian noninstitutional population for counties and county equivalents in the U.S. While these data provide the key sampling frame for national labor market surveys and denominators for labor market prevalence rates, the data are thus far unavailable for small areas. I develop a modified cohort component method to produce novel, monthly estimates of the civilian noninstitutional population for all U.S. counties using publicly available data on population and vital statistics with minimal modifications. The resulting population data may be used by researchers and policymakers to study within-year population dynamics as they relate to economic and demographic factors. I further extend the method to produce short-term population projections that include the most current vital statistics. The method compares favorably to existing annual, midyear estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, but is prone to error in areas with fewer vital events.