Jörg Dollmann, S. Mayer, Almuth Lietz, Madeleine W. Siegel, Jonas Köhler
Abstract The German DeZIM.panel is an online access panel that provides data specifically for topics regarding migration and integration. It includes an oversampling for several migrant groups in Germany, and thus allows specific subgroup analyses. Due to its longitudinal structure, its long-term development and the effects of sudden external events can be traced and analyzed.
{"title":"DeZIM.panel – Data for Germany’s Post-Migrant Society","authors":"Jörg Dollmann, S. Mayer, Almuth Lietz, Madeleine W. Siegel, Jonas Köhler","doi":"10.1515/jbnst-2022-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2022-0025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The German DeZIM.panel is an online access panel that provides data specifically for topics regarding migration and integration. It includes an oversampling for several migrant groups in Germany, and thus allows specific subgroup analyses. Due to its longitudinal structure, its long-term development and the effects of sudden external events can be traced and analyzed.","PeriodicalId":45967,"journal":{"name":"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik","volume":"243 1","pages":"93 - 108"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47575574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. Bellmann, Patrick Gleiser, Sophie Hensgen, Christian Kagerl, Ute Leber, Duncan Roth, Matthias Umkehrer, Jens Stegmaier
Abstract The high-frequency establishment survey “Establishments in the Covid-19-Crisis” (BeCovid) started in 2020 and continued until June 2022 to collect monthly data on how businesses in Germany adjusted to the challenges of the pandemic. This article describes the survey design and provides an overview over the topics covered. We further outline the survey’s research potentials, particularly when linked to administrative records.
{"title":"Establishments in the Covid-19-Crisis (BeCovid): A High-Frequency Establishment Survey to Monitor the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic","authors":"L. Bellmann, Patrick Gleiser, Sophie Hensgen, Christian Kagerl, Ute Leber, Duncan Roth, Matthias Umkehrer, Jens Stegmaier","doi":"10.1515/jbnst-2022-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2022-0028","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The high-frequency establishment survey “Establishments in the Covid-19-Crisis” (BeCovid) started in 2020 and continued until June 2022 to collect monthly data on how businesses in Germany adjusted to the challenges of the pandemic. This article describes the survey design and provides an overview over the topics covered. We further outline the survey’s research potentials, particularly when linked to administrative records.","PeriodicalId":45967,"journal":{"name":"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik","volume":"242 1","pages":"421 - 431"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48414252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In this paper an impure public good model is applied to analyze the effects of introducing a green good, i.e. a consumption good that contributes to preservation of environmental quality. I distinguish three types of consumers: “grays”, who consume the green good and a private good; “greens”, who consume the green good and make additional donations to environmental organizations; and “edge” consumers, who consume only the green good. With respect to environmental quality I find that the gap between voluntary provision and optimal provision is unaffected by the introduction of the green good, no matter if consumers are gray or green. However, in the case of gray agents environmental quality is improved in absolute terms after the green good has been launched whereas it remains at the same level as before if consumers are green. The effect of the green good on the social welfare gap is more likely to be beneficial if agents are gray. The gaps with respect to environmental quality and social welfare are both closed if the agents are edge consumers.
{"title":"How Does a “Green” Good Affect Environmental Quality and Social Welfare?","authors":"Anja Brumme","doi":"10.1515/jbnst-2021-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2021-0016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper an impure public good model is applied to analyze the effects of introducing a green good, i.e. a consumption good that contributes to preservation of environmental quality. I distinguish three types of consumers: “grays”, who consume the green good and a private good; “greens”, who consume the green good and make additional donations to environmental organizations; and “edge” consumers, who consume only the green good. With respect to environmental quality I find that the gap between voluntary provision and optimal provision is unaffected by the introduction of the green good, no matter if consumers are gray or green. However, in the case of gray agents environmental quality is improved in absolute terms after the green good has been launched whereas it remains at the same level as before if consumers are green. The effect of the green good on the social welfare gap is more likely to be beneficial if agents are gray. The gaps with respect to environmental quality and social welfare are both closed if the agents are edge consumers.","PeriodicalId":45967,"journal":{"name":"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik","volume":"242 1","pages":"371 - 401"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66924518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Midijobs are employment relationships with moderate monthly earnings that benefit from payroll tax subsidies. Since 2003, the subsidy is universally available for all regions, industries, individuals, and employers in Germany. Recently, more than 2.9 million individuals, i.e., almost 9 percent of the German labor force covered by the social security system took advantage of Midijobs. This paper describes the program, its motivation, and utilization over time. We characterize the labor market transitions leading into and out of Midijob employment, the duration of Midijob utilization, and compare recent developments with patterns of program utilization that were observed early on.
{"title":"The Untold Story of Midijobs","authors":"Anna Herget, R. Riphahn","doi":"10.1515/jbnst-2021-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2021-0025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Midijobs are employment relationships with moderate monthly earnings that benefit from payroll tax subsidies. Since 2003, the subsidy is universally available for all regions, industries, individuals, and employers in Germany. Recently, more than 2.9 million individuals, i.e., almost 9 percent of the German labor force covered by the social security system took advantage of Midijobs. This paper describes the program, its motivation, and utilization over time. We characterize the labor market transitions leading into and out of Midijob employment, the duration of Midijob utilization, and compare recent developments with patterns of program utilization that were observed early on.","PeriodicalId":45967,"journal":{"name":"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik","volume":"242 1","pages":"309 - 341"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66924578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In business cycle accounting, productivity is procyclical. However, this may be an illusion caused by improperly accounting for changes in procyclical capital utilization. This paper considers to what extent incorporating variable shift work into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model reduces the role played by productivity shocks in explaining variations in output. In the one shift version of the model, 81 percent of the variation in output is explained by productivity shocks. With variable shift work, the contribution falls to a minimum of 48 percent. While variable shift work decreases their importance, productivity shocks continue to be the most significant contributor to the variation of output over the business cycle.
{"title":"Does Variable Shift Work Explain Away Productivity Shocks? A Bayesian Approach","authors":"Lucas M. Engelhardt","doi":"10.1515/jbnst-2021-0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2021-0008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In business cycle accounting, productivity is procyclical. However, this may be an illusion caused by improperly accounting for changes in procyclical capital utilization. This paper considers to what extent incorporating variable shift work into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model reduces the role played by productivity shocks in explaining variations in output. In the one shift version of the model, 81 percent of the variation in output is explained by productivity shocks. With variable shift work, the contribution falls to a minimum of 48 percent. While variable shift work decreases their importance, productivity shocks continue to be the most significant contributor to the variation of output over the business cycle.","PeriodicalId":45967,"journal":{"name":"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik","volume":"242 1","pages":"343 - 369"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66924461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article aims to give background information of the combined business tax statistics 2016 of the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. The micro data set includes the different German business tax statistics, which are linked together (i.e. trade tax statistics, corporate income tax statistics, turnover tax statistics, statistics on business partnerships and associations as well as additional information of the statistical business register). With more than three million businesses the micro data set provides linked information on the German business structure and is available in anonymised form for scientific use at the Research Data Centre of the Federal Statistical Office.
{"title":"Combined Business Tax Statistics 2016 of the Federal Statistical Office of Germany – A Micro Data Set for Scientific Use","authors":"Michaela Buchner, Matthias Eisenmenger, Corinna Hohlweck, Patrizia Mödinger","doi":"10.1515/jbnst-2022-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2022-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article aims to give background information of the combined business tax statistics 2016 of the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. The micro data set includes the different German business tax statistics, which are linked together (i.e. trade tax statistics, corporate income tax statistics, turnover tax statistics, statistics on business partnerships and associations as well as additional information of the statistical business register). With more than three million businesses the micro data set provides linked information on the German business structure and is available in anonymised form for scientific use at the Research Data Centre of the Federal Statistical Office.","PeriodicalId":45967,"journal":{"name":"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik","volume":"243 1","pages":"109 - 121"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49025597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We investigate the impact of errors in medium run tax revenue forecasts on the final budget balance. Our analysis is based on fiscal data for the entirety of German states and takes advantage of revenue forecasts and respective errors that can be considered as exogenously given in the budgeting process. We find that forecast errors at various forecast horizons translate considerably into the final budget balance, indicating that expenditure plans get only marginally adjusted when revenue forecasts get revised. Consequently, errors in tax revenue forecasts may considerably affect the accumulation of public debt. Our calculations suggest that a significant share of total debt of German states results from forecasts that were too optimistic.
{"title":"The Impact of Forecast Errors on Fiscal Planning and Debt Accumulation","authors":"Marten Ademmer, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe","doi":"10.1515/jbnst-2020-0054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2020-0054","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We investigate the impact of errors in medium run tax revenue forecasts on the final budget balance. Our analysis is based on fiscal data for the entirety of German states and takes advantage of revenue forecasts and respective errors that can be considered as exogenously given in the budgeting process. We find that forecast errors at various forecast horizons translate considerably into the final budget balance, indicating that expenditure plans get only marginally adjusted when revenue forecasts get revised. Consequently, errors in tax revenue forecasts may considerably affect the accumulation of public debt. Our calculations suggest that a significant share of total debt of German states results from forecasts that were too optimistic.","PeriodicalId":45967,"journal":{"name":"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik","volume":"242 1","pages":"171 - 190"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66923913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract I analyze the narratives that accompany business cycle forecasting reports of three German institutes using topic models. To this end, I gather multiple similar topics into different economic subject categories, allowing me to map shifting prioritizations within and between these subjects. Subsequently, I examine whether forecasting narratives contain additional information not captured by traditional indicators and include them in a random forest-based investment-forecast efficiency analysis. I find multiple correlations between narratives and forecast errors and conclude that forecasters inefficiently incorporate qualitative information in these cases. I raise the idea that further investigations with more precise identification of forecasting narratives could improve qualitative information processing or lead to scientific guidelines for forecast adjustments.
{"title":"Testing Investment Forecast Efficiency with Forecasting Narratives","authors":"Alexander Foltas","doi":"10.1515/jbnst-2020-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2020-0027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract I analyze the narratives that accompany business cycle forecasting reports of three German institutes using topic models. To this end, I gather multiple similar topics into different economic subject categories, allowing me to map shifting prioritizations within and between these subjects. Subsequently, I examine whether forecasting narratives contain additional information not captured by traditional indicators and include them in a random forest-based investment-forecast efficiency analysis. I find multiple correlations between narratives and forecast errors and conclude that forecasters inefficiently incorporate qualitative information in these cases. I raise the idea that further investigations with more precise identification of forecasting narratives could improve qualitative information processing or lead to scientific guidelines for forecast adjustments.","PeriodicalId":45967,"journal":{"name":"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik","volume":"242 1","pages":"191 - 222"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47781691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We study the driving forces behind COVID-19 vaccination in German counties using a cross-sectional and a panel approach. We identify several factors that have a significant impact on vaccination rates. Our results are robust to different model specifications.
{"title":"What Determines COVID-19 Vaccination Rates in Germany?","authors":"Maximilian Ambros, M. Frenkel","doi":"10.1515/jbnst-2021-0064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2021-0064","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study the driving forces behind COVID-19 vaccination in German counties using a cross-sectional and a panel approach. We identify several factors that have a significant impact on vaccination rates. Our results are robust to different model specifications.","PeriodicalId":45967,"journal":{"name":"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik","volume":"242 1","pages":"149 - 157"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49300012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zusammenfassung Albert O. Hirschmans Unterscheidung von „Abwanderung und Widerspruch“ als Antwort auf den Leistungsabfall von Staaten hat grosse Aufmerksamkeit gefunden. Es gibt jedoch eine dritte Antwort, nämlich Camouflage, Stillhalten als Tarnung, bis sich die Bedingungen verbessern. Diese Strategie wird häufig praktiziert, weil ihr Nutzen oft in einem günstigen Verhältnis zu den entstehenden Kosten steht. Die Kosten sind im Fall des Ausstiegs oder des Widerspruches oft hoch. Deshalb tarnt sich eine große Mehrheit der Bürgerinnen und Bürger, wenn sie mit den Ansichten und der Politik eines Regimes nicht einverstanden ist. Sie wartet, bis das unterdrückerische Regime zerbröckelt ist, um im richtigen Moment umso stärker aktiv werden zu können. Camouflage findet auch in privaten Unternehmungen, öffentlichen Einrichtungen und in der Wissenschaft statt. Nutzen und Kosten der drei Reaktionen – Abwanderung, Widerspruch und Camouflage – unterscheiden sich stark voneinander.
{"title":"Abwanderung, Widerspruch und Camouflage. Reaktionen auf demokratischen Leistungsabfall","authors":"B. Frey","doi":"10.1515/jbnst-2021-0065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2021-0065","url":null,"abstract":"Zusammenfassung Albert O. Hirschmans Unterscheidung von „Abwanderung und Widerspruch“ als Antwort auf den Leistungsabfall von Staaten hat grosse Aufmerksamkeit gefunden. Es gibt jedoch eine dritte Antwort, nämlich Camouflage, Stillhalten als Tarnung, bis sich die Bedingungen verbessern. Diese Strategie wird häufig praktiziert, weil ihr Nutzen oft in einem günstigen Verhältnis zu den entstehenden Kosten steht. Die Kosten sind im Fall des Ausstiegs oder des Widerspruches oft hoch. Deshalb tarnt sich eine große Mehrheit der Bürgerinnen und Bürger, wenn sie mit den Ansichten und der Politik eines Regimes nicht einverstanden ist. Sie wartet, bis das unterdrückerische Regime zerbröckelt ist, um im richtigen Moment umso stärker aktiv werden zu können. Camouflage findet auch in privaten Unternehmungen, öffentlichen Einrichtungen und in der Wissenschaft statt. Nutzen und Kosten der drei Reaktionen – Abwanderung, Widerspruch und Camouflage – unterscheiden sich stark voneinander.","PeriodicalId":45967,"journal":{"name":"Jahrbucher Fur Nationalokonomie Und Statistik","volume":"242 1","pages":"277 - 290"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66925234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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