Economic Change and Restructuring最新文献

Using a large panel of firm-level data, this paper provides an analysis of how inflation shocks in the Baltics between 1997 and 2020 affected total factor productivity (TFP), gross profitability, and net fixed investment in nonfinancial sectors. First, we find that inflation and inflation volatility had mixed effects on TFP growth, profitability and net fixed investment spending in the first year as well as over the medium term, albeit at a dissipating rate. Second, focusing on subsamples, we find that inflation shocks had differential effects on large versus small firms. Third, we explore sectoral heterogeneity in how firms responded to inflation shocks and observe significant variation across tradable and non-tradable sectors. Finally, estimates from a state-dependent model suggest that firms’ response to inflation shocks varied with the state of the economy. The results suggest that nonfinancial firms in the Baltics have been agile in adjusting to inflation shocks, possibly by either transferring higher production costs to consumers or substituting inputs. Given the differences in the level and nature of the recent inflation shock and the sample period on which our analysis is based, empirical findings presented in this paper might not necessarily apply to the latest bout of inflation in the Baltics.

This paper investigates how climate change and poverty affect child health inequality across 63 provinces in Vietnam from 2006 to 2023. By examining deaths and economic losses from storms and floods, we assess climate change’s impact; while, infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) serve as indicators of child health inequality. Findings reveal that climate change directly worsens child health inequality and exacerbates it indirectly by increasing poverty. Notably, the effects on U5MR are more pronounced than on IMR. Additionally, child vaccinations, healthcare infrastructure, and access to clean water are vital in reducing health disparities and mitigating climate change’s harmful effects on child health.

Public R&D stimulates domestic private and foreign private and public R&D, together enhancing technical change and thereby GDP. In this paper, we evaluate vector-error-correction model (VECM) estimations and simulations of a companion paper in regard to internal rates of return (and related aspects) to additional public R&D of OECD countries and compare them to the macroeconomic literature. We show (i) internal rates of return to public R&D shocks, and (ii) the related payback periods, gain/GDP ratios, and sums of discounted (at 4%) gains. Fourteen of 17 countries show high internal rates of return, short payback periods, and high gains/GDP ratios from positive public R&D shocks if projects are stopped when gains get negative. Three countries show crowding-out effects and require (initial) reductions of public R&D before showing positive results.

The paper investigates whether public debt explains income inequality in several Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The core method employed is the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator, which uses a dataset covering the period 1997–2019. The key findings reveal that public debt tends to reduce inequality among the poor but may harm the rich in the WAEMU region. Public debt generally has a neutral impact on inequality in EMCCA but can improve income distribution among the rich under stringent corruption control. In terms of contributions, the paper is one of the first works that examine how public debt impacts inequality in the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries across different levels of income. Moreover, it explores the intricate relationship among public debt, socio-economic characteristics, corruption, and inequality within the region.

This research examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty, GDP, population and renewable energy consumption on CO₂ emissions in BRIC countries from 1991 to 2023. The objective is to understand the long-term relationships among these variables and provide relevant insights. Using fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares econometric methods, the findings reveal that GDP and population growth significantly increase CO₂ emissions, while renewable energy consumption reduces them. The panel autoregressive distributed lag results highlight the need for policies promoting renewable energy and managing population growth to mitigate environmental impacts. Notably, economic policy uncertainty also contributes to higher emissions, underscoring the importance of stable economic policies.

This study examines the determinants of new firm creation in Africa, focusing on external and internal funding sources and their interactions. It also explores the influence of colonial history by separately analyzing former British and French colonies. The primary goal is to help fill crucial gaps in African literature on the determinants of entrepreneurship. Given Africa's widespread poverty and underdevelopment, understanding what drives entrepreneurship is essential for job creation and economic growth. The study reveals three key findings. First, at the full sample level, remittances are the only external financing source positively associated with new firm creation, while foreign aid and foreign direct investment obstacle it. Internal sources, like savings and credit, do not show significant effects. Second, the subsample analysis reveals heterogeneous results: former British colonies' funding sources align with the overall findings, while in former French colonies, only savings support entrepreneurship. Third, considering control variables, the subsample analysis indicates two distinct entrepreneurship models: opportunity-based in former British colonies and necessity-based in former French colonies. These findings are noteworthy and provide significant policy implications at both national and international levels. Crucially, the positive role of remittances in financing new business initiatives, confirms that migration serves as a mutually beneficial arrangement for both sending African countries and the host countries.

This study examines the causality between basic, technology-intensive, and differentiated manufacturing exports and economic growth in Kuwait using data from 1970 to 2021 and two augmented production function models: one with natural resource exports (Model 1) and the other without on both sides of the model (Model 2). The Johansen cointegration and the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound tests are conducted to examine the long-run relationship between the variables. In addition, the Granger causality test in a vector autoregressive framework (VAR) and the Toda–Yamamoto test are employed to explore the directions of the short- and long-run causality between variables, respectively. The empirical results of Model 1 indicate that neither of the decomposed manufacturing exports directly causes economic growth in the short or long run at any conventional significance level, whereas natural resource exports cause economic growth, basic and technology-intensive manufactured exports in the short-run at the 5% level. Model 2 estimations confirm the absence of direct causality between decomposed manufacturing exports and economic growth, whereas a long-run causality runs from output net of natural resource exports to basic manufactured exports at the 10% level. Both model estimations indicate that all the variables jointly cause economic growth and basic manufactured exports in the short and long run, directly or indirectly through imports, confirming the existence of a circular causation. These findings can serve as the basis for designing specific export–import policies to foster diversification and a sustainable economic growth in line with Kuwait’s Vision 2035.

Tourism competitiveness has always been a crucial aspect of tourism research. With the emergence of the digital economy, it is important to understand how this new form of economic activity impacts tourism competitiveness. This paper utilizes the configurational theory of systems thinking to examine the complex causal impact of the digital economy on tourism competitiveness. The paper finds that none of the digital economy variables are necessary for tourism competitiveness. There are two basic paths for the digital economy to drive high tourist destination competitiveness: dual-driven model of digital infrastructure and finance occurring in less developed regions and digital regulation-led dual-driven model of digital innovation and finance occurring in developed regions. The reliability of the findings is confirmed by rigorous robustness tests. This research furnishes critical insights into the digital economy and tourism competitiveness theories and applications.

The aim of the paper is to evaluate the influence of education on tax evasion. This study proposes a theoretical model, in which an agent can choose to allocate his labor effort between two production technologies. Higher levels of education lead to more skilled and specialized workers, and the tax authority can observe the use of advanced tools and equipment. The main result is that an increase in the general level of education leads to a labor effort substitution effect, showing that higher education can reduce tax evasion and the size of the shadow economy. Both static and dynamic estimation techniques are employed to test the theoretical findings, using a sample of 133 countries, over the period 2001–2020. The empirical analysis confirms the significant negative association between education and shadow economy.

This study investigated how international tourism is impacting on environmental quality and renewable energy use in Africa, and how governance institutions on the continent are moderating these relationships. We employed the system GMM technique with a panel of 31 African economies from 2011 to 2020. We find that while international tourism is not a significant driver of environmental quality in Africa, it is significantly hampering renewable energy use on the continent. We also find that even though the unconditional effects of governance institutions on environmental quality are predominantly muted, their moderation role in the tourism-environmental quality relationship indicates that they offer potent channels for enhancing the contribution of the tourism sector toward improved environmental quality in Africa. Our results further indicate that governance institutions in Africa are significantly hampering the use of renewable energy, while their moderation role on the tourism-renewable energy use relationship is mainly muted. These findings generally highlight the fact that Africa is yet to harness its tourism potentials, while simultaneously dealing with the challenge of weak governance institutions. Among others, we recommended that policymakers and leaders in Africa should work together to harness the tourism potentials of the region and improve the quality of governance institutions.