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Dynamic volatility among fossil energy, clean energy and major assets: evidence from the novel DCC-GARCH 化石能源、清洁能源和主要资产之间的动态波动性:来自新型 DCC-GARCH 的证据
IF 3.1 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1007/s10644-024-09696-9
Oktay Ozkan, Salah Abosedra, Arshian Sharif, Andrew Adewale Alola

The objective of this paper is to assess the dynamic volatility connectedness between fossil energy, clean energy, and major assets i.e., Bonds, Bitcoin, Dollar index, Gold, and Standard and Poor's 500 from September 17, 2014 to October 11, 2022. The main motivation of the study relates to examining the dynamic volatility connectedness mentioned during periods of important events such as the recent coronavirus pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict which has shown the vulnerability of economic and financial assets, energy commodities, and clean energy. The novel Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) approach is employed for the investigation of the sample period mentioned. Empirical analysis reveals that both the total and net volatility connectedness between assets is time-varying. The highest connectedness among the assets is observed with the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and it increases with some important international events, such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the referendum of Brexit, China–US trade war, and Brexit day. On average, the result shows that 32.8% of the volatility in one asset spills over to all other assets. The DCC-GARCH results also indicate that crude oil, bonds, and Bitcoin act as almost pure volatility transmitters, whereas the Dollar index, gold, and S&P500 act as volatility receivers. On the other hand, clean energy is found neutral to external shocks until the first quarter of 2020 and after that time, it starts to behave as a volatility transmitter. Based on the obtained results, we offer some specific policy implications that are beneficial to the US economy and other countries.

Graphical Abstract

Dynamic volatility connectedness between fossil energy, clean energy, and major assets (Bonds, Bitcoin, Dollar index, Gold, and Standard and Poor's 500)

本文旨在评估 2014 年 9 月 17 日至 2022 年 10 月 11 日期间化石能源、清洁能源与主要资产(即债券、比特币、美元指数、黄金和标准普尔 500 指数)之间的动态波动关联性。本研究的主要动机是研究在一些重要事件(如最近的冠状病毒大流行和俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突)期间提到的动态波动关联性,这些事件显示了经济和金融资产、能源商品和清洁能源的脆弱性。本文采用了新颖的动态条件相关-广义自回归条件异方差(DCC-GARCH)方法对上述样本期进行研究。实证分析表明,资产之间的总波动率和净波动率关联性都是随时间变化的。冠状病毒(COVID-19)疫情爆发时,资产间的关联度最高,而随着一些重要国际事件的发生,如俄乌冲突、英国脱欧公投、中美贸易战、英国脱欧日等,资产间的关联度也随之增加。平均而言,结果显示一种资产 32.8% 的波动会波及所有其他资产。DCC-GARCH 结果还表明,原油、债券和比特币几乎是纯粹的波动率传递者,而美元指数、黄金和 S&P500 则是波动率接收者。另一方面,清洁能源在 2020 年第一季度之前对外部冲击保持中立,之后则开始成为波动率的传播者。基于所获得的结果,我们提出了一些对美国经济和其他国家有利的具体政策含义。 图表摘要化石能源、清洁能源和主要资产(债券、比特币、美元指数、黄金和标准普尔 500 指数)之间的动态波动性关联性
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引用次数: 0
Low-carbon economy modeling through triple bottom line framework 通过三重底线框架建立低碳经济模型
IF 3.1 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-10 DOI: 10.1007/s10644-024-09693-y
Weiqing Sun, Xingkuan Yin

This study focuses on establishing a low-carbon economic model across 20 developing Asian economies using the triple bottom line (TBL) framework. Analyzing annual data from 2000 to 2021 reveals key insights. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) significantly impacts the Green Growth Index (GGI), with a 1% CPI increase associated with a 0.48% long-term and 0.36% short-term GGI decrease. Increased foreign direct investment (FDI) acts as a deterrent to GGI motivation, with a 1% rise linked to a 0.32% long-term and 0.25% short-term GGI decrease. Social variables show nuanced impacts, while environmental factors highlight carbon footprint as a barrier and forest land surface as a motivator. Recommendations include adopting a TBL-informed approach, addressing inflation, promoting sustainable FDI, prioritizing social development, and implementing measures to curb carbon emissions, alongside encouraging afforestation and conservation initiatives.

本研究的重点是利用三重底线(TBL)框架,在 20 个亚洲发展中经济体中建立低碳经济模式。通过分析 2000 年至 2021 年的年度数据,我们发现了一些重要的启示。消费者价格指数(CPI)对绿色增长指数(GGI)有显著影响,CPI 上升 1%,GGI 长期下降 0.48%,短期下降 0.36%。外国直接投资(FDI)的增加会抑制 GGI 的增长,1%的增长会导致 GGI 长期下降 0.32%,短期下降 0.25%。社会变量显示了细微的影响,而环境因素则突出了碳足迹的阻碍作用和林地表面的激励作用。建议包括采用以 TBL 为基础的方法、解决通货膨胀问题、促进可持续的外国直接投资、优先考虑社会发展、采取措施抑制碳排放,同时鼓励植树造林和保护举措。
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引用次数: 0
ICT service exports and CO2 emissions in OECD countries: the moderating effect of regulatory quality 经合组织国家的信息和通信技术服务出口与二氧化碳排放:监管质量的调节作用
IF 3.1 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-10 DOI: 10.1007/s10644-024-09685-y
Umair Kashif, Junguo Shi, Snovia Naseem, Shanshan Dou, Zohaib Zahid

This research assesses the impact of information communication technology (ICT) service exports on carbon (CO2) emissions and examines regulatory quality’s moderating role. The study sample comprises OECD countries’ data from 2001 to 2019. Random-effect generalized least-square regression, feasible generalized least square, and panel-corrected standard error models are used for the estimations. The results show that ICT service exports are negatively related to CO2 emissions, and the negative effect of ICT on CO2 emissions will be enhanced when regulatory quality is higher. OECD countries should give greater support to improve the innovation capabilities of ICT companies and implement more sound policies and regulations to achieve sustainable development goals and carbon neutrality.

本研究评估了信息通信技术(ICT)服务出口对碳(CO2)排放的影响,并考察了监管质量的调节作用。研究样本包括经合组织国家 2001 年至 2019 年的数据。采用随机效应广义最小二乘法回归、可行广义最小二乘法和面板校正标准误差模型进行估计。结果表明,ICT 服务出口与二氧化碳排放负相关,当监管质量较高时,ICT 对二氧化碳排放的负效应会增强。经合组织国家应加大支持力度,提高 ICT 企业的创新能力,实施更加完善的政策法规,以实现可持续发展目标和碳中和。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the nexus between poor governance and household food security 探索治理不善与家庭粮食安全之间的关系
IF 3.1 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1007/s10644-024-09679-w

Abstract

A cross-sectional-based study was conducted in Torghar Pakistan to analyze the association between impacts of poor governance and household food security through sociological lens. A sample size of 379 household heads was chosen randomly for data collection through structured questionnaire. The collected data was then analyzed in terms of bivariate and multivariate analyses, and binary logit model. At bivariate analysis, the study found that inadequate governance, political instability in terms of shortage of food supply chain, smuggling of food commodities had open new vistas toward starvation and household food insecurity. At multivariate analysis, the family composition has vivid association between household food security and poor governance. Although religious education and lower level of education deteriorate the existing food security at household level were also explored. Lastly, at binary logistic regression model depicted that increased in poor governance influence household food security negatively. Thus, the government should collaborate with local political leaders to identify those lacunas and institutional weakness that affect the good governance patterns in terms of smuggling and nepotism which deteriorate the existing channel of food supply chain during militancy were put forwarded some of the recommendations in light of the present study.

摘要 在巴基斯坦托加尔开展了一项横断面研究,通过社会学视角分析治理不善的影响与家庭粮食安全之间的关联。随机选择了 379 个家庭户主作为样本,通过结构化问卷收集数据。然后对收集到的数据进行了二元和多元分析以及二元对数模型分析。在二元分析中,研究发现,治理不善、政治不稳定(粮食供应链短缺)、粮食商品走私为饥饿和家庭粮食不安全开辟了新的前景。在多变量分析中,家庭组成在家庭粮食安全和治理不善之间有着明显的联系。虽然宗教教育和较低的教育水平会使家庭现有的粮食安全状况恶化,但也进行了探讨。最后,二元逻辑回归模型显示,治理不善程度的增加会对家庭粮食安全产生负面影响。因此,本研究提出了一些建议,即政府应与地方政治领导人合作,找出那些影响善治模式的漏洞和制度薄弱环节,如走私和裙带关系等,因为它们会在好战时期恶化现有的粮食供应链渠道。
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引用次数: 0
Does energy technology R&D save energy in OECD countries? 经合组织国家的能源技术研发是否节约能源?
IF 3.1 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10644-024-09588-y
Masako Ikegami, Zijian Wang

The relationship between energy technology R&D and energy consumption has remained an unsettled empirical issue. This study investigates whether accumulative energy technology R&D investments have contributed to decreases in final energy and fossil fuel consumption in 19 OECD countries over the period 1975–2020. We ask whether an increase in energy technology R&D stocks has contributed to decreases in final energy and fossil fuel consumption and hence may effect energy savings. Methodologically, we treat the accumulation and depreciation of energy technology R&D investments as R&D stocks, and we use state-of-the-art estimation methods for dealing with cross-sectional dependence, nonstationarity, heterogeneity and time-varying coefficients that often plague panel-time-series models. Across our heterogeneous dynamic models, we find those estimators that properly account for cross-sectional dependence yield negative and significant coefficients on energy technology R&D stocks. Our time-varying estimates on energy technology R&D stocks confirm the above findings and feature two turning points—i.e., the 1979 oil shock, the Fukushima accident—in effecting energy savings. These two turning points provide strong evidence that the sample countries are subject to common shocks. The evidence we present supports the environmental sustainability orientated view that energy technology R&D is playing a prominent role in making energy savings.

能源技术研发与能源消耗之间的关系一直是一个悬而未决的经验问题。本研究调查了 19 个经合组织国家在 1975-2020 年间累积的能源技术研发投资是否导致了最终能源和化石燃料消耗的下降。我们的问题是,能源技术研究与开发存量的增加是否促进了最终能源和化石燃料消费量的下降,从而影响了能源节约。在方法上,我们将能源技术研发投资的积累和折旧视为研发存量,并采用最先进的估算方法来处理经常困扰面板时间序列模型的横截面依赖性、非平稳性、异质性和时变系数。在我们的异质性动态模型中,我们发现那些适当考虑了横截面依赖性的估计方法对能源技术研发存量产生了显著的负系数。我们对能源技术 R&D 库存的时变估计结果证实了上述结论,并显示出两个转折点--即 1979 年的石油冲击和福岛事故--对能源节约的影响。这两个转折点有力地证明了样本国家受到了共同的冲击。我们提出的证据支持了以环境可持续发展为导向的观点,即能源技术研发在节能方面发挥着突出作用。
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引用次数: 0
How does environmental performance ensured energy transition? Impact of ecological change 环境绩效如何确保能源转型?生态变化的影响
IF 3.1 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10644-024-09636-7
Zixin Liu, Shuguang Zhang

This study delves into the complicated relationship between environmental performance and support for energy transition, emphasizing how ecological change influences this process. The analysis covers the period from 2005 to 2021, which includes a time of major worldwide changes in geopolitics, financial markets, and environmental concerns. In order to examine the complex and diverse dynamics, the study uses the time-varying vector auto-regression model, an advanced methodology specifically developed to capture the dynamic interactions between variables as they change over time. Drawing from various scholarly works, this study discusses how an effective environmental performance framework can contribute to and guarantee the successful transition toward sustainable energy practices. By clarifying the synergies between environmental performance and energy, this study provides valuable input into an urgent discussion of designing resilient future sustainability models in terms of energy.

本研究深入探讨了环境绩效与支持能源转型之间的复杂关系,强调了生态变化如何影响这一过程。分析时间跨度为 2005 年至 2021 年,期间地缘政治、金融市场和环境问题都发生了重大变化。为了研究复杂多样的动态变化,本研究采用了时变向量自回归模型,这是一种专门为捕捉变量随时间变化而产生的动态交互作用而开发的先进方法。本研究借鉴了各种学术著作,讨论了有效的环境绩效框架如何有助于并保证向可持续能源实践的成功转型。通过阐明环境绩效与能源之间的协同作用,本研究为设计具有弹性的未来能源可持续发展模式的迫切讨论提供了宝贵的意见。
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引用次数: 0
Does the political promotion incentive of state-owned enterprise executives facilitate green innovation? 国有企业高管的政治晋升激励是否有利于绿色创新?
IF 3.1 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10644-024-09671-4
Yiyang Gu, Peng Wu, Lei Gao

There is now a global consensus on the imperative need for energy transition and sustainability. Green innovation has emerged as a key driver to achieve these goals, and governments have recognized the importance of facilitating it. Within this context, we offer a unique perspective by examining the impact of political promotion incentives on green innovation among executives of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), shedding light on the government’s role in fostering energy transition and sustainable practices. Our findings demonstrate that governments can effectively foster a commitment to green innovation among SOE executives by integrating green indicators into the criteria used for political promotions. Notably, we find that this positive influence is more prominent when the likelihood of political promotion is higher. We provide valuable recommendations for policymakers seeking to facilitate energy transition and drive sustainable development, particularly for economies with a substantial SOE presence.

能源转型和可持续发展的迫切需要现已成为全球共识。绿色创新已成为实现这些目标的关键驱动力,各国政府也已认识到促进绿色创新的重要性。在此背景下,我们提供了一个独特的视角,研究了政治促进激励机制对国有企业高管绿色创新的影响,揭示了政府在促进能源转型和可持续发展实践中的作用。我们的研究结果表明,政府可以通过将绿色指标纳入政治晋升标准,有效促进国有企业高管致力于绿色创新。值得注意的是,我们发现当政治晋升的可能性越高时,这种积极影响就越明显。我们为寻求促进能源转型和推动可持续发展的政策制定者提供了宝贵的建议,尤其是对于拥有大量国有企业的经济体。
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引用次数: 0
Public–private partnerships for energy transition: studying role of economic change and energy restructuring over the time 促进能源转型的公私伙伴关系:研究经济变革和能源结构调整在不同时期的作用
IF 3.1 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10644-024-09606-z
Mintian He, Shuili Yang

The absence of consistent access to efficient energy sources has far-reaching consequences for people's health, their finances, and the economy as a whole. Using the UNDP human development index as a yardstick, this article compares and contrasts the effects of polluting versus clean energy sources on household economic growth, diverting attention away from the negative health consequences associated with energy poverty. Families who converted to renewable energy had an average 12.2% boost in family development, according to a comparison of 2005 and 2012 data from the Indian Human Development Survey. Taking into consideration the potential for endogeneity does not change the outcomes. We also found that, despite a surge in cleaner energy forms, families are still using polluting sources of power, which goes against our beliefs. Combating the increasing tendency for harmful energy usage requires government intervention and further research.

无法持续获得高效能源会对人们的健康、经济和整体经济产生深远影响。本文以联合国开发计划署的人类发展指数为衡量标准,对比了污染能源和清洁能源对家庭经济增长的影响,从而将人们的注意力从与能源贫困相关的负面健康后果上转移开。根据印度人类发展调查 2005 年和 2012 年的数据对比,改用可再生能源的家庭平均提高了 12.2% 的家庭发展水平。考虑到潜在的内生性并不会改变结果。我们还发现,尽管清洁能源形式激增,但家庭仍在使用污染性能源,这与我们的想法背道而驰。要消除日益增长的有害能源使用趋势,需要政府的干预和进一步的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Advancing toward a sustainable future: assessing the impact of energy transition, circular economy, and international trade on carbon footprint 迈向可持续的未来:评估能源转型、循环经济和国际贸易对碳足迹的影响
IF 3.1 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10644-024-09621-0
Yukun Cao, Jingxuan Cai, Xiangyue Liu

This study explores the connections between energy transition, circular economy principles, and international trade to lessen carbon footprints for a sustainable future. It uses in-depth modeling and data analysis to show how they affect greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The study underscores the necessity of tackling the loss of natural resources, mainly due to insufficient waste management. It also stresses the transition from a linear to a circular economy. It validates the potential of the circular economy to reduce carbon emissions across eight key emitting countries through extensive research using scientific data from 1991 to 2021 and the AMG technique. It also draws a connection between development, high carbon emissions intensity, and efficient waste management in particular countries, supporting renewable energy as a beneficial environmental option. The report offers practical sustainability solutions for long-term implementation and identifies municipal garbage as a significant source of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

本研究探讨了能源转型、循环经济原则和国际贸易之间的联系,以减少碳足迹,实现可持续发展的未来。它利用深入的建模和数据分析来说明它们如何影响温室气体排放的减缓。研究强调,必须解决主要由于废物管理不足造成的自然资源损失问题。它还强调了从线性经济向循环经济的过渡。通过使用 1991 年至 2021 年的科学数据和 AMG 技术进行广泛研究,该研究验证了循环经济在八个主要排放国减少碳排放的潜力。报告还将特定国家的发展、高碳排放强度和高效废物管理联系起来,支持将可再生能源作为一种有益的环境选择。报告为长期实施提供了切实可行的可持续发展解决方案,并指出城市垃圾是空气污染和温室气体排放的重要来源。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of inter-country corruption differences on wages and economic growth 国家间腐败差异对工资和经济增长的影响
IF 3.1 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10644-024-09662-5
Óscar Afonso, Mafalda Pinho

Theoretically and numerically, this paper attempts to examine the macroeconomic effects of corruption by using the two-country directed technical change model. At a single-country level, an increase in corruption levels in one country leads to an intra-country decrease in the demand for labor and wages and a permanent slowdown of technological-knowledge progress and economic growth. At the inter-country level, a country-specific increase in corruption enlarges inter-country wage and technological-knowledge gaps. Overall, higher corruption levels in one country are detrimental to global economic growth. Through calibration, it is shown that when the differences between the corruption of non-corrupt and corrupt countries increase: (1) economic growth is mainly stimulated in the corrupt countries India, Mexico, and Brazil; (2) the lowest wage inequality compared to non-corrupt countries is observed in the corrupt countries Greece, Portugal, and Spain.

本文试图利用两国定向技术变革模型,从理论和数值上研究腐败对宏观经济的影响。在单国层面上,一国腐败水平的上升会导致国内对劳动力和工资的需求下降,技术知识进步和经济增长永久放缓。在国家间层面,特定国家的腐败增加会扩大国家间的工资和技术知识差距。总体而言,一国的腐败水平越高,对全球经济增长越不利。通过校准,可以发现当非腐败国家和腐败国家的腐败程度差异增大时:(1)经济增长主要受腐败国家印度、墨西哥和巴西的刺激;(2)与非腐败国家相比,腐败国家希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙的工资不平等程度最低。
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引用次数: 0
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Economic Change and Restructuring
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