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The 2004 tsunami and coastal subsidence resulted in 97% mangrove loss in the Nicobar Islands (India), leading to major social-ecological change. We assessed how the Nicobar mangrove social-ecological system (SES) responded to the 2004 event using the adaptive cycle (AC) framework. We describe the changes across AC phases (collapse-Ω, reorganisation-α, growth-r, and conservation-K) concerning various capital types (natural, built, human, social), connectedness and resilience. The subsidence and tsunami triggered a rapid collapse (Ω) in the mangrove SES, particularly depleting natural and built capitals. Despite declines in social and human capital, some knowledge and skills were retained within Nicobari communities. We suggest that locally managed interventions involving mangrove restoration are critical to escape the poverty trap caused by resource insufficiency hindering growth. The AC model helps visualise and describe temporal changes, preparing for recovery challenges. This approach is relevant to SESs beyond Nicobar, offering insights for sites confronting similar social-ecological dynamics and challenges.

Peri-urban areas provide multiple ecosystem services, but face critical challenges, including deforestation, unplanned urban sprawl, and environmental pollution and degradation. To address these issues, environmental public policy instruments have been implemented. This paper aims to investigate the social ecological trajectories of a peri-urban area of Mexico City and the role of environmental public policy instruments in addressing land use change. Focusing on four watersheds of the southern periphery of the city, we analyze land use change drivers through neural networks and Markov chains, and we develop two land use scenarios for the next 20 years: one characterized by business as usual and another with a more restrictive land use regime. Our findings show that infrastructure drivers are the most critical factor overall, when combined with the historical social ecological trajectory of the study area. The impact of environmental public policy instruments on future trajectories demonstrates their potential to decrease deforestation. The results provide insights for the integrated territorial planning of peri-urban areas with similar social ecological dynamics and developing context.

Climate change is causing rapid warming in the Arctic, which, alongside other physical, socio-economic, cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors, is driving change in the far north. This research presents a conceptual model summarizing Arctic change factors which in turn was used in the design of a Delphi exercise which leveraged a variety of experts to forecast trajectories in different parts of the Arctic. Based on these experts’ expectations for economic and governance outcomes by 2050, we find that our results illustrate the “many Arctics” concept or some of the ways in which the Arctic is heterogenous now, and perhaps becoming increasingly so in the future. Sub-regions of the Arctic differed in expert expectations about the future of resource extraction, tourism, Indigenous self-determination, and military activity, among other outcomes. This work also discusses the post-2022 geopolitical situation and some potential implications of “many Arctics” for policy and future governance.

While policy interest and research on recreational ecosystem services (RES) has increased substantially, insights into the actual flows of benefits to people have remained scarce, especially at levels beyond local communities. This paper aims to model RES Flows and Benefits for Germany in monetary and non-monetary terms. We use Germany as a case study due its diversity of landscapes and availability of relevant spatial and empirical data. We develop and apply an assessment approach that considers RES Demand and Supply based on user preferences. Our results show distinct demand–supply matches and mismatches, for example in southwest Germany, and highest flows near population centres. Monetary benefits are highest in counties with high RES Supply that are close to densely populated areas. Our results can usefully inform planning and decision-making, for example to improve and further justify destination management, landscape development, and investments in RES at local, regional, and national levels.

Pastoralism is gaining in recognition for its provision of a broad range of ecosystem services. However, in Western countries, especially in Europe, it has been in decline for decades and its future is uncertain. Professional satisfaction, social appreciation and community integration are key factors for the sustainability of any activity. Using information from 167 traditional Spanish herders, we assessed their perceived degree of satisfaction with their profession and the reasons behind their perceptions. Herders were extremely satisfied with their profession, but they perceived medium and low levels of appreciation by the rural and urban sectors of society, respectively. Herders had negative feelings about the sustainability of their profession, as they felt more appreciated by society in the past than they do today, half of them did not want their offspring to make a living as herders. Improving communication between herders and society could help to enhance herders’ appreciation of their profession.

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Geodesign supports collaborative urban planning by managing ‘boundaries’ between diverse knowledge holders. However, there is a paucity of empirical evidence of its contribution to ‘boundary work’. This paper aims to evaluate how a geodesign process facilitates knowledge co-production through boundary work and to assess the scientific credibility, political saliency, and procedural legitimacy of its outputs in urban planning. We propose a replicable geodesign framework to assess boundary work, and test it in a case study on urban transformations with nature-based solutions in the Skarpnäck district of Stockholm, Sweden. Findings indicate that all geodesign steps facilitated communication by promoting collective reasoning. Participants acknowledged contributions to knowledge co-production and decision-making by mediating between different perspectives. However, data quality and modeling simplicity were identified as critical factors affecting the outputs’ perceived credibility. Future applications should include co-designing the geodesign process, improving capacity and skills, and facilitating more integrated planning.

While being a major economic development force for tropical islands, tourism may aggravate disturbances on local water resources (scarcity, pollution) and the surrounding ecosystem. In this work, we used a discrete events modelling approach to characterize trajectories of Cat Ba Island (Vietnam) and its ability to reach specific trajectories. We wanted to assess if a healthy social ecosystem could be compatible with tourism. We found that co-existence between water resources and tourism may be reached; moreover, a systemic state where ecosystem and sociosystem can sustainably coexist may be reached. The implementation of urban ecological infrastructure is a key process to shift from the present state towards more favourable states. Another significant result is that the departure from the present state to reach more favourable ones may lead to a transitory degraded situation; only by keeping in mind the systemic objective significant transformations can be carried out.

Groundwater is an essential resource for drinking water, food production, and industrial applications worldwide. Over-exploitation and pollution pose significant risks to groundwater sustainability. Groundwater models can be powerful tools for optimizing use, managing risks, and aiding decision-making. For this purpose, models should assimilate pertinent data and quantify uncertainties in outcomes. We examine applied modelling for characterization and decision support in Sweden from 2010 to 2023. We also review syllabi of water-related courses in Swedish higher education to assess the inclusion and extent of groundwater modelling education. We find that important academic advances in groundwater modelling over the past two decades have not translated into practical application within Sweden’s industry, that uncertainty quantification is rarely undertaken, and that groundwater modelling remains a low priority in higher education. Based on these findings, we offer recommendations that, while informed by the Swedish context, hold relevance for educational institutions, industry, and decision-makers internationally.

This article uses the Resilient Community Development frame to explore how the residents from two coastal settlements in the Russian Arctic cope with the long-term effects of climate change, permafrost thaw and challenging socio-economic conditions. Semi-structured interviews were conducted in 2019 in Tiksi and Bykovsky (Republic of Sakha, Russia). These narratives were coded and qualitatively analyzed using the aforementioned framing as a guideline. This article shows that migration, mobility, culture, history, identity and extended networks play a key role in the way that these residents cope with disturbances and upheavals. Sharing past experiences and specific ways to interact with their natural environment, other neighbors and the land they live in are pivotal for the local social configuration and can underpin identity processes. This analysis demonstrates that residents’ narratives regarding socio-economic challenges, climate change and permafrost thaw can inform us about short-term concerns, but also how to enhance long-term community resilience.

The urban development of Rome (Italy) has been intertwined with the dynamics of the Tiber River since its foundation. In this review paper, we analyse more than 2500 years of flood history and urban development to untangle the dynamics of flood risk and assess the resulting socio-hydrological phenomena. Until the 1800s, urban dwellers living in the riparian areas of the Tiber River were accustomed to frequent flooding. From the 1900s, the construction of flood walls reshaped the co-evolution of hydrological, economic, political, technological, and social processes. As a result, while the probability of flooding is currently very low, its potential adverse consequences would be catastrophic. From the analysis of the long-term feedback between urban development of Rome and flood events from ancient times to present days, it emerges the crucial need for an effective flood risk mitigation strategy that combines structural and non-structural measures. In particular, heightened flood risk awareness and preparedness to cope with rare but potentially devastating events is key to alleviate flood risk.