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Chaotic Structure of Oil Prices, Inflation and Unemployment. 石油价格、通货膨胀和失业的混沌结构。
IF 0.9 4区 心理学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-07-01
Melike E Bildirici, Fulya Ozaksoy Sonustun

This article investigates the chaotic relationship among inflation rate, unemployment rate and oil prices over the period of January, 1974-October, 2018 in the USA. This study complements the previous studies on this subject. However, it differs from the existing literature in examination of inflation-unemployment trade-off by a neural network model in which oil prices are considered as an exogenous variable, and in analyzing the chaotic causality relation among the variables by Hristu-Varsakelis and Kyrtsou and Bai nonlinear causality tests. The results first suggested by a class of neural network model, which was the multi-layer perceptron (MLP), pointed out an important relation among the analyzed variables. Accordingly, oil price changes have substantial effect on unemployment and inflation. Following, the empirical findings of Hristu-Varsakelis and Kyrtsou and Bai nonlinear causality tests show that there is a unidirectional chaotic relation from oil price to inflation, from oil price to unemployment and from inflation to unemployment.

本文研究了1974年1月至2018年10月期间美国通货膨胀率、失业率和油价之间的混沌关系。这项研究补充了先前对这一课题的研究。但与现有文献不同的是,本文采用神经网络模型将油价作为外生变量来检验通胀-失业权衡,采用hritu - varsakelis和Kyrtsou and Bai非线性因果检验分析变量之间的混沌因果关系。结果首先由一类神经网络模型,即多层感知器(MLP)提出,指出了被分析变量之间的重要关系。因此,油价变化对失业率和通货膨胀有实质性影响。随后,Hristu-Varsakelis和Kyrtsou and Bai非线性因果检验的实证结果表明,油价与通货膨胀、油价与失业、通货膨胀与失业之间存在单向混沌关系。
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引用次数: 0
The Spontaneous Rise of the Herd Instinct: Agent-Based Simulation. 群体本能的自发兴起:基于主体的模拟。
IF 0.9 4区 心理学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-07-01
Stanislaw Raczynski

The problem being investigated is the spontaneous rise of the herd instinct in an artificial population, where the population members have no explicit stimuli for such instinct implanted in their original behavior patterns. The simulations are focused on the creation of the herd instinct in the population that originally does not reveal the gregarious behavior. In this agent-based model, the members of the population (agents) move over a limited region, look for renewable food, reproduce, escape a threat and die. The evolution of the herd instinct is simulated. No explicit instinct is imposed on the agents. It is pointed out that both the search for food and fear, are factors that cause the rise of the herd instinct. The evolution of the amount of the instinct is slow and needs long model time intervals, running over several hundred generations of the agents. The herd instinct is inherited from parent agents during the reproduction, with certain random deviation. This makes the total amount of the instinct evolve and reach an optimal level.

正在研究的问题是,在人工种群中,群体本能的自发上升,种群成员在其原始行为模式中没有植入这种本能的明确刺激。模拟的重点是群体本能的产生,而群体本能最初并没有揭示群居行为。在这个基于智能体的模型中,群体中的成员(智能体)在有限的区域内移动,寻找可再生食物,繁殖,逃离威胁并死亡。模拟了群体本能的进化过程。没有明确的本能强加给代理人。有人指出,寻找食物和恐惧都是导致群体本能上升的因素。本能数量的进化是缓慢的,需要很长的模型时间间隔,运行几百代代理。群体本能是在繁殖过程中遗传自亲本个体的,存在一定的随机偏差。这使得本能的总量进化并达到最佳水平。
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引用次数: 0
Physiological Synchronization and Subjective Workload in a Competitive Emergency Response Task. 竞争性应急任务中的生理同步性与主观工作量
IF 0.9 4区 心理学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-07-01
Stephen J Guastello, Anthony N Correro Ii, David E Marra, Anthony F Peressini

Human dyads and larger teams tend to acquire synchronized movements and autonomic arousal levels while working together or simply socializing. The synchronization of arousal patterns is of theoretical interest for group dynamics because they may add predictive value to the dynamics of group cohesion and team performance. This study examined the four-way relationship among experimental conditions: team size, task difficulty, time pressure (between-subjects) and subsequent experimental sessions (within-subjects). Previously, we have shown these conditions affect subjective ratings of workload that come from individual and group-level sources, synchronization of arousal, and team performance. In an experiment involving an emergency response (ER) simulation, 360 undergraduates, who were wearing electrodermal sensors, were organized into 44 teams of various sizes. Workload was experimentally varied by team size (three, four, seven or eight members), number of opponents (one or two), and time pressure; the latter was introduced sooner or later across two experimental sessions. Results showed that the experimental conditions affected synchronization levels, either at the beginning of a session or in the middle; synchronization and experimental conditions were not directly related to team performance. Subjective group workload ratings of the coordination demand of the task correlated with synchronization at the beginning of a session while team satisfaction was correlated with greater synchrony at the end of a session. The competitive nature of the ER task, as compared to strictly cooperative tasks, could be responsible for the complexity of these empirical relationships.

人类二人组和更大的团队倾向于在一起工作或仅仅是社交时获得同步运动和自主觉醒水平。唤醒模式的同步性对群体动力学具有理论意义,因为它们可以为群体凝聚力和团队绩效的动力学增加预测价值。本研究考察了实验条件:团队规模、任务难度、时间压力(被试间)和后续实验阶段(被试内)之间的四向关系。在此之前,我们已经证明了这些条件会影响个人和团队对工作负荷的主观评分,以及团队绩效。在一项涉及紧急反应(ER)模拟的实验中,360名佩戴皮肤电传感器的大学生被分成44个不同规模的小组。根据团队规模(三个、四个、七个或八个成员)、对手数量(一个或两个)和时间压力,实验性地改变了工作量;后者迟早会在两次实验中被引入。结果表明,实验条件影响同步水平,无论是在会话开始时还是在会话中间;同步性和实验条件与团队绩效无直接关系。任务的协调需求的主观小组工作量评级与会议开始时的同步性相关,而团队满意度与会议结束时的更大同步性相关。与严格的合作任务相比,ER任务的竞争性质可能导致这些经验关系的复杂性。
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引用次数: 0
Co-Adaptation Processes of Syntactic Complexity in Real-Time Kindergarten Teacher-Student Interactions. 幼儿园师生实时互动中句法复杂性的协同适应过程
IF 0.9 4区 心理学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-04-01
Astrid Menninga, Marijn van Dijk, Ralf Cox, Henderien Steenbeek, Paul van Geert

Under the premise that language learning is bidirectional in nature, this study aimed to investigate syntactic coordination within teacher-student interactions by using cross-recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA). Seven teachers' and a group of their students' interactions were repeatedly measured in the course of an intervention in early science education. Results showed changes in the proportion of recurrent points; in case of simple sentences teachers and students became less coordinated over time, whereas in case of complex sentences teachers and students showed increasing coordination. Results also revealed less rigid (more flexible) syntactic coordination, although there were no changes in the relative contribution of teacher and students to this. In the light of the intervention under investigation this is an important result. This means that teachers and students learn to use more complex language and coordinate their language complexity better in order to co-construct science discourse. The application of CRQA provides new insights and contributes to better understanding of the dynamics of syntactic coordination.

在语言学习具有双向性的前提下,本研究旨在通过交叉递归量化分析(cross- recurrent quantification analysis, CRQA)研究师生互动中的句法协调。在早期科学教育的干预过程中,反复测量了七名教师和一组学生的互动。结果显示:复发点比例的变化;在简单句中,随着时间的推移,教师和学生的协调性越来越差,而在复杂句中,教师和学生的协调性越来越高。结果还显示,尽管教师和学生在这方面的相对贡献没有变化,但刚性(更灵活)的句法协调程度有所降低。鉴于正在调查的干预措施,这是一个重要的结果。这意味着教师和学生学习使用更复杂的语言,并更好地协调他们的语言复杂性,以共同构建科学话语。CRQA的应用提供了新的见解,有助于更好地理解句法协调的动态。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling a Fast-Slow Bitrophic Food Chain with Harvesting. 用收割模拟快-慢双营养食物链。
IF 0.9 4区 心理学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-04-01
S M Salman

In the present paper, the Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model (RM), which is a bitrophic food chain model, is considered. We develop the model by adding two assumptions. First, we assume that both species are of economic interest, that is can be harvested. Second, we assume that each specie has its own time scale which range from fast for the prey to slow for the predator. We consider that both the death rate and the catch of the predator are very small which leads to a fast-slow dynamical system. That is, the RM model is transformed into a singular perturbed system with a perturbation parameter E in the set [0,1]. The existence and stability of equilibria are discussed for E > 0. The model experiences both transcritical and Hopf bifurcations for E>0. The singular perturbation model at E = 0 is discussed by separating the system into two subsystems; fast and slow and studying them simultaneously. When 0

本文考虑了双营养食物链模型Rosenzweig-MacArthur捕食-食饵模型(RM)。我们通过添加两个假设来发展这个模型。首先,我们假设这两种物种都具有经济利益,即可以收获。其次,我们假设每个物种都有自己的时间尺度,从猎物的快到捕食者的慢。我们认为捕食者的死亡率和捕获量都很小,这导致了一个快慢的动力系统。即将RM模型转化为集[0,1]中扰动参数为E的奇异摄动系统。讨论了E > 0时平衡点的存在性和稳定性。当E>0时,模型经历了跨临界和Hopf分岔。将系统分为两个子系统,讨论了E = 0处的奇异摄动模型;快,慢,同时学习。当0
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引用次数: 0
Embodied Synchronization and Complexity in a Verbal Interaction. 言语互动中的具身同步与复杂性。
IF 0.9 4区 心理学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-04-01
R C Schmidt, Paula Fitzpatrick

Previous research has found that spontaneous synchronization of bodily movements emerges when people interact. This dynamic interactional synchrony occurs in all kinds of everyday movements and has been demonstrated empirically in a variety of social contexts. The objective of this study is to advance our understanding of the dynamical processes that enable the spontaneous and fluid coordination of movements in more naturalistic social interactions. We measured the degree of interactional synchrony of 44 dyads who enacted a series of knock-knock jokes together and we manipulated the perceptual information available (using auditory occlusion) and the individuals' dynamical motor 'signatures' by weighting their limbs. Our analyses using relative phase and fractal/multifractal measures support the conclusion that both local and global dynamical synchronization processes sustain the interactional fluidity seen in conversational exchanges and provide an embodied foundation for how humans connect and cooperate socially.

先前的研究发现,当人们互动时,身体动作会自发同步。这种动态的互动同步发生在各种日常运动中,并已在各种社会环境中得到实证证明。本研究的目的是促进我们对动态过程的理解,使运动在更自然的社会互动中自发和流畅的协调成为可能。我们测量了44对二人组的互动同步程度,这些二人组一起玩了一系列的敲门声笑话,我们操纵了可用的感知信息(使用听觉阻断)和个体的动态运动“特征”,通过加权他们的四肢。我们使用相对相位和分形/多重分形测量的分析支持这样的结论:局部和全局动态同步过程维持了对话交流中的互动流动性,并为人类如何联系和社会合作提供了具体的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Warning Signs of Impending Critical Transitions in Love Affairs. 爱情中即将发生关键转变的警告信号。
IF 0.9 4区 心理学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-04-01
Sergio Rinaldi, Fabio Della Rossa

Psychoanalysts and therapists have noticed that the increase of the reconciliation time, i.e., the period of dissatisfaction that two lovers need to return to their positive equilibrium after a dispute, is often a warning sign of an impending consistent drop of quality of the relationship, possibly followed by a breakup (e.g., a divorce). Here this rule is investigated and shown to be the logical consequence of the attitude of individuals (here called secure) who increase their reaction when their partners get more involved. The analysis is carried out with a well-known and repeatedly validated mathematical model composed of two nonlinear differential equations and the rule follows from the discovery that the model has catastrophic bifurcations with respect to the psychophysical traits of the partners. Thus, for example, negative trends in the appeal of the partners or in the reactiveness to it slowly but inevitably push couples toward a tipping point, from which a critical transition can originate. Since the rule is here justified only for couples composed of secure individuals, finding out if it holds also for other couples remains an interesting open problem.

精神分析学家和治疗师已经注意到,和解时间的增加,即两个恋人在争吵后需要回到积极平衡的不满时期,通常是关系质量即将持续下降的警告信号,可能随之而来的是分手(例如,离婚)。在这里,这条规则被调查并被证明是个人(这里称为安全)态度的逻辑结果,当他们的伴侣更多地参与时,他们的反应会增加。该分析是用一个由两个非线性微分方程组成的著名且反复验证的数学模型进行的,该规律来自于该模型在伴侣的心理物理特征方面具有灾难性的分岔。因此,例如,伴侣的吸引力或对它的反应的负面趋势缓慢但不可避免地将夫妻推向一个临界点,从这个临界点可以产生一个关键的转变。由于该规则仅适用于由安全个体组成的夫妻,因此找出它是否也适用于其他夫妻仍然是一个有趣的开放问题。
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引用次数: 0
Theories for Computing Prosocial Behavior. 计算亲社会行为的理论。
IF 0.9 4区 心理学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-04-01
Arianna Costantini, Andrea Scalco, Riccardo Sartori, Elena M Tur, Andrea Ceschi

Most relevant theories of prosocial behavior aim at exploring and understanding helping motivations from an evolutionary perspective. This article summarizes findings from research on prosocial behavior from both a socio-economic and psychological perspective. Building on literature exploring the basic processes and determinant variables of helping, we propose a stochastic and dynamic model to simulate prosocial behaviors over time and recreate evolutionary processes of helping behaviors. Such a mathematical model formalizes a procedure for dynamic simulations, including agent-based modeling, which implies non-linear dynamics of prosocial processes underlying helping motivations. Practical implications for organizations and societies are addressed.

大多数相关的亲社会行为理论旨在从进化的角度探索和理解帮助动机。本文从社会经济和心理学两个角度综述了亲社会行为的研究成果。在探索助人基本过程和决定变量的文献基础上,我们提出了一个随机动态模型来模拟助人行为随时间的变化,并重建助人行为的进化过程。这样的数学模型形式化了动态模拟的过程,包括基于主体的建模,这意味着帮助动机背后的亲社会过程的非线性动力学。讨论了对组织和社会的实际影响。
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引用次数: 0
Agent-Based Modeling of Day-to-Day Intimate Partner Violence. 基于主体的日常亲密伴侣暴力模型。
IF 0.9 4区 心理学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-04-01
David Katerndahl, Sandra Burge, Robert Ferrer, Johanna Becho, Robert Wood, Maria D M Villacampa

The purpose of this study was to develop a mathematical model of mutual partner violence and assess impact of her controllable behaviors on reducing violence. An agent-based model was created of couples with history of violence based upon results of two multiple time series studies of partner violence. To explore factors that may alter model results, eight continuous variable parameters were created based upon significant (p=.05) but discrepant (opposite directions) results from previous studies. To assess the potential impact that random stress and her behavior (arguments, forgiveness, alcohol use, violence) could have on violence and stalking, the impact of variable parameter settings of these factors were also assessed. The model identified 18 unique patterns were observed, grouped into five general categories. Added random stress contributed to his violence in only two patterns. Although avoiding participation in arguments had no effect, her forgiveness and elimination of alcohol use often reduced her violence only. However, consistent violence or nonviolence on her part sometimes affected his violence and stalking. In conclusion, while increasing forgiveness and reducing alcohol intake could reduce her violence, they generally had little effect on his. However, if she eliminated her violence, it could eliminate his violence and stalking in some situations.

本研究的目的是建立一个相互伴侣暴力的数学模型,并评估她的可控行为对减少暴力的影响。基于对伴侣暴力的两个多时间序列研究的结果,建立了一个基于主体的有暴力史的夫妇模型。为了探索可能改变模型结果的因素,基于先前研究中显著(p= 0.05)但差异(相反方向)的结果,创建了八个连续变量参数。为了评估随机压力和她的行为(争吵、宽恕、酒精使用、暴力)可能对暴力和跟踪产生的潜在影响,还评估了这些因素的可变参数设置的影响。该模型确定了观察到的18种独特模式,分为五大类。额外的随机压力导致他的暴力行为只有两种模式。虽然避免参与争论没有效果,但她的宽恕和戒酒往往只会减少她的暴力行为。然而,她一贯的暴力或非暴力有时会影响他的暴力和跟踪。总之,虽然增加宽恕和减少酒精摄入量可以减少她的暴力,但它们对他的暴力几乎没有影响。然而,如果她消除了自己的暴力行为,在某些情况下也可以消除他的暴力和跟踪行为。
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引用次数: 0
Clinical Psychology at the Crossroads: An Introduction to the Special Issue on Nonlinear Dynamical Systems. 十字路口的临床心理学:介绍非线性动力系统特刊。
IF 0.9 4区 心理学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2019-01-01
David Pincus

This introduction to a special issue of Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology and Life Sciences discusses the contributing articles within the issue from a variety of perspectives. This analysis examines each article's contribution to understanding the self, and to exploring the application of innovative nonlinear methods to clinical questions. Moving beyond the special issue, the analysis examines the role of nonlinear science in clinical psychology from the perspective of Aristotle's four types of cause: material, efficient, formal and teleological. It is suggested that nonlinear science is particularly well-suited to empirical science aimed at understanding formal (i.e., systemic), and teleological (dynamical) causes. The strength of nonlinear dynamical systems methods in addressing formal and teleological cause could help bridge the gaps in understanding clinical phenomena using the medical model, which focuses primarily on material and efficient causes. Finally, a list of the top ten nonlinear dynamical systems concepts is presented with the goal of direct applications that may be useful for clinicians.

这是《非线性动力学、心理学和生命科学》特刊的导论,从不同的角度讨论了本期的投稿文章。本分析考察了每篇文章对理解自我的贡献,并探索了创新的非线性方法在临床问题中的应用。超越了这个特殊问题,分析从亚里士多德的四种原因的角度审视了非线性科学在临床心理学中的作用:物质的、有效的、形式的和目的论的。有人建议,非线性科学特别适合于旨在理解形式(即系统)和目的论(动态)原因的经验科学。非线性动力系统方法在解决形式和目的原因方面的优势可以帮助弥合使用医学模型理解临床现象的差距,医学模型主要关注物质和有效原因。最后,列出了十大非线性动力系统概念,目的是为临床医生提供直接应用。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Nonlinear Dynamics Psychology and Life Sciences
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