Abstract:This article makes the case for the importance of studying incumbency advantages in a developing democracy. Incumbency advantages are a well-known institutional feature of electoral systems in consolidated democracies, and indirectly provide a test of democratic accountability. With free and fair elections, incumbency advantage should attenuate when governments underperform. Our research tests whether this is the case in a newer democracy such as Indonesia. Specifically, we study local voting for district heads and city mayors in the 2015 Indonesian elections. We find that incumbents win a majority of the time when they run, but their re-election rates are lower than witnessed in many well-established democracies. While term limits and strategic political arrangements are an important aspect of incumbent politician turnover in Indonesia, our findings suggest that something akin to democratic accountability is also likely taking place. In addition, we find that incumbent local leaders with a stronger parochial focus, measured as spending in their district, fare better at the ballot box.
{"title":"Testing for Incumbency Advantages in a Developing Democracy: Elections for Local Government Leaders in Indonesia","authors":"Testriono, Scot Schraufnagel","doi":"10.1355/cs42-2c","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs42-2c","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This article makes the case for the importance of studying incumbency advantages in a developing democracy. Incumbency advantages are a well-known institutional feature of electoral systems in consolidated democracies, and indirectly provide a test of democratic accountability. With free and fair elections, incumbency advantage should attenuate when governments underperform. Our research tests whether this is the case in a newer democracy such as Indonesia. Specifically, we study local voting for district heads and city mayors in the 2015 Indonesian elections. We find that incumbents win a majority of the time when they run, but their re-election rates are lower than witnessed in many well-established democracies. While term limits and strategic political arrangements are an important aspect of incumbent politician turnover in Indonesia, our findings suggest that something akin to democratic accountability is also likely taking place. In addition, we find that incumbent local leaders with a stronger parochial focus, measured as spending in their district, fare better at the ballot box.","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"137 1","pages":"200 - 223"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86284181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Human Rights and Participatory Politics in Southeast Asia.","authors":"S. Petcharamesree","doi":"10.1355/cs42-2i","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs42-2i","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"14 1","pages":"308-310"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78212912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Conflict, Identity, and State Formation in East Timor 2000–2017 by James Scambary (review)","authors":"M. Johnston","doi":"10.1355/cs42-2h","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs42-2h","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"8 1","pages":"305 - 307"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76070813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Deer and the Dragon: Southeast Asia and China in the 21st Century","authors":"D. Emmerson","doi":"10.1355/cs42-3e","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs42-3e","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42206241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Public opinion polling plays a prominent role in Indonesian politics, but as the country grapples with democratic backsliding and post-truth politics, pollsters have faced serious challenges in their endeavour to enhance responsiveness, representation and accountability. This article analyses how the Indonesian polling industry has responded to these challenges since the 2014 presidential elections. It argues that Indonesia's most reputable pollsters have made important contributions to upholding the integrity of Indonesia's electoral regime due to increased transparency and new initiatives to improve media coverage of polling. At the same time, however, democratic responsiveness seems to have declined rather than improved despite an ever-growing number of public opinion surveys, while fragmentation and politicization within the polling industry have exacerbated some of the pathologies of contemporary Indonesian politics, including the explosion of electoral campaign costs and deepening polarization.
{"title":"Public Opinion Polling and Post-truth Politics in Indonesia","authors":"D. Tomsa","doi":"10.1355/cs42-1a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs42-1a","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Public opinion polling plays a prominent role in Indonesian politics, but as the country grapples with democratic backsliding and post-truth politics, pollsters have faced serious challenges in their endeavour to enhance responsiveness, representation and accountability. This article analyses how the Indonesian polling industry has responded to these challenges since the 2014 presidential elections. It argues that Indonesia's most reputable pollsters have made important contributions to upholding the integrity of Indonesia's electoral regime due to increased transparency and new initiatives to improve media coverage of polling. At the same time, however, democratic responsiveness seems to have declined rather than improved despite an ever-growing number of public opinion surveys, while fragmentation and politicization within the polling industry have exacerbated some of the pathologies of contemporary Indonesian politics, including the explosion of electoral campaign costs and deepening polarization.","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"1 1","pages":"1 - 27"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91252520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:This article explores the ecological footprint of Chinese overseas investment in the Mekong region's hydropower sector, and examines how Chinese dam developers can be compelled into responding to mounting external pressure and adopting policies that resonate more with responsible investment norms. It argues that an important dynamic has been the development of transnational advocacy networks within the region's evolving public sphere. Working to renegotiate the parameters of socially acceptable conduct, civil society actors and their partners have been at the forefront of challenging the traditional development paradigm adhered to by governments in the Mekong region, effectively casting a critical light on the adverse impacts of Chinese-backed infrastructure schemes. Here, campaigns spearheaded by local and international NGOs have proved crucial to raising public awareness, as well as to sensitizing the Chinese government and its state-owned enterprises to their environmental and social responsibilities within a contested political space.
{"title":"China and the Accountability Politics of Hydropower Development: How Effective are Transnational Advocacy Networks in the Mekong Region?","authors":"Pichamon Yeophantong","doi":"10.1355/cs42-1d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs42-1d","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This article explores the ecological footprint of Chinese overseas investment in the Mekong region's hydropower sector, and examines how Chinese dam developers can be compelled into responding to mounting external pressure and adopting policies that resonate more with responsible investment norms. It argues that an important dynamic has been the development of transnational advocacy networks within the region's evolving public sphere. Working to renegotiate the parameters of socially acceptable conduct, civil society actors and their partners have been at the forefront of challenging the traditional development paradigm adhered to by governments in the Mekong region, effectively casting a critical light on the adverse impacts of Chinese-backed infrastructure schemes. Here, campaigns spearheaded by local and international NGOs have proved crucial to raising public awareness, as well as to sensitizing the Chinese government and its state-owned enterprises to their environmental and social responsibilities within a contested political space.","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"65 1","pages":"117 - 85"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90530255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:In much of the scholarly literature, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the largest Muslim organization in Indonesia, is recognized as a defender of religious tolerance and pluralism. This is to no small extent the result of how NU has portrayed itself and its actions—including during the 2019 presidential elections, when it professed to have aligned with incumbent president Joko Widodo in order to keep Islamist groups from power. In this article, we analyse the attitudes of NU followers towards religious tolerance and pluralism, and find a significant mismatch between the self-perception of the NU leadership and the actual views held by the NU grassroots. Based on original survey data, we show that NU followers are generally as intolerant of religious minorities as the rest of the Indonesian Muslim population, and in some cases, even more intolerant. We argue that this is the result of NU's long-standing prioritization of battling rival Muslim organizations (which it views as threats to its interests) over advancing substantive tolerance campaigns that could change the religio-political attitudes of its constituency.
{"title":"The Myth of Pluralism: Nahdlatul Ulama and the Politics of Religious Tolerance in Indonesia","authors":"M. Mietzner, Burhanuddin Muhtadi","doi":"10.1355/cs42-1c","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs42-1c","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:In much of the scholarly literature, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the largest Muslim organization in Indonesia, is recognized as a defender of religious tolerance and pluralism. This is to no small extent the result of how NU has portrayed itself and its actions—including during the 2019 presidential elections, when it professed to have aligned with incumbent president Joko Widodo in order to keep Islamist groups from power. In this article, we analyse the attitudes of NU followers towards religious tolerance and pluralism, and find a significant mismatch between the self-perception of the NU leadership and the actual views held by the NU grassroots. Based on original survey data, we show that NU followers are generally as intolerant of religious minorities as the rest of the Indonesian Muslim population, and in some cases, even more intolerant. We argue that this is the result of NU's long-standing prioritization of battling rival Muslim organizations (which it views as threats to its interests) over advancing substantive tolerance campaigns that could change the religio-political attitudes of its constituency.","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"31 1","pages":"58 - 84"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77054086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"BOOK REVIEW: Grey and White Hulls: An International Analysis of the Navy-Coastguard Nexus, edited by Ian Bowers and Swee Lean Collin Koh","authors":"Christian Bueger","doi":"10.1355/cs42-1i","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs42-1i","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"102 2","pages":"132-134"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72490328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"BOOK REVIEW: Strong Patronage, Weak Parties: The Case for Electoral System Redesign in the Philippine. edited by Paul D. Hutchcroft","authors":"A. Arugay","doi":"10.1355/cs42-1e","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs42-1e","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"71 1","pages":"118-121"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81028755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:In Malaysia, ethnicity is the primary social cleavage around which politics is articulated, organized and contested. Yet, extant scholarship also suggests urbanization as an important secondary cleavage driving political conflict. Urban voters are perceived to be more politically engaged and active, and politically more liberal, as compared to their rural counterparts. They are therefore more likely to vote for political parties opposed to the Barisan Nasional. But is there really an urban-rural dichotomy in Malaysia? This article contends that the existing literature regarding urbanization's effect on political attitudes and voting behaviour in Malaysia is fraught with theoretical, methodological and empirical challenges. Furthermore, survey data from three waves of the Asian Barometer suggests that differences with regards to political attitudes between urban and rural Malaysians diminish substantially or contradict theoretical expectations when other demographic variables are controlled for. These results suggest that scholars of Malaysian politics should be wary of findings that exaggerate urban-rural differences. Perpetuating the stereotype misleads future research, entrenches political polarization and deepens the potential for social conflict.
{"title":"Urban versus Rural Voters in Malaysia: More Similarities than Differences","authors":"Elvin Ong","doi":"10.1355/cs42-1b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs42-1b","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:In Malaysia, ethnicity is the primary social cleavage around which politics is articulated, organized and contested. Yet, extant scholarship also suggests urbanization as an important secondary cleavage driving political conflict. Urban voters are perceived to be more politically engaged and active, and politically more liberal, as compared to their rural counterparts. They are therefore more likely to vote for political parties opposed to the Barisan Nasional. But is there really an urban-rural dichotomy in Malaysia? This article contends that the existing literature regarding urbanization's effect on political attitudes and voting behaviour in Malaysia is fraught with theoretical, methodological and empirical challenges. Furthermore, survey data from three waves of the Asian Barometer suggests that differences with regards to political attitudes between urban and rural Malaysians diminish substantially or contradict theoretical expectations when other demographic variables are controlled for. These results suggest that scholars of Malaysian politics should be wary of findings that exaggerate urban-rural differences. Perpetuating the stereotype misleads future research, entrenches political polarization and deepens the potential for social conflict.","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"23 1","pages":"28 - 57"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84098832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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