Holger Görg, Cecília Hornok, Catia Montagna, George E. Onwordi
Labor market reforms in the direction of “flexicurity” have been widely endorsed as a means to increase an economy's ability to adjust to negative shocks while offering adequate social safety nets. This paper empirically examines how such reforms influence employment's responsiveness to output fluctuations (employment–output elasticity). To address this question, we employ a single equation error correction model with policy interactions on a panel of OECD countries, which also incorporates the period of the Great Recession, and distinguish between passive and active labor market policy types. Flexicurity is represented by three policy measures: unemployment benefit generosity, the flexibility of hiring and firing rules, and spending on active labor market policies. We find that the effects of any single policy change are shaped by the broader existing policy mix within which it takes place. A hypothetical flexicurity reform towards the policy mix of Denmark, a well-known example of the flexicurity regime, is found to increase or leave unchanged countries' short-run employment–output elasticities, depending on the initial policy mix. These results are robust to accounting for a large set of additional labor market institutions.
{"title":"Employment to output elasticities and reforms towards flexicurity: Evidence from OECD countries","authors":"Holger Görg, Cecília Hornok, Catia Montagna, George E. Onwordi","doi":"10.1111/boer.12375","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12375","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Labor market reforms in the direction of “flexicurity” have been widely endorsed as a means to increase an economy's ability to adjust to negative shocks while offering adequate social safety nets. This paper empirically examines how such reforms influence employment's responsiveness to output fluctuations (employment–output elasticity). To address this question, we employ a single equation error correction model with policy interactions on a panel of OECD countries, which also incorporates the period of the Great Recession, and distinguish between passive and active labor market policy types. Flexicurity is represented by three policy measures: unemployment benefit generosity, the flexibility of hiring and firing rules, and spending on active labor market policies. We find that the effects of any single policy change are shaped by the broader existing policy mix within which it takes place. A hypothetical flexicurity reform towards the policy mix of Denmark, a well-known example of the flexicurity regime, is found to increase or leave unchanged countries' short-run employment–output elasticities, depending on the initial policy mix. These results are robust to accounting for a large set of additional labor market institutions.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 3","pages":"641-670"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12375","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50126624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Is the decision of firms to pursue social interest and promote social progress philanthropic or motivated by strategic reasons? Using a simple Spence–Dixit entry model game with homogeneous goods, this paper studies the possible anticompetitive effect of the adoption of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the form of “consumer friendliness” (i.e., firms’ attention to the welfare of consumers). It is shown that, when the market becomes contestable, the incumbent can select to adopt CSR to hamper to a greater extent the potential entrant, regardless of its choice to engage in CSR activities. In other words, CSR can become a strategic barrier to entry.
{"title":"Corporate social responsibility and market entry","authors":"Domenico Buccella, Michał Wojna","doi":"10.1111/boer.12374","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12374","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Is the decision of firms to pursue social interest and promote social progress philanthropic or motivated by strategic reasons? Using a simple Spence–Dixit entry model game with homogeneous goods, this paper studies the possible anticompetitive effect of the adoption of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the form of “consumer friendliness” (i.e., firms’ attention to the welfare of consumers). It is shown that, when the market becomes contestable, the incumbent can select to adopt CSR to hamper to a greater extent the potential entrant, regardless of its choice to engage in CSR activities. In other words, CSR can become a strategic barrier to entry.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 3","pages":"625-640"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47376462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The effects of reading habits on academic performances have been carefully investigated, but little is known about the effects of academic achievements on students’ leisure reading. This paper investigates this issue by estimating the effects of academic achievements, proxied by the number of exams passed, on leisure reading, measured by the number of leisure books read in a year. Using an online survey submitted to the students at the University of Bologna, Italy, we adopt a two-step control-function technique to control for endogeneity. The empirical evidence suggests the existence of a negative relationship between students’ academic achievements and the time devoted to leisure reading. This result holds for students of different fields of study and is stronger for male students. The Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition supports the existence of a gender-specific idiosyncratic effect.
{"title":"Good students, avid readers: The cost of academic success","authors":"Antonello E. Scorcu, Laura Vici, Roberto Zanola","doi":"10.1111/boer.12373","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12373","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The effects of reading habits on academic performances have been carefully investigated, but little is known about the effects of academic achievements on students’ leisure reading. This paper investigates this issue by estimating the effects of academic achievements, proxied by the number of exams passed, on leisure reading, measured by the number of leisure books read in a year. Using an online survey submitted to the students at the University of Bologna, Italy, we adopt a two-step control-function technique to control for endogeneity. The empirical evidence suggests the existence of a negative relationship between students’ academic achievements and the time devoted to leisure reading. This result holds for students of different fields of study and is stronger for male students. The Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition supports the existence of a gender-specific idiosyncratic effect.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 3","pages":"609-624"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12373","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42064464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Luiz Brotherhood, Bruno R. Delalibera, Luciene Torres de Mello Pereira
We study the trade-off between governmental investments in pretertiary and tertiary education from an efficiency point of view. We develop a model comprising agents with different incomes and abilities, public and private schools, and public universities that select applicants based on an admission exam. Reallocating governmental resources from tertiary to pretertiary education may positively affect aggregate production and human capital if some conditions are satisfied. For instance, in an economy with a high proportion of credit-constrained students, a reallocation of expenditure toward public schools benefits many students, compensating for the negative effect of a decrease in public university investments. We also quantitatively investigate the optimal allocation of public investment between pretertiary and tertiary education, and we find that a 10% increase in productivity of public investments in pretertiary education could increase the optimal GDP between 2.1% and 3%.
{"title":"Public overspending in higher education","authors":"Luiz Brotherhood, Bruno R. Delalibera, Luciene Torres de Mello Pereira","doi":"10.1111/boer.12372","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12372","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the trade-off between governmental investments in pretertiary and tertiary education from an efficiency point of view. We develop a model comprising agents with different incomes and abilities, public and private schools, and public universities that select applicants based on an admission exam. Reallocating governmental resources from tertiary to pretertiary education may positively affect aggregate production and human capital if some conditions are satisfied. For instance, in an economy with a high proportion of credit-constrained students, a reallocation of expenditure toward public schools benefits many students, compensating for the negative effect of a decrease in public university investments. We also quantitatively investigate the optimal allocation of public investment between pretertiary and tertiary education, and we find that a 10% increase in productivity of public investments in pretertiary education could increase the optimal GDP between 2.1% and 3%.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 3","pages":"588-608"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12372","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47514826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fatih Ayhan, Mustafa Tevfik Kartal, Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, Derviş Kirikkaleli
This study examines the linkage between economic risk and political risk in the United Kingdom. This linkage has attracted the attention of policymakers; however, there is no consequence of the linkage in the existing literature. The study aims to close this gap for the UK case by applying wavelet coherence (WTC) and quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) approaches and using quarterly data between 1984/Q1 and 2020/Q4. The results of the WTC reveal that there is time–frequency dependency between economic risk and political risk majorly in the medium and low frequencies. Moreover, the direction of the causality changes over time. Furthermore, the outcomes of the WTC show that economic risk leads political risk between 1995 and 2005, whereas political risk leads economic risk from 2006 to 2019. The outcomes of the QQR approach disclose that in the higher tail (0.7–0.95) of political risk and lower and medium tail (0.05–0.60) of economic risk, the effect of political risk on economic risk is positive and strong. On the flip side, at all quantiles (0.05–0.95) of economic risk and lower quantiles (0.10–0.30) of political risk, the effect of political risk on economic risk is positive and strong. The results are also validated by the outcomes of partial wavelet coherence, multiple wavelet coherence, and quantile regression. Hence, the results highlight the importance of political risk (economic risk) for economic risk (political risk) in the UK case.
{"title":"Nexus between economic risk and political risk in the United Kingdom: Evidence from wavelet coherence and quantile-on-quantile approaches","authors":"Fatih Ayhan, Mustafa Tevfik Kartal, Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, Derviş Kirikkaleli","doi":"10.1111/boer.12371","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12371","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the linkage between economic risk and political risk in the United Kingdom. This linkage has attracted the attention of policymakers; however, there is no consequence of the linkage in the existing literature. The study aims to close this gap for the UK case by applying wavelet coherence (WTC) and quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) approaches and using quarterly data between 1984/Q1 and 2020/Q4. The results of the WTC reveal that there is time–frequency dependency between economic risk and political risk majorly in the medium and low frequencies. Moreover, the direction of the causality changes over time. Furthermore, the outcomes of the WTC show that economic risk leads political risk between 1995 and 2005, whereas political risk leads economic risk from 2006 to 2019. The outcomes of the QQR approach disclose that in the higher tail (0.7–0.95) of political risk and lower and medium tail (0.05–0.60) of economic risk, the effect of political risk on economic risk is positive and strong. On the flip side, at all quantiles (0.05–0.95) of economic risk and lower quantiles (0.10–0.30) of political risk, the effect of political risk on economic risk is positive and strong. The results are also validated by the outcomes of partial wavelet coherence, multiple wavelet coherence, and quantile regression. Hence, the results highlight the importance of political risk (economic risk) for economic risk (political risk) in the UK case.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 3","pages":"571-587"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43322384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Merger control impacts the type of merger projects that are submitted, as well as the information provided by the merging parties upon assessment. In this paper, we consider the outcomes in terms of selection of merger types and evidence provision of alternative timings for merger review, pre- or postconsummation of the merger. We show that the selection effect induced by the ex post merger review is welfare-improving due to the deterrence of the most anticompetitive merger projects. In contrast, the welfare impact of evidence provision under ex post assessment is ambiguous. Balancing these two effects makes possible the welfare comparison between the ex ante and the ex post merger policy enforcement.
{"title":"Merger selection, evidence provision, and the timing of merger control","authors":"Andreea Cosnita-Langlais, Jean-Philippe Tropeano","doi":"10.1111/boer.12365","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12365","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Merger control impacts the type of merger projects that are submitted, as well as the information provided by the merging parties upon assessment. In this paper, we consider the outcomes in terms of selection of merger types and evidence provision of alternative timings for merger review, pre- or postconsummation of the merger. We show that the selection effect induced by the ex post merger review is welfare-improving due to the deterrence of the most anticompetitive merger projects. In contrast, the welfare impact of evidence provision under ex post assessment is ambiguous. Balancing these two effects makes possible the welfare comparison between the ex ante and the ex post merger policy enforcement.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 1","pages":"209-222"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44198167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate whether oaths can enforce property rights in a social dilemma and increase welfare. We examine the impact of mandatory and voluntary oaths in a laboratory experiment where individuals can produce wealth, protect accumulated wealth, and take wealth from others. Individuals are more productive when oaths are mandatory compared to a no-oath environment. Subjects’ voluntary signing oaths behave similarly to those who sign a mandatory oath. When the oath is voluntary, nonoath-taking individuals engage in nonproductive behavior, negating the positive impact from the voluntary oath. Our results show that altering commitment mechanisms can result in varying welfare levels.
{"title":"Do voluntary commitment mechanisms improve welfare? The effect of mandatory and voluntary oaths in a social dilemma","authors":"Brent J. Davis, Tarek Jaber-Lopez","doi":"10.1111/boer.12369","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12369","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate whether oaths can enforce property rights in a social dilemma and increase welfare. We examine the impact of mandatory and voluntary oaths in a laboratory experiment where individuals can produce wealth, protect accumulated wealth, and take wealth from others. Individuals are more productive when oaths are mandatory compared to a no-oath environment. Subjects’ voluntary signing oaths behave similarly to those who sign a mandatory oath. When the oath is voluntary, nonoath-taking individuals engage in nonproductive behavior, negating the positive impact from the voluntary oath. Our results show that altering commitment mechanisms can result in varying welfare levels.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 2","pages":"525-540"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12369","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45219754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study provides evidence of the triangular relationship between governance quality, foreign direct investment, and economic growth. Unlike previous studies in the governance—foreign direct investment—growth literature, this study employed the panel vector autoregressive model to examine the impact of governance quality and foreign direct investment on economic growth. Moreover, we used the impulse response function tool, which was developed in the same context, to better understand the reaction of the two main variables of interest, foreign direct investment, and economic growth, after shocks to the governance quality variable. Finally, the analysis was completed by the variance decomposition of all variables. These analyses were conducted for 102 developing countries from 1996 to 2014. Overall, the results show that inward foreign direct investment has a significant impact and can strongly encourage economic growth. These results indicate that the quality of governance in developing countries does not affect foreign direct investment and economic growth.
{"title":"FDI inflows, economic growth, and governance quality trilogy in developing countries: A panel VAR analysis","authors":"Yosra Saidi, Anis Ochi, Samir Maktouf","doi":"10.1111/boer.12364","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12364","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study provides evidence of the triangular relationship between governance quality, foreign direct investment, and economic growth. Unlike previous studies in the governance—foreign direct investment—growth literature, this study employed the panel vector autoregressive model to examine the impact of governance quality and foreign direct investment on economic growth. Moreover, we used the impulse response function tool, which was developed in the same context, to better understand the reaction of the two main variables of interest, foreign direct investment, and economic growth, after shocks to the governance quality variable. Finally, the analysis was completed by the variance decomposition of all variables. These analyses were conducted for 102 developing countries from 1996 to 2014. Overall, the results show that inward foreign direct investment has a significant impact and can strongly encourage economic growth. These results indicate that the quality of governance in developing countries does not affect foreign direct investment and economic growth.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 2","pages":"426-449"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42453432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pramod C. Mane, Nagarajan Krishnamurthy, Kapil Ahuja
Social cloud has emerged as a case of sharing economy, where socially connected agents share their computing resources within the community. This paper considers the social cloud as an endogenous resource-sharing network, where agents are involved in closeness-based conditional resource sharing. This study focuses on (1) the impact of agents' decisions of link addition and deletion on their own local and global resource availability as well as on others' global resource availability (as spillover effects), (2) the role of agents' closeness in determining spillover effects, (3) agents' link addition behavior, and (4) stability and efficiency of the social cloud. The findings include the following: (i) Agents' decision of link addition (deletion) increases (decreases) their local resource availability. However, these observations do not hold in the case of global resource availability. (ii) In a connected network, agents experience either a positive or a negative spillover effect and there is no case with no spillover effects. Agents observe no spillover effects if and only if the network is disconnected with three or more components. Furthermore, an agent experiences negative spillover if there is no change in its closeness. Although an increase in the closeness of agents is necessary to experience positive spillover effects, the condition is not sufficient. (iii) We study the relation between agents' distance from each other, and their local as well as global resource availabilities. We prove that the local resource availability of an agent from another agent increases with decrease in the distance between them and that maximum local resource availability is obtained from the agent with the least closeness. Using these results, we discuss which agent to add a link to, so as to maximize the local resource availability. We discuss why such results are difficult to establish for global resource availability. However, in a two-diameter network, we show that for an agent, link formation always increases the global resource availability. (iv) We also study resource-sharing network formation and its efficiency in a strategic setting. We prove the existence of a pairwise stable network. Furthermore, we provide a set of conditions for a few prominent network structures (star, complete, wheel, and bipartite networks) to be pairwise stable. We show that the “connected in pairs, otherwise disconnected” network is better than a connected network, in terms of social welfare.
{"title":"Resource availability in the social cloud: An economics perspective","authors":"Pramod C. Mane, Nagarajan Krishnamurthy, Kapil Ahuja","doi":"10.1111/boer.12370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12370","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Social cloud has emerged as a case of sharing economy, where socially connected agents share their computing resources within the community. This paper considers the social cloud as an endogenous resource-sharing network, where agents are involved in closeness-based conditional resource sharing. This study focuses on (1) the impact of agents' decisions of link addition and deletion on their own local and global resource availability as well as on others' global resource availability (as spillover effects), (2) the role of agents' closeness in determining spillover effects, (3) agents' link addition behavior, and (4) stability and efficiency of the social cloud. The findings include the following: (i) Agents' decision of link addition (deletion) increases (decreases) their local resource availability. However, these observations do not hold in the case of global resource availability. (ii) In a connected network, agents experience either a positive or a negative spillover effect and there is no case with no spillover effects. Agents observe no spillover effects if and only if the network is disconnected with three or more components. Furthermore, an agent experiences negative spillover if there is no change in its closeness. Although an increase in the closeness of agents is necessary to experience positive spillover effects, the condition is not sufficient. (iii) We study the relation between agents' distance from each other, and their local as well as global resource availabilities. We prove that the local resource availability of an agent from another agent increases with decrease in the distance between them and that maximum local resource availability is obtained from the agent with the least closeness. Using these results, we discuss which agent to add a link to, so as to maximize the local resource availability. We discuss why such results are difficult to establish for global resource availability. However, in a two-diameter network, we show that for an agent, link formation always increases the global resource availability. (iv) We also study resource-sharing network formation and its efficiency in a strategic setting. We prove the existence of a pairwise stable network. Furthermore, we provide a set of conditions for a few prominent network structures (star, complete, wheel, and bipartite networks) to be pairwise stable. We show that the “connected in pairs, otherwise disconnected” network is better than a connected network, in terms of social welfare.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 2","pages":"541-566"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50141081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use quasi-experimental expansion of publicly funded childcare slots for children under the age of three from Germany and exploit regional variations of this large-scale expansion to account for endogenous and selective fertility decisions. To account for left and right censoring, we implement this quasi-experimental framework into the setting of the semiparametric Cox hazard model. By using spatial data on childcare provision at the level of counties and microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) from 1998 to 2012, we find a significant increase in the transition probability to first birth by 11.9% for native childless couples who were in the labor force before childbearing. With regard to transition to the second birth, however, no significant effect is found from the increase in childcare slots. With a particular focus on the transition to first birth, the effects are demonstrated not to be driven by selective residency choices and internal migration patterns. Furthermore, a large set of robustness checks is applied to show that highly educated mothers react the most, while effects are not attributable to the upper decile of income distribution.
{"title":"The expansion of early childcare and transitions to first and second birth in Germany","authors":"Eric Schuss, Mohammed Azaouagh","doi":"10.1111/boer.12367","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12367","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We use quasi-experimental expansion of publicly funded childcare slots for children under the age of three from Germany and exploit regional variations of this large-scale expansion to account for endogenous and selective fertility decisions. To account for left and right censoring, we implement this quasi-experimental framework into the setting of the semiparametric Cox hazard model. By using spatial data on childcare provision at the level of counties and microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) from 1998 to 2012, we find a significant increase in the transition probability to first birth by 11.9% for native childless couples who were in the labor force before childbearing. With regard to transition to the second birth, however, no significant effect is found from the increase in childcare slots. With a particular focus on the transition to first birth, the effects are demonstrated not to be driven by selective residency choices and internal migration patterns. Furthermore, a large set of robustness checks is applied to show that highly educated mothers react the most, while effects are not attributable to the upper decile of income distribution.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 2","pages":"476-507"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12367","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46024785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}