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Decision-Making Under Risk in the Market for Illegal Drugs: A Supply-Side Analysis 非法药品市场风险下的决策:供给侧分析
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12475
Ardeshir J. Dalal, Sudhakar Raju

Most economic models of the illegal drugs market focus on demand-side behavior. However, in imperfectly competitive markets such as the illegal drugs market, it is the seller who determines price. Moreover, even models that focus on supply-side behavior often ignore key factors such as risk. This paper develops an expected utility model of a risk-averse seller. We find that under risk aversion, increasing punishment costs (i.e., severity) is more effective than increased enforcement (i.e., certainty) and demand reduction is more effective than interdiction. If risk neutrality is assumed, increases in severity and certainty have the same deterrent effect. Under risk neutrality, the deterrent effect of demand reduction policies dominates all other interdiction policies. These results lend theoretical reinforcement to the growing policy bias in favor of demand-side intervention.

非法药物市场的大多数经济模型都侧重于需求方行为。然而,在非法药物市场这样的不完全竞争市场中,价格是由卖方决定的。此外,即使是关注供应方行为的模型,也往往忽略了风险等关键因素。本文建立了一个风险规避卖方的预期效用模型。我们发现,在风险规避的情况下,增加惩罚成本(即严重程度)比增加执法力度(即确定性)更有效,而减少需求比禁止需求更有效。如果假设风险中性,那么增加严厉性和确定性具有相同的威慑效果。在风险中性的情况下,减少需求政策的威慑效果要优于所有其他拦截政策。这些结果从理论上强化了越来越倾向于需求方干预的政策倾向。
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引用次数: 0
Global Value Chain Linkages and Business Cycle Comovement: Evidence From Cross-Country Panel Data 全球价值链联系和商业周期同步:来自跨国面板数据的证据
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12478
Shujin Zhu, Zixuan Wang

We empirically investigate the impact of global value chain (GVC) linkages on business cycle comovement by using the cross-country panel data covering 43 developing and developed countries over the period 2000–2014 obtained from the World Input-Output Database 2016 Release (WIOD 2016). We find that GVC linkages have a positive impact on business cycle comovement. We also find that the impact of GVC linkages in final goods is larger than that of GVC linkages in advanced intermediate goods and then GVC linkages in basic intermediate goods, indicating the moderating effect of the production length. Moreover, the impact of GVC linkages on business cycle comovement between developing and developed countries is highly significant, implying that GVC linkages may narrow the growth gap between developing and developed countries. These findings suggest the importance of the GVC specialization, the South-North cooperation, and the international risk management.

我们利用从世界投入产出数据库 2016 年版(WIOD 2016)获得的 2000-2014 年间 43 个发展中国家和发达国家的跨国面板数据,实证研究了全球价值链(GVC)联系对商业周期相关性的影响。我们发现,全球价值链联系对商业周期相关性有积极影响。我们还发现,最终产品的全球价值链联系的影响大于高级中间产品的全球价值链联系的影响,然后是基本中间产品的全球价值链联系的影响,这表明了生产长度的调节作用。此外,全球价值链联系对发展中国家与发达国家之间商业周期相关性的影响非常显著,这意味着全球价值链联系可以缩小发展中国家与发达国家之间的增长差距。这些研究结果表明了全球价值链专业化、南北合作和国际风险管理的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting Türkiye Local Inflation With Global Factors 用全球因素预测<s:1> <s:1>地方通货膨胀
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12477
Oguzhan Cepni, Abdullah Kazdal, Muhammed Enes Olgun, Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz

This paper investigates whether inflation forecasting in emerging economies can be improved with the inclusion of a global inflation component. Focusing on the headline inflation rate of Türkiye, we implement a forecasting exercise using a large dataset describing domestic macroeconomic as well as global inflation dynamics. Our factor-augmented predictive regression results show that incorporating global inflation factors derived from other emerging markets' inflation rates enhances forecasting accuracy of the local headline inflation rate. The results are robust to using alternative dimension-reduction methods, including the elastic net technique. Our findings contribute to the current methodological toolkit available to policymakers for predicting inflation in an emerging market context.

本文研究了新兴经济体的通胀预测是否可以通过纳入全球通胀因素而得到改善。我们以土耳其的总体通胀率为重点,利用描述国内宏观经济和全球通胀动态的大型数据集进行了预测。我们的因子增强预测回归结果表明,纳入源自其他新兴市场通胀率的全球通胀因子可提高当地总体通胀率的预测准确性。使用其他降维方法(包括弹性网技术)也能得到稳健的结果。我们的研究结果为政策制定者预测新兴市场通货膨胀提供了一套方法论工具。
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引用次数: 0
Children's Personality and Its Contribution to School Grades Inequality: Evidence From Mexico 儿童个性及其对学校成绩不平等的影响:来自墨西哥的证据
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12484
Alfonso Miranda, Yahaira Rodríguez-Martínez, Yu Zhu

We explore the relationship between Big-5 Personality Traits and school grades, using a novel survey of state primary school children in Mexico. Linear school fixed-effects estimates controlling for household income, principal caregiver's education, IQ, and personality traits indicate that higher conscientiousness and agreeableness consistently and significantly correlate with high school performance in all subjects, net of child's IQ. A regression-based inequality decomposition shows that a child's personality accounts for 5.1% and 6.5% of the inequality in mathematics for girls and boys, whereas for Spanish, it accounts for 3.9% and 8.0%, respectively. Results are robust to unobservable confounders using Oster bounds.

本文通过对墨西哥公立小学儿童的调查,探讨了大五人格特质与学校成绩之间的关系。线性学校固定效应估计控制了家庭收入、主要照顾者的教育、智商和人格特征,表明较高的尽责性和亲和性与所有科目的高中表现一致且显著相关,净儿童智商。一项基于回归的不平等分解表明,孩子的个性在女孩和男孩的数学不平等中分别占5.1%和6.5%,而在西班牙语中,它分别占3.9%和8.0%。使用奥斯特界,结果对不可观察的混杂因素具有鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
Reserve Price (In)equivalence: Shill Bidding to Lower the Reserve Price 底价(In)对等:托儿出价以降低底价
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12480
Seungwon (Eugene) Jeong

The optimal reserve price of the third-price auction with two bidders differs from that with more than two bidders, whereas the optimal reserve price of the second-price auction is the same regardless of the number of bidders. We generalize this result to the kth-price multiunit auctions with single-unit demand, and introduce a new kind of shill-bidding incentive of bidders in order to lower the reserve price. Alongside budget constraints caused by overbidding, this may explain why third-price auctions are rare in practice.

两名竞标者的第三价拍卖与两名以上竞标者的最优底价不同,而无论竞标者人数多少,第二价拍卖的最优底价都是相同的。我们将这一结果推广到单单位需求的k价多单位拍卖中,并引入了一种新的竞价激励机制以降低底价。加上过高出价造成的预算限制,这或许可以解释为什么第三价拍卖在实践中很少见。
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引用次数: 0
FDI, defense spending, and economic prosperity 外国直接投资、国防开支和经济繁荣
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12473
Mohamed Douch

The relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and military spending in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is complex and multifaceted. High levels of military spending can deter foreign investors, as it creates an uncertain and potentially volatile investment climate. However, countries that invest in their military infrastructure and capabilities may be seen as more stable and secure, which can attract foreign investors. Taking into account several factors that can influence this relationship, including political stability, security concerns, and economic factors, this work analyzes whether military spending attracts foreign capital into the region. Using a dynamic panel data methodology along with other relevant macroeconomic variables, results show that the military expenditure has a positive and significant impact on FDI inflows into the MENA region. The paper highlights the fact that policymakers in the region must carefully balance military spending with investments in other areas of the economy in order to create a stable and favorable investment climate that attracts foreign investors and contributes to long-term economic growth and development achieving both security and welfare.

在中东和北非地区,外国直接投资(FDI)和军事开支之间的关系是复杂和多方面的。高水平的军事开支可能会阻止外国投资者,因为它会造成不确定和潜在的不稳定投资环境。然而,投资于军事基础设施和能力的国家可能被视为更稳定和安全,这可以吸引外国投资者。考虑到可能影响这种关系的几个因素,包括政治稳定、安全问题和经济因素,这项工作分析了军事开支是否吸引外国资本进入该地区。使用动态面板数据方法以及其他相关宏观经济变量,结果表明,军事开支对流入中东和北非地区的外国直接投资具有积极和重大的影响。该报告强调了一个事实,即该地区的决策者必须仔细平衡军事开支与其他经济领域的投资,以创造一个稳定和有利的投资环境,吸引外国投资者,并有助于实现安全和福利的长期经济增长和发展。
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引用次数: 0
On optimal betting strategies with multiple mutually exclusive outcomes 关于多重互斥结果的最佳投注策略
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12474
Karl Whelan

We examine the problem of how much risk-averse agents would be willing to bet on events where there are multiple possible winners but only one will actually win. We describe how this problem can be solved for concave utility functions and illustrate the properties of the solution. The optimal betting strategy is more aggressive than strategies derived from considering each outcome separately such as the Kelly criterion. The strategy also recommends sometimes placing bets with negative expected returns because they act as hedges against losses on other bets. While this strategy maximizes the bettor's subjective expected utility, if betting odds incorporate a profit margin and reflect underlying probabilities correctly, then this more aggressive approach loses more money and results in lower realized utility.

我们研究的问题是,在有多个可能的赢家但实际上只有一个会赢的情况下,规避风险的代理人愿意下多大的赌注。我们描述了如何解决凹效用函数问题,并说明了解决方案的特性。最佳投注策略比凯利准则等分别考虑每种结果得出的策略更为激进。该策略还建议有时下注预期收益为负的赌注,因为这些赌注可以对冲其他赌注的损失。虽然这种策略能使投注者的主观预期效用最大化,但如果投注赔率包含利润率并能正确反映基本概率,那么这种更激进的方法会损失更多资金,导致实现效用降低。
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引用次数: 0
Learning at university 大学学习
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12470
Gervas Huxley, Mike W. Peacey

Much of the economic literature on education models the process of acquiring human capital as a “black box.” While such models have many interesting uses, they are of little use when a student is considering how much teaching she needs and how her time at university is allocated between study and attending class. Considering such questions requires us to “open up” the black box. Our paper shows what one such model would look like by explicitly modeling how students choose to learn. We believe that this framework can inform the current debate about teaching in higher education.

许多关于教育的经济文献都将人力资本的获取过程视为一个 "黑箱"。虽然这种模型有许多有趣的用途,但当学生考虑她需要多少教学,以及如何在学习和上课之间分配她在大学的时间时,这些模型就没有什么用处了。考虑这些问题需要我们 "打开 "黑箱。我们的论文通过明确模拟学生如何选择学习,展示了这样一个模型。我们相信,这一框架可以为当前有关高等教育教学的讨论提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Household assets and business cycle fluctuations 家庭资产和商业周期波动
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-04 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12469
Shogo Miura

This paper shows that an increase in the ratio of household assets to gross domestic product (GDP) predicts higher GDP growth in the short term, but lower growth in the long term. It is also associated with lower consumption, investment, and employment rates in the future. The result is robust to controlling for various economic indicators including credit spreads, household debt to GDP ratio, and leverage ratio. Finally, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that an increase in the interest rate is associated with a decrease in the household assets to GDP ratio, in contrast to the findings of Galí and Gambetti (2015, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 233–257). This appears to support the conventional view of monetary policy.

本文表明,家庭资产与国内生产总值(GDP)之比的增加可预测短期内较高的 GDP 增长率,但长期增长率较低。它还与未来较低的消费、投资和就业率有关。这一结果在控制各种经济指标(包括信贷利差、家庭债务与国内生产总值之比以及杠杆率)后是稳健的。最后,我们估计了一个结构性向量自回归模型,发现利率上升与家庭资产与GDP比率下降相关,这与Galí和Gambetti(2015年,《美国经济学报》:宏观经济学》,7(1),233-257)的结论相反。这似乎支持了传统的货币政策观点。
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引用次数: 0
Market integration effect on technological innovation empirical analysis: A novel concept 市场整合对技术创新影响的实证分析:一个新概念
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-04 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12472
Zhuo Luo

In today's globalization and rapid technological development, market integration has an important impact on the competitiveness and innovation ability of enterprises. Market integration includes the integration of factor markets and goods markets, aiming to optimize resource allocation and expand market size, thus promoting economic growth and technological innovation. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of market integration on technological innovation. Using a two-stage least-squares (IV-2SLS) model and combining the data of Chinese stock market and accounting research from 2012 to 2021, it is pointed out that market integration has a significant impact on innovation ability. Research shows that the integration of factor and goods markets promotes innovation through market expansion, innovation in emerging technologies, and increased competitiveness of firms. However, there are also differences in the way that region, type of enterprise ownership, and economic sector influence market integration innovation. Factor market integration effectively promotes technological innovation by reducing government intervention and optimizing resource allocation. The results of the study provide an important reference for enterprises to make strategic decisions, especially in the face of the different effects of market integration on innovation.

在全球化和科技快速发展的今天,市场整合对企业的竞争力和创新能力有着重要的影响。市场整合包括要素市场和商品市场的整合,旨在优化资源配置,扩大市场规模,从而促进经济增长和技术创新。本研究的目的是探讨市场整合对技术创新的影响。采用两阶段最小二乘(IV-2SLS)模型,结合2012 - 2021年中国股票市场和会计研究数据,指出市场整合对创新能力有显著影响。研究表明,要素市场和商品市场的整合通过市场扩张、新兴技术创新和企业竞争力的提高来促进创新。然而,区域、企业所有制类型、经济部门对市场整合创新的影响方式也存在差异。要素市场整合通过减少政府干预和优化资源配置,有效促进技术创新。研究结果为企业制定战略决策提供了重要参考,特别是在面对市场整合对创新的不同影响时。
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引用次数: 0
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Bulletin of Economic Research
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