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Serial theft case linkage based on a two-step cumulative probability model 基于两步累积概率模型的连环盗窃案件联动
IF 1 4区 心理学 Q4 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.1002/jip.1564
Ning Ding, Mingyuan Ma, Yiming Zhai

At present, serial theft case linkage remains at the stage of empiricism. In order to overcome this subjective arbitrariness, this study proposes using a ‘two-step cumulative probability model’ for investigation. In the first step, based on expert grading method, the opinions of 99 policemen were combined to quantify the serial theft case characteristics. In the second step, when a new case occurred, the characteristics of it were compared with the characteristics of each serial theft case, and the corresponding probabilities were added according to the calculations of the second step; when the accumulated points exceeded the threshold, we considered concatenating the new case with the corresponding serial cases. The results demonstrated that the average accuracy of the two-step cumulative probability model was 87.5% and that the average response rate of the irrelevant case (control group) was 12.3%. We concluded that the two-step cumulative probability model could assist in criminal investigations.

目前,连环盗窃案件的关联还停留在经验主义的阶段。为了克服这种主观随意性,本研究提出采用“两步累积概率模型”进行调查。第一步,在专家评分法的基础上,结合99名警察的意见对连环盗窃案件特征进行量化。在第二步中,当新案件发生时,将其特征与每个连环盗窃案件的特征进行比较,并根据第二步的计算结果添加相应的概率;当累积点超过阈值时,我们考虑将新病例与相应的序列病例串联起来。结果表明,两步累积概率模型的平均准确率为87.5%,不相关病例(对照组)的平均反应率为12.3%。我们的结论是,两步累积概率模型可以辅助刑事侦查。
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引用次数: 1
Dull versus creative liars—Who deceives better? Fantasy proneness and verifiability of genuine and fabricated accounts 愚蠢的骗子和有创造力的骗子——谁更会骗人?真实和虚构账目的幻想倾向和可验证性
IF 1 4区 心理学 Q4 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.1002/jip.1565
Irena Boskovic, Ayla Ramakers, Ali Yunus Emre Akca

The Verifiability Approach (VA), a lie detection method, postulates that genuine statements contain more verifiable information, whereas fabricated reports include more non-verifiable details. We investigated whether participants low (n = 19), medium (n = 23) and high (n = 26) on fantasy proneness differ in the (non)verifiability of their genuine and fabricated accounts. The results showed that groups did not differ in terms of statements' (non)verifiability. Overall, fabricated accounts included more non-verifiable details, but did not differ in verifiable details from genuine stories. The fabricated accounts from each group were given to legal psychology experts (N = 13) who rated accounts' authenticity. Experts more often recognised false accounts from the high fantasy proneness group, hence, high fantasy prone deceivers might be easier to detect than people with lower fantasy engagement. Overall, our results show that the VA is not sensitive to fantasy proneness, however, that experts might be.

可验证性方法(VA)是一种测谎方法,它假设真实的陈述包含更多可验证的信息,而虚构的报告包含更多不可验证的细节。我们调查了幻想倾向低(n = 19)、中(n = 23)和高(n = 26)的参与者在真实和虚构账户的(非)可验证性方面是否存在差异。结果表明,各组在陈述的可验证性(非可验证性)方面没有差异。总的来说,编造的故事包含了更多无法证实的细节,但在可证实的细节上与真实故事没有区别。每组编造的账目被交给法律心理学专家(N = 13),他们对账目的真实性进行评估。专家们更容易识别出高幻想倾向组的虚假账户,因此,高幻想倾向组的骗子可能比低幻想倾向组的骗子更容易被发现。总的来说,我们的结果表明,VA对幻想倾向并不敏感,然而,专家们可能是敏感的。
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引用次数: 3
Deception detection in repeated interviews: The effects of immediate type of questioning on the delayed accounts 重复访谈中的欺骗侦测:即时型提问对延迟陈述的影响
IF 1 4区 心理学 Q4 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1002/jip.1561
Aleksandras Izotovas, Aldert Vrij, Lorraine Hope, Leif A. Strömwall, Pär A. Granhag, Samantha Mann

In this study, we examined how different types of interviewing (eliciting more complete vs. less complete accounts) used in an interview conducted shortly after an event affected truth tellers' and liars' responses when they were interviewed again after a two-week delay. Participants (n = 80) were shown a mock intelligence operation video and told either the truth or lied about its contents in two interviews, immediately after watching the video, and after a two-week delay. In the immediate interview participants were instructed either to report everything they remembered, or asked spatial questions related to the event. In the delayed interview, all participants were asked to report everything. The differences between truth tellers and liars were slightly larger in the report everything than in the spatial questions condition. Results suggest that an immediate “report everything” instruction can aid to effectively discriminate between truthful and deceptive accounts.

在这项研究中,我们研究了在事件发生后不久进行的采访中使用的不同类型的采访(引出更完整和更不完整的叙述)如何影响真话者和说谎者在两周后再次接受采访时的反应。参与者(n = 80)观看了一段模拟的情报行动视频,并在观看视频后立即和两周后的两次采访中对视频内容说真话或撒谎。在即时采访中,参与者被要求要么报告他们记得的所有事情,要么询问与事件相关的空间问题。在延迟的面试中,所有的参与者都被要求报告一切。说实话者和说谎者在“报告一切”问题上的差异略大于在空间问题条件下的差异。结果表明,立即“报告一切”的指令有助于有效区分真实和虚假的账户。
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引用次数: 3
Behavioural themes in Spanish missing persons cases: An empirical typology 西班牙失踪人口案件中的行为主题:一种经验类型
IF 1 4区 心理学 Q4 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2020-09-27 DOI: 10.1002/jip.1562
Néstor García-Barceló, José Luis González Álvarez, Penny Woolnough, Louise Almond

The high number of missing person reports that occur globally each year highlights the need for research in this academically neglected field. This research focuses on establishing whether there are different scenarios or behavioural themes that consistently appear in missing person cases in Spain, which could assist the police investigation process. A representative sample of 341 missing person police reports was collated and up to 27 behaviours, which occur during the disappearance, have been codified, as well as circumstances surrounding the case. Through multidimensional scaling four behavioural themes have been identified: intentional-escape, intentional-dysfunctional, unintentional-accidental, and forced-criminal. These findings entail implications, both in terms of prevention and in the scope of police investigations. Specifically, this research is considered a key step in the development of: (a) a predictive risk assessment system for harmed or deceased outcomes, and (b) in-depth review of forced-criminal disappearances that concur with homicide.

每年全球发生的大量失踪人口报告突出了对这一学术上被忽视的领域进行研究的必要性。本研究的重点是确定在西班牙失踪人口案件中是否存在不同的场景或行为主题,这可以帮助警方调查过程。对341份失踪人员警察报告的代表性样本进行了整理,并编纂了失踪期间发生的多达27种行为以及有关案件的情况。通过多维尺度,确定了四种行为主题:故意逃避、故意功能失调、无意意外和被迫犯罪。这些调查结果对预防和警察调查范围都有影响。具体而言,这项研究被认为是开发以下方面的关键步骤:(a)对伤害或死亡结果的预测风险评估系统,以及(b)对与凶杀相一致的强迫犯罪失踪进行深入审查。
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引用次数: 4
A critical examination of Iacono and Ben-Shakhar's critique of Ginton's innovative technique for estimating polygraph CQT accuracy in real-life cases 对Iacono和Ben-Shakhar对Ginton在现实生活中估计测谎仪CQT准确性的创新技术的批评进行了批判性的审查
IF 1 4区 心理学 Q4 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2020-09-17 DOI: 10.1002/jip.1558
Avital Ginton

Given the inherent difficulties in validating the comparison question polygraph test (CQT) by using a wide range of the conventional two categories of studies—field and laboratory— (NRC - The polygraph and lie detection, 2003), the innovative method presented by Ginton (Psychology, Crime & Law, 2013, 19, pp. 577–594), has been considered to be a breakthrough (Raskin & Kircher, 2014, Validity of polygraph techniques and decision methods. p. 82). In their recent review of the current status of polygraph validity, Iacono and Ben-Shakhar (Law & Human Behavior, 2019, 43, pp. 86–98), dedicated a significant portion of their article to scrutinising that novel approach. They did applaud Ginton's innovation for the development of the new methods but criticised its outcomes to the point that nullified any contributions it might have had in dealing with the long-lasting controversy regarding the CQT validity. The present response to that critique examines their argumentations in dismissing Ginton's study point by point, indicating reliance on some speculations that had nothing to do with reality and a profound misunderstanding or misinterpreting of the data.

考虑到在验证比较问题测谎测试(CQT)的固有困难,通过使用广泛的传统两类研究-现场和实验室- (NRC -测谎仪和测谎,2003),金顿(心理学,犯罪&;Law, 2013, 19, pp. 577-594),被认为是一个突破(Raskin &Kircher, 2014,测谎技术和决策方法的有效性。p . 82)。Iacono和Ben-Shakhar (Law &《人类行为》,2019年,第43期,第86-98页),他们的文章用了很大一部分来仔细研究这种新方法。他们确实赞扬了金顿在发展新方法方面的创新,但批评了它的结果,以至于使它在处理关于CQT有效性的长期争议方面可能做出的任何贡献无效。目前对这一批评的回应检验了他们的论点,逐点驳斥了金顿的研究,表明他们依赖于一些与现实毫无关系的猜测,以及对数据的深刻误解或误解。
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引用次数: 2
Behavioural profiles and offender characteristics: Typology based on the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI) in homicide cases 行为特征和罪犯特征:杀人案中基于人格评估量表(PAI)的类型分析
IF 1 4区 心理学 Q4 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2020-09-14 DOI: 10.1002/jip.1559
Jonghan Sea, Eric Beauregard, Donna Youngs

This study used cluster analysis in 126 homicide cases based on Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Morey, 1999). PAI was implemented by 126 homicides and then dichotomously coded for the presence or absence of cut-off PAI scale score in order to create criteria for analysis. These cases were input for the agglomerative hierarchical cluster using Ward's method as the clustering algorithm. The results of the analysis classified five clusters: “normal,” “antisocial,” “submissive-depressive,” “soma-anxiety” and “isolated.” The representative characteristics were explored and compared with five clusters. As a result, these five clusters significantly differed in various criminogenic variables, such as criminal record and imprisonment experience. But, other variables were not significantly discriminated.

本研究以人格评估量表(PAI)为基础,对126例杀人案进行聚类分析;莫雷,1999)。通过126起凶杀案实施PAI,然后对是否存在截止PAI量表得分进行二分类编码,以便创建分析标准。使用Ward方法作为聚类算法将这些案例输入到聚类层次聚类中。分析结果分为五类:“正常”、“反社会”、“顺从抑郁”、“躯体焦虑”和“孤立”。探讨了五个集群的代表性特征并进行了比较。因此,这五个集群在犯罪记录和监禁经历等各种犯罪因素上存在显著差异。而其他变量的差异不显著。
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引用次数: 2
An analysis of question style and type in official Finnish asylum interview transcripts 芬兰官方庇护面谈笔录中问题风格和类型的分析
IF 1 4区 心理学 Q4 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2020-08-06 DOI: 10.1002/jip.1557
Jenny Skrifvars, Julia Korkman, Veronica Sui, Tanja van Veldhuizen, Jan Antfolk

Interviews with asylum seekers are an important part of investigating the applicant's need of international protection. Few studies have examined if the questions used in interviews allow detailed and accurate narratives. In the current study, we analysed question style, question type, and question order from interviews of 80 official asylum cases realised by Finnish state authorities in 2017–2018. In accordance with best practise, questions were predominantly asked in an information-gathering style. However, four-fifths of the questions were closed questions, and one-tenth were open questions. The recommended question order was followed to a small degree. Possibilities on how to improve the quantity and the accuracy of the information elicited from the interviews are discussed. Future research should assess which type of questions that are most efficient in eliciting relevant information within the asylum context as well as investigating the accuracy of the interpretation.

与寻求庇护者面谈是调查申请人是否需要国际保护的一个重要部分。很少有研究检验面试中使用的问题是否允许详细和准确的叙述。在本研究中,我们分析了2017-2018年芬兰国家当局对80个官方庇护案件的采访中的问题风格、问题类型和问题顺序。按照最佳做法,问题主要以收集资料的方式提出。然而,五分之四的问题是封闭式问题,十分之一是开放式问题。建议的问题顺序在很小程度上得到了遵循。讨论了如何提高从访谈中获得的信息的数量和准确性的可能性。今后的研究应评估哪一类问题最能有效地引出有关庇护情况的资料,并调查解释的准确性。
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引用次数: 9
Multiple-victim parricides in South Africa, 1990–2019 1990-2019年南非多重受害者弑父案
IF 1 4区 心理学 Q4 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2020-08-03 DOI: 10.1002/jip.1555
Melanie Moen, Phillip Shon

Previous studies of homicides in South Africa have examined serial murders and mass killings. While some scholars have examined parricides in African countries such as Ghana and Zimbabwe, few have examined the intersection of parricide and multiple victim homicides in the context of South Africa. This paper examines multiple victim parricides in a South African context using newspapers and court records as data. Eighteen cases of multiple-victim parricides were identified and analysed. Our findings indicate that multiple victim parricides in South Africa are shaped by residential patterns as well as social and cultural factors that are unique to South Africa that are embodied in the offence characteristics. The implications on the findings are discussed.

之前对南非杀人案的研究调查了连环谋杀和大规模杀戮。虽然一些学者研究了加纳和津巴布韦等非洲国家的弑父行为,但很少有人研究南非背景下弑父行为和多重受害者凶杀案的交集。本文考察了多个受害者弑父在南非的背景下使用报纸和法庭记录作为数据。查明并分析了18起多名受害者的弑父案件。我们的研究结果表明,南非的多重受害者弑父案受到居住模式以及南非特有的社会和文化因素的影响,这些因素体现在犯罪特征中。讨论了对研究结果的影响。
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引用次数: 1
The relationship between trauma symptoms and immediate and delayed suggestibility in children who have been sexually abused 遭受性虐待儿童的创伤症状与即时和延迟易受暗示的关系
IF 1 4区 心理学 Q4 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2020-08-02 DOI: 10.1002/jip.1554
Gisli Gudjonsson, Monia Vagni, Tiziana Maiorano, Daniela Pajardi

There is general absence of research about the relationship between trauma symptoms and immediate and delayed suggestibility in children who have been sexually abused. The participants were 134 children aged between 7 and 17 years with a history of reported sexual abuse. All children completed the Gudjonsson Suggestibility Scale (2), a non-verbal IQ test, and The University of California at Los Angeles Child/Adolescent Reaction Index for post-traumatic stress (UCLA-PTSD-RI-5). Delayed suggestibility was measured after a 1 week delay. A Hierarchical Regression showed that trauma symptoms accounted overall for 43.4% of the variance in delayed suggestibility after controlling for age, sex, IQ, and immediate recall (a large effect size). There was a small shared variance between trauma and immediate suggestibility (low effect size). The findings strongly suggest that the severity of trauma symptoms impact more on delayed than immediate suggestibility. The theoretical and forensic implications are discussed.

对于遭受性虐待的儿童的创伤症状与即时和延迟易受暗示之间的关系,一般缺乏研究。参与者是134名年龄在7到17岁之间的儿童,他们都有过性虐待史。所有的孩子都完成了Gudjonsson易受暗示量表(2),一项非语言智商测试,以及加州大学洛杉矶分校儿童/青少年创伤后应激反应指数(UCLA-PTSD-RI-5)。延迟性暗示在延迟1周后测量。层次回归显示,在控制了年龄、性别、智商和即时回忆(一个大效应量)后,创伤症状占延迟易受暗示性方差的43.4%。创伤和即时易受暗示之间有一个小的共同方差(低效应量)。研究结果强烈表明,创伤症状的严重程度对延迟性暗示的影响大于对即时性暗示的影响。讨论了理论和法医学意义。
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引用次数: 9
The effects of liking on informational elements in investigative interviews 喜欢对调查性访谈中信息元素的影响
IF 1 4区 心理学 Q4 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2020-07-29 DOI: 10.1002/jip.1556
Hyisuing C. Hwang, David Matsumoto

The efficacy of principles of persuasion and influence in aiding uncooperative individuals to become more cooperative has been well documented in the basic science literature. Less known is their effects in investigative interviews. This study examined the effects of liking (positivity) on informational elements produced in investigative interviews. Interviewees participated in a mock theft experiment and were randomly assigned to tell the truth or lie about the potential theft. Half the interviews were conducted in a high liking condition, the other half in a low liking condition. High liking produced less relevant details in both the interviews and written statements for truthtellers. Rapport had direct, positive effects on relevant and irrelevant details in the interviews but not the written statements and mediated the association between liking and relevant and irrelevant details in the interviews. Veracity condition moderated the association between liking and informational elements; liking had negative effects on relevant details for truthtellers in the interviews and written statements but positive effects on irrelevant details for liars in written statements. These findings suggested the need to examine how and when liking as a social influence tactic may be effective in investigative interviews.

说服和影响原则在帮助不合作的个体变得更合作方面的功效已经在基础科学文献中得到了充分的证明。他们在调查采访中的作用鲜为人知。本研究考察了喜欢(积极)对调查性访谈中产生的信息元素的影响。受访者参加了一项模拟盗窃实验,并被随机分配对潜在的盗窃说真话或撒谎。一半的采访是在高好感度条件下进行的,另一半是在低好感度条件下进行的。对诚实者来说,高好感在采访和书面陈述中产生的相关细节都较少。融洽关系对访谈中的相关和不相关细节有直接的积极影响,但对书面陈述没有影响,并且在喜欢程度与访谈中相关和不相关细节之间的关联中起中介作用。真实性条件调节了喜好与信息要素之间的关联;喜欢对诚实者在采访和书面陈述中的相关细节有负面影响,但对说谎者在书面陈述中的不相关细节有积极影响。这些发现表明,有必要研究喜欢作为一种社会影响策略如何以及何时在调查性访谈中有效。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling
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