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英文 中文
Editorial 社论
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-27 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-08-2020-168
N. French
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引用次数: 0
It's about time 是时候了
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-21 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-06-2020-0064
Larry E. Wofford
PurposeTime is a critical element of commercial real estate (CRE) and has received only cursory attention. This paper identifies and describes the interactions between time, change and CRE. It leads to important implications and possible changes in professional practice, teaching and research.Design/methodology/approachThe research design involves identifying and synthesising research in a disparate discipline into a coherent portrayal of time, change and CRE. Using the CRE environment as a foundation, a more comprehensive, multi-disciplinary approach is developed to highlight the temporal issues within CRE.FindingsThe extreme levels of complexity, dynamism and uncertainty characterising current CRE environments affect the interaction of time, change and CRE. In response, CRE has become increasingly specialised in property types and time segments. The paper identifies four issues for CRE: the role of CRE as an integrator of different layers of civilisation with different clock speeds, the need for a temporal mindset recognising finite and infinite games, the need for temporal ambidexterity and the use of strategic foresight and scenarios. The very definition of CRE as an industry is questioned.Research limitations/implicationsNeed for essential empirical work as well as additional work for implications.Practical implicationsCRE faces disruption from many sources, and this paper considers how to incorporate time and change into analysis of the CRE market environment. It identifies specific ways CRE can understand and avoid disruption. Further, areas of teaching and research are highlighted.Social implicationsReal estate assets are substantial, long-lived assets with important consequences for society. This paper advances the analysis of such assets.Originality/valueAreas of concentration in CRE and academia needing attention are identified. The areas have generally not been considered prior to this paper.
目的时间是商业地产(CRE)的一个关键因素,但人们对它的关注并不多。本文识别并描述了时间、变化和CRE之间的相互作用。它会对专业实践、教学和研究产生重要的影响和可能的变化。设计/方法/方法研究设计包括识别和综合不同学科的研究,将其转化为对时间、变化和CRE的连贯描述。以CRE环境为基础,开发了一种更全面、多学科的方法来突出CRE中的时间问题。当前CRE环境的极端复杂性、动态性和不确定性影响了时间、变化和CRE之间的相互作用。作为回应,CRE越来越专注于房地产类型和时间段。本文确定了CRE的四个问题:CRE作为具有不同时钟速度的不同文明层次的集成商的角色,对识别有限和无限游戏的时间思维模式的需求,对时间双重性的需求以及对战略远见和场景的使用。商业地产作为一个行业的定义本身就受到了质疑。研究限制/启示需要基本的实证工作以及额外的研究。商业地产市场面临着诸多因素的干扰,本文考虑了如何将时间和变化纳入商业地产市场环境的分析。它确定了CRE可以理解和避免中断的具体方法。此外,教学和研究领域是突出的。社会影响房地产资产是大量的、长期的资产,对社会有重要影响。本文提出了对此类资产的分析。原创性/价值确定了CRE和学术界需要关注的集中领域。在本文之前,这些领域通常没有被考虑过。
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引用次数: 0
Capital flows and office markets in major global cities 全球主要城市的资本流动和写字楼市场
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-21 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-02-2020-0023
Olawumi Fadeyi, S. McGreal, M. McCord, J. Berry
PurposeOffice markets and particularly international financial centres over the past decade have experienced rapid financialisation, developments and indeed changes in the post-global financial crisis (GFC) landscape. Importantly, the volume and types of international capital flows have witnessed more foreign actors and vehicles entering into the investment landscape with the concentration of investment intensifying within key financial centres. This paper examines the interaction of international real estate capital flows in the London, New York and Tokyo office markets between 2007 and 2017.Design/methodology/approachUsing Real Capital Analytics (RCA) data comprising over 5,700 office property transactions equating to $563bn between 2007 and 2017, the direct global capital flows into the London, New York and Tokyo office markets are assessed using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Further, Granger causality tests are examined to analyse the short-run interaction of international real estate capital flows into these three major office markets.FindingsBy assessing the relativity of internal to external investments in these three central business district (CBD) office markets, differences in market dynamics are highlighted. The London office market is shown to be highly dependent on international flows and the USA, the foremost source of cross-border investment on the global stage. The cointegration and causality analysis indicate that cross-border real estate investment flows in these markets (and financial centres) show both long- and short-run relationships and suggest that the London office market remains more distinct and the most reliant on international capital flows with a wider geographical spread of investment activities and investor types. In the case of New York and Tokyo, these markets appear to be driven by more domestic investment activity and capital seemingly due to subtle factors pertaining to investor home bias, risk aversion and diversification strategies between the markets in the aftermath of the GFC.Originality/valueGiven the importance of the CBD offices in London, New York and Tokyo as an asset class for institutional investors, this paper provides some insights as to their level of connection and the interaction of the international capital flows into these three major cities.
办公楼市场,尤其是国际金融中心,在过去十年中经历了快速的金融化、发展和后全球金融危机(GFC)格局的变化。重要的是,国际资本流动的数量和类型表明,更多的外国行动者和工具进入了投资领域,主要金融中心内的投资日益集中。本文研究了2007年至2017年间伦敦、纽约和东京写字楼市场的国际房地产资本流动的相互作用。设计/方法/方法使用Real Capital Analytics (RCA)数据,包括2007年至2017年期间超过5,700笔办公物业交易,相当于5630亿美元,使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法评估直接流入伦敦、纽约和东京办公市场的全球资本。此外,格兰杰因果检验检验,以分析国际房地产资本流入这三个主要写字楼市场的短期相互作用。通过评估这三个中央商务区(CBD)写字楼市场内部与外部投资的相关性,市场动态的差异得到了突出。伦敦写字楼市场高度依赖国际流动和美国,美国是全球舞台上最重要的跨境投资来源。协整和因果分析表明,这些市场(和金融中心)的跨境房地产投资流动显示出长期和短期关系,并表明伦敦写字楼市场仍然更加独特,最依赖国际资本流动,投资活动和投资者类型的地理分布更广。在纽约和东京的情况下,这些市场似乎是由更多的国内投资活动和资本驱动的,这似乎是由于全球金融危机后与投资者的本土偏好、风险厌恶和市场之间的多样化策略有关的微妙因素。原创性/价值鉴于伦敦、纽约和东京的CBD办公室作为机构投资者的资产类别的重要性,本文提供了一些关于它们的联系程度和国际资本流入这三个主要城市的互动的见解。
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引用次数: 4
Determinants of foreign and domestic non-listed real estate fund flows in India 国外和国内非上市房地产资金在印度流动的决定因素
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-17 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-08-2019-0107
A. Gupta, G. Newell, D. Bajaj, S. Mandal
Purpose - Real estate forms an important part of any economy and the investment in real estate, in turn, is impacted by the macroeconomic environment of that country. The purpose of the present research is to examine macroeconomic determinants of foreign and domestic non-listed real estate fund (NREF) flows and to examine whether they are similar or different for an emerging economy like India. Design/methodology/approach - The long and short-run cointegration between the time-series variables is estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and error correction model (ECM) using quarterly data across the 2005–2017 period. ARDL is a suitable method for short time-series data. Findings - The empirical results indicate that domestic NREF flows are positively and significantly impacted by real GDP and performance of listed real estate stocks (i.e. BSE realty index). Whereas, foreign NREF flows are positively and significantly impacted by the exchange rate, performance of listed real estate stocks and domestic NREF flows. Practical implications - The empirical results have significant implications for academicians, policy makers and real estate market practitioners. In the context of these results, some interesting insights are gained that would help in the implementation of the policies aimed toward increasing the fund flows in the real estate sector, which in turn would have a significant trickle-down effect on the Indian economy. Originality/value - The existing literature looks at macroeconomic and other drivers of foreign investment in international real estate investments. However, there are very few studies on the determinants of domestic real estate investment flows and on determinants of NREFs' investment flows; particularly in emerging markets. The present study, in contrast, evaluates simultaneously the macroeconomic determinants of the domestic and foreign NREFs' investment flows in India. The ARDL and ECM method used has been applied for the first time to the study of NREFs.
目的-房地产是任何经济的重要组成部分,房地产投资反过来也会受到该国宏观经济环境的影响。本研究的目的是检验国内外非上市房地产基金流动的宏观经济决定因素,并检验它们对于印度这样的新兴经济体来说是相似还是不同。设计/方法/方法-使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)边界检验和误差校正模型(ECM),使用2005-2017年期间的季度数据,估计时间序列变量之间的长期和短期协整。ARDL是一种适用于短时间序列数据的方法。研究结果-实证结果表明,国内NREF流量受到实际GDP和上市房地产股业绩(即BSE房地产指数)的积极和显著影响。然而,外国NREF流动受到汇率、上市房地产股票表现和国内NREF流动的积极和显著影响。实际意义——实证结果对学者、政策制定者和房地产市场从业者具有重要意义。在这些结果的背景下,我们获得了一些有趣的见解,这些见解将有助于实施旨在增加房地产行业资金流动的政策,这反过来将对印度经济产生重大的涓滴效应。原创性/价值-现有文献着眼于国际房地产投资中外国投资的宏观经济和其他驱动因素。然而,关于国内房地产投资流动的决定因素和NREF投资流动的影响因素的研究很少;尤其是在新兴市场。相比之下,本研究同时评估了国内外NREF在印度投资流动的宏观经济决定因素。ARDL和ECM方法首次应用于NREF的研究。
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引用次数: 7
Maestros and mythologies: some lockdown reflections 大师与神话:关于封锁的一些思考
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-17 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-06-2020-0070
C. Lizieri
PurposeThe paper reflects upon the tendency of participants in the commercial real estate markets to give excess status to individuals in decision-making and to hold beliefs that are at best weakly supported empirically Design/methodology/approachThe paper is reflexive in nature, using experiential reflection to consider institutional processes in the real estate market It is important to use “methodology” correctly and not as a synonym of “method” FindingsUsing reflexive mode, the paper does not have “findings” as such: if the views expressed are accepted, then a research agenda to understand decision-making processes is implied Research limitations/implicationsThe nature of reflection is that it follows from the writer's experiential processes and interpretations The reader may come from a different stance Broadly accepting the propositions points to the need for a contextual analysis of decision-making processes in private real estate and consideration of the implications of privileging individual idiosyncratic decisions over analytic procedures Practical implicationsPrior research has demonstrated the lack of a back-testing culture in real estate that would allow empirical analysis of the consequences of “gut feel” decisions overriding modelled analysis;further, entrenched beliefs about the drivers of market performance might result in misallocation of resources Social implicationsResource allocation in commercial real estate has important consequences for land use and urban and regional development Originality/valueThe paper reflects the views and experience of the author based on over 30 years of research into commercial real estate
目的本文反映了商业房地产市场参与者在决策中给予个人过度地位的倾向,并持有充其量只能得到微弱实证支持的信念设计/方法论/方法论,使用经验反射来考虑房地产市场中的制度过程正确使用“方法论”而不是作为“方法”发现的同义词是很重要的。使用反射模式,本文没有这样的“发现”:如果所表达的观点被接受,那么,理解决策过程的研究议程就是隐含的研究局限性/含义。反思的本质是它源于作者的经验过程和解释。读者可能来自不同的立场。广泛接受这些命题表明,需要对私人房地产和考虑将个人特殊决策置于分析程序之上的含义实际含义先前的研究表明,房地产中缺乏一种回溯测试文化,这种文化允许对“直觉”决策的后果进行实证分析,而不是模型分析;此外,对市场表现驱动因素的根深蒂固的信念可能会导致资源的错误配置社会影响商业地产中的资源配置对土地利用、城市和区域发展具有重要影响原创性/价值本文反映了作者基于30多年商业地产研究的观点和经验
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引用次数: 1
Artificial intelligence and real estate - not just an evolution, a real game changer! 人工智能和房地产——不仅仅是一种进化,而是真正的游戏规则改变者!
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-14 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-06-2020-0063
Marcelo Cajias
PurposeDigitalisation and AI are the most intensively discussed topics in the real estate industry. The subject aims at increasing the efficiency of existing processes and the institutional side of the industry is really interested. And in some ways, this is a breakthrough. This article elaborates on the current status quo and future path of the industry.Design/methodology/approachThe real estate industry is evolving, and parts of the business are increasingly being conquered by “proptechs” and “fintechs”. They have come into real estate to stay not because they discovered inefficiencies in the way one manages and does business with real estate, but because they come with an arsenal of new technologies that can change the whole game. The article discusses a path for changing the game in real estate.Findings“location, location, location” has now evolved to “data, data, data”. However, there is one essential aspect that must be considered before the latter can become the real value creator: the ability of market players to analyse data. And this does not mean being an excellent Excel user. The near future sees a solution called Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) meaning that the econometric world constructed decades ago has an expiry date.Originality/valueOne needs to delete two myths from their mind: data quantity is proportional to accurate insights and that bringing your data to a cloud will deliver you with all the insights your business needs almost immediately.
数字化和人工智能是房地产行业讨论最激烈的话题。该主题旨在提高现有流程的效率,并且该行业的机构方面确实感兴趣。在某些方面,这是一个突破。本文阐述了该行业的现状和未来发展路径。设计/方法/方法房地产行业正在发展,部分业务越来越多地被“预测技术”和“金融技术”征服。他们之所以进入房地产行业,不是因为他们发现房地产管理和交易的方式效率低下,而是因为他们拥有一系列可以改变整个游戏的新技术。本文探讨了改变房地产行业游戏规则的路径。“位置、位置、位置”现在已经演变为“数据、数据、数据”。然而,在后者成为真正的价值创造者之前,必须考虑一个重要方面:市场参与者分析数据的能力。这并不意味着你要成为一个优秀的Excel用户。在不久的将来,我们会看到一种名为可解释人工智能(XAI)的解决方案,这意味着几十年前构建的计量经济学世界有了一个失效日期。创意/价值one需要从他们的脑海中删除两个神话:数据量与准确的洞察力成正比,将数据带到云端将几乎立即为您提供业务所需的所有洞察力。
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引用次数: 0
How resilient are REITs to a pandemic? The COVID-19 effect 房地产投资信托基金对疫情的抵御能力如何?新冠肺炎效应
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-10 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-06-2020-0065
O. Akinsomi
PurposeReal estate investment trusts (REITs) are historically considered as attractive assets to investors particularly as the underlying assets are properties which are income-producing REITs also distribute substantial amount of profits as dividends to shareholders Stephen and Simon (2005) find that REITs in a mixed asset portfolio of stocks and bonds enhance returns and reduce risk This paper examines the role a pandemic (COVID-19) plays in the performance of global REITs index and REIT sectors Design/methodology/approachTo examine the effects of COVID-19 on REITs, the year-to-date (YTD) returns of global returns index and REITs sectors in the United States are observed and a comparative analysis is employed from January 2020 to May 2020 FindingsBased on a three-month return ending 22 May 2020, FTSE EPRA NAREIT index is the biggest loser at −31 83% whilst the FTSE EPRA Asia–Pacific index has the lowest loss at −23 20% The author examines YTD returns which show disparities on the effect of COVID-19 on REIT sectors The US market is examined;most REIT sectors suffered big losses as at April 2020;the analysis reveals YTD returns for the top three REIT sector losers are lodging/resort REITs (−45 81%), retail REITs (−41 16%) and office REITs (−22 63%) Data centre REITs are the only sector REITs with positive returns at 17 66% Practical implicationsMost sector REITs during the pandemic have lost considerable value based on YTD returns as at May 2020 Flight to quality is expected during this uncertain period to REITs such as data REITs, grocery-anchored REITs and storage REITs These REITs are not as adversely affected by COVID-19 in comparison to other REITs Originality/valueThis paper identified the impact of COVID-19 on the performance of global REITs and US sector REITs during the periods from January 2020 to May 2020
目的房地产投资信托(REITs)历来被认为是对投资者有吸引力的资产,特别是因为基础资产是产生收入的财产。REITs还将大量利润作为股息分配给股东。Stephen和Simon(2005)发现,股票和债券混合资产组合中的REITs提高了回报并降低了风险研究大流行(新冠肺炎)在全球房地产投资信托基金指数和房地产投资基金行业表现中的作用设计/方法论/方法为了研究新冠肺炎对房地产投资投资信托基金的影响,观察了全球回报指数和美国REITs行业的年初至今(YTD)回报,并对2020年1月至2020年5月进行了比较分析,富时EPRA NAEIT指数跌幅最大,为−31 83%,而富时EPRA-Asia–Pacific指数跌幅最低,为−23 20%;截至2020年4月,大多数房地产投资信托行业遭受重大损失;分析显示,房地产投资信托行业前三大输家的年初至今回报率为住宿/度假房地产投资基金(-4581%),零售REITs(-4116%)和办公REITs(-2263%)数据中心REITs是唯一一个正回报率为1766%的行业REITs。实际意义根据截至2020年5月的年初至今回报率,疫情期间的大多数行业REITs都失去了相当大的价值,与其他房地产投资信托基金的创意/价值相比,这些房地产投资基金不会受到新冠肺炎的不利影响本文确定了新冠肺炎对2020年1月至2020年5月期间全球房地产投资投资信托基金和美国房地产投资保险基金业绩的影响
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引用次数: 37
Property futures—the art and science of strategic foresight 房地产期货——战略前瞻的艺术与科学
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-08 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-05-2020-0056
J. Ratcliffe
Purpose - The study aims to discuss the role of strategic foresight in determining and mapping possible property futures. In particular, the briefing will explore the importance of determining alternative futures and creating scenarios to help determine a flexible and adaptable strategy. Design/methodology/approach - This education briefing is an overview of property futures and strategic foresight. Findings - This is an education briefing of existing knowledge. Practical implications - Strategic foresight provides a framework and structure by identifying a focal point that looks at alternative futures and a preferred future that feed into the implementation of a strategic plan. Originality/value - This is a review of existing models.
目的——本研究旨在讨论战略远见在确定和绘制可能的房地产未来图中的作用。特别是,简报将探讨确定替代未来和创造情景的重要性,以帮助确定灵活和适应性强的战略。设计/方法/方法-本教育简报概述了房地产未来和战略远见。调查结果-这是对现有知识的教育简报。实际影响-战略远见通过确定一个关注替代未来和首选未来的协调中心,为战略计划的实施提供了一个框架和结构。创意/价值-这是对现有模型的回顾。
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引用次数: 2
Editorial 编辑
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-06 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-07-2020-167
Elaine Worzala, Larry E. Wofford, D. Wyman
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引用次数: 0
R.E. property meets technology: cross-country comparison and general framework R.E.财产与技术:跨国比较和总体框架
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-06-26 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-09-2019-0126
C. Tagliaro, S. Bellintani, G. Ciaramella
PurposeDue to the young age of proptech, little is known about the dynamics of its expansion. In particular, there is limited agreement about a definition of “proptech,” while different categorizations are popping up. A severe lack of information emerges for the proptech scenario in Italy. The goal of this paper is to systematize multiple proptech maps in the attempt to create a framework for comparison of country-specific trends and an overarching definition of proptech. The research examines the evolutionary stage of the Italian digital real estate sector and compares it to the international context.Design/methodology/approachAn in-depth analysis of 12 proptech maps at both national and international level was conducted based on online research. A list of Italian proptech companies was composed through multiple methods. A map was built for a cross-country comparison.FindingsEach country or organization tends to develop its own categorization. This creates a multifaceted context where comparison and analysis are challenging. The Italian proptech sector seems underdeveloped compared to neighboring countries. Big room for improving the proptech business in this country still exists.Practical implicationsThe results are valuable for proptech start-ups, business investors and well-established real estate actors to build on new entrepreneurial initiatives. The opportunity to advance proptech mapping and categorization emerges as a prospect for future research.Originality/valueThis research adds an overview of cross-country proptech categories and proposes the first analysis of Italian proptech. This will contribute to support entrepreneurial opportunities.
由于protech的年龄很小,对其扩张的动力学知之甚少。特别是,关于“proptech”的定义,人们的共识有限,而不同的分类层出不穷。意大利的proptech情况严重缺乏相关信息。本文的目标是将多个proptech地图系统化,试图创建一个框架,以比较具体国家的趋势和proptech的总体定义。该研究考察了意大利数字房地产行业的发展阶段,并将其与国际背景进行了比较。设计/方法/方法基于在线研究,对12张国内和国际层面的proptech地图进行了深入分析。通过多种方法编制了意大利proptech公司名单。为了进行全国比较,绘制了一张地图。每个国家或组织倾向于发展自己的分类。这创造了一个多方面的环境,比较和分析是具有挑战性的。与邻国相比,意大利的proptech产业似乎不发达。这个国家的预言产业还有很大的发展空间。实际意义:研究结果对科技初创企业、商业投资者和成熟的房地产参与者有价值,有助于他们建立新的创业计划。推进预言技术映射和分类的机会成为未来研究的前景。原创性/价值本研究增加了对跨国proptech类别的概述,并提出了对意大利proptech的首次分析。这将有助于支持创业机会。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
Journal of Property Investment & Finance
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