Pub Date : 2022-12-20DOI: 10.1108/ijesm-11-2021-0019
Ganisha N.P. Athaudage, H. Perera, P. Sugathadasa, M. D. De Silva, O. K. Herath
Purpose The crude oil supply chain (COSC) is one of the most complex and largest supply chains in the world. It is easily vulnerable to extreme events. Recently, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (often known as COVID-19) pandemic created a massive imbalance between supply and demand which caused significant price fluctuations. The purpose of this study is to explore the influential factors affecting the international COSC in terms of consumption, production and price. Furthermore, it develops a model to predict the international crude oil price during disease outbreaks using Random Forest (RF) regression. Design/methodology/approach This study uses both qualitative and quantitative approaches. A qualitative study is conducted using a literature review to explore the influential factors on COSC. All the data are extracted from Web sources. In addition to COVID-19, four other diseases are considered to optimize the accuracy of predictive results. A principal component analysis is deployed to reduce the number of variables. A forecasting model is developed using RF regression. Findings The findings of the qualitative analysis characterize the factors that influence international COSC. The findings of quantitative analysis emphasize that production and consumption have a higher contribution to the variance of the data set. Also, this study found that the impact caused to crude oil price varies with the region. Most importantly, the model introduced using the RF technique provides a high predictive ability in short horizons such as infectious diseases. This study delivers future directions and insights to researchers and practitioners to expand the study further. Originality/value This is one of the few available pieces of research which uses the RF method in the context of crude oil price forecasting. Additionally, this study examines international COSC in the events of emergencies, specifically disease outbreaks using machine learning techniques.
{"title":"Modelling the impact of disease outbreaks on the international crude oil supply chain using Random Forest regression","authors":"Ganisha N.P. Athaudage, H. Perera, P. Sugathadasa, M. D. De Silva, O. K. Herath","doi":"10.1108/ijesm-11-2021-0019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-11-2021-0019","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The crude oil supply chain (COSC) is one of the most complex and largest supply chains in the world. It is easily vulnerable to extreme events. Recently, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (often known as COVID-19) pandemic created a massive imbalance between supply and demand which caused significant price fluctuations. The purpose of this study is to explore the influential factors affecting the international COSC in terms of consumption, production and price. Furthermore, it develops a model to predict the international crude oil price during disease outbreaks using Random Forest (RF) regression.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study uses both qualitative and quantitative approaches. A qualitative study is conducted using a literature review to explore the influential factors on COSC. All the data are extracted from Web sources. In addition to COVID-19, four other diseases are considered to optimize the accuracy of predictive results. A principal component analysis is deployed to reduce the number of variables. A forecasting model is developed using RF regression.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings of the qualitative analysis characterize the factors that influence international COSC. The findings of quantitative analysis emphasize that production and consumption have a higher contribution to the variance of the data set. Also, this study found that the impact caused to crude oil price varies with the region. Most importantly, the model introduced using the RF technique provides a high predictive ability in short horizons such as infectious diseases. This study delivers future directions and insights to researchers and practitioners to expand the study further.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This is one of the few available pieces of research which uses the RF method in the context of crude oil price forecasting. Additionally, this study examines international COSC in the events of emergencies, specifically disease outbreaks using machine learning techniques.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46430,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Sector Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43980130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-19DOI: 10.1108/ijesm-04-2022-0004
C. Pal, R. Shankar
Purpose The need to address energy management as a significant innovation in the smart grid is emphasized to enable a more effective penetration of renewable energy to achieve energy savings and CO2 emission reductions. The purpose of this study is to propose a holistic, flexible decision framework for energy management in a smart grid. Design/methodology/approach According to the situation actor process−learning action performance (SAP−LAP) model, the variables have been identified after a comprehensive analysis of the literature and consideration of the opinions of domain experts. However, the importance of each SAP−LAP variable is not the same in real practice. Hence, focus on these variables should be given based on their importance, and to measure this importance, an interpretive ranking process based ranking method is used in this study. This helps to allocate proportionate resource to each SAP−LAP variable to make a better decision for the energy management of the smart grid. Findings This study ranked five actors based on their priorities for energy management in a smart grid: top management, generator and retailor, consumers, government policy and regulation and technology vendors. Furthermore, actions are also prioritized with respect to performance. Practical implications The SAP−LAP model conveys information about the state of energy management in India to actors who may proceed or manage the flow of electricity. Additionally, this study aids in detecting vulnerabilities in the current energy generation, transmission and distribution technique. The synthesis of SAP results in LAP, which assists in recommending improvement actions learned from the current situation, actors and processes. Originality/value The SAP−LAP model is a revolutionary approach for examining the current state of energy management in a unified framework that can guide decision-making in conflicting situations, significantly the contradictory nature of India’s renewable energy and power sectors.
{"title":"A systematic inquiry of energy management in smart grid by using SAP-LAP and IRP approach","authors":"C. Pal, R. Shankar","doi":"10.1108/ijesm-04-2022-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-04-2022-0004","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The need to address energy management as a significant innovation in the smart grid is emphasized to enable a more effective penetration of renewable energy to achieve energy savings and CO2 emission reductions. The purpose of this study is to propose a holistic, flexible decision framework for energy management in a smart grid.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000According to the situation actor process−learning action performance (SAP−LAP) model, the variables have been identified after a comprehensive analysis of the literature and consideration of the opinions of domain experts. However, the importance of each SAP−LAP variable is not the same in real practice. Hence, focus on these variables should be given based on their importance, and to measure this importance, an interpretive ranking process based ranking method is used in this study. This helps to allocate proportionate resource to each SAP−LAP variable to make a better decision for the energy management of the smart grid.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This study ranked five actors based on their priorities for energy management in a smart grid: top management, generator and retailor, consumers, government policy and regulation and technology vendors. Furthermore, actions are also prioritized with respect to performance.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The SAP−LAP model conveys information about the state of energy management in India to actors who may proceed or manage the flow of electricity. Additionally, this study aids in detecting vulnerabilities in the current energy generation, transmission and distribution technique. The synthesis of SAP results in LAP, which assists in recommending improvement actions learned from the current situation, actors and processes.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The SAP−LAP model is a revolutionary approach for examining the current state of energy management in a unified framework that can guide decision-making in conflicting situations, significantly the contradictory nature of India’s renewable energy and power sectors.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46430,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Sector Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43896031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-14DOI: 10.1108/ijesm-11-2021-0003
Visar Hoxha, Dhurata Hoxha
Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of intention for energy and water conservation behavior in Prishtina, Kosovo by using the theory of planned behavior (TPB) conceptual framework and then examine the influence of intention and demographic factors on the conservation behavior itself. In addition, the present study examines the differences between urban and rural consumers in Prishtina in terms of their intention for energy and water conservation behaviors and their actual conservation behavior. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a qualitative approach by conducting ten in-depth interviews followed by one focus group with urban consumers and ten in-depth interviews followed by one focus group with rural consumers in Prishtina to analyze the influence of determinants on the conservation intention. In addition, the present study uses the quantitative research method to empirically examine the influence of intention and demographic variables on the actual conservation behavior. Findings The findings show that there is a difference between the urban and rural sample populations in Prishtina in terms of determinants that influence their intention to conserve energy and water. While attitude is the strongest determinant among the urban population, the social norms seem to be the strongest antecedent of the behavioral intention among the rural population. In addition, the study finds that the intention, income, family size and place of residence as a whole influence the actual behavior; however, the manifestation of the influence of separate variables on the actual conservation varies between urban and rural population. While intention is very strong among urban respondents and the actual conservation behavior is less dependent on the income level and family size, in the case of rural respondents, intention alone is not sufficient to predict the actual behavior and varies also on the income level. Originality/value The study brings unique and new knowledge about the application of the TPB in the context of small and developing economies bridging the research gaps arising from few scholarly research studying the differences between urban and rural populations.
{"title":"Investigation of urban versus rural energy and water conservation behavior in Prishtina, Kosovo","authors":"Visar Hoxha, Dhurata Hoxha","doi":"10.1108/ijesm-11-2021-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-11-2021-0003","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of intention for energy and water conservation behavior in Prishtina, Kosovo by using the theory of planned behavior (TPB) conceptual framework and then examine the influence of intention and demographic factors on the conservation behavior itself. In addition, the present study examines the differences between urban and rural consumers in Prishtina in terms of their intention for energy and water conservation behaviors and their actual conservation behavior.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study uses a qualitative approach by conducting ten in-depth interviews followed by one focus group with urban consumers and ten in-depth interviews followed by one focus group with rural consumers in Prishtina to analyze the influence of determinants on the conservation intention. In addition, the present study uses the quantitative research method to empirically examine the influence of intention and demographic variables on the actual conservation behavior.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings show that there is a difference between the urban and rural sample populations in Prishtina in terms of determinants that influence their intention to conserve energy and water. While attitude is the strongest determinant among the urban population, the social norms seem to be the strongest antecedent of the behavioral intention among the rural population. In addition, the study finds that the intention, income, family size and place of residence as a whole influence the actual behavior; however, the manifestation of the influence of separate variables on the actual conservation varies between urban and rural population. While intention is very strong among urban respondents and the actual conservation behavior is less dependent on the income level and family size, in the case of rural respondents, intention alone is not sufficient to predict the actual behavior and varies also on the income level.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The study brings unique and new knowledge about the application of the TPB in the context of small and developing economies bridging the research gaps arising from few scholarly research studying the differences between urban and rural populations.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46430,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Sector Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48479210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-08DOI: 10.1108/ijesm-08-2022-0013
I. Abdulqadir
Purpose This study aims to examine the nexuses between economic growth, trade openness, renewable energy consumption and environmental degradation among organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) members over the period 1990–2019. Design/methodology/approach The empirical strategy for the study includes dynamic heterogeneous panel pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG) estimators and dynamic panel threshold regression (TR) analysis. For clarity, PMG and MG are used to explore the long-run relationship between the variables, whereas TR is used to uncover the actionable and complementary policy thresholds in the nexuses between green growth and environmental degradation. Findings The empirical evidence is based on the significant estimates from PMG and TR. First, using PMG, the study finding revealed a long-run relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation via the PMG estimator. Second, using TR, the study revealed an actionable threshold for carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) metrics tons per capita (mtpc) not beyond a critical mass of 4.88mtpc, and the complementary policy threshold of 85% of the share of trade to gross domestic product, respectively. Research limitations/implications The policy relevance of the thresholds is apparent to policymakers in the cartel and for policy formulation. The policy implication of this study is straightforward. Originality/value The novelty of this study stalk in the extant literature on providing policymakers with an actionable threshold for CO2 emissions with the corresponding complementary threshold for trade policies in the nexuses between green growth and the environment.
{"title":"CO2 emissions policy thresholds for renewable energy consumption on economic growth in OPEC member countries","authors":"I. Abdulqadir","doi":"10.1108/ijesm-08-2022-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-08-2022-0013","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to examine the nexuses between economic growth, trade openness, renewable energy consumption and environmental degradation among organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) members over the period 1990–2019.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The empirical strategy for the study includes dynamic heterogeneous panel pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG) estimators and dynamic panel threshold regression (TR) analysis. For clarity, PMG and MG are used to explore the long-run relationship between the variables, whereas TR is used to uncover the actionable and complementary policy thresholds in the nexuses between green growth and environmental degradation.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The empirical evidence is based on the significant estimates from PMG and TR. First, using PMG, the study finding revealed a long-run relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation via the PMG estimator. Second, using TR, the study revealed an actionable threshold for carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) metrics tons per capita (mtpc) not beyond a critical mass of 4.88mtpc, and the complementary policy threshold of 85% of the share of trade to gross domestic product, respectively.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The policy relevance of the thresholds is apparent to policymakers in the cartel and for policy formulation. The policy implication of this study is straightforward.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The novelty of this study stalk in the extant literature on providing policymakers with an actionable threshold for CO2 emissions with the corresponding complementary threshold for trade policies in the nexuses between green growth and the environment.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46430,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Sector Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45143038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-08DOI: 10.1108/ijesm-07-2022-0009
Abdallah Abdul-Mumuni, Barbara Deladem Mensah, Richard Amankwa Fosu
Purpose While there are enormous studies on the determinants of environmental degradation, empirical studies on the effect of renewable energy consumption and economic growth on the environment remain limited. The purpose of this paper is to examine the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and economic growth on environmental degradation in 31 selected sub-Saharan African countries spanning from 1990 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach To examine possible asymmetric effects of the exogenous variables on environmental degradation, we used the panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach and secondary data was sourced from the World Bank (2021). Findings The cointegration test results suggest that there is a long-run cointegration among the variables whereas our main findings indicate that environmental degradation responds asymmetrically to changes in renewable energy consumption and economic growth. The results further reveal that both positive and negative shocks in renewable energy consumption reduce environmental degradation. On the other hand, positive and negative shocks in economic growth increase environmental degradation in the long run. Research limitations/implications The implications of this study include the need for policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa to encourage the utilization of renewable energy as it reduces environmental degradation. Also, governments in the subregion should gradually replace the usage of fossil fuels by adapting renewable energy sources so as to achieve higher economic growth. Originality/value The positive and negative shocks of renewable energy consumption and economic growth on environmental degradation are examined to ascertain their asymmetric relationships.
{"title":"Asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and economic growth on environmental degradation in sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Abdallah Abdul-Mumuni, Barbara Deladem Mensah, Richard Amankwa Fosu","doi":"10.1108/ijesm-07-2022-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-07-2022-0009","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000While there are enormous studies on the determinants of environmental degradation, empirical studies on the effect of renewable energy consumption and economic growth on the environment remain limited. The purpose of this paper is to examine the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and economic growth on environmental degradation in 31 selected sub-Saharan African countries spanning from 1990 to 2018.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000To examine possible asymmetric effects of the exogenous variables on environmental degradation, we used the panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach and secondary data was sourced from the World Bank (2021).\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The cointegration test results suggest that there is a long-run cointegration among the variables whereas our main findings indicate that environmental degradation responds asymmetrically to changes in renewable energy consumption and economic growth. The results further reveal that both positive and negative shocks in renewable energy consumption reduce environmental degradation. On the other hand, positive and negative shocks in economic growth increase environmental degradation in the long run.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The implications of this study include the need for policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa to encourage the utilization of renewable energy as it reduces environmental degradation. Also, governments in the subregion should gradually replace the usage of fossil fuels by adapting renewable energy sources so as to achieve higher economic growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The positive and negative shocks of renewable energy consumption and economic growth on environmental degradation are examined to ascertain their asymmetric relationships.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46430,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Sector Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45517409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-07DOI: 10.1108/ijesm-03-2022-0009
Y. Subramaniam, T. A. Masron, Nanthakumar Loganathan
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential role of remittances on renewable energy consumption in the top recipient developing countries from 1990 to 2016. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to fulfil the purpose. Findings The empirical findings divulge that remittances positively affect renewable energy consumption. This finding implies that remittances can potentially increase the level of renewable energy consumption by increasing affordability if proper incentives and encouragement are offered. Practical implications Given the enormous potential that renewable energy can bring to an economy, the government should offer indirect incentives to encourage recipients to allocate a portion of their remittances to renewable energy projects, either as minor investors or users. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is novel for two reasons. First, this study adds to the existing literature by empirically examining the link between remittances and renewable energy consumption in the top five remittance recipients, which have never been studied before. Second, the findings of this study will have policy implications not only for the top remittance recipients but also for other remittance recipients, particularly for developing countries.
{"title":"Remittances and renewable energy: an empirical analysis","authors":"Y. Subramaniam, T. A. Masron, Nanthakumar Loganathan","doi":"10.1108/ijesm-03-2022-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-03-2022-0009","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential role of remittances on renewable energy consumption in the top recipient developing countries from 1990 to 2016.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The paper uses autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to fulfil the purpose.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The empirical findings divulge that remittances positively affect renewable energy consumption. This finding implies that remittances can potentially increase the level of renewable energy consumption by increasing affordability if proper incentives and encouragement are offered.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Given the enormous potential that renewable energy can bring to an economy, the government should offer indirect incentives to encourage recipients to allocate a portion of their remittances to renewable energy projects, either as minor investors or users.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is novel for two reasons. First, this study adds to the existing literature by empirically examining the link between remittances and renewable energy consumption in the top five remittance recipients, which have never been studied before. Second, the findings of this study will have policy implications not only for the top remittance recipients but also for other remittance recipients, particularly for developing countries.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46430,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Sector Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45123127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-06DOI: 10.1108/ijesm-02-2022-0005
O. Adeosun, M. Tabash, X. Vo
Purpose This paper aims to accommodate the influence of both economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the relationship between oil price and exchange-rate returns in the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries through an interaction term (EPGR). Design/methodology/approach The authors use continuous wavelet transform (CWT), wavelet coherence (WC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC). First, the authors apply the CWT to examine the evolution of oil prices, EPGR and exchange rate returns. Second, the authors use WC to investigate the relationship between oil price and exchange rate returns (excluding EPGR). Third, the authors use PWC to account for EPGR’s impact on the oil exchange rate returns dynamics and explore partial correlations in the oil and exchange rate returns dynamics. Findings The empirical results generally show that EPGR is a key driver in the oil and exchange rate returns nexus. Practical implications The relevance of EPGR in influencing exchange rate volatility is confirmed by the findings. As a result, it is critical for government officials and foreign exchange investors to use EPGR as a leading indicator when establishing foreign exchange trading strategies and economic forecasts. Originality/value This study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to apply a wavelet-based technique to account for EPGR in the relationship between oil and exchange rate returns in the BRICS countries.
{"title":"Oil prices, news-based uncertainty measures and exchange rate returns in BRICS countries","authors":"O. Adeosun, M. Tabash, X. Vo","doi":"10.1108/ijesm-02-2022-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-02-2022-0005","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to accommodate the influence of both economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the relationship between oil price and exchange-rate returns in the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries through an interaction term (EPGR).\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The authors use continuous wavelet transform (CWT), wavelet coherence (WC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC). First, the authors apply the CWT to examine the evolution of oil prices, EPGR and exchange rate returns. Second, the authors use WC to investigate the relationship between oil price and exchange rate returns (excluding EPGR). Third, the authors use PWC to account for EPGR’s impact on the oil exchange rate returns dynamics and explore partial correlations in the oil and exchange rate returns dynamics.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The empirical results generally show that EPGR is a key driver in the oil and exchange rate returns nexus.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The relevance of EPGR in influencing exchange rate volatility is confirmed by the findings. As a result, it is critical for government officials and foreign exchange investors to use EPGR as a leading indicator when establishing foreign exchange trading strategies and economic forecasts.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to apply a wavelet-based technique to account for EPGR in the relationship between oil and exchange rate returns in the BRICS countries.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46430,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Sector Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46219465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-02DOI: 10.1108/ijesm-05-2022-0016
M. Rafei, S. Mamipour, Nasim Bahari
Purpose The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2 Design/methodology/approach The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2 using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The dynamics of the results enable us to study the amount and severity of the impact of the oil price shocks on inflation with the distinction of the sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods. The volume of oil export is used to identify the effective oil sanctions. The period is divided into sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods by Markov switching model. Findings The results show that the pass-through of oil price shocks into Iran’s inflation are time-varying, and there are significant differences at sanction period from other time horizons. An increase in oil price has a positive effect on inflation and its effects are stronger during the sanctions period. It is also observed that the producer price index is more sensitive to changes in the oil price than the consumer price index. The necessity of the government’s earnest efforts to improve international relations to lift the sanctions, along with diversification of exports, and making the economy of Iran independent of oil revenues is obvious. Originality/value In addition to the exogenous oil price shocks, Iran’s economy faces numerous restrictions for its oil exports due to the sanctions. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2 using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The dynamics of the results enable us to study the amount and severity of the impact of the oil price shocks on inflation with the distinction of the sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods. The volume of oil export is used to identify the effective oil sanctions.
{"title":"Dynamic path through of oil price shocks into inflation in Iran: application of Markov switching and TVP-VAR models","authors":"M. Rafei, S. Mamipour, Nasim Bahari","doi":"10.1108/ijesm-05-2022-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-05-2022-0016","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2 using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The dynamics of the results enable us to study the amount and severity of the impact of the oil price shocks on inflation with the distinction of the sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods. The volume of oil export is used to identify the effective oil sanctions. The period is divided into sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods by Markov switching model.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results show that the pass-through of oil price shocks into Iran’s inflation are time-varying, and there are significant differences at sanction period from other time horizons. An increase in oil price has a positive effect on inflation and its effects are stronger during the sanctions period. It is also observed that the producer price index is more sensitive to changes in the oil price than the consumer price index. The necessity of the government’s earnest efforts to improve international relations to lift the sanctions, along with diversification of exports, and making the economy of Iran independent of oil revenues is obvious.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000In addition to the exogenous oil price shocks, Iran’s economy faces numerous restrictions for its oil exports due to the sanctions. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2 using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The dynamics of the results enable us to study the amount and severity of the impact of the oil price shocks on inflation with the distinction of the sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods. The volume of oil export is used to identify the effective oil sanctions.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46430,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Sector Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42930781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-02DOI: 10.1108/ijesm-06-2022-0015
M. Arnaut, J. Dada
Purpose Motivated by the 2030 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG-7: clean and affordable energy, SDG-8: sustainable economic growth, SDG-13: climate action), this study aims to investigate the role of economic complexity, disaggregated energy consumption in addition to economic growth, financial development, globalization and urbanization on the ecological footprint of United Arab Emirates (UAE). Design/methodology/approach This study adopts unit root tests (with and without a structural break), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and dynamic ordinary least squares. Findings The results obtained from the ARDL model suggest that economic complexity (EC), nonrenewable energy and economic growth increase the ecological footprint in both the short and long run, thus deteriorating the environment. However, renewable energy and urbanization reduce the ecological footprint in UAE during the two periods, thus improving environmental quality. Globalization and financial development have different influences on ecological footprint during these periods. These findings are robust to other estimation techniques. Practical implications Based on these results, this study offers significant policy implications such as increasing renewable energy supply, particularly solar energy and aligning the product manufacturing structure and complexity toward producing environmentally friendly products which can be used to realize the nation’s agenda of reducing fossil fuels consumption to 38% by 2050 and achieving sustainable environment and growth. Originality/value This study provides an empirical attempt to investigate the influence of EC and renewable and nonrenewable energy on the ecological footprint of the UAE.
{"title":"Exploring the nexus between economic complexity, energy consumption and ecological footprint: new insights from the United Arab Emirates","authors":"M. Arnaut, J. Dada","doi":"10.1108/ijesm-06-2022-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-06-2022-0015","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Motivated by the 2030 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG-7: clean and affordable energy, SDG-8: sustainable economic growth, SDG-13: climate action), this study aims to investigate the role of economic complexity, disaggregated energy consumption in addition to economic growth, financial development, globalization and urbanization on the ecological footprint of United Arab Emirates (UAE).\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study adopts unit root tests (with and without a structural break), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and dynamic ordinary least squares.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results obtained from the ARDL model suggest that economic complexity (EC), nonrenewable energy and economic growth increase the ecological footprint in both the short and long run, thus deteriorating the environment. However, renewable energy and urbanization reduce the ecological footprint in UAE during the two periods, thus improving environmental quality. Globalization and financial development have different influences on ecological footprint during these periods. These findings are robust to other estimation techniques.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Based on these results, this study offers significant policy implications such as increasing renewable energy supply, particularly solar energy and aligning the product manufacturing structure and complexity toward producing environmentally friendly products which can be used to realize the nation’s agenda of reducing fossil fuels consumption to 38% by 2050 and achieving sustainable environment and growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study provides an empirical attempt to investigate the influence of EC and renewable and nonrenewable energy on the ecological footprint of the UAE.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46430,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Sector Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48130143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-17DOI: 10.1108/ijesm-04-2022-0010
M. Shameem P, Krishna Reddy Chittedi, Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath
Purpose The purpose of this study is to dissect the transport infrastructure performance, public spending in transport infrastructure development and the manufacturing sector in determining the transport sector energy consumption. Design/methodology/approach An analysis of transport energy consumption with the transport infrastructure performance, public spending in transport infrastructure and manufacturing sector output in India using annual data for the period 1987–2019. The study used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach along with FMOLS, DOLS and canonical cointegration regression (CCR) methods. Findings The results of the ARDL bounds test provide evidence for the long- and short-run relationships among study variables. It evidenced that transport infrastructure performance reduces transport energy consumption by using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR methods. Furthermore, the inference of the positive impact of value added in the manufacturing sector on transport energy consumption validates the higher energy demand of the manufacturing sector from a mobility perspective. Practical implications The estimated finding of this study is expected to be contributing to policy-making discussions on transport infrastructure and manufacturing sector development in an emerging economy like India with insights on energy consumption. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that integrates the impact of manufacturing sector output on transport sector energy consumption along with transport infrastructure performance and public investment in the transport infrastructure.
{"title":"Transport infrastructure and manufacturing sector: an energy perspective from India","authors":"M. Shameem P, Krishna Reddy Chittedi, Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath","doi":"10.1108/ijesm-04-2022-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-04-2022-0010","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this study is to dissect the transport infrastructure performance, public spending in transport infrastructure development and the manufacturing sector in determining the transport sector energy consumption.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000An analysis of transport energy consumption with the transport infrastructure performance, public spending in transport infrastructure and manufacturing sector output in India using annual data for the period 1987–2019. The study used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach along with FMOLS, DOLS and canonical cointegration regression (CCR) methods.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results of the ARDL bounds test provide evidence for the long- and short-run relationships among study variables. It evidenced that transport infrastructure performance reduces transport energy consumption by using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR methods. Furthermore, the inference of the positive impact of value added in the manufacturing sector on transport energy consumption validates the higher energy demand of the manufacturing sector from a mobility perspective.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The estimated finding of this study is expected to be contributing to policy-making discussions on transport infrastructure and manufacturing sector development in an emerging economy like India with insights on energy consumption.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that integrates the impact of manufacturing sector output on transport sector energy consumption along with transport infrastructure performance and public investment in the transport infrastructure.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46430,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Sector Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45757011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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