Pub Date : 2020-08-31DOI: 10.18356/16840348-2020-131-3
M. Arana
This article analyses the origin and development of the technique of programming of Jorge Ahumada, of the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA),2 and its importance for economists and economic development planning institutions. To that end, it examines the circulation of the technique in various organizations in Argentina and shows how planning gained legitimacy alongside the main economic policy debates of the mid-twentieth century, while describing the institutional circulation of experts and their texts in the country. The ECLA contribution was found to have a direct impact on local institutions, which reinforced the idea of accelerated growth with economic stability and contributed significantly to the theoretical training of economists in Argentina.
{"title":"The ECLA technique of programming and economists in Argentina in the mid-twentieth century","authors":"M. Arana","doi":"10.18356/16840348-2020-131-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/16840348-2020-131-3","url":null,"abstract":"This article analyses the origin and development of the technique of programming of Jorge Ahumada, of the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA),2 and its importance for economists and economic development planning institutions. To that end, it examines the circulation of the technique in various organizations in Argentina and shows how planning gained legitimacy alongside the main economic policy debates of the mid-twentieth century, while describing the institutional circulation of experts and their texts in the country. The ECLA contribution was found to have a direct impact on local institutions, which reinforced the idea of accelerated growth with economic stability and contributed significantly to the theoretical training of economists in Argentina.","PeriodicalId":46450,"journal":{"name":"Cepal Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42855116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-31DOI: 10.18356/16840348-2020-131-8
P. Mendes, Gustavo Britto, A. Hermeto
Technological composition and productive diversification are distinguishing features of countries’ long-term growth trajectories. Investing in research and development (R&D), infrastructure and technology is a possible alternative for developing countries looking to accelerate their growth trajectory. In the case of Brazil, the production structure must be modified and productivity increased, by endogenizing technological advances, in order to narrow the technology gap. The factors that determine investment in absorption of external knowledge must be defined. To this end, a multilevel analysis was performed, based on microdata from the local unit section of the Annual Industrial Survey-Enterprise (Pesquisa Industrial Anual–Unidade Local) and the Survey of Innovation (PINTEC) (2008, 2011 and 2014) conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The results bear out the theory regarding the internal determinants of firms’ innovative activities. Municipal determinants appear consistent with the literature only for “machinery and equipment” and “training” expenditure, while diversified spaces have little influence on levels of R&D expenditure.
{"title":"Brazilian industry and knowledge absorption: Internal and external company determinants","authors":"P. Mendes, Gustavo Britto, A. Hermeto","doi":"10.18356/16840348-2020-131-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/16840348-2020-131-8","url":null,"abstract":"Technological composition and productive diversification are distinguishing features of countries’ long-term growth trajectories. Investing in research and development (R&D), infrastructure and technology is a possible alternative for developing countries looking to accelerate their growth trajectory. In the case of Brazil, the production structure must be modified and productivity increased, by endogenizing technological advances, in order to narrow the technology gap. The factors that determine investment in absorption of external knowledge must be defined. To this end, a multilevel analysis was performed, based on microdata from the local unit section of the Annual Industrial Survey-Enterprise (Pesquisa Industrial Anual–Unidade Local) and the Survey of Innovation (PINTEC) (2008, 2011 and 2014) conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The results bear out the theory regarding the internal determinants of firms’ innovative activities. Municipal determinants appear consistent with the literature only for “machinery and equipment” and “training” expenditure, while diversified spaces have little influence on levels of R&D expenditure.","PeriodicalId":46450,"journal":{"name":"Cepal Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42246835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-31DOI: 10.18356/16840348-2020-131-1
J. Ocampo
The current economic crisis will be remembered, not only as the worst since the Great Depression, but also for the limited multilateral financial cooperation agreed, particularly for middle-income economies. Several Latin American countries have benefited from flexible and emergency credit lines from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in addition to other IMF instruments. Members of the Latin American Reserve Fund (known by its Spanish acronym, FLAR) can access its resources. Multilateral development banks have taken steps to support Latin American countries, but resources are limited. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) have reached their lending capacity limit and need to be capitalized. The World Bank has increased its lending to the region, but these loans amount to less than those granted in 2009–2010. The actions of the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) are noteworthy, thanks to its recent capitalization.
{"title":"International financial cooperation to address the Latin American economic crisis","authors":"J. Ocampo","doi":"10.18356/16840348-2020-131-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/16840348-2020-131-1","url":null,"abstract":"The current economic crisis will be remembered, not only as the worst since the Great Depression, but also for the limited multilateral financial cooperation agreed, particularly for middle-income economies. Several Latin American countries have benefited from flexible and emergency credit lines from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in addition to other IMF instruments. Members of the Latin American Reserve Fund (known by its Spanish acronym, FLAR) can access its resources. Multilateral development banks have taken steps to support Latin American countries, but resources are limited. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) have reached their lending capacity limit and need to be capitalized. The World Bank has increased its lending to the region, but these loans amount to less than those granted in 2009–2010. The actions of the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) are noteworthy, thanks to its recent capitalization.","PeriodicalId":46450,"journal":{"name":"Cepal Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42879566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-31DOI: 10.18356/16840348-2020-131-7
Germán Osorio Novela, A. Lagarda, Edison Jiménez López
This paper analyses the historical performance of the Mexican manufacturing industry based on the strategies that began to be adopted in the 1960s. It examines in particular the relationship between the productive increases driven by the opening of the market and the levels of economic well-being observed among people involved in this sector. The results of a sequential analysis of historical trends and estimates of production functions and distribution mechanisms suggest that the productive success of the manufacturing industry has only served to boost the economic well-being of companies and their owners, but not that of their employees or the wider community.
{"title":"The manufacturing industry in Mexico: A history of production without distribution","authors":"Germán Osorio Novela, A. Lagarda, Edison Jiménez López","doi":"10.18356/16840348-2020-131-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/16840348-2020-131-7","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the historical performance of the Mexican manufacturing industry based on the strategies that began to be adopted in the 1960s. It examines in particular the relationship between the productive increases driven by the opening of the market and the levels of economic well-being observed among people involved in this sector. The results of a sequential analysis of historical trends and estimates of production functions and distribution mechanisms suggest that the productive success of the manufacturing industry has only served to boost the economic well-being of companies and their owners, but not that of their employees or the wider community.","PeriodicalId":46450,"journal":{"name":"Cepal Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42666783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Leonel Muinelo‐Gallo, Joana Urraburu Bordon, P. Scavone
This article conducts an empirical analysis of the role of intergovernmental transfers in a group of regions (departments) in Uruguay during the period 2006–2014. It examines the structure and evolution of regional fiscal disparities and the equalizing effects of the current transfer system. It then proposes an innovative methodology for simulating the effects of a new system of equalization transfers. The main finding is that implementing this new system would help to consolidate greater territorial fiscal homogeneity in Uruguay.
{"title":"Fiscal disparities in Uruguay’s regions: The role of a new systemof intergovernmental equalization transfers","authors":"Leonel Muinelo‐Gallo, Joana Urraburu Bordon, P. Scavone","doi":"10.18356/042857cd-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/042857cd-en","url":null,"abstract":"This article conducts an empirical analysis of the role of intergovernmental transfers in a group of regions (departments) in Uruguay during the period 2006–2014. It examines the structure and evolution of regional fiscal disparities and the equalizing effects of the current transfer system. It then proposes an innovative methodology for simulating the effects of a new system of equalization transfers. The main finding is that implementing this new system would help to consolidate greater territorial fiscal homogeneity in Uruguay.","PeriodicalId":46450,"journal":{"name":"Cepal Review","volume":"2019 1","pages":"197-220"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45440253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper employs a vector error correction methodology to investigate the long-term determinants of consumer goods inflation and industrial growth in Mexico during the 2001–2016 period. This is underpinned by a aggregate demand-aggregate supply model that brings new explanatory variables into play and keeps a priori restrictions on the data to a minimum. The evidence shows that cost-push and demand-pull inflation are both present and reveals the variables at work in each case. This study fills a gap in the empirical literature by showing that labour productivity not only spurs industrial growth, but also lowers consumer goods inflation in the long run. The policy implication of this finding is important given the need to attain faster economic growth without sacrificing price stability.
{"title":"Industrial growth and consumer goods inflation in Mexico: An econometric analysis","authors":"V. Cuevas, C. Villarreal","doi":"10.18356/c613c848-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/c613c848-en","url":null,"abstract":"This paper employs a vector error correction methodology to investigate the long-term determinants of consumer goods inflation and industrial growth in Mexico during the 2001–2016 period. This is underpinned by a aggregate demand-aggregate supply model that brings new explanatory variables into play and keeps a priori restrictions on the data to a minimum. The evidence shows that cost-push and demand-pull inflation are both present and reveals the variables at work in each case. This study fills a gap in the empirical literature by showing that labour productivity not only spurs industrial growth, but also lowers consumer goods inflation in the long run. The policy implication of this finding is important given the need to attain faster economic growth without sacrificing price stability.","PeriodicalId":46450,"journal":{"name":"Cepal Review","volume":"2019 1","pages":"175-196"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45857437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study simulates the social and economic effects of introducing reverse mortgages in Chile. It uses the 2009 Social Protection Survey and recent simulation methodologies to analyse the monetary gain associated with taking out such a loan, which is paid in periodic instalments over the homeowner’s lifetime. Eligible individuals are retired homeowners, who account for 70% of the older population. Monies received increase exponentially depending on the age at which the reverse mortgage is taken out. Lastly, the increase in liquidity has significant social potential, as it could reduce the poverty rate in the target group by 15%.
{"title":"The social and economic effects of introducing reverse mortgages in Chile","authors":"José L. Ruiz, Pablo Tapia, J. Donoso","doi":"10.18356/af94f300-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/af94f300-en","url":null,"abstract":"This study simulates the social and economic effects of introducing reverse mortgages in Chile. It uses the 2009 Social Protection Survey and recent simulation methodologies to analyse the monetary gain associated with taking out such a loan, which is paid in periodic instalments over the homeowner’s lifetime. Eligible individuals are retired homeowners, who account for 70% of the older population. Monies received increase exponentially depending on the age at which the reverse mortgage is taken out. Lastly, the increase in liquidity has significant social potential, as it could reduce the poverty rate in the target group by 15%.","PeriodicalId":46450,"journal":{"name":"Cepal Review","volume":"2019 1","pages":"221-244"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45435025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Argentine economy has been becoming greener because of a new political orientation, international commitments (the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development) and private sector initiatives. This transition is having economic and social impacts. The aim of the present article is to determine the potential of the economy to create green jobs that protect workers and the environment. In 2015, 7% of formal jobs were green and presented better average employment conditions than the rest. They were predominantly in goods production and the provision of urban services, such as sanitation and transport. Regulations and public policies seem to be the main factors driving green job creation, with consumption still playing a minor role. For the transition to a green economy to be fair, policies must take account of the employment dimension in order to initiate a virtuous circle leading to a more productive, inclusive and environmentally friendly economy.
{"title":"Green jobs in Argentina: opportunities to move forward with the environmental and social agenda","authors":"Christoph Ernst, S. Brizuela, Daniele Epifanio","doi":"10.18356/280a25aa-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/280a25aa-en","url":null,"abstract":"The Argentine economy has been becoming greener because of a new political orientation, international commitments (the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development) and private sector initiatives. This transition is having economic and social impacts. The aim of the present article is to determine the potential of the economy to create green jobs that protect workers and the environment. In 2015, 7% of formal jobs were green and presented better average employment conditions than the rest. They were predominantly in goods production and the provision of urban services, such as sanitation and transport. Regulations and public policies seem to be the main factors driving green job creation, with consumption still playing a minor role. For the transition to a green economy to be fair, policies must take account of the employment dimension in order to initiate a virtuous circle leading to a more productive, inclusive and environmentally friendly economy.","PeriodicalId":46450,"journal":{"name":"Cepal Review","volume":"2019 1","pages":"51-71"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43412483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper identifies the determinants of per capita gross value added (GVA) growth in Ecuador during the 2007–2015 period, using a spatial extension of the Mankiw, Romer and Weil (MRW) model. Because as a country Ecuador is characterized by deep territorial socioeconomic imbalances, estimates using classical techniques that measure average or “global” effects would not be as justifiable and would have limited political implications. Accordingly, this study uses a spatial filtering technique, which is a recent evolution of geographically weighted regression (GWR), to account for the spatial heterogeneity of the coefficients of a growth regression that explicitly considers both physical and human capital. The results show that Ecuadorian cantons have a wide range of convergence rates and that the effect of physical and human capital varies across space.
{"title":"Canton growth in Ecuador and the role of spatial heterogeneity","authors":"N. Pontarollo, Rodrigo Mendieta, D. Ontaneda","doi":"10.18356/abe89742-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/abe89742-en","url":null,"abstract":"This paper identifies the determinants of per capita gross value added (GVA) growth in Ecuador during the 2007–2015 period, using a spatial extension of the Mankiw, Romer and Weil (MRW) model. Because as a country Ecuador is characterized by deep territorial socioeconomic imbalances, estimates using classical techniques that measure average or “global” effects would not be as justifiable and would have limited political implications. Accordingly, this study uses a spatial filtering technique, which is a recent evolution of geographically weighted regression (GWR), to account for the spatial heterogeneity of the coefficients of a growth regression that explicitly considers both physical and human capital. The results show that Ecuadorian cantons have a wide range of convergence rates and that the effect of physical and human capital varies across space.","PeriodicalId":46450,"journal":{"name":"Cepal Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46785123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study sets out to obtain values for the income elasticities and inequality of poverty in urban and rural areas of the Brazilian states. A panel data methodology capable of capturing spatial effects via a spatial lag model is used to identify whether there are spatial spillovers of poverty in the census situations studied. Changes in growth and inequality lead to spatial spillovers in the proportion of poor people in Brazil’s urban areas, but this does not happen at all in rural areas. By demonstrating the existence of spatial spillovers in urban areas, the study shows that anti-poverty measures for these areas should be applied at the national level. In rural areas, the absence of spatial spillovers in the proportion of poor people means that public policies to combat rural poverty can be implemented at both state and national levels.
{"title":"Income elasticities and inequality of poverty in urban and rural areas of the Brazilian states: A spatial approach","authors":"H. G. Souza, F. J. S. Tabosa, J. A. Araújo","doi":"10.18356/986f19ed-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18356/986f19ed-en","url":null,"abstract":"This study sets out to obtain values for the income elasticities and inequality of poverty in urban and rural areas of the Brazilian states. A panel data methodology capable of capturing spatial effects via a spatial lag model is used to identify whether there are spatial spillovers of poverty in the census situations studied. Changes in growth and inequality lead to spatial spillovers in the proportion of poor people in Brazil’s urban areas, but this does not happen at all in rural areas. By demonstrating the existence of spatial spillovers in urban areas, the study shows that anti-poverty measures for these areas should be applied at the national level. In rural areas, the absence of spatial spillovers in the proportion of poor people means that public policies to combat rural poverty can be implemented at both state and national levels.","PeriodicalId":46450,"journal":{"name":"Cepal Review","volume":"2019 1","pages":"73-90"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49225252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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