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From the Editor: Belated Recognition for the 2021 Clemen–Kleinmuntz Decision Analysis Best Paper Award Winner and Finalist 来自编辑:对2021年克莱门-克莱蒙茨决策分析最佳论文奖得主和决赛选手的迟来的认可
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-05-09 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0477
V. Bier
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引用次数: 0
From the Editor and Chair of the Award Committee: 2022 Clemen–Kleinmuntz Decision Analysis Best Paper Award 来自编辑和奖项委员会主席:2022年克莱门-克莱蒙茨决策分析最佳论文奖
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-05-09 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0476
V. Bier, G. Montibeller
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引用次数: 0
A Decision Theoretic Foundation for Noise Traders and Correlated Speculation 噪声交易者与相关投机的决策理论基础
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0473
Mark Schneider, M. Nunez
Noise traders are a central idea in the modern theory of asset markets, yet there is not a standard model of such agents in contrast to the well-established representation of rational agents as expected utility maximizers. We propose the Hurwicz criterion, a classical criterion in decision analysis for choice under uncertainty, as a foundation for noise traders in asset markets. Hurwicz agents trade on optimism and pessimism and do not trade on information. A binary asset market is introduced with asymmetric information and heterogeneity both in rationality and in ambiguity attitudes. In this environment, noise trader behavior is endogenously positively correlated, the market is more efficient in low sentiment periods, and the favorite-longshot bias holds in equilibrium. The analysis demonstrates that aggregate market properties such as positive trading volume and the favorite longshot bias can be derived from the micro behavior of individual agents that have an axiomatic foundation.
噪音交易者是现代资产市场理论的核心思想,然而,与理性行为者作为预期效用最大化者的既定表现相比,并没有一个标准模型来描述这些行为者。本文提出了不确定性决策分析中的经典准则——赫维奇准则,作为资产市场噪声交易者的基础。赫维奇经纪人根据乐观和悲观进行交易,不根据信息进行交易。引入了具有信息不对称和异质性的二元资产市场。在这种环境下,噪音交易者的行为是内生性正相关的,市场在情绪低迷时期效率更高,偏好长线偏好在均衡状态下保持不变。分析表明,总体市场属性,如正交易量和最喜欢的长线偏好,可以从具有公理基础的个体代理的微观行为中得出。
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引用次数: 0
From the Editors: New Decision Analysis Journal Submission Requirements 来自编辑:新的决策分析期刊投稿要求
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-04-20 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0475
V. Bier, S. French
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引用次数: 0
A Simplified Method for Value of Information Using Constructed Scales 一种利用构造尺度计算信息价值的简化方法
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0474
The value of information is a central concept in decision analysis, used to quantify how much the expected outcome of a decision would be improved if epistemic uncertainty could be resolved prior to committing to a course of action. One of the challenges, however, in quantitative analysis of the value of information is that the calculations are demanding, especially in requiring predictions of outcomes as a function of alternative actions and sources of uncertainty. However, the concept of value of information is important in early framing of some decisions, before such predictions are available. We propose a novel measure of the value of information based on constructed scales (CVOI), grounded in the algebra of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), but requiring less of experts and analysts. The CVOI calculation decomposes EVPI into a contribution representing the relevance of the uncertainty to the decision and a contribution representing the magnitude of uncertainty; constructed ratio scales are then proposed for each contribution. We demonstrate the use of CVOI to identify research priorities related to migratory bird management in the face of climate change. Funding: This work was funded in part by the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center.
信息的价值是决策分析中的一个核心概念,用于量化如果在采取行动之前能够解决认知不确定性,那么决策的预期结果将得到多少改善。然而,对信息价值进行定量分析的挑战之一是计算要求很高,特别是需要预测作为备选行动和不确定性来源的函数的结果。然而,信息价值的概念在一些决策的早期框架中很重要,在这些预测可用之前。我们提出了一种基于构造尺度(CVOI)的信息价值度量方法,该方法基于完美信息期望值(EVPI)的代数,但对专家和分析人员的要求较低。CVOI计算将EVPI分解为表示不确定性与决策相关性的贡献和表示不确定性大小的贡献;然后为每项贡献提出构建的比例量表。我们展示了使用CVOI来确定面对气候变化的候鸟管理相关的研究重点。资助:本研究部分由美国地质调查局国家气候适应科学中心资助。
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引用次数: 2
Using Decision Analysis to Determine the Feasibility of a Conservation Translocation 用决策分析确定保护易位的可行性
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0472
Laura M. Keating, L. Randall, R. Stanton, Casey McCormack, M. Lucid, T. Seaborn, S. Converse, S. Canessa, A. Moehrenschlager
Conservation translocations, intentional movements of species to protect against extinction, have become widespread in recent decades and are projected to increase further as biodiversity loss continues worldwide. The literature abounds with analyses to inform translocations and assess whether they are successful, but the fundamental question of whether they should be initiated at all is rarely addressed formally. We used decision analysis to assess northern leopard frog reintroduction in northern Idaho, with success defined as a population that persists for at least 50 years. The Idaho Department of Fish and Game was the decision maker (i.e., the agency that will use this assessment to inform their decisions). Stakeholders from government, indigenous groups, academia, land management agencies, and conservation organizations also participated. We built an age-structured population model to predict how management alternatives would affect probability of success. In the model, we explicitly represented epistemic uncertainty around a success criterion (probability of persistence) characterized by aleatory uncertainty. For the leading alternative, the mean probability of persistence was 40%. The distribution of the modelling results was bimodal, with most parameter combinations resulting in either very low (<5%) or relatively high (>95%) probabilities of success. Along with other considerations, including cost, the Idaho Department of Fish and Game will use this assessment to inform a decision regarding reintroduction of northern leopard frogs. Conservation translocations may benefit greatly from more widespread use of decision analysis to counter the complexity and uncertainty inherent in these decisions. History: This paper has been accepted for the Decision Analysis Special Issue on Further Environmental Sustainability. Funding: This work was supported by the Wilder Institute/Calgary Zoo, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [Grant F18AS00095], the NSF Idaho EPSCoR Program and the National Science Foundation [Grant OIA-1757324], and the Hunt Family Foundation. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0472 .
近几十年来,保护易位,即为防止物种灭绝而有意移动的物种,已经变得普遍,并且随着世界范围内生物多样性的继续丧失,预计将进一步增加。文献中有大量的分析来为易位提供信息并评估它们是否成功,但它们是否应该启动的基本问题很少得到正式解决。我们使用决策分析来评估在爱达荷州北部重新引入北方豹蛙,成功定义为种群持续至少50年。爱达荷州渔猎部是决策者(也就是说,该机构将使用该评估来告知他们的决定)。来自政府、土著群体、学术界、土地管理机构和保护组织的利益相关者也参加了会议。我们建立了一个年龄结构的人口模型来预测管理方案如何影响成功的概率。在模型中,我们明确地表示了围绕一个以选择性不确定性为特征的成功标准(持续概率)的认知不确定性。对于领先的替代方案,持续的平均概率为40%。建模结果的分布是双峰的,大多数参数组合导致成功概率非常低(95%)。考虑到其他因素,包括成本,爱达荷州渔猎局将利用这一评估来决定是否重新引入北方豹蛙。更广泛地使用决策分析来对抗这些决策中固有的复杂性和不确定性,可能会极大地受益于保护易位。历史:本文已被《进一步环境可持续性决策分析特刊》接受。资助:这项工作得到了怀尔德研究所/卡尔加里动物园,美国鱼类和野生动物管理局[Grant F18AS00095],美国国家科学基金会爱达荷州EPSCoR计划和国家科学基金会[Grant OIA-1757324]以及亨特家庭基金会的支持。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0472上获得。
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引用次数: 1
Experimental Assessment of Utility Functions Induced by Fixed and Uncertain Targets 固定目标与不确定目标诱导效用函数的实验评估
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0470
M. Zellner, A. Abbas
This paper presents the results of four lottery-type experiments that investigate the effects of incentive structures on decision-making under uncertainty. We compare choices made with and without incentives, with fixed targets, with binary targets, and with four-outcome targets that are discretized from a logistic distribution. The results of the behavioral experiments (i) validate theoretical findings of utility functions induced by fixed and uncertain targets. Further, the behavioral results show that (ii) individuals’ choices are indeed affected by incentive structures, which we quantify by several deviation measures. (iii) Defined consistency measures show that choices under uncertain targets become less consistent as the number of uncertain target outcomes increases. The results of these experiments provide insights into the effects of setting incentive structures on decision-making behavior.
本文介绍了四个彩票型实验的结果,研究了不确定性下激励结构对决策的影响。我们比较了在有激励和没有激励的情况下做出的选择,有固定目标的选择,有二元目标的选择,有从逻辑分布离散化的四结果目标的选择。行为实验的结果(1)验证了固定目标和不确定目标诱导的效用函数的理论发现。此外,行为结果表明:(ii)个体的选择确实受到激励结构的影响,我们通过几个偏差度量来量化激励结构。(iii)定义的一致性度量表明,不确定目标下的选择随着不确定目标结果数量的增加而变得不那么一致。这些实验的结果为建立激励结构对决策行为的影响提供了见解。
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引用次数: 0
First Price Sealed-Bid Auctions with Bidders’ Heterogeneous Risk Behavior: An Adversarial Risk Analysis Approach 基于竞价人异质风险行为的首价密封拍卖:一种对抗风险分析方法
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-03-07 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0469
Muhammad Ejaz, Nisho Rani, Dr Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh
Bidders’ bidding behavior is analyzed in first price sealed-bid (FPSB) auctions using an adversarial risk analysis (ARA) framework. However, using nonstrategic play and level-k thinking solution concepts, modeling is performed by assuming only two bidders. Also, the aleatory and concept uncertainties have not been yet taken into account by using an ARA framework for these auctions. In this paper, we apply an ARA approach to model bidders’ bidding behavior in a more realistic way for FPSB auctions. We assume n bidders that may have different wealth and heterogeneous risk behaviors. We use nonstrategic play and level-k thinking solution concepts, and we take into account aleatory uncertainty in addition to epistemic uncertainty. Finally, concept uncertainty is taken into account to find ARA solutions for these auctions. We also provide numerical examples to illustrate our methodology.
采用对抗风险分析(ARA)框架分析了首价密封投标(FPSB)拍卖中竞标者的投标行为。然而,使用非战略玩法和k级思维解决方案概念,建模是通过假设只有两个竞标者来执行的。此外,在使用ARA框架进行这些拍卖时,还没有考虑到选择性和概念上的不确定性。本文采用ARA方法对FPSB拍卖中竞标者的投标行为进行了更现实的建模。我们假设n个投标人可能有不同的财富和异质风险行为。我们使用非策略玩法和k级思维解决方案概念,除了认知不确定性之外,我们还考虑了选择性不确定性。最后,考虑概念不确定性,为这些拍卖寻找ARA解决方案。我们还提供了数值例子来说明我们的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Closing the Gap Between Decision Analysis and Policy Analysts Before the Next Pandemic 在下一次大流行之前缩小决策分析和政策分析师之间的差距
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0468
R. Dillon, V. Bier, R. S. John, Abdullah Althenayyan
Decision analysis (DA) is an explicitly prescriptive discipline that separates beliefs about uncertainties from value preferences in modeling to support decision making. Researchers have been advancing DA tools for the last 60 years to support decision makers handling complex decisions requiring subjective judgments. Recently, some DA researchers and practitioners wondered whether the difficult decisions made during the COVID-19 pandemic regarding testing, masking, closing and reopening businesses, allocating ventilators, and prioritizing vaccines would have been improved with more DA involvement. With its focus on quantifying uncertainties, value trade-offs, and risk attitudes, DA should have been a valuable tool for decision makers during the pandemic. To influence decisions, DA applications require interactions with policymakers and experts to construct formal representations of the decision frame, elicit uncertainties, and assess risk tolerances and trade-offs among competing objectives. Unfortunately, such involvement of decision analysts in the process of decision making and policy setting did not occur during much of the COVID-19 pandemic. This lack of participation may have been partly because many decision makers were unaware of when DA could be valuable in helping with the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, decision analysts were perhaps not sufficiently adept at inserting themselves into the policy process at critical junctures when their expertise could have been helpful. Funding: This research was partially supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security through the Center for Accelerating Operational Efficiency at Arizona State University.
决策分析(DA)是一门明确的规定性学科,它将建模中的不确定性与价值偏好分离开来,以支持决策制定。在过去的60年里,研究人员一直在推进数据分析工具,以支持决策者处理需要主观判断的复杂决策。最近,一些DA研究人员和从业人员想知道,如果DA更多地参与,在COVID-19大流行期间做出的关于检测、遮盖、关闭和重新开放企业、分配呼吸机和优先接种疫苗的艰难决定是否会得到改善。发展评估侧重于量化不确定性、价值权衡和风险态度,本应成为大流行期间决策者的宝贵工具。为了影响决策,数据分析应用程序需要与决策者和专家进行交互,以构建决策框架的正式表示,引出不确定性,并评估风险容忍度和竞争目标之间的权衡。不幸的是,在COVID-19大流行期间,决策分析人员在决策和政策制定过程中的这种参与并没有发生。缺乏参与的部分原因可能是许多决策者不知道发展援助何时可以在帮助应对COVID-19大流行挑战方面发挥重要作用。此外,决策分析人员也许不善于在他们的专门知识可能有所帮助的关键时刻参与政策过程。资助:本研究部分由美国国土安全部通过亚利桑那州立大学加速运营效率中心提供支持。
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引用次数: 2
Interdicting Attack Plans with Boundedly Rational Players and Multiple Attackers: An Adversarial Risk Analysis Approach 具有有限理性参与者和多个攻击者的拦截攻击计划:一种对抗风险分析方法
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-02-03 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0471
Eric B. DuBois, Ashley Peper, Laura A. Albert
Cybersecurity planning supports the selection of and implementation of security controls in resource-constrained settings to manage risk. Doing so requires considering adaptive adversaries with different levels of strategic sophistication in modeling efforts to support risk management. However, most models in the literature only consider rational or nonstrategic adversaries. Therefore, we study how to inform defensive decision making to mitigate the risk from boundedly rational players, with a particular focus on making integrated, interdependent planning decisions. To achieve this goal, we introduce a modeling framework for selecting a portfolio of security mitigations that interdict adversarial attack plans that uses a structured approach for risk analysis. Our approach adapts adversarial risk analysis and cognitive hierarchy theory to consider a maximum-reliability path interdiction problem with a single defender and multiple attackers who have different goals and levels of strategic sophistication. Instead of enumerating all possible attacks and defenses, we introduce a solution technique based on integer programming and approximation algorithms to iteratively solve the defender’s and attackers’ problems. A case study illustrates the proposed models and provides insights into defensive planning. Funding: A. Peper and L. A. Albert were supported in part by the National Science Foundation [Grant 2000986].
网络安全规划支持在资源受限的环境中选择和实施安全控制措施,以管理风险。这样做需要在建模工作中考虑具有不同战略成熟度级别的自适应对手,以支持风险管理。然而,文献中的大多数模型只考虑理性的或非战略性的对手。因此,我们研究如何为防御性决策提供信息,以减轻有限理性参与者的风险,并特别关注制定综合的、相互依赖的规划决策。为了实现这一目标,我们引入了一个建模框架,用于选择一组安全缓解措施,以阻止使用结构化方法进行风险分析的对抗性攻击计划。我们的方法采用对抗风险分析和认知层次理论来考虑具有不同目标和战略复杂程度的单个防御者和多个攻击者的最大可靠性路径拦截问题。我们不是列举所有可能的攻击和防御,而是引入一种基于整数规划和近似算法的求解技术来迭代解决防御者和攻击者的问题。一个案例研究说明了所提出的模型,并提供了对防御计划的见解。资助:A. Peper和L. A. Albert得到了美国国家科学基金会的部分支持[Grant 2000986]。
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引用次数: 1
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Decision Analysis
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