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The Discount Rate for Investment Analysis Applying Expected Utility 应用预期效用的投资分析贴现率
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2022.0059
Manel Baucells, Samuel E. Bodily
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
决策分析》,提前出版。
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引用次数: 0
How to Control Waste Incineration Pollution? Cost-Sharing or Penalty Mechanism—Based on Two Differential Game Models 如何控制垃圾焚烧污染?基于两种差异博弈模型的成本分担或惩罚机制
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0078
Huijie Li, Deqing Tan
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
决策分析》,提前出版。
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引用次数: 0
Decision Analysis to Advance Environmental Sustainability 决策分析促进环境可持续性
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.intro.v20.n4
Kelly F. Robinson, Erin Baker, Elizabeth Ewing, Victoria Hemming, Melissa A. Kenney, Michael C. Runge
Decision Analysis, Volume 20, Issue 4, Page 243-251, December 2023.
决策分析》,第 20 卷第 4 期,第 243-251 页,2023 年 12 月。
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引用次数: 0
Appreciation to Referees, 2023 感谢裁判,2023
4区 管理学 Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.reviewthx.v20.n4
Vicki Bier, the Editor-in-Chief of Decision Analysis, thanks the referees who generously provide expert counsel and guidance on a voluntary basis. Without them, the journal could not function. The following list acknowledges those individuals who acted as referees for papers considered during calendar year 2023.
Vicki Bier, Decision Analysis的主编,感谢那些在自愿的基础上慷慨地提供专家咨询和指导的推荐人。没有他们,杂志就无法运作。以下名单确认在2023日历年期间担任论文评审的个人。
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引用次数: 0
Hide-and-Seek Game with Capacitated Locations and Imperfect Detection 有容量位置和不完全检测的捉迷藏游戏
4区 管理学 Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-25 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0012
Bastián Bahamondes, Mathieu Dahan
We consider a variant of the hide-and-seek game in which a seeker inspects multiple hiding locations to find multiple items hidden by a hider. Each hiding location has a maximum hiding capacity and a probability of detecting its hidden items when an inspection by the seeker takes place. The objective of the seeker (respectively, hider) is to minimize (respectively, maximize) the expected number of undetected items. This model is motivated by strategic inspection problems, where a security agency is tasked with coordinating multiple inspection resources to detect and seize illegal commodities hidden by a criminal organization. To solve this large-scale zero-sum game, we leverage its structure and show that its mixed-strategy Nash equilibria can be characterized using their unidimensional marginal distributions, which are pure equilibria of a lower dimensional continuous zero-sum game. This leads to a two-step approach for efficiently solving our hide-and-seek game: First, we analytically solve the continuous game and derive closed-form expressions of the equilibrium marginal distributions. Second, we design a combinatorial algorithm to coordinate the players’ resources and compute equilibrium mixed strategies that satisfy the marginal distributions. We show that this solution approach computes a Nash equilibrium of the hide-and-seek game in quadratic time with linear support. Our analysis reveals novel equilibrium behaviors driven by a complex interplay between the game parameters, captured by our closed-form solutions. Funding: This work was supported by the Georgia Tech Stewart Fellowship and the Georgia Tech New Faculty Start Up Grant [for Georgia Tech New Faculty Start Up Grant]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0012 .
我们考虑的是捉迷藏游戏的一种变体,在这种游戏中,寻道者检查多个隐藏地点,以找到寻道者隐藏的多个物品。每个隐藏位置都有一个最大的隐藏容量和一个被搜索者检查时发现其隐藏物品的概率。搜索者(分别是隐藏者)的目标是最小化(分别是最大化)未被探测到的物品的预期数量。这种模式的动机是战略检查问题,其中安全机构的任务是协调多种检查资源,以发现和没收犯罪组织隐藏的非法商品。为了求解这种大规模的零和博弈,我们利用了它的结构,并证明了它的混合策略纳什均衡可以用它们的一维边际分布来表征,这是一个低维连续零和博弈的纯均衡。这导致了有效解决捉迷藏博弈的两步方法:首先,我们解析求解连续博弈并推导出均衡边际分布的封闭形式表达式。其次,我们设计了一种组合算法来协调参与者的资源,并计算满足边际分布的均衡混合策略。我们证明了这种求解方法在线性支持的二次时间内计算了捉迷藏博弈的纳什均衡。我们的分析揭示了由游戏参数之间复杂的相互作用所驱动的新的平衡行为,并被我们的封闭形式的解决方案所捕获。资金:这项工作得到了乔治亚理工学院斯图尔特奖学金和乔治亚理工学院新教师启动补助金的支持。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0012上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Lessons Learned in Applying Decision Analysis to Natural Resource Management for High-Stakes Issues Surrounded by Uncertainty 将决策分析应用于不确定环境下高风险自然资源管理的经验教训
4区 管理学 Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0015
Kelly F. Robinson, Mark R. DuFour, Jason L. Fischer, Seth J. Herbst, Michael L. Jones, Lucas R. Nathan, Tammy J. Newcomb
Management agencies are tasked with difficult decisions for conservation and management of natural resources. These decisions are difficult because of ecological and social uncertainties, the potential for multiple decision makers from multiple jurisdictions, and the need to account for the diverse values of stakeholders. Decision analysis provides a framework for accounting for these difficulties when making conservation and management decisions. We discuss the benefits of the application of decision analysis for these types of issues and provide insights from three case studies from the Laurentian Great Lakes. These case studies describe applications of decision analysis for decisions within an agency (management of double-crested cormorant), among agencies (response to invasive grass carp), and among agencies and stakeholders (sustainable fisheries harvest management). These case studies provide insight into the ways that decision analysis can be useful for conservation and management of natural resources, but we also highlight future needs for decision making for these resources. In particular, applications of decision analysis for conservation and management would benefit from enhanced integration of both ecological and social science, inclusion of a broader base of stakeholders and rightsholders, and better educational opportunities surrounding decision analysis for undergraduates and graduate students of natural resources management programs. Specific lessons from our experiences include the importance of establishing trust and transparency early through the formation of a working group, collaboratively defining objectives and evaluating uncertainties, risks, and tradeoffs, and implementing participatory modeling processes with an independent facilitator with appropriate quantitative skills. History: This paper has been accepted for the Decision Analysis Special Issue on Further Environmental Sustainability. Funding: This study was supported by Great Lakes Restoration Initiative funding provided to the Michigan Department of Natural Resources [Grant F16AP01094] from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and sub-awarded to Michigan State University.
管理机构肩负着保护和管理自然资源的艰难决策。由于生态和社会的不确定性,可能存在来自多个司法管辖区的多个决策者,以及需要考虑利益相关者的不同价值观,这些决策很困难。决策分析为在作出保护和管理决策时考虑这些困难提供了一个框架。我们讨论了在这些类型的问题中应用决策分析的好处,并提供了来自劳伦森五大湖的三个案例研究的见解。这些案例研究描述了决策分析在机构内(管理双冠鸬鹚)、机构间(应对入侵草鱼)以及机构和利益相关者(可持续渔业收获管理)决策中的应用。这些案例研究提供了决策分析对自然资源保护和管理有用的方式的见解,但我们也强调了这些资源决策的未来需求。特别是,决策分析在保护和管理方面的应用将受益于生态科学和社会科学的加强整合,包括更广泛的利益相关者和权利所有者基础,以及为自然资源管理专业的本科生和研究生提供更好的决策分析教育机会。从我们的经验中得到的具体教训包括,通过组建工作组,协作定义目标并评估不确定性、风险和权衡,以及与具有适当定量技能的独立推动者一起实施参与性建模过程,从而尽早建立信任和透明度的重要性。历史:本文已被《进一步环境可持续性决策分析特刊》接受。资助:本研究由美国鱼类和野生动物管理局向密歇根州自然资源部提供的大湖恢复倡议基金(Grant F16AP01094)支持,并分授予密歇根州立大学。
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引用次数: 0
Eliciting Informative Priors by Modeling Expert Decision Making 通过建模专家决策来获取信息先验
4区 管理学 Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0046
Julia R. Falconer, Eibe Frank, Devon L. L. Polaschek, Chaitanya Joshi
There are significant limitations to current methods for eliciting the prior beliefs of experts. To combat some of these limitations, this paper proposes an alternative approach that infers an expert’s prior beliefs about an uncertain event, A, from the expert’s past decisions. We show that an analyst can use past information on an expert’s decision-making task, contingent on an expert’s prior of A, to model the decision-making process and infer an approximation of the prior for A. This concept is illustrated by an application to recidivism. We conclude this work by highlighting important directions for future research. Funding: J. R. Falconer’s research is funded through the University of Waikato Doctoral Scholarship.
目前用于引出专家的先验信念的方法有很大的局限性。为了克服这些限制,本文提出了一种替代方法,即从专家过去的决策中推断专家对不确定事件A的先验信念。我们表明,分析师可以利用专家决策任务的过去信息,根据专家对A的先验,对决策过程进行建模,并推断出A的先验近似值。最后,我们强调了未来研究的重要方向。资助:j.r. Falconer的研究由怀卡托大学博士奖学金资助。
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引用次数: 0
Prioritization of Species Status Assessments for Decision Support 基于决策支持的物种状况评估优先级
4区 管理学 Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0026
Ashley B. C. Goode, Erin Rivenbark, Jessica A. Gilbert, Conor P. McGowan
Species status assessments are used to inform U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) decision making for Endangered Species Act (ESA) classification decisions, recovery planning, and more. The large number of species that require assessment and uncertainty in the data available impede the process of assigning and completing the assessments, which makes creating a multiyear work plan extremely difficult. An optimized triaging system that maximizes the use of the best available information while managing the complex ESA workload and meeting deadlines is necessary. We used a structured decision-making framework to approach the problem with the goal of creating a prioritization tool that would be effective at scheduling assessments, given the best information available and priorities of the USFWS. We collected data on the species awaiting assessment and developed a value function that incorporates existing deadlines, taxonomic uncertainty, controversy of the species, and population and habitat data availability and quality. We used a constrained linear optimization algorithm to maximize the value function and ensure that workload capacity was not exceeded. A comparison of model scenarios indicates that imposed deadlines impact the model more than capacity constraints. Additionally, differential weighting of the metrics significantly affected the outcome of the model. In the future, elicitation of metric weights should be done routinely before the model is run for use in official planning to ensure alignment with current USFWS priorities. Output from this optimization can be used to inform a five-year work plan, allocate resources, and discuss workforce decisions. History: This paper has been accepted for the Decision Analysis Special Issue on Decision Analysis to Further Environmental Sustainability. Funding: This work was funded via an inter-agency agreement between the USFWS and the USGS and subsequently by a Research Work Order contract between the USGS and the University of Florida [Grant G21AC00016].
物种状态评估用于为美国鱼类和野生动物管理局(USFWS)制定濒危物种法案(ESA)分类决策、恢复计划等决策提供信息。需要评估的物种数量众多,现有数据的不确定性阻碍了分配和完成评估的过程,这使得制定多年工作计划极其困难。有必要建立一个优化的分诊系统,在管理复杂的欧空局工作量和按时完成任务的同时,最大限度地利用最佳可用信息。我们使用了一个结构化的决策框架来处理这个问题,目标是创建一个优先排序工具,该工具将有效地安排评估,给出最佳的可用信息和USFWS的优先级。我们收集了待评估物种的数据,并开发了一个包含现有截止日期、分类不确定性、物种争议、种群和栖息地数据可用性和质量的价值函数。我们使用约束线性优化算法来最大化值函数,并确保不超过工作负载容量。模型场景的比较表明,强加的最后期限比容量限制对模型的影响更大。此外,指标的不同权重显著影响模型的结果。在未来,在正式计划中使用模型之前,应该常规地进行公制权重的提取,以确保与当前USFWS的优先级保持一致。此优化的输出可用于通知五年工作计划、分配资源和讨论劳动力决策。历史:本文已被《决策分析》特刊《决策分析促进环境可持续性》接受。经费:这项工作由USFWS和USGS之间的机构间协议资助,随后由USGS和佛罗里达大学之间的研究工作订单合同资助[Grant G21AC00016]。
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引用次数: 0
Partitioning the Expected Value of Countermeasures with an Application to Terrorism 反制措施期望值的划分及其在恐怖主义中的应用
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0011
R. S. John, Robin L. Dillon, William J. Burns, Nicholas Scurich
Benefit–cost analyses are critical to support U.S. agencies’ programmatic decision making. These analyses are particularly challenging when one of the benefits is adversary deterrence. This paper presents a framework for calculating the value of deterrence related to countermeasures implemented to mitigate an attack by an adaptive adversary. We offer an approach for partitioning the benefit of countermeasures into three components: (1) threat reduction (deterrence), (2) vulnerability reduction, and (3) consequence mitigation. The benefit of a countermeasure is measured by the expected value of countermeasure implementation (EVCI) attributable to a specific countermeasure. It is based on the concept of expected value of imperfect control, defined as the difference in the expected values of alternatives with and without countermeasures. The EVCI represents all the benefits of implementing the countermeasure and is derived from three sources: (1) changes in attack probability (threat reduction from deterrence), (2) changes in detection probability (vulnerability reduction), and (3) changes in the distribution of attack outcomes (consequence mitigation). We partition the EVCI and estimate the portion attributable to each of these three sources to quantify the unique benefit of each. We provide two applications of the partitioning methodology using examples from the published literature that examine countermeasures designed to protect commercial aircraft against man-portable air defense systems. The proposed framework provides an approach for explicitly accounting separately for deterrence, vulnerability reduction, and consequence mitigation in benefit–cost analyses. It provides quantifiable insights into how countermeasures reduce terrorism risk. Funding: This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under [Grant Award 22STESE00001-02-00]. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. This award was made to Northeastern University and the University of Southern California is a sub-awardee. This work was also supported by the National Science Foundation [Grant 2027296] awarded to Decision Research.
效益成本分析对于支持美国机构的规划决策至关重要。当其中一个好处是威慑对手时,这些分析尤其具有挑战性。本文提出了一个框架,用于计算为减轻自适应对手的攻击而实施的与对策相关的威慑价值。我们提供了一种方法,将对策的好处分为三个部分:(1)减少威胁(威慑),(2)减少脆弱性,和(3)减轻后果。对策的效益是由特定对策的对策实施期望值(EVCI)来衡量的。它基于不完全控制期望值的概念,定义为有对策和没有对策的备选方案期望值的差异。EVCI代表了实施对策的所有好处,并从三个方面得出:(1)攻击概率的变化(威慑减少威胁),(2)检测概率的变化(漏洞减少),以及(3)攻击结果分布的变化(后果减轻)。我们划分EVCI,并估计归因于这三个来源的部分,以量化每个来源的独特效益。我们使用已发表的文献中的例子提供了分区方法的两种应用,这些文献研究了旨在保护商用飞机免受单兵便携式防空系统攻击的对策。拟议的框架提供了一种在效益-成本分析中分别明确核算威慑、减少脆弱性和减轻后果的方法。它为对策如何降低恐怖主义风险提供了可量化的见解。资助:本材料基于美国国土安全部[资助奖22STESE00001-02-00]支持的工作。本文件中包含的观点和结论是作者的观点和结论,不应被解释为一定代表美国国土安全部的官方政策,无论是明示的还是暗示的。该奖项授予了东北大学,南加州大学是次获奖者。这项工作也得到了国家科学基金会[Grant 2027296]的支持,授予决策研究。
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引用次数: 0
Assortment Planning with Satisficing Customers 顾客满意的分类计划
IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-18 DOI: 10.1287/deca.2022.0063
Forough Pourhossein, W. T. Huh, Steven M. Shechter
Limited information, time, or capacity may prevent customers from acting as utility maximizers when making purchase decisions. Rather, they would settle for a good enough option; that is, they stop searching and make a purchase as soon as they find an acceptable alternative. We incorporate this behavior in an assortment-optimization problem. Whereas different approaches to modeling customer choice are adopted in assortment planning, all assume customers are utility maximizers. Our work bridges the research streams of assortment planning and bounded rationality, particularly satisficing behavior. In addition, we define a limit for the search budget of customers, in which customers leave without purchase after examining a certain number of items. This assumption brings a new perspective to the assortment-planning literature, enabling us to capture the choice-overload effect. We prove that the firm’s problem of finding the optimal assortment is NP-hard. We further establish certain structural properties of the optimal decision, which allows us to reformulate the model as a mixed-integer program. We analytically derive a tight upper bound on the percentage loss in the firm’s expected profit for small instances when it assumes incorrectly that customers are utility maximizers. For larger instances, we take a numerical approach to determine the loss. Our results indicate that firms offering low-involvement products, among those dealing with satisficing customers, are more likely to face substantial profit loss if they ignore this behavior. Supplemental Material: The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2022.0063 .
有限的信息、时间或能力可能会阻止客户在做出购买决策时发挥效用最大化的作用。相反,他们会满足于一个足够好的选择;也就是说,一旦找到可接受的替代品,他们就会停止搜索并进行购买。我们将这种行为合并到分类优化问题中。尽管在分类规划中采用了不同的顾客选择建模方法,但都假设顾客是效用最大化者。我们的工作连接了分类计划和有限理性的研究流,特别是令人满意的行为。此外,我们为顾客的搜索预算定义了一个限制,即顾客在检查了一定数量的商品后不购买而离开。这一假设为分类规划文献带来了一个新的视角,使我们能够捕捉到选择过载效应。我们证明了企业寻找最优组合的问题是np困难的。我们进一步建立了最优决策的某些结构性质,使我们能够将模型重新表述为混合整数规划。在错误地假设顾客是效用最大化者的情况下,我们分析地得出了公司预期利润损失百分比的严格上限。对于较大的实例,我们采用数值方法来确定损失。我们的研究结果表明,在那些处理满意客户的公司中,提供低介入产品的公司,如果忽视这种行为,更有可能面临巨大的利润损失。补充材料:电子伴侣可在https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2022.0063上获得。
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引用次数: 0
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Decision Analysis
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