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An empirical study on the determinants of air trade – The case of South Korea and Chinese provinces 航空贸易影响因素的实证研究——以韩国和中国为例
IF 3.1 Q1 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.10.001
Xiu Jing Jiang , Yong Sik Oh

The air transportation industry is becoming an increasingly important growth factor for economic development as trade and logistics exchanges between South Korea and China continue to grow. The main objective of this article is to examine the factors that influence air trade between South Korea and 31 Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2019, with the aim of promoting the expansion of air trade between the two countries. The findings suggest that, with the exception of South Korea’s exports to the 31 Chinese provinces, the gross regional domestic product has a significantly positive effect. The effects of distance and personal income on total air trade, air imports and exports are notably negative and positive respectively. Furthermore, foreign direct investment has a positive impact only when South Korea exports to China. The study concludes that, enhancing the volume of air traffic between South Korea and China can be accomplished by directing investments towards inland areas that possess trade-potential, expanding airport infrastructure, and developing regional economic growth. Furthermore, it is suggested that emerging domestic markets should be under close observation due to the changes in the trade structure after the COVID 19.

随着韩国和中国之间的贸易和物流往来不断增加,航空运输业正在成为经济发展的重要增长因素。本文的主要目的是研究2010年至2019年影响韩国与中国31个省份之间航空贸易的因素,旨在促进两国航空贸易的扩大。研究结果表明,除韩国对中国31个省份的出口外,地区生产总值(gdp)对中国出口具有显著的正向影响。距离和个人收入对航空贸易总额、航空进出口的影响分别为显著的负向和正向。此外,只有在韩国向中国出口时,外国直接投资才会产生积极影响。该研究的结论是,通过将投资导向具有贸易潜力的内陆地区,扩大机场基础设施,促进区域经济增长,可以实现韩国和中国之间空中交通量的增加。此外,由于新型冠状病毒感染症(COVID - 19)后贸易结构的变化,有必要密切关注新兴市场。
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引用次数: 0
A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industry 韩国航运业新的景气周期指标
IF 3.1 Q1 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.10.002
Janghan Kwon , Sunghwa Park , Taeil Kim , Hanna Kim

The aim of this study is to construct monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the shipping industry in Korea. The coincident and the leading indicators are computed using the generalized dynamic factor model. We use the production index of the water transport industry as the reference variable and compute the coincident indicator based on the common component of eight economic indicators. The analysis shows that the Korean shipping industry went through four business cycles during the sample period from 2007M1 to 2021M5. The leading indicator provides early signals of turning points in business cycles with a high correlation. The results suggest that the business cycle indicators present in this study may be useful diagnostic tools for understanding the timely and frequent economic state of the Korean shipping industry and its likely development in the near future.

本研究的目的是建构韩国航运业的月度一致性和领先性综合指标。采用广义动态因子模型计算了符合指标和领先指标。以水运行业的生产指标为参考变量,根据8项经济指标的共同成分计算出符合指标。分析结果显示,韩国航运业在2007年1月至2021年5月的样本期内经历了4个景气周期。先行指标提供了商业周期转折点的早期信号,相关性很高。结果表明,本研究中的商业周期指标可能是了解韩国航运业及时和频繁的经济状况及其在不久的将来可能发展的有用诊断工具。
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引用次数: 0
Robust practices for managing maritime supply chain risks: A survey of Nigeria’s seaports 管理海上供应链风险的有力实践:对尼日利亚海港的调查
IF 3.1 Q1 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.09.001
John Nsikan , Rawlings Micheal , Ogbari Mercy , Ariyo Adebukola , Ine Briggs , Daniel Inegbedion

Managing risks is crucial for efficient and resilient maritime supply chain. For Nigeria’s seaports, the sources of supply chain risks and the best practices for managing them is yet to be sufficiently understood. This paper leveraged the experiences of 67 seaport operators, cargo owners, and shipping professionals in Nigeria to delineate the robust practices in managing supply chain risks. Data collection was via the structured questionnaire and analysed descriptively. Results identified nine main sources of seaport supply chain risks with congestion within port terminals ranked the highest. In addition, six practices were considered as robust for managing seaport supply chain risks: Developing risk feedback mechanism; frequent risk assessment; risk mitigation documentation; keeping records of disruption incidents; regular cargo status update; and better stakeholder relationship management. We recommend that increased level of investment in port digital technologies and regular capacity building in supply chain risk management could be provide the relevant intervention for resilient seaport operations in Nigeria.

管理风险对于高效和有弹性的海上供应链至关重要。对于尼日利亚的海港来说,供应链风险的来源和管理风险的最佳做法尚未得到充分了解。本文利用尼日利亚67个港口运营商、货主和航运专业人士的经验,描述了管理供应链风险的有力实践。通过结构化问卷收集数据并进行描述性分析。结果确定了海港供应链风险的九个主要来源,其中港口码头内的拥堵排名最高。此外,六个实践被认为是管理港口供应链风险的稳健做法:建立风险反馈机制;频繁的风险评估;风险缓解文件;保存中断事件的记录;定期更新货物状态;以及更好的利益相关者关系管理。我们建议,提高港口数字技术投资水平和供应链风险管理方面的定期能力建设,可以为尼日利亚的弹性海港运营提供相关干预措施。
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引用次数: 0
Seafarer market structure analysis of Korean merchant shipping in COVID-19 新冠疫情下韩国商船船员市场结构分析
IF 3.1 Q1 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.06.003
Yong An Park , Tsz Leung Yip , Sung Rye Hu , Hong Gyue Park

COVID-19 pandemic clearly demonstrates that seafarers are essential for sustaining world shipping services and global supply chain. Understanding the characteristics of supply and demand in seafarer market will be a solution for the bottleneck issues of seafarer change and shipping services. This paper explores the supply and demand of seafarer market in Korea and evaluates the effects of COVID-19 on both supply and demand sides of Korean seafarers by adopting regression models with panel data for the supply and time series data for the demand. First, this paper finds that the effects of COVID-19 are negative in the demand of Korean seafarer market even with the wider increase of tonnage of the Korean flagged ships in 2020. The demand shock seems to be resulted by the traveling restriction and stricter immigration measures to travellers after the announcement of COVID-19 pandemic. Second, supply in the regression models of panel data is affected negatively after declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic may trigger the hesitation of seafaring due to the travelling restriction and bottlenecks from seafarer changes onboard. Besides these findings, the correlation coefficients between the number of Korean seafarers of merchant ships and merchant fleet illustrate a diverse relationship between the two. The expansion of Korean ocean-going fleet is accompanied by the decrease of Korean seafarers on the Korean flag. The employment of foreign seafarers since 1992 has resulted in the continual decrease of ratings employment in the Korean flagged ships. The inflow of foreign deck officers in the Korean flagged ships after 2005 could lessen the officer deficiency caused by high separation rate of Korean deck officers. This inflow implies that seafarer market in a country not only affects global seafarer market in the world through the changes of seafarer supply and demand in the country, but is affected by the global market. The dual markets of Korean seafarers in ocean-going and coastal shipping present the following phenomena: severe aging of seafarers in coastal shipping and wider difference in welfare level of seafarers between the two. Further research on wage and career advancement of Korean seafarers would widen and deepen our understanding on seafarer market both for Korea and the rest of the world.

2019冠状病毒病大流行清楚地表明,海员对于维持世界航运服务和全球供应链至关重要。了解海员市场的供需特征,将是解决海员变动与航运服务瓶颈问题的关键。本文探讨了韩国海员市场的供求关系,并采用面板数据的回归模型和时间序列数据的回归模型来评估COVID-19对韩国海员供需双方的影响。首先,本文发现,即使2020年韩国国旗船舶的吨位增加幅度更大,COVID-19对韩国海员市场需求的影响也是负面的。这种需求冲击可能是新冠肺炎疫情宣布后限制旅行和加强入境措施的结果。第二,2020年新冠肺炎疫情宣布后,面板数据回归模型中的供应量受到负向影响。由于旅行限制和船员变动带来的瓶颈,新冠肺炎大流行可能会引发航海犹豫。除了这些发现之外,商船的韩国海员人数与商船队之间的相关系数说明了两者之间的不同关系。随着韩国远洋船队的扩大,悬挂韩国国旗的韩国船员也在减少。从1992年开始,由于雇用外籍海员,悬挂韩国国旗的船舶的普通船员人数持续减少。2005年以后,韩国船舶的外籍甲板人员的大量涌入,可以缓解因韩国甲板人员离职率高而造成的人员短缺问题。这种流入意味着一个国家的海员市场不仅通过该国海员供求的变化影响世界上的全球海员市场,而且受到全球市场的影响。韩国远洋和沿海航运海员双重市场表现出以下现象:沿海航运海员老龄化严重,两国海员福利水平差异较大。对韩国海员工资和职业发展的进一步研究将扩大和加深我们对韩国和世界其他地区海员市场的了解。
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引用次数: 0
A long term expected risk estimation of maritime accidents through Markov chain approach and probabilistic risk matrix 基于马尔可夫链方法和概率风险矩阵的海事事故长期预期风险估计
IF 3.1 Q1 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.04.002
Dong Jin Kim, Ji Min Sur, Hyeon U. Cho

Among many risk assessment techniques, qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative, risk matrix is a common tool to assess risk by allocating frequency and consequence of an accident to one of the pre divided frequency and consequence categories. However, since there is no standardized way to define these categories, risk matrix with its strength of being straightforward to use and easy to interpret has inherent uncertainties including objective categorization determination and consistency of decisions on frequency and consequence among different users, which usually results in multiple risk outcomes leading to incorrect conclusion about decision making on risk initiated from accidents.

The purpose of the study is to predict a long term risk of maritime accident using a 5 × 5 probabilistic risk matrix where each category of frequency and consequence is probabilistically estimated by a Markov chain model. The proposed method to calculate accident risk is illustrated using maritime accident data over 2016–2020 years. The findings are that the most probable frequency and consequence ranges of maritime accidents will be between 182 and 235 with probability of 0.3878 and between 6.8 and 11.6 fatalities with probability of 0.3791, respectively. The expected risk value was computed as 4.6506 on a scale of 2–10. For the validation of the proposed method 90 %, 95 %, and 99 % confidence intervals were constructed which were shown to contain the predicted risk value. The probabilistic risk matrix with Markov chain approach can be applied to predicting risks in different fields of industries.

在许多定性、半定量或定量的风险评估技术中,风险矩阵是通过将事故的频率和后果分配到预先划分的频率和结果类别之一来评估风险的常用工具。然而,由于没有标准化的方法来定义这些类别,风险矩阵具有易于使用和解释的优势,具有固有的不确定性,包括客观的分类确定以及不同用户之间关于频率和后果的决策的一致性,这通常会导致多种风险结果,导致对事故引发的风险决策的错误结论。本研究的目的是使用5×5概率风险矩阵预测海事事故的长期风险,其中每一类频率和后果都通过马尔可夫链模型进行概率估计。使用2016-2020年的海事事故数据说明了所提出的事故风险计算方法。研究结果表明,海上事故最可能发生的频率和后果范围分别在182至235人之间,概率为0.3878人,6.8至11.6人死亡,概率为0.3791人。预期风险值计算为4.6506,评分标准为2-10。为了验证所提出的方法,构建了90%、95%和99%的置信区间,这些置信区间被证明包含预测的风险值。马尔可夫链方法的概率风险矩阵可以应用于不同行业领域的风险预测。
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引用次数: 0
A smart port development: Systematic literature and bibliometric analysis 智能港口的发展:系统文献和文献计量分析
IF 3.1 Q1 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.06.005
Thi Yen Pham

Improving the efficiency of operating activities while minimizing the impact on the environment are increasingly prioritized of seaports over stiff competition in global supply chains. Incorporating advanced technologies connected with the fourth industrial revolution, smart port has become a strategic direction towards sustainable development of modern seaports. Consequence, there have been a growing concern over smart port in both academic and practical. Therefore, this study conducts a systematic literature review and a bibliometric analysis evaluating the current research of smart port derived from Web of Science. This study’s findings illustrate that there are three main research themes in the smart port literature in which digitalization and its application in smart port has been a major topic in the smart port literature. Accordingly, this study provides insights into the main trends and future research directions on smart port.

在全球供应链的激烈竞争中,海港越来越优先考虑提高运营活动的效率,同时最大限度地减少对环境的影响。结合第四次工业革命的先进技术,智能港口已成为现代海港可持续发展的战略方向。因此,智能港口在学术界和实务界都引起了越来越多的关注。因此,本研究对基于Web of Science的智能港口研究现状进行了系统的文献综述和文献计量分析。本研究结果表明,智能港口文献中有三个主要研究主题,其中数字化及其在智能港口中的应用一直是智能港口文献的主要主题。因此,本研究为智能港口的主要趋势和未来研究方向提供了见解。
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引用次数: 3
Modeling challenges affecting the performance of major ports of India 影响印度主要港口性能的建模挑战
IF 3.1 Q1 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.06.002
V.P.S.N Nanyam , Neeraj Kumar Jha

Purpose

Despite several initiatives taken by government of India since 2013 to improve the performance of major ports, growth was not as anticipated. Hence, there is a need to understand the performance of these major ports during 2013–2020 and to identify the critical challenges that affect their performance.

Design/methodology/approach

Performance analysis was conducted using Malmquist productivity index (MPI) and critical challenges were identified using interpretive structural modelling (ISM) technique as well as the cross-impact matrix multiplication (MICMAC).

Findings

Ten major ports in terms of operational, 12 ports in terms of service quality, and six ports in terms of financial performance have been categorised as high performers, based on the MPI values. 19 challenges affecting the performance were identified in an eight layered ISM model.

Research limitations

This research is limited to major ports of India and does not cover the non-major ports of India due to unavailability of data

Practical implications

This study will enable the port decision-makers to identify the ports which are high performers in terms of operational, service quality, and financial performance, and thereby the best practices followed across can be replicated.

Originality/value

This study explored the multi dimensions of performance of Major ports of India and there was no such study in the past. Despite the existence of performance studies in the literature, none of them explored the challenges faced by the major ports.

目的尽管印度政府自2013年以来采取了几项举措来改善主要港口的业绩,但增长并没有达到预期。因此,需要了解这些主要港口在2013-2020年的表现,并确定影响其表现的关键挑战。设计/方法/方法使用Malmquist生产力指数(MPI)进行性能分析,并使用解释性结构建模(ISM)技术和交叉影响矩阵乘法(MICMAC)确定关键挑战,根据MPI值,六个港口的财务表现被归类为高绩效港口。在八层ISM模型中发现了19个影响性能的挑战。研究限制这项研究仅限于印度的主要港口,由于数据不可用,不包括印度的非主要港口。实际意义这项研究将使港口决策者能够确定在运营、服务质量和财务绩效方面表现良好的港口,从而可以复制各地遵循的最佳实践。原创性/价值本研究探讨了印度主要港口绩效的多个维度,过去没有此类研究。尽管文献中存在性能研究,但没有一项研究探讨主要港口面临的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of weighted network centrality for cold chain commodities in international air cargo under the COVID-19 pandemic 新冠肺炎大流行下冷链商品在国际航空货运中的加权网络中心性分析
IF 3.1 Q1 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.06.001
Youngwoong Park, Seung Bum Ahn, Jae Chul Sohn

Air Cargo plays a key role under the global supply chain crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to analyze empirically the transport patterns and correlations of key commodities of cold chain in air cargo. We analyzed air cargo O-D data by weight for key commodities including pharmaceutical and coolchain products for top 100 airports in the last 10 years. We analyzed weighted centralities for key cold chain commodities traffic using social network analysis methodology. Whereas previous studies focused on unweighted centrality metrics, this study covered weighted centrality metrics, which represent more accurate empirical situation. The international air cargo networks for cold chain are significantly improved after COVID-19. Comparative analysis of cold chain traffic trends for top 10 international air cargo airports was also performed. The role of top 10 airports in the performance of air cargo transportation was found to be more important, especially in COVID-19 period.

航空货运在新冠肺炎疫情引发的全球供应链危机中发挥着关键作用。本研究旨在实证分析航空货运中冷链关键商品的运输模式和相关性。我们分析了过去10年中前100个机场的主要商品的航空货运O-D数据,包括药品和冷链产品。我们使用社交网络分析方法分析了关键冷链商品流量的加权集中度。先前的研究侧重于未加权的中心性指标,而本研究涵盖了加权的中心度指标,它代表了更准确的实证情况。新冠肺炎后,冷链国际航空货运网络显著改善。还对排名前十的国际航空货运机场的冷链交通趋势进行了比较分析。十大机场在航空货物运输绩效中的作用更为重要,尤其是在新冠肺炎期间。
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引用次数: 0
Crowdshippers’ intentions to continue participating in last-mile delivery: A study in Vietnam 众托运人继续参与最后一英里配送的意图:越南的一项研究
IF 3.1 Q1 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.06.004
Nguyet Nguyen, Thi Hoang Ha Tran, Thi Thuy Duong Luu, Tuan Duong Vu

The growth of last-mile delivery in developing countries is featuring the important contribution of crowdshippers. Therefore, exploring the factors affecting the intentions to stay in jobs of the crowdshippers is of great significance to maintain and sustainably develop the last-mile delivery service. Based on the Social Exchange Theory, we hypothesize that benefits (economic benefits, professional reputation, and job autonomy) and costs (risks and stress at work) have an effect on crowdshippers’ intentions to continue participating in last-mile delivery service in Vietnam. We also look for differences in motivations to stay in job between full-time and part-time workers. Survey data from 428 crowdshippers were analyzed using SmartPLS. The research findings indicate that economic benefits and work autonomy (benefits) have positive influences on intention to continue participating in crowd logistics, while risks and job stress (cost) have negative effects on the intention of crowsdhippers to continue their work. In addition, research findings also uncover that differences in motivation (perception of benefits and costs) to stay in job between full-time and part-time workers also affect their intentions. Although reputation did not show a significant impact on the crowdshippers’ intentions to continue participating in crowd logistics, it was discovered that reputation has a positive effect on full-time crowdshippers’ intentions to continue working. Based on the findings of this study, we recommend that businesses increase benefits and reduce costs in job to sustain and increase the continued participation in last-mile delivery.

发展中国家最后一英里配送的增长体现了众包商的重要贡献。因此,探讨影响众包商留任意愿的因素,对于维护和可持续发展最后一英里配送服务具有重要意义。基于社会交换理论,我们假设利益(经济利益、职业声誉和工作自主权)和成本(工作中的风险和压力)对众包商继续参与越南最后一英里配送服务的意图产生影响。我们还寻找全职和兼职员工在继续工作的动机上的差异。使用SmartPLS分析了428家众包商的调查数据。研究结果表明,经济效益和工作自主权(效益)对继续参与人群物流的意愿有正向影响,而风险和工作压力(成本)对人群运输者继续工作的意愿有负向影响。此外,研究结果还发现,全职和兼职员工留在工作岗位的动机(对福利和成本的感知)的差异也会影响他们的意图。尽管声誉对众包商继续参与众包物流的意愿没有显著影响,但研究发现,声誉对全职众包商持续工作的意愿有积极影响。根据这项研究的结果,我们建议企业增加福利,降低工作成本,以维持和增加对最后一英里交付的持续参与。
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引用次数: 1
Forecasting future electric power consumption in Busan New Port using a deep learning model 使用深度学习模型预测釜山新港未来的电力消耗
IF 3.1 Q1 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2023.04.001
Geunsub Kim , Gunwoo Lee , Seunghyun An , Joowon Lee

As smart and environmentally friendly technologies and equipment are introduced in the sea port industry, electric power consumption is expected to rapidly increase. However, there is a paucity of research on the creation of electric power management plans, specifically in relation to electric power consumption forecasting, in ports. In order to address this gap, this study forecasts future electric power consumption in Busan New Port (South Korea's largest container port) and, comparing this with the current standard electric power supply capacity, investigated the feasibility of maintaining a stable electric power supply in the future. We applied a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model trained using electric power consumption and throughput data of the last 10 years to forecast the future electric power consumption of Busan New Port. According to the results, electric power consumption is expected to increase at an annual average of 4.9 % until 2040, exceeding the predicted annual 4.7 % increase in throughput during the same period. Given these results, the current standard electric power supply capacity is forecast to reach only 35 % of demand in 2040, indicating that additional electrical power supply facilities will be needed for stable port operation in the future.

随着智能环保技术和设备被引入海港行业,电力消耗预计将迅速增加。然而,关于制定港口电力管理计划,特别是与电力消耗预测有关的计划的研究却很少。为了解决这一差距,本研究预测了釜山新港(韩国最大的集装箱港口)未来的电力消耗,并将其与当前的标准电力供应能力进行了比较,研究了未来保持稳定电力供应的可行性。我们应用使用过去10年的电力消耗和吞吐量数据训练的长短期记忆(LSTM)模型来预测釜山新港未来的电力消耗。根据结果,到2040年,电力消耗预计将以年均4.9%的速度增长,超过了同期预计的4.7%的年吞吐量增长。鉴于这些结果,预计到2040年,目前的标准电力供应能力将仅达到需求的35%,这表明未来港口稳定运营将需要额外的电力供应设施。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics
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