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The performance of politically connected firms in South East Europe: state capture or business capture? 东南欧政治关联企业的表现:国家俘获还是商业俘获?
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2188694
W. Bartlett
ABSTRACT This article investigates the effects of the political connectedness on the business performance of private sector firms in South East Europe. This question is relevant to contemporary ideas about the importance of ‘state capture’ in the region, and the article provides a new perspective on the nature and consequences of this phenomenon. Analysis of survey data reveals that political connections tend to undermine the business performance of connected firms, with a potential negative impact on the economic development of the countries concerned. It is argued that this process is better described as ‘business capture’ rather than ‘state capture’. The terminology is important as it suggests how policies might be used to manage this issue. The negative effect on business performance is substantial, especially in service sectors and in countries of the Western Balkans. The EU member states of the region are relatively immune from the negative effects of business capture.
本文研究了政治联系对东南欧私营企业经营绩效的影响。这个问题与当代关于“国家俘获”在该地区重要性的观点有关,文章对这一现象的性质和后果提供了一个新的视角。对调查数据的分析表明,政治联系往往会损害有联系的公司的经营业绩,对有关国家的经济发展产生潜在的负面影响。有人认为,这一过程最好被描述为“业务捕获”,而不是“状态捕获”。术语很重要,因为它表明了如何使用策略来管理这个问题。对业务业绩的负面影响是巨大的,特别是在服务部门和西巴尔干国家。该地区的欧盟成员国相对而言不受商业俘获的负面影响。
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引用次数: 2
Time interval choices in forecasting stock market indices of CEE and SEE countries 中东欧和SEE国家股市指数预测的时间间隔选择
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2188768
Silvija Vlah Jerić
ABSTRACT The main objective of this analysis is to investigate how varying the forecast horizon and the input window length for calculating technical indicators affects the predictive performance of different machine learning algorithms on forecasting the direction of change of chosen stock market indices. Ten indices from CEE (Central and Eastern European) and SEE (Southern and Eastern European) countries are chosen for research in an attempt to investigate their behaviour in the light of the behaviour of bigger and more researched markets. In respect to similar research conducted on S&P 500 Index stocks, this analysis does not find the same pattern of highest system performance for each forecast horizon value when the input window length is approximately equal to the forecasting horizon. Instead, the forecasts seem to be better using shorter input window lengths for technical indicators in general. Also, on average, there is a notable deterioration in the performance with the increase of forecasting horizon. Furthermore, some algorithms perform very well for short horizons and then deteriorate substantially as the forecasting horizon increases, while others seem to have more consistent performance over different horizons.
摘要本分析的主要目的是研究预测范围和计算技术指标的输入窗口长度的变化如何影响不同机器学习算法在预测所选股市指数变化方向方面的预测性能。选择来自中东欧(中欧和东欧)和东南欧(南欧和东欧)国家的十个指数进行研究,试图根据更大、更受研究的市场的行为来调查它们的行为。关于对标准普尔500指数股票进行的类似研究,当输入窗口长度近似等于预测范围时,该分析没有发现每个预测范围值的最高系统性能的相同模式。相反,一般来说,使用较短的技术指标输入窗口长度进行预测似乎更好。此外,平均而言,随着预测范围的增加,业绩显著恶化。此外,一些算法在短范围内表现非常好,然后随着预测范围的增加而大幅恶化,而另一些算法在不同范围内的表现似乎更加一致。
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引用次数: 0
Institutions and R&D engagement of SMEs in Laos 老挝中小企业的制度和研发参与
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2188687
Helery Tasane, Gaygysyz Ashyrov, Sopheak Srun
ABSTRACT We investigate the association between research and development (R&D) engagement by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and the institutional environment in Laos. We employed multivariate imputation by chained equations and full Bayesian inference to analyse data from the 2016 and 2018 World Bank Enterprise Surveys for Laos. Our findings show that Lao SMEs that engage in R&D are likely to experience more frequent tax inspections and more solicitation of bribes by government authorities, than Lao SMEs that do not engage in R&D. Firms that perceive political uncertainty as an obstacle to doing business are 28% less likely to engage in R&D activities. These findings raise concerns about the effectiveness of institutions in supporting intellectual property rights in Laos, and have policy implications for promoting productivity of small and medium-sized firms.
摘要本文研究了老挝中小企业(SMEs)参与研究与开发(R&D)与制度环境之间的关系。我们采用链式方程和全贝叶斯推理的多元归因方法分析了2016年和2018年世界银行老挝企业调查的数据。研究结果表明,与不从事研发的老挝中小企业相比,从事研发的老挝中小企业更有可能遭受政府部门更频繁的税务检查和更多的贿赂。将政治不确定性视为经营障碍的企业参与研发活动的可能性要低28%。这些发现引起了人们对老挝支持知识产权制度的有效性的关注,并对提高中小企业的生产力具有政策意义。
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引用次数: 0
Green credit policy and corporate diversification: evidence from China 绿色信贷政策与企业多元化:来自中国的证据
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2188684
Dongwei Su, Shulin Xu, Zhen Yang
ABSTRACT This study draws insights from the New Stakeholder Theory to investigate the influence of green credit policy on firm diversification. Using a sample of publicly listed firms in China from 2006 to 2018, we find that green credit policy has increased the degree of corporate diversification for heavily polluting firms. In addition, the positive impact of green credit policy on industrial diversity is more significant for heavily polluting firms which are state-owned, bigger in size, with institutional ownership of shares and located in provinces with higher level of marketisation. Moreover, financial constraint is an important mediating variable for green credit policy to influence corporate diversification. An important implication of our study is that corporate diversification can be a strategic choice made by heavily polluting firms to overcome financial constraints as a result of the green credit policy. In fact, greater corporate diversity can ensure the survival of polluting firms by allowing them to operate in industries with less environmental regulations.
摘要本研究借鉴新利益相关者理论,研究绿色信贷政策对企业多元化的影响。利用2006年中国上市公司样本 到 2018年,我们发现绿色信贷政策提高了重污染企业的企业多元化程度。此外,绿色信贷政策对产业多样性的积极影响对于国有、规模更大、拥有机构股权且位于市场化水平较高省份的高污染企业来说更为显著。此外,财务约束是绿色信贷政策影响企业多元化的重要中介变量。我们研究的一个重要意义是,企业多元化可以是重污染企业为克服绿色信贷政策带来的财务约束而做出的战略选择。事实上,更大的企业多样性可以通过允许污染企业在环境法规较少的行业运营来确保它们的生存。
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引用次数: 11
Social and economic development from an integrated sustainability perspective: analysing the interaction of social capital, income level, and income inequality in China 综合可持续性视角下的社会经济发展——中国社会资本、收入水平和收入不平等的互动分析
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-26 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2169517
Huai Ma, Chenkai Niu, W. Li
ABSTRACT This study aims to explore bilateral interactions of social and economic pillars of sustainability in China to reveal if they are synergistic or trade-off. To this end, this research uses the bootstrap method for panel data and an Ordinary Quantile Regression model to estimate the effects of social capital proxies including political identity, family relationship network and trust on economic condition proxy, household income, in different quantiles of Chinese households. This study uses data based on microsurvey data from the China Family Tracking Survey (CFPS) conducted by the China Social Science Research Center of Peking University in 2014, 2016 and 2018. The results show that social capital positively affects economic status implying the synergistic impact of social development on economic pillars of sustainable development. Moreover, further examination reveals that the resulted improvement in economic status is distributed equally among different quantiles of Chinese households. This result implies that the reflective effect of economic development on social pillar is synergistic. Overall, these findings accept the synergistic interactions between social and economic pillars of sustainability which is consistent with the integrated sustainability perspective. These findings suggest that policymakers in both the social and economic sectors to consider the consequences of their own plans and strategies for the other sectors.
摘要本研究旨在探讨中国可持续发展的社会和经济支柱的双边互动,以揭示它们是协同作用还是权衡作用。为此,本研究采用面板数据的bootstrap方法和普通分位数回归模型,估计了不同分位数的中国家庭中,包括政治身份、家庭关系网络和信任在内的社会资本代理对经济状况代理、家庭收入的影响。本研究使用了北京大学中国社会科学研究中心于2014年、2016年和2018年进行的中国家庭跟踪调查(CFPS)的微观调查数据。结果表明,社会资本对经济地位有正向影响,这意味着社会发展对可持续发展的经济支柱产生协同影响。此外,进一步的研究表明,经济状况的改善在中国家庭的不同分位数之间平均分布。这一结果表明,经济发展对社会支柱的反映作用是协同的。总的来说,这些发现接受了可持续性的社会和经济支柱之间的协同互动,这与综合可持续性观点一致。这些发现表明,社会和经济部门的决策者都应该考虑自己的计划和战略对其他部门的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Disentangling the semi-periphery: evolutionary trajectories and perspectives of the Austrian and Hungarian automotive industries 解开半边缘:奥地利和匈牙利汽车工业的发展轨迹和前景
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-26 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2171179
A. Szalavetz, Magdolna Sass
ABSTRACT This article explores the transition of integrated periphery countries to a semi-periphery status. It sets out to refine the broad category of ‘semi-periphery’, distinguishing between upper and lower-order semi-periphery. It shows that compared to established members of the automotive semi-periphery, newcomers are often poorly equipped to thrive in the new competitive environment. Since it takes decades of organic accumulation to develop competitive assets that provide resilience, newcomers that used to thrive in the competitive environment of the integrated periphery often turn out to be the weakest members in the semi-periphery. Based on expert interviews, the article illustrates the theoretical arguments comparing the evolutionary trajectories of the Austrian and Hungarian automotive industries. We show that Austria, exemplifying the case of within-category upgrading (within the upper semi-periphery), can leverage its strong innovation potential, dense network of capable domestic-owned suppliers, tradition of cluster-based and industry – university collaboration, and developed market for technology. In contrast, the between-category transition of Hungary was propelled by the rising wage-level, while other indicators would not qualify it for the club of semi-periphery countries. Evolutionary trajectories in the lower-order semi-periphery can easily be derailed if industrial policy gets stuck in its – previously highly effective – integrated-periphery role.
摘要本文探讨一体化边缘国家向半边缘国家地位的转变。它着手完善“半外围”的广泛类别,区分上阶和低阶半外围。它表明,与汽车半外围的老牌成员相比,新来者往往缺乏在新的竞争环境中茁壮成长的能力。由于需要数十年的有机积累才能发展出具有弹性的竞争性资产,过去在一体化边缘竞争环境中茁壮成长的新来者往往成为半边缘中最弱的成员。在专家访谈的基础上,本文阐述了比较奥地利和匈牙利汽车工业发展轨迹的理论论点。我们的研究表明,奥地利可以充分利用其强大的创新潜力、密集的国内供应商网络、以集群为基础的传统和产学研合作,以及发达的技术市场,从而实现类别内升级(在上半边缘)。相比之下,匈牙利的跨类别转型是由不断上升的工资水平推动的,而其他指标并不足以使其跻身半外围国家俱乐部。如果产业政策停留在其先前非常有效的一体化边缘角色上,那么低阶半边缘的演化轨迹很容易偏离轨道。
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引用次数: 1
Inequality in pre-industrial Bohemia: The city of Budweis 工业化前波西米亚的不平等:百威之城
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-21 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2174923
Daniel Kolar
ABSTRACT Distributional information can shed new light on societies and their well-being, now and in the past. This article constructs historical wealth inequality statistics for Budweis, a large town in South Bohemia. Utilised data sources include rare detailed local tax censuses from 1416 and 1523 and a national tax register from 1654, as reported in the literature, further adjusted for the lowest social groups and processed to create social tables. If the underlying data are accurate, the wealth inequality Gini coefficient in 1416 was between 0.739 and 0.777. The estimated wealth share of the top 1% was 22.6% in 1416 and 14.2% in 1523, which is notably less than in the pre-industrial UK or France, as well as in the present-day Czech Republic. The findings support the notion of an egalitarian rather than individualistic pre-industrial Bohemian society.
分布信息可以揭示社会及其福祉的新曙光,无论是现在还是过去。本文对波希米亚南部的一个大城镇Budweis进行了历史财富不平等统计。所使用的数据来源包括1416年和1523年罕见的详细的地方税收普查,以及1654年的全国税收登记册,如文献所述,对最低的社会群体进行了进一步调整,并进行了处理,形成了社会表格。如果基础数据准确,那么1416年的财富不平等基尼系数在0.739到0.777之间。1416年和1523年,最富有1%人群的财富占比分别为22.6%和14.2%,明显低于工业化前的英国和法国,也低于今天的捷克共和国。这些发现支持了平等主义的观念,而不是个人主义的前工业波西米亚社会。
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引用次数: 0
Credit availability and corporate risk-taking: evidence from China’s green credit policy 信贷可得性与企业风险承担:来自中国绿色信贷政策的证据
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-25 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2169516
Dongwei Su, Shulin Xu, Zefeng Tong
ABSTRACT Using data for firms publicly listed in China A-share markets during 2008 and 2019, this study is one of the first to treat Green Credit Guidelines implemented by the government in 2012 as a quasi-natural experiment and construct a difference-in-differences (DID) model to empirically examine the impact of credit availability on corporate risk-taking. Our study finds that credit restrictions on heavily polluting firms reduce their risk-taking behaviour, and the impact is more pronounced on small firms, non-state-owned enterprises, firms without institutional investors or firms located in low marketisation regions. In addition, our study demonstrates that credit restrictions increase financing constraints and reduce investment levels, which leads to less corporate risk-taking. Furthermore, our research shows that credit restrictions increase the cost of debt and reduce investment value and development capacity for firms in energy intensive and high pollution industries. An important implication is that to effectively curb the expansion of heavily polluting industries and promote environmental transformation, green credit policies should target small firms, firms with less state and institutional ownership as well as firms located in regions with poorer institutional reform.
本研究利用2008年至2019年中国a股上市公司的数据,首次将2012年政府实施的《绿色信贷指引》作为准自然实验,构建了差异中差异(DID)模型,实证检验了信贷可获得性对企业风险承担的影响。我们的研究发现,对重污染企业的信贷限制减少了它们的风险承担行为,并且对小企业、非国有企业、没有机构投资者的企业或位于低市场化地区的企业的影响更为明显。此外,我们的研究表明,信贷限制增加了融资约束,降低了投资水平,从而导致企业风险承担程度降低。此外,我们的研究表明,信贷限制增加了能源密集型和高污染行业企业的债务成本,降低了投资价值和发展能力。一个重要的启示是,为了有效遏制重污染行业的扩张和促进环境转型,绿色信贷政策应该针对小企业、国家和机构所有权较少的企业以及位于制度改革较差地区的企业。
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引用次数: 20
Remittances, FDI and economic growth: the case of South-East European countries 汇款、外国直接投资和经济增长:以东南欧国家为例
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-24 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2169520
V. Bucevska, Aleksandar Naumoski
ABSTRACT South-East European countries rely heavily on remittances and FDI as external sources of financing. Hence, an investigation of the behaviour of remittances and FDI during the business cycle and their impact on economic growth is of crucial importance. To achieve this objective, we first analyse the cyclical nature of remittances and FDI flows in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, the Republic of North Macedonia, and Serbia (SEE6) during their business cycles in the 2008q1-2021q2 period. Second, we investigate the causal link among these variables, and find out that although at the aggregate level remittances and FDI move synchronously and in the same direction as the business cycle, there are considerable variations across countries. Following Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Granger causality test, we find that for most SEE6 there is a bidirectional causal relationship between remittances and economic growth, i.e. economic growth is caused by remittances, and GDP growth also stimulates remittances.
东南欧国家严重依赖汇款和外国直接投资作为外部融资来源。因此,对商业周期中汇款和外国直接投资的行为及其对经济增长的影响进行调查至关重要。为了实现这一目标,我们首先分析了阿尔巴尼亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、克罗地亚、黑山、北马其顿共和国和塞尔维亚(SEE6)在2008年第一季度至2021第二季度商业周期中的汇款和外国直接投资流动的周期性。其次,我们研究了这些变量之间的因果关系,并发现尽管在总体水平上汇款和外国直接投资与商业周期同步且朝着同一方向移动,但各国之间存在相当大的差异。通过dumitrescup - hurlin面板格兰杰因果检验,我们发现在大多数SEE6中,汇款与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系,即经济增长由汇款引起,GDP增长也刺激汇款。
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引用次数: 1
Taxation as a factor in investment attractiveness in the Visegrád countries 税收是Visegrád国家投资吸引力的一个因素
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-24 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2169522
Vít Jedlička
ABSTRACT Managers take into account the tax burden when they decide about a new investment; therefore, they seek countries with lower tax rates. Governments respond to these requirements and battle for new investments by lowering tax rates as part of tax competition. This study focuses on the Visegrád countries as a region of new foreign investments from other OECD countries, and analyses the determinants of a bilateral FDI position of equity. As a model, it uses dynamic panel regression with GMM estimation. Results show that FDIs are affected by the level of difference in corporate taxation and the size of both countries. Every other potential determinant has no effect on the level of investment. These results show that foreign investors care about tax burdens more when investing within the Visegrád Group. Visegrád countries are relatively close when considering conditions for business; therefore, the most important difference becomes the taxation of profits.
摘要经理在决定新投资时会考虑税收负担;因此,他们寻求税率更低的国家。作为税收竞争的一部分,政府通过降低税率来应对这些要求并争取新的投资。本研究的重点是维塞格拉德国家作为其他经合组织国家新外国投资的地区,并分析了双边外国直接投资公平地位的决定因素。作为一个模型,它使用了带有GMM估计的动态面板回归。结果表明,外国直接投资受两国企业税收差异水平和规模的影响。其他所有潜在的决定因素对投资水平都没有影响。这些结果表明,外国投资者在Visegrád集团投资时更关心税收负担。维塞格拉德国家在考虑商业条件时相对接近;因此,最重要的区别在于对利润征税。
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引用次数: 0
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Post-Communist Economies
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