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Is there an asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports in the Central, East and Southeast European countries? 汇率波动对中欧、东欧和东南欧国家的进出口是否存在不对称影响?
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-23 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2210925
Safet Kurtović, N. Maxhuni, B. Halili, Arta Maxhuni
ABSTRACT The main objective of this paper is to assess the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on the exports and imports of 17 Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries. For this purpose, the linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and annual data for the 1995–2020 period were used. Empirical results of the assessment showed an asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on exports in nine countries and a symmetric effect on exports in four countries. Similarly, an asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on the imports of 10 countries and a symmetric effect on the imports of five countries were found. Research implications of this study are important to enable policy makers to understand that results obtained in earlier studies through the linear model may lead to incorrect views about the effect of exchange rate volatility on the exports and imports of CESEE countries.
摘要本文的主要目的是评估汇率波动对17个中欧、东欧和东南欧国家进出口的不对称影响。为此,使用了线性和非线性自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型以及1995-2020年期间的年度数据。评估的实证结果显示,汇率波动对9个国家的出口产生了不对称影响,对4个国家的进口产生了对称影响。同样,汇率波动对10个国家的进口产生了不对称影响,对5个国家的出口产生了对称影响。这项研究的研究意义非常重要,有助于决策者理解,早期通过线性模型进行的研究结果可能会导致对汇率波动对经济、社会和经济发展经济区国家进出口影响的错误看法。
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引用次数: 0
Migrants remittances and fertility in the Post-Soviet states 后苏联国家移民汇款与生育率
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-13 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2210365
Boburmirzo Ibrokhimov, Rashid Javed, Mazhar Mughal
ABSTRACT The demographic consequences of remittance flows to the developing countries have so far received scant attention. In this study, we examine the impact of migrants’ remittances on fertility by employing unbalanced panel data from Post-Soviet states. During the last three decades, these countries witnessed large-scale out-migration accompanied by high inflows of migrants’ remittances, and went from a high mortality – high birth rate to a low mortality – low birth rate regime. Employing standard panel estimation methods and instrumental variable (IV) approach, we find evidence for a significant negative association between remittances and fertility. These findings are robust to alternate measures and strategies. The impact of remittances is significant beyond a minimum threshold and has strengthened over time. The findings of the study highlight the remittances’ substitution effect contributing to the post-communist countries’ demographic transition.
到目前为止,汇款流向发展中国家的人口后果很少受到关注。在这项研究中,我们通过使用后苏联国家的不平衡面板数据来检验移民汇款对生育率的影响。在过去三十年中,这些国家出现了大规模的移民外流,同时移民汇款大量流入,并从高死亡率-高出生率制度转变为低死亡率-低出生率制度。采用标准面板估计方法和工具变量(IV)方法,我们发现汇款与生育率之间存在显著负相关的证据。这些发现对替代措施和战略是有力的。汇款的影响是巨大的,超过了最低限度,而且随着时间的推移已经加强。研究结果强调了汇款的替代效应对后共产主义国家人口结构转型的贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Investment dynamics in central and eastern Europe: a nonlinear approach 中欧和东欧的投资动态:一种非线性方法
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-10 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2209296
Estefanía Mourelle, J. C. Cuestas
ABSTRACT The aim of this article is to understand the dynamics of investment in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). The role that investment plays in the economic development is of particular interest in these countries, as, on the one hand, they have experienced a transition to market economies and, on the other hand, they have joined the European Union. This study contributes to the related literature by resorting to nonlinear models, which give us a better and more flexible understanding of the behaviour of the dynamics of investment, in comparison to linear specifications. The aim is to analyse which economic fundamentals are behind the nonlinear behaviour, as stated by the theoretical literature, of our variable of interest. Our results evidence the importance of the macroeconomic conditions on the dynamics of investment in CEECs, particularly its own recent history and the cyclical state of the economy.
本文旨在了解中欧和东欧国家(CEECs)的投资动态。这些国家对投资在经济发展中所起的作用特别感兴趣,因为它们一方面经历了向市场经济的过渡,另一方面又加入了欧洲联盟。本研究通过采用非线性模型对相关文献做出了贡献,与线性规范相比,非线性模型使我们对投资动态行为有了更好、更灵活的理解。其目的是分析我们感兴趣的变量的非线性行为背后的经济基本面,如理论文献所述。我们的研究结果证明了宏观经济条件对中东欧国家投资动态的重要性,特别是其近期历史和经济的周期性状态。
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引用次数: 0
Can foreign investors accurately operate and obtain excess returns? Evidence from China 外国投资者能否准确操作并获得超额收益?来自中国的证据
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-07 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2209301
Muhammad Jameel Hussain, S. Huang, Junbao Li
ABSTRACT This study examines the influence of foreign investors’ trading strategies on the earnings of China’s A-shares based on trading data from Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Exchanges during the period of 2017 to 2020. The findings indicate a positive association between the net inflow of foreign capital and A-share returns, with foreign investors showing a preference for high-quality stocks in China. Additionally, foreign investors demonstrate precision in their operations, by purchasing stocks at low prices and selling them at high prices. Moreover, A-shares held by foreign investors show an ability to generate excess earnings, which can further amplify over time. Additional analyses suggest that when the A-share index rises, foreign investors sell significantly, but the buying volume is not significant; when the A-share index falls, foreign investors buy significantly, but the selling volume is not significant. When Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect is closed, foreign investors will choose to sell more on the previous trading day in order to reduce their losses. This article provides powerful enlightenment for stock investors.
摘要本研究基于2017年至2020年沪深交易所的交易数据,考察了外国投资者的交易策略对中国A股收益的影响。研究结果表明,外资净流入与a股回报率呈正相关,外国投资者对中国优质股票表现出偏好。此外,外国投资者通过低价购买股票和高价出售股票来证明其经营的准确性。此外,外国投资者持有的A股显示出产生超额收益的能力,随着时间的推移,超额收益可能会进一步放大。补充分析表明,当A股指数上涨时,外国投资者大幅抛售,但买入量并不显著;当A股指数下跌时,外国投资者大量买入,但卖出量并不显著。当沪深股市通关闭时,外国投资者会选择在前一个交易日卖出更多股票,以减少损失。本文为股票投资者提供了有力的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Misuse of institutions and economic performance: some evidence from Serbia 制度滥用与经济绩效:来自塞尔维亚的一些证据
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-07 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2209344
Marko Tmušič
ABSTRACT Having in mind the current global trends and the transition processes, it is necessary to explain the role, influence, and importance of institutions in providing conditions for economic growth and development. Theory has proven, and practice confirms, that the institutional structure (the way of forming institutions, decision-making process, decision-making effectiveness, and economic justification of goals) is one of the most important factors in achieving macroeconomic stability and economic development. This article explores the impact of the quality of institutions on the economic performance of the Republic of Serbia. A comparative analysis of the content of relevant institutional indicators and their economic effects shows the institutional matrix of possible misuse of political and economic institutions in the direction of realising short-term political goals, to the detriment of long-term sustainable economic growth and development of the Serbian economy.
考虑到当前的全球趋势和转型过程,有必要解释制度在为经济增长和发展提供条件方面的作用、影响和重要性。理论证明,实践证实,制度结构(制度形成方式、决策过程、决策有效性和目标的经济合理性)是实现宏观经济稳定和经济发展的最重要因素之一。本文探讨了机构质量对塞尔维亚共和国经济绩效的影响。对有关体制指标的内容及其经济影响的比较分析表明,在实现短期政治目标的方向上可能滥用政治和经济体制,损害塞尔维亚经济的长期可持续经济增长和发展的体制矩阵。
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引用次数: 0
Does one belt and one road initiative facilitate China‘s export of equipment? 一带一路倡议是否有利于中国设备出口?
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-05 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2209300
Mantian Xue, Yuexian Wang
ABSTRACT This article uses difference in difference estimation to examine the effect of the One Belt and One Road Initiative on China’s export of equipment to related countries, taking into consideration the different times of policy shock for different countries. The results show that signing the agreement induced a 14.07% increase of China’s export of equipment to the group of countries, which were focused on Asian and African economies, in sub-industries of electrical machinery, general equipment and special equipment, and probably through the financing mechanism of China’s transnational credit. Simply assigning the year when the One Belt and One Road Initiative is launched as the uniform time of policy shock may be misleading.
摘要本文采用差异估计法考察了一带一路倡议对中国向相关国家出口装备的影响,考虑了不同国家政策冲击的不同时期。结果表明,该协议的签署使中国对该集团国家的设备出口增长了14.07%,这些国家主要集中在亚洲和非洲经济体,在电机、通用设备和特种设备的子行业,可能是通过中国跨国信贷的融资机制。简单地将一带一路倡议启动的年份定为政策冲击的统一时间可能会产生误导。
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引用次数: 0
International labour migration and people’s views towards economic and political systems in transition countries 国际劳工移徙和过渡国家人民对经济和政治制度的看法
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2196867
Daichi Yamada, Masato Hiwatari
ABSTRACT During the 30 years of transition from communist regimes, the people’s views towards transition have varied from support to opposition. We empirically examine the influences of international labour migration on these views, using the survey data covering 28 transition countries in Europe and the former Soviet Union area and three points of time, 2006, 2010 and 2016, based on multivariate regression models. Our main findings are twofold. (I) Labour emigration to Western Europe increased people’s support for a market economy and democracy over a planned economy and authoritarian government, albeit a less robust result for democracy. This suggests the role of social remittances – migrants transmit their experiences and promote the support for transition among people remaining in the home countries. (II) However, immigrant inflows reduced these support, suggesting that the economic and cultural conflicts with immigrants made people sceptic towards liberal policies or nostalgic towards the communist era.
在共产党政权转型的30年里,人们对转型的看法从支持到反对不一。我们基于多元回归模型,利用涵盖欧洲和前苏联地区28个转型国家和2006年、2010年和2016年三个时间点的调查数据,实证检验了国际劳动力迁移对这些观点的影响。我们的主要发现有两个方面。(1)向西欧的劳工移民增加了人们对市场经济和民主的支持,而不是计划经济和威权政府,尽管对民主的支持不那么有力。这表明社会汇款的作用- -移徙者传递他们的经验并促进留在原籍国的人对过渡的支持。(2)然而,移民流入减少了这些支持,这表明与移民的经济和文化冲突使人们对自由主义政策持怀疑态度或怀念共产主义时代。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of fdi and regional factors on economic growth in Vietnamese provinces: A spatial econometric analysis 外商直接投资与区域因素对越南各省经济增长的影响:一个空间计量分析
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2196869
Hoang Hong Hiep, Bui Nhat Quang, Huynh Cong Minh
ABSTRACT By using spatial econometric models, this paper studies the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and regional spatial factors on economic growth of 63 provinces in Vietnam over the period 2007–2018. Results show that, after controlling for the important factors of the growth model (human capital, physical capital, and institutional quality), FDI inflows have a rather limited direct and indirect impact in boosting economic growth of localities in Vietnam. Results from the estimation of spatial variables show three especially interesting key points: i) there is a close relationship in economic growth and economic shocks among neighbouring provinces; ii) capitals from state sector and domestic non-state sector of neighbouring provinces have a positive impact on economic growth in the host province; and iii) surprisingly, there is a trend of competition among neighbouring localities in attracting not only high-quality human resources but also in terms of untrained human resources.
摘要运用空间计量模型,研究了2007-2018年越南63个省份的外国直接投资流入和区域空间因素对经济增长的影响。结果表明,在控制了增长模型的重要因素(人力资本、实物资本和制度质量)后,外国直接投资流入对促进越南地方经济增长的直接和间接影响相当有限。空间变量估计的结果显示了三个特别有趣的关键点:一)相邻省份之间的经济增长和经济冲击之间存在密切关系;ii)来自邻近省份的国有部门和国内非国有部门的资本对所在省份的经济增长有积极影响;令人惊讶的是,邻近地区之间不仅在吸引高质量人力资源方面,而且在吸引未经培训的人力资源方面存在竞争趋势。
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引用次数: 0
Human capital and economic growth in Central Asia 中亚地区人力资本与经济增长
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-07 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2196872
M. Yormirzoev
ABSTRACT This study explores the long-term economic performance in former Soviet republics of Central Asia for the last three decades. We look at sources of economic growth based on the extended version of the neoclassical growth model. Our key focus is to see whether human capital in the form of education and health inputs has an impact on growth rates in the region. Results show that over the entire period under study, on average, the growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP) were not remarkable, ranging from 1.4% for Kazakhstan and 0.51% for Tajikistan to −1.13% for the Kyrgyz Republic. Kazakhstan as a frontier economy of the region maintained better economic results in almost all indicators. Since 2000, TFP growth rates were notably stronger in Tajikistan compared to Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic. However, a reduction in TFP in Tajikistan in the 1990s is attributed to the country’s dire civil war.
摘要本研究探讨了中亚前苏联加盟共和国过去三十年的长期经济表现。我们根据新古典增长模型的扩展版本来研究经济增长的来源。我们的重点是观察以教育和卫生投入形式的人力资本是否对该区域的增长率产生影响。结果表明,在整个研究期间,全要素生产率(TFP)的平均增长率并不显著,从哈萨克斯坦的1.4%和塔吉克斯坦的0.51%到吉尔吉斯共和国的- 1.13%不等。哈萨克斯坦作为区域前沿经济体,在几乎所有指标上都保持了较好的经济成果。自2000年以来,塔吉克斯坦的全要素生产率增长率明显高于哈萨克斯坦和吉尔吉斯共和国。然而,上世纪90年代塔吉克斯坦全要素生产率的下降是由于该国可怕的内战。
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引用次数: 0
Convergence patterns in income and manufacturing productivity in EU: does the latter drive the former? 欧盟收入和制造业生产率的趋同模式:后者是否推动前者?
IF 2.2 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2023.2188774
P. Petrović, Mirjana Gligorić Matić
ABSTRACT While exploring convergence in real income and in manufacturing productivity of the central and eastern European countries (CEE) and the southern EU counties with the developed EU ones, testing and clustering methodology and sigma convergence are used. We found that CEE countries strongly converge, both in real income and manufacturing productivity, with developed EU countries, while the southern EU countries do not. Moreover, the convergence pattern in real income follows that in manufacturing productivity in both peripheral EU groups suggesting that the underlying productivity clubs determine the formation of income clubs. The observed time pattern of sigma convergence also suggests that manufacturing productivity drives economic growth, as (non)convergence of the former preceded (‘caused’) that of the latter. Aforementioned findings are robust, since they are supported by the results obtained both by the Phillips and Sul (2007) approach and sigma convergence.
在探讨中东欧国家和欧盟南部国家与欧盟发达国家在实际收入和制造业生产率方面的收敛性时,采用了检验和聚类方法以及sigma收敛方法。我们发现,中东欧国家在实际收入和制造业生产率方面与欧盟发达国家高度趋同,而欧盟南部国家则不然。此外,实际收入的趋同模式遵循了两个欧盟外围国家制造业生产率的趋同模式,这表明潜在的生产率俱乐部决定了收入俱乐部的形成。观察到的西格玛收敛的时间模式也表明,制造业生产率推动经济增长,因为前者的(非)收敛先于后者(“导致”)收敛。上述发现是稳健的,因为它们得到了Phillips和Sul(2007)方法和sigma收敛所获得的结果的支持。
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引用次数: 0
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Post-Communist Economies
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