Journal of Choice Modelling最新文献_第3页

Cost vector effects in forced-choice discrete choice experiments: Assessing the acceptability of future glyphosate policies 强迫选择离散选择实验中的成本向量效应：评估未来草甘膦政策的可接受性

IF 2.8 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100550

Vincent Martinet , Maïa David , Vincent Mermet-Bijon , Romain Crastes Dit Sourd

One way to evaluate future policies that significantly deviate from the status quo is through discrete choice experiments (DCEs) with a reference policy featuring a positive cost and no opt-out option. This study examines how the design of the cost vector, particularly the cost assigned to the reference policy, influences DCE outcomes in this context. Focusing on glyphosate phase-out policies in France, we compare a strict ban (used as the reference policy) with taxation alternatives. Using a split-sample design with two groups of 500 individuals, we analyze how variations in the ban’s cost and the associated cost range affect welfare estimates. Our findings reveal that while overall preference rankings remain consistent across samples, willingness-to-pay for some attributes increases when the reference policy’s cost rises. We explore potential drivers of this effect, including the inability to choke off demand for the ban, strategic biases, attribute non-attendance, relative evaluation, and anchoring bias. The results suggest that relative evaluation and anchoring bias are the most likely explanations for the observed differences. These findings provide methodological insights for addressing cost vector effects in DCEs.

评估明显偏离现状的未来政策的一种方法是通过离散选择实验（DCEs），其中包含一个具有正成本且无选择退出选项的参考政策。本研究探讨了成本向量的设计，特别是分配给参考政策的成本，在这种情况下如何影响DCE结果。着眼于法国的草甘膦淘汰政策，我们将严格的禁令（用作参考政策）与税收替代方案进行了比较。采用两组500人的分离样本设计，我们分析了禁令成本和相关成本范围的变化如何影响福利估计。我们的研究结果表明，虽然样本的总体偏好排名保持一致，但当参考政策的成本上升时，某些属性的支付意愿会增加。我们探讨了这种影响的潜在驱动因素，包括无法抑制对禁令的需求、战略偏见、属性不出席、相对评估和锚定偏见。结果表明，相对评价和锚定偏差是对观察到的差异最可能的解释。这些发现为解决dce中的成本向量效应提供了方法论见解。

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引用次数: 0

Constructing Bayesian optimal designs for discrete choice experiments by simulated annealing 用模拟退火构造离散选择实验的贝叶斯最优设计

IF 2.8 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100551

Yicheng Mao , Roselinde Kessels , Tom van der Zanden

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) investigate the attributes that influence individuals’ choices when selecting among various options. To enhance the quality of the estimated choice models, researchers opt for Bayesian optimal designs that utilize existing information about the attributes’ preferences. Given the nonlinear nature of choice models, the construction of an appropriate design requires efficient algorithms. Among these, the coordinate-exchange (CE) algorithm is commonly employed for constructing designs based on the MNL model. However, as a hill-climbing method, the CE algorithm tends to quickly converge to local optima, potentially limiting the quality of the resulting designs. We propose the use of a simulated annealing (SA) algorithm to construct Bayesian optimal designs. This algorithm accepts both superior and inferior solutions, avoiding premature convergence and allowing a more thorough exploration of potential solutions. Consequently, it ultimately obtains higher-quality choice designs compared to the CE algorithm. Our work represents the first application of an SA algorithm in constructing Bayesian optimal designs for DCEs. Through extensive computational experiments, we demonstrate that the SA designs generally outperform the CE designs in terms of statistical efficiency, especially when the prior preference information is highly uncertain.

离散选择实验（DCE）研究的是影响个人在各种选项中做出选择的属性。为了提高估计选择模型的质量，研究人员会选择贝叶斯优化设计，利用现有的属性偏好信息。鉴于选择模型的非线性特点，构建合适的设计需要高效的算法。其中，坐标交换（CE）算法通常用于构建基于 MNL 模型的设计。然而，作为一种爬山方法，CE 算法往往会迅速收敛到局部最优，从而可能限制设计结果的质量。我们建议使用模拟退火（SA）算法来构建贝叶斯最优设计。该算法同时接受优劣两种解决方案，避免了过早收敛，并允许对潜在解决方案进行更彻底的探索。因此，与 CE 算法相比，它最终能获得更高质量的选择设计。我们的工作代表了 SA 算法在构建 DCE 的贝叶斯最优设计中的首次应用。通过大量的计算实验，我们证明了 SA 设计在统计效率方面普遍优于 CE 设计，尤其是在先验偏好信息高度不确定的情况下。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring the choice landscape: Anchoring and framing effects on search behavior in complex choices 探索选择景观：复杂选择中搜索行为的锚定和框架效应

IF 2.8 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100549

Nikolos Gurney , John H. Miller , David V. Pynadath

Complex choices entail consideration of multiple variables characterized by non-linear interactions. Prior research into such choices neglects two categories of major choice determinants: heuristics and biases. Our research integrates such behavioral determinants of decision making into the study of complex choices. We approach this challenge using a new experimental paradigm in which participants tune on-screen dials representing choice variables. Through their tuning efforts, participants can discover information about the choice space. Specifically, this paradigm allows us to document how anchoring and framing effects impact complex choice processes. We find that loss framing incites participants to expend more effort exploring choice variables before selecting an option. An aspirational anchor, on the other hand, correlates with decreased search effort. Additionally, when participants did not have an aspirational anchor, the data suggest they anchor on prior experience.

复杂的选择需要考虑以非线性相互作用为特征的多个变量。先前对这类选择的研究忽略了两类主要的选择决定因素：启发式和偏见。我们的研究将这些决策的行为决定因素整合到复杂选择的研究中。我们使用一种新的实验范式来应对这一挑战，在这种范式中，参与者调整代表选择变量的屏幕刻度盘。通过调优工作，参与者可以发现有关选择空间的信息。具体来说，这个范例允许我们记录锚定和框架效应如何影响复杂的选择过程。我们发现损失框架激励参与者在选择一个选项之前花费更多的精力来探索选择变量。另一方面，一个有抱负的锚与减少搜索努力相关。此外，当参与者没有理想锚时，数据表明他们会根据先前的经验进行锚定。

引用次数: 0

Modelling viewing patterns of serial TV dramas considering live viewing and time shifting 考虑直播和时移的电视剧观看模式建模

IF 2.8 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100548

Ryosuke Igari

In this study, we focus on the segmentation of viewing behavior for serial TV dramas at the individual level, considering both live and time-shift viewing. In particular, many consumers have recently engaged in time shifting after a program is broadcast, in addition to live viewing. Time-shift viewing is prominent in drama viewing because drama viewing may be less urgent. However, few studies that focus on individual-level viewing choice models have considered time shifting and no studies have utilized segmentation to analyze heterogeneous viewing patterns that consider live viewing and time-shifts. We use a multinomial probit (MNP) model to capture viewing or not viewing and viewing method (live or time shifting). Furthermore, a latent growth curve model and a latent class model are included in the MNP model to represent heterogeneous patterns of viewer retention and dropout as episodes progressed. We analyze six individual dramas and a simultaneous analysis of multiple dramas broadcast in 2019. The results show that segments are affected by popularity and growth curve models, as well as differences in viewing rate trends by episode and segment. The findings provide information that can support marketing research and media strategies.

在本研究中，我们重点从个体层面对连续剧的收视行为进行了细分，同时考虑了直播收视和时移收视。特别是，最近许多消费者在节目播出后，除了直播观看外，还进行了时移观看。时移收视在电视剧收视中比较突出，因为电视剧收视可能不那么紧迫。然而，关注个体层面收视选择模型的研究很少考虑时移问题，也没有研究利用细分来分析考虑直播收视和时移的异质收视模式。我们使用多叉概率（MNP）模型来捕捉观看与否和观看方式（直播或时移）。此外，在 MNP 模型中还加入了潜增长曲线模型和潜类模型，以表示随着剧集的播出，观众保留和退出的异质性模式。我们分析了六部单独的电视剧，并对 2019 年播出的多部电视剧进行了同步分析。结果显示，细分市场受到人气和增长曲线模型的影响，不同剧集和细分市场的收视率趋势也存在差异。研究结果提供的信息可为营销研究和媒体战略提供支持。

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引用次数: 0

Analysis of attribute importance in multinomial logit models using Shapley values-based methods 基于Shapley值的多项逻辑模型属性重要性分析方法

IF 2.8 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100538

Patricio Salas , Rodrigo De la Fuente , Sebastian Astroza , Juan Antonio Carrasco

This paper investigates the use of Shapley values-based methods to determine the importance of attributes in discrete choice models, specifically within a Multinomial Logit (MNL) framework. We extend the Shapley decomposition Shorrocks (2013) method from linear models. Additionally, the SHAP method Lundberg and Lee (2017) idea is applied to assess the impact of attributes on individual-level choice probability predictions. A simulation study demonstrates the effectiveness of these approaches under various experimental conditions, including attributes in several ranges and interaction terms. Finally, an empirical application is conducted using well-known travel mode choice datasets. The simulation results show that Shapley values accurately capture the global importance of attributes on goodness-of-fit. The SHAP method provides transparency in MNL model predictions, clarifying how changes in attribute values influence choice probabilities for each decision-maker. These methods offer a complementary perspective to traditional metrics like elasticities and traditional relative importance analysis Orme(2006). In the empirical application, Shapley decomposition highlights the most relevant attributes, while SHAP values uncover individual-level impacts that might not be apparent through elasticities alone. Global and individual-level analysis offers a more comprehensive understanding of attribute importance. In summary, integrating Shapley values with traditional metrics ensures a robust analysis, aiding practitioners and policymakers in making informed decisions based on broad trends and specific impacts.

本文研究了使用基于Shapley值的方法来确定离散选择模型中属性的重要性，特别是在多项式Logit （MNL）框架内。我们从线性模型扩展了Shapley分解Shorrocks（2013）方法。此外，应用SHAP方法Lundberg和Lee（2017）的想法来评估属性对个人层面选择概率预测的影响。仿真研究证明了这些方法在各种实验条件下的有效性，包括几个范围和相互作用项的属性。最后，利用知名的出行方式选择数据集进行了实证应用。仿真结果表明，Shapley值能够准确地捕捉属性在拟合优度上的全局重要性。SHAP方法为MNL模型预测提供了透明度，阐明了属性值的变化如何影响每个决策者的选择概率。这些方法为弹性和传统的相对重要性分析等传统指标提供了补充视角。在实证应用中，Shapley分解突出了最相关的属性，而SHAP值揭示了个人层面的影响，这些影响可能仅通过弹性不明显。整体和个人层面的分析提供了对属性重要性更全面的理解。综上所述，将Shapley价值观与传统指标相结合可确保进行可靠的分析，帮助从业者和政策制定者根据广泛的趋势和具体的影响做出明智的决策。

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引用次数: 0

Control Function Approach for Addressing Endogeneity in Transport Models: A Case Study on the London–Amsterdam Route 解决运输模式内生性问题的控制函数方法：以伦敦-阿姆斯特丹路线为例

IF 2.8 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100537

Thomas E. Guerrero B. , Nicolò Avogadro , Raúl Ramos

Endogeneity is a key empirical challenge in transportation modeling, which may lead to inconsistent estimates and biased policy decisions. This paper investigates the sources of endogeneity and focuses on tackling this issue for a discrete choice model analyzing the multimodal London–Amsterdam route, where air transport and high-speed rail (HSR) compete. Contrary to previous literature, we found no evidence of endogeneity in service frequency for the London–Amsterdam market. This could be attributed to market-specific features, such as feeding considerations, slot retention dynamics, and the congestion of the HSR network, which constrains capacity expansion opportunities. Conversely, we observed that fare introduced endogeneity into the model. To address this issue, we applied the control function approach and proposed two novel instruments: the fare for similar markets and the price of power sources. These instruments proved to be effective in correcting for endogeneity by increasing model performance. We also discuss the adverse impact of neglecting endogeneity and estimate price and frequency elasticities, ultimately demonstrating the significance of dealing with endogeneity in ensuring the reliability of results in transportation studies and appropriately informing policy decisions.

内生性是交通建模中一个关键的经验挑战，它可能导致不一致的估计和有偏见的政策决策。本文研究了内生性的来源，并重点研究了一个分析伦敦-阿姆斯特丹多式联运路线的离散选择模型，其中航空运输和高速铁路（HSR）竞争。与之前的文献相反，我们没有发现伦敦-阿姆斯特丹市场服务频率内生性的证据。这可能归因于市场特定的特征，如进料考虑、槽位保留动态以及高铁网络的拥塞，这些都限制了容量扩张的机会。相反，我们观察到票价引入内生性的模型。为了解决这个问题，我们应用控制函数方法，并提出了两个新的工具：类似市场的票价和电源的价格。这些工具被证明是有效的纠正内生性通过提高模型的性能。我们还讨论了忽视内生性的不利影响，并估计了价格和频率弹性，最终证明了处理内生性在确保运输研究结果可靠性和适当地为政策决策提供信息方面的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model 上下文感知贝叶斯混合多项逻辑模型

IF 2.8 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100536

Mirosława Łukawska, Anders Fjendbo Jensen, Filipe Rodrigues

Traditional choice models often entail the assumption that the preference parameters of the decision-maker are constant throughout time and across different choice situations, which may be too strong for certain choice modelling applications. This paper proposes an effective approach to model systematic, context-dependent heterogeneity, thereby introducing the concept of the context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model (C-MMNL). In this model, a neural network maps contextual information to interpretable shifts in the preference parameters of each individual in each choice occasion. The proposed model offers several key advantages. First, it supports both continuous and discrete variables, as well as complex non-linear interactions between both types of variables. Secondly, each context specification is considered jointly as a whole by the neural network, rather than each variable being considered independently. Finally, since the neural network parameters are shared across all decision-makers, it can leverage information from other decision-makers to infer the effect of a particular context on a particular decision-maker. Even though the context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model allows for flexible interactions between attributes, the increase in computational complexity is minor, compared to the mixed multinomial logit model. We illustrate the concept and interpretation of the proposed model in a simulation study. We furthermore present a real-world case study from the travel behaviour domain — a bicycle route choice model, based on a large-scale, crowdsourced dataset of GPS trajectories including 119,448 trips made by 8555 cyclists.

传统的选择模型通常需要假设决策者的偏好参数在整个时间和不同的选择情况下是恒定的，这对于某些选择建模应用可能太强了。本文提出了一种有效的方法来模拟系统的、上下文相关的异质性，从而引入了上下文感知贝叶斯混合多项逻辑模型（C-MMNL）的概念。在这个模型中，神经网络将上下文信息映射到每个个体在每个选择场合的偏好参数的可解释变化。提出的模型提供了几个关键的优点。首先，它支持连续变量和离散变量，以及两种变量之间复杂的非线性相互作用。其次，神经网络将每个上下文规范作为一个整体来考虑，而不是单独考虑每个变量。最后，由于神经网络参数在所有决策者之间共享，它可以利用来自其他决策者的信息来推断特定上下文对特定决策者的影响。尽管上下文感知的Bayesian混合多项logit模型允许属性之间灵活的交互，但与混合多项logit模型相比，计算复杂性的增加很小。我们在模拟研究中说明了所提出模型的概念和解释。我们进一步提出了一个来自旅行行为领域的现实案例研究——一个自行车路线选择模型，该模型基于一个大规模的、众包的GPS轨迹数据集，包括8555名骑自行车的人的119,448次旅行。

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引用次数: 0

New misspecification tests for multinomial logit models 多项式逻辑模型的新错标检验

IF 2.8 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100531

Dennis Fok, Richard Paap

Multinomial Logit [MNL] models are misspecified when the Independence of Irrelevant Assumption [IIA] does not hold. In this paper we compare existing tests for IIA with two newly proposed tests. Both new tests use that, when MNL is the true model, preferences across pairs of alternatives can be described by independent binary logit models. The first test compares Composite Likelihood parameter estimates based on pairs of alternatives with standard Maximum Likelihood estimates using a Hausman (1978) test. The second is a test for overidentification in a GMM framework using more pairs than necessary. A detailed Monte Carlo study shows that the GMM test is in general superior with respect to the performance under the null and under the alternative hypothesis. An empirical illustration demonstrates the practical usefulness of the tests.

当不相关假设的独立性[IIA]不成立时，多项Logit [MNL]模型被错误地指定。在本文中，我们比较了现有的IIA测试和两个新提出的测试。当MNL是真实模型时，两个新测试都使用了这样的方法，即通过独立的二元logit模型来描述对备选方案的偏好。第一个测试使用Hausman（1978）测试，将基于对备选方案的复合似然参数估计与标准最大似然估计进行比较。第二个测试是在GMM框架中使用比必要更多的对进行过度标识。一项详细的蒙特卡罗研究表明，GMM检验在零假设和备择假设下的性能一般较好。一个实证说明了这些测试的实际用途。

引用次数: 0

Location choice of residential housing supply: An application of the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model 住宅供应地点选择：多元离散-连续极值模型的应用

IF 2.8 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100535

Yu Zhang, Eric J. Miller

The supply location of residential housing is the result of multiple, simultaneous decisions by housing developers. This choice situation can be characterized by the discretionary choice of locations for the housing projects and the amount of housing units to be built at the given locations. Within this context, the modelling of residential housing supply locations, or the allocation of predicted housing supply over space, is a discrete-continuous process. In this paper, we apply a multiple discrete continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model to simultaneously model the location choice and amount of housing supply. The empirical study is conducted in the city of Toronto with a pooled model, and four separated models for each structure type. The prediction results indicate reasonable fits. The developed model can be used to generate housing supply at a given period over space in an urban microsimulation system and serves as a valuable tool for policymakers, urban planners, and researchers in the field of housing supply and urban systems.

住宅的供应位置是住房开发商多重同时决策的结果。这种选择情况的特点是住房项目的地点的自由选择和在给定地点建造的住房单位的数量。在这种背景下，住宅住房供应位置的建模，或预测住房供应在空间上的分配，是一个离散-连续的过程。本文采用多重离散连续极值模型，同时对住房供应的区位选择和数量进行建模。实证研究以多伦多市为研究对象，采用混合模型，每种结构类型分别采用4个独立模型。预测结果拟合合理。该模型可用于在城市微观模拟系统中产生给定时间内的住房供应，并可作为住房供应和城市系统领域的政策制定者、城市规划者和研究人员的宝贵工具。

引用次数: 0

Social finance in emerging markets: Insights into Chinese individual investor preferences with broader implications 新兴市场的社会融资：对中国个人投资者偏好的洞察与更广泛的影响

IF 2.8 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100534

Yaoming Liang , Ruiqi Chen , Senbin Zhang , Hongfu Liu , Li Han

Social finance, which integrates social impact with financial returns, is increasingly recognized as a catalyst for sustainable socio-economic development. This study presents an empirical analysis of Chinese individual investors' preferences for social finance products, using a customized choice experiment. The results reveal a strong investor preference for products with high annualized returns, short investment tenures, a focus on the healthcare sector, government backing, and flexible redemption options. By applying latent class analysis, we identify three distinct investor segments: Flexible Savers, Holistic Benefit Assessors, and Economic Return Seekers. The study also examines how demographic characteristics such as age, education, income, risk tolerance, philanthropic involvement, and awareness of social finance are associated with distinct investor segments. The findings suggest that future efforts should focus on designing social finance products that align with the diverse needs of these investor segments, thereby enhancing the appeal and effectiveness of social finance initiatives. Such tailored strategies could play a pivotal role in mobilizing private capital for social finance, maximizing its potential to drive sustainable socio-economic progress in emerging markets.

社会融资将社会影响与财务回报结合起来，越来越被认为是可持续社会经济发展的催化剂。本研究采用定制选择实验对中国个人投资者对社会金融产品的偏好进行了实证分析。结果显示，投资者强烈偏好具有高年化回报、投资期限短、关注医疗保健行业、政府支持和灵活赎回选择的产品。通过应用潜在类别分析，我们确定了三个不同的投资者群体：灵活储蓄者，整体利益评估者和经济回报寻求者。该研究还考察了年龄、教育程度、收入、风险承受能力、慈善参与和社会金融意识等人口特征如何与不同的投资者群体相关联。研究结果表明，未来的工作应侧重于设计符合这些投资者群体多样化需求的社会金融产品，从而提高社会金融举措的吸引力和有效性。这种量身定制的战略可以在动员私人资本进行社会融资方面发挥关键作用，最大限度地发挥其推动新兴市场可持续社会经济进步的潜力。

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引用次数: 0