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Beyond the status quo: Leveraging reference-dependent theory in a neural network for consumer choice analysis 超越现状:利用神经网络中的参考依赖理论进行消费者选择分析
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100579
Kyungah Kim , Jongsu Lee , Junghun Kim
Setting an appropriate reference point is crucial in reference-dependent choice modeling, as it directly influences the reliability of utility estimates and the interpretation of consumer decision-making. However, many prior studies have relied on generalized or fixed reference points—such as status quo or past experiences—without accounting for individual-level heterogeneity. To address this limitation, this study proposes a reference-dependent artificial neural network (RD-ANN) that integrates the structure of reference-dependent choice models into a neural network framework. RD-ANN is designed to learn individual- and alternative-specific reference points based on consumer and alternative attributes, thereby providing a flexible and data-driven approach to reference point estimation. Empirical validation using smartphone and automobile choice data shows that RD-ANN outperforms benchmark models in various predictive performance metrics including accuracy, recall, precision, and F1 score. The model also captures behavioral patterns such as brand loyalty and status quo bias more effectively. In the empirical contexts considered, RD-ANN was found to better reflect consumer heterogeneity and may help provide more accurate estimates of price sensitivity compared to models using a fixed status quo reference point. These findings suggest that the proposed approach offers a promising direction for integrating behavioral theory and machine learning in discrete choice modeling.
在依赖参考的选择建模中,设置适当的参考点是至关重要的,因为它直接影响效用估计的可靠性和对消费者决策的解释。然而,许多先前的研究依赖于广义的或固定的参考点,如现状或过去的经验,而没有考虑到个体水平的异质性。为了解决这一限制,本研究提出了一种参考依赖人工神经网络(RD-ANN),该网络将参考依赖选择模型的结构集成到一个神经网络框架中。RD-ANN旨在根据消费者和可选属性学习个人和替代特定的参考点,从而提供灵活的数据驱动方法来估计参考点。使用智能手机和汽车选择数据的实证验证表明,RD-ANN在各种预测性能指标上优于基准模型,包括准确性、召回率、精度和F1分数。该模型还能更有效地捕捉品牌忠诚度和现状偏见等行为模式。在考虑的实证背景下,研究发现,与使用固定现状参考点的模型相比,RD-ANN能更好地反映消费者的异质性,并有助于提供更准确的价格敏感性估计。这些发现表明,所提出的方法为离散选择建模中整合行为理论和机器学习提供了一个有希望的方向。
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引用次数: 0
Using Lagrange multiplier type tests to detect structural intra-person heterogeneity in composite marginal likelihood estimation in panel data sets 使用拉格朗日乘数型检验检测面板数据集复合边际似然估计中的结构性内部异质性
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100573
Sebastian Büscher, Dietmar Bauer
Gradient-based Lagrange multiplier-type tests represent a valuable tool for discriminating between nested models, obviating the necessity to estimate the unrestricted model. This is particularly advantageous when testing for pooling in panel data sets, as it permits the testing of multiple groupings without the necessity of re-estimating the model for each grouping. This makes the process considerably faster and more flexible in comparison to Wald or likelihood ratio type tests.
In this paper, we demonstrate that the use of pairwise composite marginal likelihood (CML) estimation enables the comparison of gradients between different CML contributions of pairs of observations for individuals. This allows for the testing of pooling over time, as well as the identification of neglected temporal correlation. The CML approach thus offers a degree of flexibility that is not present in the classical likelihood setting.
Theoretical derivations of the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics under the null hypothesis are provided for the special case of multinomial probit models, thereby forming the basis for the statistical interpretation of the test statistic.
Moreover, a comprehensive simulation study was conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of the test statistics. In particular, the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis and the rejection rates of the tests under various types and degrees of violations of the null hypothesis were evaluated using synthetic panel data sets of varying sizes. This empirical evaluation provides insights into the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed tests in detecting intra-personal heterogeneity and into causes of misspecifications in the deterministic utility structure.
基于梯度的拉格朗日乘数型检验是区分嵌套模型的一种有价值的工具,避免了对不受限制模型进行估计的必要性。当在面板数据集中测试池时,这是特别有利的,因为它允许测试多个分组,而不需要为每个分组重新估计模型。与Wald或似然比类型测试相比,这使得该过程更加快速和灵活。在本文中,我们证明了使用成对复合边际似然(CML)估计可以比较个体对观测值的不同CML贡献之间的梯度。这允许测试池随着时间的推移,以及识别被忽视的时间相关性。因此,CML方法提供了经典似然设置中不存在的一定程度的灵活性。对于多项式概率模型的特殊情况,给出了零假设下检验统计量渐近分布的理论推导,从而为检验统计量的统计解释奠定了基础。此外,还进行了全面的仿真研究,以评估测试统计量的有限样本性能。特别是,使用不同大小的合成面板数据集评估了零假设下检验统计量的分布以及不同类型和违反零假设程度下检验的拒绝率。这一实证评估提供了洞察的有效性和可靠性,在检测个人内部异质性和确定性效用结构的错误说明的原因所提出的测试。
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引用次数: 0
A novel algorithm for drawing nested extreme value random variables 一种绘制嵌套极值随机变量的新算法
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100575
Wilbur Townsend
This paper presents an algorithm for drawing nested extreme value random variables — i.e., the variable used in the latent variable formulation of the nested logit model. Runtime is linear in both the number of alternatives and the number of nests. An R package, nev, implements the algorithm.
本文提出了一种绘制嵌套极值随机变量(即嵌套logit模型中潜在变量公式中使用的变量)的算法。运行时在可选的数量和巢的数量上都是线性的。一个R包实现了这个算法。
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引用次数: 0
Can an ‘informed’ general population sample be comparable to a patient sample? A case study of preferences for chemotherapy induced peripheral neuropathy “知情”的一般人群样本是否可以与患者样本相比较?化疗诱导周围神经病变的个例研究
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100577
Alice Yu, Rosalie Viney, Stephen Goodall, Deborah J. Street

Background

In health care preference studies, a general population sample may be the only viable option. However, they lack the understanding of treatment/care of patient samples. This study investigated the impact of providing extra information on general population comprehension of discrete choice experiment (DCE) choice sets. Preferences were compared between an informed and ‘naïve’ general population sample and a patient sample. This was investigated in the context of eliciting preferences for features of a chemotherapy induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) assessment tool.

Methods

A general population sample was randomised to two arms. Arm 1 (N = 167) received written information and some pictures about CIPN and Arm 2 (N = 168) received extra information in the form of a short video and moving images. These responses were compared to a patient sample (N = 117) that received the same information as Arm 1. All respondents completed 8 choice sets each.

Results

Arms 1 and 2 of the general population sample had no preference differences, although respondents in Arm 2 had an easier time identifying differences between assessment options than those in Arm 1. The patient and general population sample had overlapping preferences for some attribute parameters, while differences were more in terms of strength of preference rather than differences in preferences.

Conclusions

Extra information can improve general population understanding of DCE choice sets. However, it was not found to bring general population preferences closer to the patient sample. This has implications when considering willingness to pay by patients versus general population.
在医疗保健偏好研究中,一般人群样本可能是唯一可行的选择。然而,他们缺乏对患者样本治疗/护理的理解。本研究探讨了提供额外信息对离散选择实验(DCE)选择集的一般群体理解的影响。在知情和“naïve”的一般人群样本和患者样本之间比较偏好。这是在引发对化疗诱导周围神经病变(CIPN)评估工具特征的偏好的背景下进行的研究。方法一般人群随机分为两组。第1组(N = 167)接受书面信息和一些CIPN的图片,第2组(N = 168)接受短视频和运动图像的额外信息。这些反应与接受与第1组相同信息的患者样本(N = 117)进行比较。所有被调查者每人完成8组选择题。结果一般人群样本的第1组和第2组没有偏好差异,尽管第2组的受访者比第1组的受访者更容易识别评估选项之间的差异。患者和一般人群样本对某些属性参数的偏好有重叠,而差异更多的是偏好的强度,而不是偏好的差异。结论额外的信息可以提高一般人群对DCE选择集的理解。然而,并没有发现它使一般人群的偏好更接近患者样本。在考虑患者与一般人群的支付意愿时,这有一定的含义。
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引用次数: 0
A smooth bounded choice model: Formulation and application in three large-scale case studies 光滑有界选择模型:在三个大规模案例研究中的表述和应用
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100574
Laurent Cazor , Lawrence Christopher Duncan , David Paul Watling , Otto Anker Nielsen , Thomas Kjær Rasmussen
One-stage (implicit) choice set formation models offer a computationally efficient way to model how individuals consider alternatives. Among these, the Bounded Choice Model (BCM) stands out for its consistent, utility-based cutoffs. However, the BCM is non-differentiable, which limits its usefulness: key outputs such as elasticities and standard errors cannot be computed analytically. To overcome this, we introduce the Smooth Bounded Choice Model (SBCM). This model assumes a new smooth truncated logistic distribution for the error terms and applies a smooth approximation to the maximum function used in defining the reference utility. As a result, the SBCM is infinitely differentiable, while preserving core features of the BCM, such as bounding, continuity, and the ability to collapse to the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model under specific conditions. Importantly, the SBCM is not just a smoother version of the BCM. Its more flexible distributional assumptions can better capture actual choice behaviour and allow for meaningful differences in predicted probabilities. We derive closed-form expressions for choice probabilities, gradients, Hessians, elasticities, and standard errors, and present a practical estimation method. The SBCM is tested in three case studies: one mode choice and two route choice settings (bicycle and public transport). In all cases, it outperforms both the BCM and MNL in terms of model fit and interpretability. While the BCM has so far been limited to car route choice, we show that the SBCM is widely applicable across various discrete choice contexts.
单阶段(隐式)选择集形成模型提供了一种计算效率高的方法来模拟个体如何考虑备选方案。其中,有界选择模型(BCM)因其一致的、基于效用的截止点而脱颖而出。然而,BCM是不可微的,这限制了它的实用性:关键输出,如弹性和标准误差不能解析计算。为了克服这个问题,我们引入了平滑有界选择模型(SBCM)。该模型假设误差项为新的平滑截断逻辑分布,并对定义参考效用时使用的最大函数应用平滑近似值。因此,SBCM是无限可微的,同时保留了BCM的核心特征,如边界、连续性和在特定条件下坍缩为多项式Logit (MNL)模型的能力。重要的是,SBCM不仅仅是BCM的平滑版本。它更灵活的分布假设可以更好地捕捉实际的选择行为,并允许在预测概率上有意义的差异。我们推导了选择概率、梯度、黑森、弹性和标准误差的封闭表达式,并提出了一种实用的估计方法。SBCM在三个案例研究中进行了测试:一种模式选择和两种路线选择设置(自行车和公共交通)。在所有情况下,它在模型拟合和可解释性方面都优于BCM和MNL。虽然BCM到目前为止仅限于汽车路线选择,但我们表明SBCM广泛适用于各种离散选择环境。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the decision-making process of choice modellers 理解选择建模者的决策过程
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100562
Gabriel Nova , Sander van Cranenburgh , Stephane Hess
Choice Modelling is a widely used framework for understanding human choice behaviour across disciplines. Building a choice model is a complex, semi-structured process that involves a combination of prior assumptions, behavioural theories, and statistical methods. This complex set of decisions, coupled with diverse workflows, can lead to substantial variability in model outcomes. To investigate these modelling processes, we introduce the Discrete Choice Modelling Serious Game (DCM-SG), a novel tool that mimics the workflow of choice modellers and tracks the modelling decisions participants make. In our application, participants developed models to estimate willingness-to-pay values for reducing noise pollution. Their actions were tracked, enabling analysis of workflow patterns and modelling strategies. Forty participants, most with over five years of experience, completed the game. Our contributions are twofold. Methodologically, the DCM-SG captures sequential data on modellers’ workflows, which we analyse using telemetry and sequential pattern mining techniques to uncover dynamic patterns of in-game tool usage, phase transitions, and model specification approaches. Substantively, there was a strong preference for data visualisation and frequent specification of simpler models (Multinomial Logit), alongside attempts to specify more complex models. These findings suggest that in time-constrained or resource-limited settings, modellers may underexplore important factors such as covariates, non-linearities, and complex specifications. Moreover, participants who engaged more thoroughly in data exploration and iterative model comparison consistently achieved superior model fit and parsimony. These results demonstrate how sequential data from the DCM-SG can uncover variations in modelling practices and provide a foundation for understanding the art of choice modelling.
选择模型是一个广泛使用的框架,用于理解跨学科的人类选择行为。建立选择模型是一个复杂的、半结构化的过程,涉及到先验假设、行为理论和统计方法的结合。这种复杂的决策集,加上不同的工作流程,会导致模型结果的大量变化。为了研究这些建模过程,我们引入了离散选择建模严肃博弈(DCM-SG),这是一种模仿选择建模者工作流程并跟踪参与者建模决策的新工具。在我们的应用中,参与者开发了模型来估计减少噪音污染的支付意愿值。他们的行为被跟踪,从而能够分析工作流程模式和建模策略。40名参与者完成了这款游戏,其中大多数都有5年以上的经验。我们的贡献是双重的。在方法上,DCM-SG捕获建模人员工作流程上的顺序数据,我们使用遥测和顺序模式挖掘技术对其进行分析,以揭示游戏内工具使用、相变和模型规范方法的动态模式。从本质上讲,人们更倾向于数据可视化和简单模型(多项式Logit)的频繁规范,同时试图指定更复杂的模型。这些发现表明,在时间有限或资源有限的情况下,建模者可能没有充分考虑协变量、非线性和复杂规格等重要因素。此外,更深入地参与数据探索和迭代模型比较的参与者一致地获得了更好的模型拟合和简约性。这些结果展示了DCM-SG的顺序数据如何揭示建模实践中的变化,并为理解选择建模的艺术提供了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Tri-reference-point framework for analyzing air-rail passenger airport access behaviour 分析空铁旅客机场通行行为的三参考点框架
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100565
Wenqian Zou , Yiming Zheng , Shengguo Gao , Yonglei Jiang
This study introduces a tri-reference-point framework to analyze air-rail passengers' airport ground access behaviour, using advisory, earliest, and mandatory latest airport arrival times as key reference points. Leveraging revealed preference data from Dalian Airport in China, this model examines how deviations from instructive arrival timings, rather than total ground access time, influence passenger choices among available high-speed rail (HSR) options. Compared to the traditional multinomial logit (MNL) model, the proposed approach better captures these behaviours, showing that passengers prioritize timing relative to advisory intervals. This framework also provides insights into evaluating the suitability of HSR options for air-rail integrated services.
本研究引入了一个三参考点框架来分析空铁乘客的机场地面访问行为,使用咨询,最早和强制性最新机场到达时间作为关键参考点。利用来自中国大连机场的显示偏好数据,该模型考察了指导性到达时间的偏差,而不是总地面访问时间,如何影响乘客在可用高铁(HSR)选项中的选择。与传统的多项logit (MNL)模型相比,所提出的方法更好地捕捉了这些行为,表明乘客优先考虑与通知间隔相关的时间。该框架还为评估高铁方案对空铁综合服务的适用性提供了见解。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying the value of carbon label information in food choice using drift diffusion modelling 用漂移扩散模型量化碳标签信息在食品选择中的价值
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100564
Yu Shuang Gan, Neal Stuart Hinvest
The use of carbon labels as an intervention to increase more sustainable food consumption has seen many mixed results, with some studies showing that consumers do not utilise the carbon labels in their decisions. To address the mixed results in the literature, we present a novel and in-depth evaluation of how carbon labels work by quantifying the importance of carbon label information relative to taste preferences in food decisions via a computational modelling approach. Participants (n = 48) were presented with multiple trials of two sandwiches alongside their carbon labels. Participants' choice and response time were recorded whilst visual attention was tracked with an eye-tracking device. The Multi-attribute Attentional Drift Diffusion Model (maaDDM) was fitted to data through Bayesian STAN modelling in R. The analysis revealed that carbon labels were used to a moderate extent similar to individual taste preference in choosing sandwiches, but the extent of use varied as a function of participant's perception of the negative impact of GHG emissions (the more negative perception, the greater use of carbon labels). We further explore the insights gained from maaDDM on participant's information sampling behaviour, and discuss the implications for policies to identify a critical valuation threshold of carbon labels.
使用碳标签作为一种干预措施来增加更可持续的食品消费已经看到了许多不同的结果,一些研究表明,消费者在他们的决定中并不使用碳标签。为了解决文献中的混合结果,我们通过计算建模方法量化碳标签信息相对于食物决策中口味偏好的重要性,提出了一种新颖而深入的碳标签如何工作的评估。参与者(n = 48)多次尝试两种三明治,并附上碳标签。参与者的选择和反应时间被记录下来,同时用眼球追踪设备追踪视觉注意力。多属性注意力漂移扩散模型(maaDDM)通过贝叶斯STAN模型在r中拟合数据。分析表明,碳标签在选择三明治时的使用程度中等,类似于个人口味偏好,但使用程度随参与者对温室气体排放负面影响的感知而变化(越负面的感知,碳标签的使用越多)。我们进一步探讨了从maaDDM中获得的关于参与者信息采样行为的见解,并讨论了确定碳标签关键估值阈值的政策含义。
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引用次数: 0
A method to integrate strategic alignment in freight transportation behavioral models 货运行为模型中整合战略结盟的方法
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100563
Monique Stinson , Abolfazl (Kouros) Mohammadian
Companies use high-level strategies to guide their decision-making and maintain strategic alignment in their actions. For example, companies may adopt a strategy of providing excellent customer service and own a private truck fleet, giving the company complete control over delivery. Despite its relevance, the concept of strategic alignment is a major omission in existing freight transportation models. In this study, we develop a methodology to integrate strategic alignment into agent-based, freight transportation models. We first identify a suitable modification to the typical agent-based structure, then outline a conceptual model relating strategy to strategic decisions. We develop a mathematical formulation to operationalize the conceptual model by introducing latent variables, which represent strategies, into the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) formulation, permitting a mix of continuous and Tobit equations. The new method is named SURTLV (Seemingly Unrelated Regression of Tobit Equations with Latent Variables). Our methodology offers many powerful features for forecasting. Binary, continuous, and contingent decisions are modeled. Choice set generation parameters are modeled as strategic decisions. Strategic decisions are modeled jointly, which acknowledges their interrelationships. Bayesian estimation with Gibbs sampling supports rich model specifications. In an empirical demonstration, we apply SURTLV to simulate a nationwide network of distribution centers and private fleets using real-world data of Fortune 500 companies. Our latent strategy measurement data come from parallel work, featuring the first real-world implementation of a novel, Natural Language Processing-based measurement generation method.
公司使用高级战略来指导他们的决策,并在他们的行动中保持战略一致性。例如,公司可以采用提供优质客户服务的策略,并拥有私人卡车车队,从而完全控制交货。尽管其相关性,战略对齐的概念是一个重大遗漏在现有的货运模式。在本研究中,我们开发了一种方法,将战略结盟整合到基于代理的货运模型中。我们首先确定了对典型的基于主体的结构的适当修改,然后概述了一个与战略决策相关的概念模型。我们开发了一个数学公式,通过将代表策略的潜在变量引入看似无关回归(SUR)公式来实现概念模型的操作,允许连续和Tobit方程的混合。这种新方法被命名为SURTLV(看似无关回归的Tobit方程与潜在变量)。我们的方法为预测提供了许多强大的功能。对二元决策、连续决策和偶然决策进行建模。选择集生成参数被建模为战略决策。战略决策是联合建模的,这承认了它们之间的相互关系。贝叶斯估计与吉布斯抽样支持丰富的模型规格。在实证论证中,我们使用财富500强公司的真实数据,应用SURTLV来模拟一个全国性的配送中心和私人车队网络。我们的潜在策略测量数据来自并行工作,这是基于自然语言处理的测量生成方法在现实世界中的首次实现。
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引用次数: 0
Mitigating hypothetical bias in choice Experiments: An in-depth review on the use of cheap talk 减轻选择实验中的假设偏差:对廉价话语使用的深入回顾
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100561
Vilma Xhakollari , Daniele Asioli , Rodolfo M. Nayga
Cheap Talk is one of the most popular techniques used to mitigate hypothetical bias in choice experiments, but there is uncertainty about how it is used by researchers, and its effectiveness. We reviewed and explored in-depth how cheap talk is used and how effective it is in mitigating hypothetical bias by examining 172 articles in the literature using a systematic review. The results show that cheap talk is largely used in choice experiment studies, but only a minority of articles make the cheap talk scripts available to the readers. Furthermore, we found that there is a large heterogeneity on how the cheap talk script is used by researchers in terms of length, words used, structure, and its effectiveness. This review provides useful insights about the implementation of cheap talk in choice experiments as well as outline several future research avenues that could be useful in improving the validity and reliability of data collected using hypothetical choice experiments.
在选择实验中,廉价谈话是用来减轻假设偏差的最流行的技术之一,但研究人员如何使用它以及它的有效性存在不确定性。我们通过对文献中的172篇文章进行系统回顾,回顾并深入探讨了廉价言论是如何被使用的,以及它在减轻假设偏见方面的效果如何。结果表明,在选择实验研究中,廉价谈话被大量使用,但只有少数文章将廉价谈话脚本提供给读者。此外,我们发现研究人员在使用廉价谈话脚本的长度、使用的单词、结构和有效性方面存在很大的异质性。这篇综述提供了关于在选择实验中实施廉价谈话的有用见解,并概述了几个未来的研究途径,这些途径可能有助于提高使用假设选择实验收集的数据的有效性和可靠性。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Choice Modelling
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