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Return and volatility connectedness among US and Latin American markets: A QVAR approach with implications for hedging and portfolio diversification
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101094
Saswat Patra , Kunjana Malik
This study examines return and volatility connectedness among major Latin American markets and the US using the Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) approach. We analyze spillovers at the median and extreme tails. Results reveal moderate integration at the median, with higher interconnectedness at both tails. We find that volatility spillovers are slightly greater at right tails, and spillovers peaked during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Return spillovers generally exceed volatility spillovers. Argentina and Chile are net receivers, while Brazil, Mexico, and the US are net transmitters. Based on the Minimum Connectedness Portfolio and the dynamic hedge ratio, Chile offers the cheapest hedge, while US is the most effective for risk reduction.
本研究采用量子向量自回归(QVAR)方法研究了拉美主要市场与美国之间的收益率和波动率关联性。我们分析了中位数和极端尾数的溢出效应。结果显示,中位数的整合程度适中,两个尾部的相互关联度较高。我们发现,右侧尾部的波动溢出效应略大,溢出效应在 2008 年全球金融危机期间达到顶峰。收益溢出效应通常超过波动溢出效应。阿根廷和智利是净接受者,而巴西、墨西哥和美国则是净传播者。根据最小关联度组合和动态对冲比率,智利的对冲成本最低,而美国对降低风险最有效。
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引用次数: 0
The evolution of the relationship between onshore and offshore RMB markets under asymmetric volatility spillovers
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101086
Jie Li , Aaron D. Smallwood
The exchange rate system in China is unique, as onshore and offshore markets exist for a single currency. This paper investigates the evolution of information transmission for each market and explores their relative roles in driving price discovery and volatility spillovers as the RMB becomes more market oriented. We find that onshore returns and volatilities are increasingly influenced by the offshore market, with differences across various exchange rate policy phases. Using a novel method to capture asymmetric spillovers, the findings also show that the volatility of the onshore market is much more susceptible to offshore shocks when the RMB depreciates. To determine the factors influencing the strength of volatility spillovers, we provide additional regression analysis. The results show that capital flows and the degree of intervention are important determinants of information flows under unexpected RMB weakness in recent samples.
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引用次数: 0
Managing man and machine: Automation potential and labor investment efficiency
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101085
Sharif Mazumder , Leonid Pugachev
We study how a firm's ability to automate affects its labor investment efficiency (LIE). Companies with greater automation potential (AP), measured by share of routine task labor, invest more efficiently. They exhibit both lower propensity to over- and under-invest, as well as lower intensity of over- and under-investment, conditional on its occurrence. Using the catastrophic 2011 Thai flooding as an exogenous shock to AP, we find evidence that the relationship between AP and LIE is likely causal. AP appears to spur (hamper) employment growth in good (bad) economic states. We are the first to show that AP leads firms toward more efficient labor investment.
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引用次数: 0
CEO casting call: Investor attention to corporate leadership appointments
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101083
Katarzyna Byrka-Kita , Mateusz Czerwiński , Stephen P. Ferris , Agnieszka Preś-Perepeczo , Tomasz Wiśniewski
In this study we explore the effect of investor attention on trading volume around announcements of CEO appointments. Using hand-collected data on CEO turnovers for publicly traded Polish firms during 2000–2016, we find that investors generally neglect announcements of CEO reappointments. But when we introduce behavioural-based trading strategies focused on momentum, we discover that trading volume reacts to announcements of these appointments. Further, we observe that investors respond most strongly to CEO reappointments that are accompanied by recent stock price increases. This study offers the first volume-based evidence supporting the moderating role of CEO appointment announcements on investor trading.
{"title":"CEO casting call: Investor attention to corporate leadership appointments","authors":"Katarzyna Byrka-Kita ,&nbsp;Mateusz Czerwiński ,&nbsp;Stephen P. Ferris ,&nbsp;Agnieszka Preś-Perepeczo ,&nbsp;Tomasz Wiśniewski","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101083","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101083","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study we explore the effect of investor attention on trading volume around announcements of CEO appointments. Using hand-collected data on CEO turnovers for publicly traded Polish firms during 2000–2016, we find that investors generally neglect announcements of CEO reappointments. But when we introduce behavioural-based trading strategies focused on momentum, we discover that trading volume reacts to announcements of these appointments. Further, we observe that investors respond most strongly to CEO reappointments that are accompanied by recent stock price increases. This study offers the first volume-based evidence supporting the moderating role of CEO appointment announcements on investor trading.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 101083"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143233024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The “night effect” of intraday trading: Evidence from Chinese gold and silver futures markets
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101084
Gaoping Ma , Elie Bouri , Yahua Xu , Z. Ivy Zhou
This paper analyses the “night effect”, reflecting the introduction of night trading, on intraday trading patterns in the Chinese precious metals futures markets. The main results are summarized as follows: Firstly, both intraday momentum and reversal effect are significant. Secondly, before the launch of night trading, the first half-hour daytime returns have significant predictive power, whereas after the introduction of night trading, the first half-hour night returns become a significant predictor. This change can be attributed to the immediate reactions of domestic investors to international news released in the night session. Thirdly, the driving force of intraday predictability is demonstrated by evidence showing that intraday reversals are mainly driven by liquidity oversupply offered by irrational uninformed traders. Fourthly, the market timing strategy outperforms the always-long and buy-and-hold benchmark strategies. Overall, this study reveals that the introduction of night trading significantly alters intraday return predictability patterns of Chinese precious metals futures markets, benefiting regulators by highlighting the need for enhanced overnight market monitoring.
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric tail risk dynamics, efficiency and risk spillover among FinTech stocks, cryptocurrencies and traditional assets
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101082
Mohammad Abdullah , Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury , G.M. Wali Ullah
This study inspects the asymmetric tail risk dynamics, efficiency, and interconnectedness among FinTech stocks, cryptocurrencies, and traditional assets. Firstly, we employ the Multifractal-Asymmetric Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis to examine the cross-correlation patterns and efficiency dynamics of the analyzed assets. The findings reveal asymmetries in cross-correlations and the presence of multifractality, highlighting the nonlinear relationships among these assets and find FinTech assets are the most efficient. Secondly, we utilize the time domain quantile connectedness method to investigate tail risk connectedness, offering insights into the network's shock transmission and spillover effects. Our analysis identifies the major risk transmitters (FinTech stocks) and receivers (bond), emphasizing the interconnectedness of the assets. Additionally, the study conducts bivariate portfolio analysis, considering short and long investment horizons, to guide asset allocation and hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for facilitating informed investment strategies and improving the stability and resilience of financial markets.
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引用次数: 0
Supply chain contagion effects of negative CSR events: A stock market reaction perspective
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101080
Jinyan Shi , Mengzhu Deng , Jimeng Yang , Rongjia Zhang
Negative corporate social responsibility (CSR) events substantially expose supply chains to risk. Understanding the effects of such events on suppliers and customers is crucial for strengthening the resilience of supply chain systems. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2016 to 2021, we employ the event study method to demonstrate that negative CSR events create a contagion effect in supply chains. Such contagion effect is asymmetric, affecting the capital market performance of customers more negatively than it does that of suppliers. Further analysis indicates that both the closeness of supply chain relationships and the level of economic policy uncertainty reinforce the contagion effect. The mechanism analysis suggests that the contagion effect originates from the damaged reputation of suppliers or customers and the reduction in shared investment value. In addition, the contagion effect is stronger when the core company is nonstate-owned and has a lower social responsibility score. These findings contribute to the understanding of CSR contagion effects from the perspective of supply chain relationships. Meanwhile, our study highlights that companies can focus on CSR events to strengthen their supply chain CSR management and improve the overall security and stability of supply chain systems.
{"title":"Supply chain contagion effects of negative CSR events: A stock market reaction perspective","authors":"Jinyan Shi ,&nbsp;Mengzhu Deng ,&nbsp;Jimeng Yang ,&nbsp;Rongjia Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Negative corporate social responsibility (CSR) events substantially expose supply chains to risk. Understanding the effects of such events on suppliers and customers is crucial for strengthening the resilience of supply chain systems. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2016 to 2021, we employ the event study method to demonstrate that negative CSR events create a contagion effect in supply chains. Such contagion effect is asymmetric, affecting the capital market performance of customers more negatively than it does that of suppliers. Further analysis indicates that both the closeness of supply chain relationships and the level of economic policy uncertainty reinforce the contagion effect. The mechanism analysis suggests that the contagion effect originates from the damaged reputation of suppliers or customers and the reduction in shared investment value. In addition, the contagion effect is stronger when the core company is nonstate-owned and has a lower social responsibility score. These findings contribute to the understanding of CSR contagion effects from the perspective of supply chain relationships. Meanwhile, our study highlights that companies can focus on CSR events to strengthen their supply chain CSR management and improve the overall security and stability of supply chain systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 101080"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143169346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantile return connectedness of theme factors and portfolio implications: Evidence from the US and China
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101079
Huai-Long Shi , Huayi Chen
Understanding factor interplay is crucial for effective portfolio management and risk mitigation. This study delves into quantile return connectedness among theme factors in the US and Chinese markets through static and dynamic analyses. In our static analysis, we examine the raw, conditional, and aggregate connectedness across various conditional return quantiles. A bootstrap residual process is conducted to identify statistically significant results. Our findings reveal marked disparities in significant transmitters and receivers across different conditional quantiles. Furthermore, there are notable contrasts in significant results between raw and conditional connectedness measures. For different connectedness measures, we observe a U-shaped relationship between total connectedness and conditional quantiles, underscoring the varying degrees of interplay among theme factors under different market conditions. In the dynamic analysis, we evaluate the performance of the minimum connectedness portfolio (MCoP), built utilizing time-varying connectedness information. The MCoP, built using left-tail connectedness information, demonstrates superior performance compared to its peers — the minimum conditional correlation portfolio and the minimum variance portfolio — in terms of the Sortino ratio and cumulative returns. Our study holds substantial implications for asset allocation, risk management strategies, and policy formulation. It provides valuable insights for constructing robust portfolios and enhancing overall market stability.
{"title":"Quantile return connectedness of theme factors and portfolio implications: Evidence from the US and China","authors":"Huai-Long Shi ,&nbsp;Huayi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding factor interplay is crucial for effective portfolio management and risk mitigation. This study delves into quantile return connectedness among theme factors in the US and Chinese markets through static and dynamic analyses. In our static analysis, we examine the raw, conditional, and aggregate connectedness across various conditional return quantiles. A bootstrap residual process is conducted to identify statistically significant results. Our findings reveal marked disparities in significant transmitters and receivers across different conditional quantiles. Furthermore, there are notable contrasts in significant results between raw and conditional connectedness measures. For different connectedness measures, we observe a U-shaped relationship between total connectedness and conditional quantiles, underscoring the varying degrees of interplay among theme factors under different market conditions. In the dynamic analysis, we evaluate the performance of the minimum connectedness portfolio (MCoP), built utilizing time-varying connectedness information. The MCoP, built using left-tail connectedness information, demonstrates superior performance compared to its peers — the minimum conditional correlation portfolio and the minimum variance portfolio — in terms of the Sortino ratio and cumulative returns. Our study holds substantial implications for asset allocation, risk management strategies, and policy formulation. It provides valuable insights for constructing robust portfolios and enhancing overall market stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 101079"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143169336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital economy, official promotion pressure, and firm innovation
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101078
Jianhui Mao , Bo Yu , Chao Guan
Currently, China's economic cycle is experiencing instability, and the pressure for economic growth is increasing. The digital economy is crucial for China's economic breakthrough and industrial transformation. Literature generally suggests that the digital economy can boost the economy at the macro level and improve the total factor productivity (TFP) of firms at the micro level. The significant role of the digital economy in promoting firm technological innovation highlights the importance of studying its impact on firm innovation. Using microdata from China's listed companies from 2013 to 2022 and meso data from prefecture-level cities, this paper innovatively incorporates the unique factor of official promotion pressure in China into the analytical framework, and empirically analyzes the impact of the digital economy on firm innovation and its underlying mechanisms using a panel model. The results show: (1) The digital economy effectively promotes firm innovation, and this conclusion holds after a series of robustness tests. (2) Official promotion pressure plays a key role in the digital economy's impact on firm innovation. The greater the promotion pressure on local officials, the more the digital economy fosters firm innovation. (3) The impact of the digital economy on firm innovation is heterogeneous. It significantly promotes innovation in large firms, emerging firms, eastern regions, and regions with a good business environment. However, its impact on small firms, established firms, central and western regions, and regions with poor business environments is weak or insignificant. (4) Mechanistically, the digital economy primarily promotes innovation by affecting firms with large financing scales and low levels of R&D investment. This paper recommends optimizing the performance appraisal system for local officials, formulating region-specific policies, and promoting the deep integration of the digital economy with firms to enhance their innovation capacity.
{"title":"Digital economy, official promotion pressure, and firm innovation","authors":"Jianhui Mao ,&nbsp;Bo Yu ,&nbsp;Chao Guan","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101078","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101078","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Currently, China's economic cycle is experiencing instability, and the pressure for economic growth is increasing. The digital economy is crucial for China's economic breakthrough and industrial transformation. Literature generally suggests that the digital economy can boost the economy at the macro level and improve the total factor productivity (TFP) of firms at the micro level. The significant role of the digital economy in promoting firm technological innovation highlights the importance of studying its impact on firm innovation. Using microdata from China's listed companies from 2013 to 2022 and <em>meso</em> data from prefecture-level cities, this paper innovatively incorporates the unique factor of official promotion pressure in China into the analytical framework, and empirically analyzes the impact of the digital economy on firm innovation and its underlying mechanisms using a panel model. The results show: (1) The digital economy effectively promotes firm innovation, and this conclusion holds after a series of robustness tests. (2) Official promotion pressure plays a key role in the digital economy's impact on firm innovation. The greater the promotion pressure on local officials, the more the digital economy fosters firm innovation. (3) The impact of the digital economy on firm innovation is heterogeneous. It significantly promotes innovation in large firms, emerging firms, eastern regions, and regions with a good business environment. However, its impact on small firms, established firms, central and western regions, and regions with poor business environments is weak or insignificant. (4) Mechanistically, the digital economy primarily promotes innovation by affecting firms with large financing scales and low levels of R&amp;D investment. This paper recommends optimizing the performance appraisal system for local officials, formulating region-specific policies, and promoting the deep integration of the digital economy with firms to enhance their innovation capacity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 101078"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143169348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can sustainable financing facilitate the energy justice transformation? Evidence from developing countries in Asia
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101081
Yang Liu , Kangyin Dong , Rabindra Nepal
The transformation of energy systems towards justice in developing countries has attracted widespread attention. However, empirical evidence on whether sustainable financing drives this transformation remains limited. This study innovatively explores the impact of sustainable financing on promoting just energy transitions, focusing on developing countries in Asia where sustainable financing is thriving and energy transition is advancing rapidly. Our research indicates that sustainable financing promotes energy justice transitions, particularly in regions with more advanced transitions and robust financial systems. We also find that improving governance quality and human capital enhances the positive impact of sustainable financing. Additionally, sustainable financing indirectly promotes energy justice transitions by fostering green innovations. These findings provide empirical evidence and practical implications for policymakers to promote just energy transitions in developing Asian countries.
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引用次数: 0
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