Global Finance Journal最新文献

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Sailing through uncertainty: Shipping's role in financial shock transmission and hedging strategies 航行不确定性：航运在金融冲击传导和对冲策略中的作用

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101159

Spyros Papathanasiou, Theodore Syriopoulos, Dimitris Kenourgios, Drosos Koutsokostas

Given shipping's pivotal role in global trade, this study investigates interdependencies between the Baltic Dry Index and various financial and commodity markets, including equities, bonds, real estate, currency, bitcoin, crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, copper, and zinc. Using the R² decomposed connectedness approach for the period 1/1/2012–1/31/2025, the analysis reveals moderate volatility spillovers, notably amplified by geopolitical conflict more than the health crisis. Key findings identify gold and equities as primary shock emitters, while currency and bonds function as major receivers. Shipping generally displays neutral behavior within the network. Portfolio analysis shows that most sampled assets significantly reduce risk for shipping investors. Conversely, shipping effectively minimizes risk for bitcoin and natural gas portfolios. Significant heterogeneity in hedging effectiveness is documented across distinct crisis episodes. These results underscore the imperative for shipping investors to employ tailored hedging strategies and offer policymakers insight into shipping's contained systemic footprint on contagion dynamics.

鉴于航运在全球贸易中的关键作用，本研究调查了波罗的海干散货运价指数与各种金融和大宗商品市场之间的相互依赖关系，包括股票、债券、房地产、货币、比特币、原油、天然气、黄金、白银、铜和锌。利用2012年1月1日至2025年1月31日期间的R2分解连通性方法，分析显示波动性溢出适度，地缘政治冲突比卫生危机更明显地放大了波动性溢出。主要研究发现，黄金和股票是主要的冲击发起者，而货币和债券则是主要的接受者。航运通常在网络中显示中立的行为。投资组合分析表明，大多数抽样资产显著降低了航运投资者的风险。相反，航运有效地降低了比特币和天然气投资组合的风险。在不同的危机事件中记录了对冲有效性的显著异质性。这些结果强调了航运投资者采用量身定制的对冲策略的必要性，并为政策制定者提供了深入了解航运对传染动态的系统性影响的见解。

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引用次数: 0

When ESG news talks: How media sentiment shapes corporate financial behavior in China ESG新闻讨论：媒体情绪如何影响中国企业的财务行为

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101161

Weijie Tan , Yiqian Liu , Mingming Teng

News sentiment affects company practices. Using Baidu News reports spanning 2007–2022 on Chinese A-share listed companies as text data and machine learning and text analysis methods, this study measures environmental, social, and governance (ESG) news sentiment indices. This study examines the impact of ESG news sentiment on corporate financial asset allocation. Findings reveal that optimistic ESG news sentiment has a significant negative impact on corporate financial asset allocation. Mechanism analysis indicates that ESG news sentiment can restrain corporate financialization by facilitating corporate access to ESG-related financial support, reducing operational risks, and promoting real investments, which weakens risk aversion and profit-seeking motives. Further analysis reveals that the financialization governance function of ESG news sentiment is more prominent for private enterprises, during nonrecession periods, and for heavily polluting enterprises. Moreover, it is significant in regions with superior digital financial development and higher ESG governance intensity. From the perspective of ESG news content and information, the environmental and governance dimensions of news sentiment and neutral ESG news attention exhibit stronger financialization suppression effects. This study provides a new perspective for addressing financialization concerns and demonstrates the supervisory influence of the media on corporate sustainability.

新闻情绪影响公司的做法。本研究以百度News 2007-2022年对中国a股上市公司的报道为文本数据，采用机器学习和文本分析方法，测量环境、社会和治理（ESG）新闻情绪指数。本研究探讨ESG新闻情绪对企业金融资产配置的影响。研究发现，乐观的ESG新闻情绪对企业金融资产配置具有显著的负向影响。机制分析表明，ESG新闻情绪可以通过促进企业获得ESG相关的金融支持、降低经营风险、促进实体投资来抑制企业金融化，从而削弱风险规避和追求利润的动机。进一步分析发现，ESG新闻情绪的金融化治理功能在民营企业、非衰退期和重污染企业中更为突出。在数字金融发展水平较高、ESG治理强度较高的地区具有显著性。从ESG新闻内容和信息的角度来看，新闻情绪和中性ESG新闻关注的环境和治理维度表现出更强的金融化抑制作用。本研究为解决金融化问题提供了一个新的视角，并证明了媒体对公司可持续性的监管影响。

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引用次数: 0

Responsive CSR as damage control and the effect of institutional owner commitment 响应式企业社会责任作为损害控制及机构所有者承诺的影响

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101162

Steven A. Dennis (Firestone Endowed Chair in Corporate Finance) , Hua-Hsin Tsai , Marc Tony Via

We examine the use of CSR as damage control (Responsive CSR) after a reputational shock from a securities class action (SCA) lawsuit. We find that CSR scores increase following an SCA lawsuit, and we demonstrate that it is the high reputation firms who raise their CSR scores after the crisis, consistent with reputation repair. We demonstrate the effect is weaker in business-friendly states where the lawsuit is less likely to prevail, and we also demonstrate the effect is weaker when investors have limited ability to influence management. Finally, we demonstrate that it is the firms with long-horizon institutional owners holding considerable stakes in the firm who increase their CSR scores after a SCA lawsuit.

我们研究了在证券集体诉讼（SCA）诉讼的声誉冲击后，企业社会责任作为损害控制（响应式企业社会责任）的使用。我们发现，在SCA诉讼之后，企业社会责任得分会增加，并且我们证明，在危机之后，高声誉的公司会提高企业社会责任得分，这与声誉修复相一致。我们证明，在对商业友好的州，诉讼不太可能胜诉，这种效应较弱；我们还证明，当投资者影响管理层的能力有限时，这种效应较弱。最后，我们证明，在SCA诉讼后，拥有长期机构所有者持有相当大股份的公司会提高其企业社会责任得分。

引用次数: 0

The power of attention: examining the roles of institutional investor and macroeconomic news attention in shaping share liquidity 注意力的力量：研究机构投资者和宏观经济新闻关注在塑造股票流动性中的作用

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101160

John Garcia

This study examines the joint influence of institutional investor attention and macroeconomic news attention on firm-level share liquidity, revealing distinct effects across heterogeneous market segments. Analyzing 1.23 million firm-day observations from 2468 U.S. firms (2015–2020), I combine Bloomberg terminal readership data—a proxy for institutional investor attention—with a novel macroeconomic attention index derived from a principal-component analysis of coverage in The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times. The results reveal significant heterogeneity: institutional investor attention reduces liquidity in information-opaque settings, widening spreads for low-institutional ownership and small-cap firms, while modestly improving liquidity for transparent large-cap firms, where attention serves to validate rather than signal private information. Macroeconomic news attention itself widens spreads while simultaneously dampens the effect of institutional investor attention, consistent with a cognitive substitution channel. These effects intensify during market downturns, highlighting the fragility of liquidity when attention is scarce. Propensity score matching, difference-in-differences tests, and alternative liquidity measures confirm the results. The findings provide a unified framework that reconciles previous evidence and offers actionable insights for traders' execution timing, market makers' spread calibration, and regulators' detection of liquidity fragility during periods of macroeconomic stress.

本研究考察了机构投资者关注和宏观经济新闻关注对公司层面股票流动性的共同影响，揭示了不同细分市场的不同影响。我分析了2468家美国公司（2015-2020年）的123万个工作日观察结果，将彭博终端读者数据（机构投资者关注度的代表）与一种新的宏观经济关注度指数结合起来，该指数来自对《华尔街日报》和《纽约时报》报道的主成分分析。结果显示了显著的异质性：在信息不透明的情况下，机构投资者的注意力降低了流动性，在低机构所有权和小盘股公司中扩大了利差，而在透明的大盘股公司中，注意力用于验证而不是表明私人信息，从而适度提高了流动性。宏观经济新闻关注本身扩大了利差，同时抑制了机构投资者关注的影响，符合认知替代渠道。在市场低迷期间，这些影响会加剧，突显出在缺乏关注时流动性的脆弱性。倾向得分匹配，差异中差异测试和替代流动性措施证实了结果。这些发现提供了一个统一的框架，与之前的证据相协调，并为交易员的执行时机、做市商的价差校准以及监管机构在宏观经济压力时期对流动性脆弱性的检测提供了可操作的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Name concentration risk in Multilateral Development Banks’ portfolios: Measurement and capital adequacy implications 多边开发银行投资组合中的集中度风险：测量和资本充足率影响

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101154

Eva Lütkebohmert , Julian Sester , Hongyi Shen

Sovereign loan portfolios of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) typically comprise a small number of borrowers, making them particularly exposed to single name concentration (SNC) risk. Using realistic MDB portfolios constructed from publicly available data, this paper quantifies SNC risk through accurate Monte Carlo simulations. We find that SNC risk can account for up to 82% of total unexpected loss in MDB sovereign loan portfolios. Comparing the exact adjustment for SNC risk with its analytical approximation currently applied by a major rating agency, we show that the approximation can overestimate SNC risk by up to 266%. This overestimation has implications for the assessment of MDB capital adequacy, potentially limiting MDB lending capacity. Our results suggest that adopting a more accurate assessment of SNC risk could increase lending capacity by approximately 5% without affecting risk-weighted capital ratios. These findings highlight the importance of refining capital adequacy methodologies to better reflect the unique risk profiles of MDBs and unlock additional lending headroom for global development.

多边开发银行（mdb）的主权贷款组合通常由少数借款人组成，这使得它们特别容易受到单一名称集中（SNC）的风险。本文使用从公开可用数据构建的现实MDB投资组合，通过精确的蒙特卡洛模拟量化SNC风险。我们发现，SNC风险可占多边开发银行主权贷款组合意外损失总额的82%。将SNC风险的精确调整与目前主要评级机构使用的分析近似进行比较，我们发现近似可以高估SNC风险高达266%。这种高估影响了对多边开发银行资本充足率的评估，可能限制了多边开发银行的贷款能力。我们的研究结果表明，采用更准确的SNC风险评估可以在不影响风险加权资本比率的情况下将贷款能力提高约5%。这些发现强调了改进资本充足率方法的重要性，以更好地反映多边开发银行的独特风险概况，并为全球发展释放更多的贷款空间。

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引用次数: 0

Disaggregated geopolitical risks and global stock returns 分解地缘政治风险与全球股票回报

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101151

Md Khaled Hossain Rafi , Syed Riaz Mahmood Ali

We introduce a novel framework to measure how geopolitical risk exposure (GRE) affects stock returns. Using data from 40 countries over 1995–2022, we construct three factors: geopolitical risk factor (GPRF), geopolitical act factor (GPAF), and geopolitical threat factor (GPTF). This study documents four main findings. First, geopolitical threats (GPTs) have markedly stronger GRE than geopolitical acts (GPAs), with 58% of countries showing significant GPTF results vs. 35% for GPAF. Second, predictability is strongest at shorter horizons, with 68% of countries demonstrating significant one-month predictability for GPTF effects. Third, these effects persist even after accounting for established market risk factors, with 33% of countries maintaining significant GPTF relationships. Fourth, our factors provide economically meaningful out-of-sample forecasting ability, yielding positive

R^{2}

values in 60% of countries and utility gains for mean–variance investors. The findings offer a practical framework for integrating GRE assessments into portfolio management decisions.

我们引入了一个新的框架来衡量地缘政治风险暴露（GRE）如何影响股票收益。利用1995-2022年40个国家的数据，我们构建了地缘政治风险因素（GPRF）、地缘政治行为因素（GPAF）和地缘政治威胁因素（GPTF）三个因素。这项研究记录了四个主要发现。首先，地缘政治威胁（GPTs）的GRE成绩明显强于地缘政治行为（gpa）， 58%的国家表现出显著的GPTF成绩，而GPAF成绩为35%。其次，短期内的可预测性最强，68%的国家对GPTF的影响表现出一个月的显著可预测性。第三，即使考虑到既定的市场风险因素，这些影响仍然存在，33%的国家保持着重要的GPTF关系。第四，我们的因素提供了经济上有意义的样本外预测能力，在60%的国家产生正R2值，并为均值方差投资者带来效用收益。研究结果为将GRE评估整合到投资组合管理决策中提供了一个实用的框架。

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引用次数: 0

Technological progress and carbon emissions: Evidence from the European Union 技术进步与碳排放：来自欧盟的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101156

Hyun-Jung Nam , Doojin Ryu , Peter G. Szilagyi

We examine the U-shaped effect of technological progress on CO₂ emissions using digital and high-tech trade as well as R&D levels as threshold variables. By analyzing a comprehensive European Union dataset, we reveal the U-shaped effects of digital and high-tech trade and R&D investment on CO₂ emissions, suggesting that technological progress modifies the conventional Environmental Kuznets Curve. At low levels of technological progress, it reduces CO₂ emissions; however, CO₂ emissions increase again beyond a certain threshold. Institutional quality moderates this relationship, highlighting its role in shaping the environmental impact of technological progress, and mitigates the negative impact of technological progress on emissions in its advanced stages. As investors become more aware of environmental liabilities and regulations, incorporating environmental factors into financial policies and risk management becomes crucial. Our findings underscore the role of institutional quality in mitigating the adverse effects of technological progress on CO₂ emissions.

我们使用数字和高科技贸易以及研发水平作为阈值变量来检验技术进步对二氧化碳排放的u型影响。通过分析一个全面的欧盟数据集，我们揭示了数字和高科技贸易以及研发投资对二氧化碳排放的u型影响，这表明技术进步改变了传统的环境库兹涅茨曲线。在技术进步水平较低的情况下，它减少了二氧化碳的排放；但是，超过一定阈值后，二氧化碳排放量会再次增加。制度质量调节了这种关系，突出了其在形成技术进步的环境影响方面的作用，并减轻了技术进步在其后期阶段对排放的负面影响。随着投资者越来越意识到环境责任和法规，将环境因素纳入金融政策和风险管理变得至关重要。我们的研究结果强调了制度质量在减轻技术进步对二氧化碳排放的不利影响方面的作用。

引用次数: 0

Impact of vertical mergers on rivals' cost of debt 垂直合并对竞争对手债务成本的影响

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101155

Mohammadali Fallah , Palani-Rajan Kadapakkam , Mauro Oliveira

We investigate the impact of vertical mergers on bank loans of acquirers' and targets' rivals. Following a vertical merger, these rivals experience higher interest rate spreads on bank loans, shorter loan maturities, and more stringent contract covenants. We observe the increase in the cost of debt whether or not the merger is part of an industry merger wave, mitigating concerns that unobserved industry factors drive our findings. While vertical mergers can foreclose markets for rivals, they can also create efficiencies for the merging firms by reducing the holdup problem in relationship-specific investments. Utilizing asset specificity measures to assess the severity of the holdup problem, we find that rivals' cost of debt increases when vertical mergers are more likely motivated by foreclosure rather than efficiency motives.

我们研究了垂直并购对收购方和目标方竞争对手银行贷款的影响。垂直合并后，这些竞争对手的银行贷款利差更高，贷款期限更短，合同条款更严格。我们观察到，无论合并是否是行业合并浪潮的一部分，债务成本都会增加，这减轻了人们对未观察到的行业因素推动我们研究结果的担忧。虽然垂直合并可以阻止竞争对手进入市场，但它们也可以通过减少特定关系投资中的拖延问题，为合并公司创造效率。利用资产专用性措施来评估持股问题的严重程度，我们发现，当垂直合并更有可能是由止赎而非效率动机驱动时，竞争对手的债务成本会增加。

引用次数: 0

The devil is in the details: Does information in credit rating announcements affect dividend policy? 细节决定成败：信用评级公告中的信息会影响派息政策吗？

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101153

Konstantinos Kakouris , Evangelos Charalambakis , Dimitrios Psychoyios

While recent studies have explored how firms react to credit rating events, the specific impact of news disclosed in credit rating change announcements on dividend policy remains largely unexplored. We analyze a sample of dividend paying firms that consistently paid dividends from 1995 to 2019 to examine whether, and to what extent, firms adjust dividend policy in credit rating shocks. Focusing on the type of information conveyed to the capital markets, we identify three types of downgrades, namely, “bad”, “good”, and “systemic” and upgrades associated with strong financial performance. We provide evidence that firms smooth dividends more under a “good” downgrade and less under a “bad” downgrade, a “systemic” downgrade and an upgrade. In favor of this finding, we show that dividend forecast errors are positively associated with “bad” downgrades, “systemic” downgrades and upgrades, but are not associated with “good” downgrades.

虽然最近的研究已经探讨了公司对信用评级事件的反应，但信用评级变化公告中披露的新闻对股息政策的具体影响在很大程度上仍未被探讨。我们分析了1995年至2019年持续支付股息的公司样本，以检验公司在信用评级冲击中是否以及在多大程度上调整了股息政策。关注传递给资本市场的信息类型，我们确定了三种类型的降级，即“坏”、“好”和“系统性”，以及与强劲财务业绩相关的升级。我们提供的证据表明，公司在“好”评级下调时更容易平滑股息，而在“坏”评级下调、“系统性”评级下调和评级上调时则更少。为了支持这一发现，我们表明股息预测误差与“坏”降级、“系统性”降级和升级呈正相关，但与“好”降级无关。

引用次数: 0

Accounting disclosures and stock price efficiency: Evidence from mandatory IFRS adoption 会计披露与股价效率：来自强制性采用国际财务报告准则的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101152

Karel Hrazdil , Yan Li , Thomas Scott

We investigate whether adopting a uniform set of accounting standards impacts stock price efficiency by introducing a novel empirical test imported from the finance literature. Using mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as an exogenous shock to the accounting information disclosure environment and employing a difference-in-difference research design, we find that the extent to which stock prices deviate from their fundamental values decreases significantly following the adoption of IFRS. In cross-sectional tests, we further observe that the impact of IFRS adoption on stock price efficiency is more pronounced in countries with lower accounting quality prior to IFRS adoption and in those with substantial differences between their domestic Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and IFRS. Overall, our study contributes to the literature by empirically examining a fundamental aspect of the IFRS mission statement—whether IFRS adoption enhances financial market efficiency.

我们通过引入一个从金融文献中引进的新的实证检验来研究采用统一的会计准则是否会影响股价效率。采用强制性采用国际财务报告准则（IFRS）作为会计信息披露环境的外生冲击，并采用差异中差异研究设计，我们发现，在采用国际财务报告准则后，股价偏离其基本价值的程度显着降低。在横断面测试中，我们进一步观察到，在采用国际财务报告准则之前会计质量较低的国家，以及在其国内公认会计原则（GAAP）与国际财务报告准则之间存在重大差异的国家，采用国际财务报告准则对股价效率的影响更为明显。总体而言，我们的研究通过实证检验国际财务报告准则使命声明的一个基本方面——采用国际财务报告准则是否提高了金融市场效率——对文献做出了贡献。

引用次数: 0

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