Global Finance Journal最新文献

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Riding the geopolitical storm or dodging bullets: Geopolitical risk timing of mutual funds 驾驭地缘政治风暴还是躲避子弹？共同基金的地缘政治风险时机选择

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2024.101047

Jie Liu , Zhenshan Chen , Gengyan Lin , Yinglun Zhu

This study investigates the mutual fund timing of geopolitical risk and corresponding economic consequences based on open-end active stock funds data in China from January 2005 to June 2023. Mutual funds are effective at timing geopolitical risks, evidenced by their tendency to reduce market risk exposure before periods of heightened geopolitical risk. We find that geopolitical risk timing is significantly positively associated with fund performance with persistence in mutual funds' geopolitical risk timing abilities. This effect remains robust even after controlling for market, volatility, and liquidity timing of mutual funds. The results suggest that mutual funds with superior geopolitical risk timing attract greater fund inflows, highlighting their positive market value. Fund managers with experience as macro analysts and political connections are more sophisticated in timing geopolitical risk than their counterparts.

本研究基于 2005 年 1 月至 2023 年 6 月中国开放式主动股票型基金的数据，研究了共同基金对地缘政治风险的时机把握及相应的经济后果。共同基金能够有效地把握地缘政治风险的时机，这表现在共同基金倾向于在地缘政治风险高发期之前降低市场风险敞口。我们发现，地缘政治风险择时与基金业绩显著正相关，共同基金的地缘政治风险择时能力具有持续性。即使在控制了共同基金的市场、波动性和流动性时机后，这一效应依然稳健。结果表明，具有卓越地缘政治风险时机把握能力的共同基金能吸引更多资金流入，从而凸显其积极的市场价值。具有宏观分析经验和政治关系的基金经理在地缘政治风险时机把握方面比其他基金经理更老练。

引用次数: 0

Estimating probability of default via delinquencies? Evidence from European P2P lending market 通过拖欠估算违约概率？欧洲 P2P 借贷市场的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2024.101050

Asror Nigmonov , Syed Shams , Povilas Urbonas

The unprecedented growth of the financial sector's digital transformation opens wide areas to the scaling up of finance in innovative and knowledge-based projects. Improving risk management takes centre stage in the acceleration of this process. This study uses loan-book data from the peer-to-peer (P2P) lending market to empirically investigate the determinants of default risk. Using the loan-book database covering the period from 2014 to 2020, we examine multiple factors related to the default risk of loans issued by P2P lending platforms. The results indicate that a higher interest rate and higher stock market returns increase the probability of default in the P2P lending market. Results are robust to additional tests based on endogeneity correction, the LASSO method and sampling bias. The severity of the impact of market returns and interest rates is found to be significantly different based on the levels of financial technology (FinTech) adoption and banking sector distress. Increases in the market interest rate are found to boost the sensitivity of P2P loan defaults to stock market volatility. This study contributes to existing literature on risk management models with its consideration of country-specific factors, paving the way to future best practices in the market.

金融业数字化转型的空前发展为扩大创新和知识型项目的融资规模开辟了广阔的空间。在加速这一进程的过程中，改进风险管理占据了中心位置。本研究利用点对点（P2P）借贷市场的贷款账簿数据，对违约风险的决定因素进行了实证研究。利用覆盖 2014 年至 2020 年的贷款账簿数据库，我们研究了与 P2P 网络借贷平台发放贷款的违约风险有关的多种因素。结果表明，较高的利率和较高的股市回报会增加 P2P 网络借贷市场的违约概率。基于内生性校正、LASSO 方法和抽样偏差的附加检验结果是稳健的。根据金融科技（FinTech）的采用水平和银行业的困境，市场回报率和利率影响的严重程度存在显著差异。研究发现，市场利率的上升会提高 P2P 贷款违约对股市波动的敏感性。本研究考虑了特定国家的因素，为现有的风险管理模型文献做出了贡献，为未来市场的最佳实践铺平了道路。

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引用次数: 0

Corporate risk disclosure in response to heightened entry threat: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China 企业风险披露以应对加剧的进入威胁：来自中国准自然实验的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2024.101049

Jingru Wang , Zhuochen Wu , Xinwei Fang , Haoxin Xiu

Using the deregulation of market entry barriers in China as a quasi-natural experiment, this study examines how increased entry threats affect incumbent firms' risk disclosure. We find that firms respond by increasing their market-related risk disclosures. This effect is stronger among firms facing higher economic uncertainty, lower financial constraints, greater product market competition, and higher information transparency. Mechanism analysis shows that increased risk disclosure weakens the link between deregulation of market entry barriers and new firm entry, suggesting that such disclosures can effectively deter potential competitors. Moreover, while market reactions to market risk disclosures are neutral, they are negative for operational and financial risk disclosures. Our findings suggest that firms strategically disclose market risks to mitigate entry threats, thus enhancing their resilience and adaptability in dynamic markets.

本研究以中国放松市场进入壁垒管制为准自然实验，探讨了市场进入威胁的增加如何影响现有企业的风险披露。我们发现，企业会通过增加与市场相关的风险披露来做出反应。在面临较高经济不确定性、较低财务约束、更激烈的产品市场竞争和更高信息透明度的企业中，这种效应更强。机制分析表明，增加风险披露削弱了放松市场进入壁垒管制与新企业进入之间的联系，这表明风险披露可以有效阻止潜在竞争者。此外，市场对市场风险披露的反应是中性的，而对运营和财务风险披露的反应则是负面的。我们的研究结果表明，企业会战略性地披露市场风险，以减少进入市场的威胁，从而增强其在动态市场中的应变能力和适应能力。

引用次数: 0

Executive compensation disclosure in emerging markets with weak shareholder enforcement: A multi-level analysis 股东执行力薄弱的新兴市场的高管薪酬披露：多层次分析

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2024.101045

Vagner Naysinger Machado , Igor Bernardi Sonza , Wilson Toshiro Nakamura , Johnny Silva Mendes , Marco Aurélio dos Santos

Using a quasi-experimental approach, this study examines the effect of the mandatory disclosure of executive compensation on the performance and liquidity of firms in emerging markets with weak legal protection such as Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Italy, and Spain. The results of the multi-level generalized linear models suggest that executive compensation disclosure positively impacts the accounting performance of firms in countries with weak legal protection. The findings also indicate that regulating such disclosure can help reduce agency problems. However, stricter executive compensation disclosure requirements do not impact market performance, as measured by the market-to-book ratio and Tobin's Q. In addition, there is a negative relationship between the regulation of executive compensation disclosure and the amount of cash retained by firms in countries with legal origins in French civil law.

本研究采用准实验方法，考察了在阿根廷、比利时、巴西、意大利和西班牙等法律保护薄弱的新兴市场，强制披露高管薪酬对企业绩效和流动性的影响。多层次广义线性模型的结果表明，在法律保护薄弱的国家，高管薪酬披露会对企业的会计业绩产生积极影响。研究结果还表明，规范此类披露有助于减少代理问题。此外，在法律起源于法国民法的国家，对高管薪酬披露的监管与企业保留的现金数量之间存在负相关关系。

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric dependency among US national financial conditions and clean energy markets 美国国家财政状况与清洁能源市场之间的不对称依赖关系

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2024.101046

Hongjun Zeng , Mohammad Zoynul Abedin , Ran Wu , Abdullahi D. Ahmed

This paper examines the relationship between the US National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and the clean energy industry using quantile and frequency connectedness, cross-quantile, and wavelet quantile correlation (WQC) techniques. Results reveal (a) a stronger dependence between the NFCI and clean energy under bullish market states. Moreover, the total connectedness between the NFCI and clean energy mostly exhibits time-varying characteristics. In particular, clean energy has a greater spillover effect than the NFCI. (b) Dynamic frequency total connectedness at extreme quantiles provided a more comprehensive view of structural shocks in financial markets, and major crises, such as COVID-19, significantly amplified this connectedness. Overall, the WilderHill Clean Energy Index and the NASDAQ OMX Renewable Energy Index demonstrate substantial potential for hedging financial conditions. (c) The cross-quantile correlation results revealed an asymmetric dependency, demonstrating a sustained significant positive relationship between the NFCI and clean energy index (CEI) across the relative higher quantiles and middle quantiles. The WQC showed that the NFCI and specific CEIs tended to exhibit the strongest positive correlations in nonextreme quantiles and lower frequencies. These results can be of considerable interest to various financial market participants.

本文利用量级和频率关联性、交叉量级和小波量级相关性（WQC）技术研究了美国国家金融状况指数（NFCI）与清洁能源产业之间的关系。结果显示：（a）在市场看涨的状态下，NFCI 与清洁能源之间的依赖性更强。此外，NFCI 与清洁能源之间的总关联度大多呈现时变特征。特别是，清洁能源比 NFCI 具有更大的溢出效应。(b) 动态频率总关联度在极端数量级上更全面地反映了金融市场的结构性冲击，COVID-19 等重大危机显著放大了这种关联度。总体而言，怀尔德希尔清洁能源指数和纳斯达克 OMX 可再生能源指数在对冲金融状况方面具有巨大潜力。(c) 跨量值相关性结果显示了非对称依赖性，表明 NFCI 和清洁能源指数（CEI）在相对较高的量值和中间量值之间存在持续显著的正相关关系。WQC 显示，NFCI 和特定 CEI 在非极端量级和较低频率时往往表现出最强的正相关性。这些结果会引起金融市场参与者的极大兴趣。

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引用次数: 0

Bank scandal contagion: Evidence from the Wells Fargo cross-selling scandal 银行丑闻传染：富国银行交叉销售丑闻的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2024.101044

Michael D. Noel , Syed M.I. Osman

In the event of a negative reputation shock or scandal, do consumers' anger and mistrust in the scandal-affected products spill over to seemingly unrelated lines of business that the scandal did not directly reach? Our paper looks into Wells Fargo's 2016 “cross-selling” scandal to test the negative sentiment contagion effect on its mortgage business. The study finds significant negative contagion effects, but also shows that Wells Fargo was more accommodating in handling complaints, paying compensation more frequently, and successfully lowering disputes towards zero. These actions are interpreted as Wells Fargo's damage control efforts to ‘Contain the Contagion’.

在发生负面声誉冲击或丑闻时，消费者对受丑闻影响产品的愤怒和不信任是否会蔓延到丑闻没有直接影响到的看似无关的业务领域？我们的论文研究了富国银行 2016 年的 "交叉销售 "丑闻，以检验其抵押贷款业务的负面情绪传染效应。研究发现了明显的负面传染效应，但同时也表明富国银行在处理投诉时更加宽容，更频繁地支付赔偿金，并成功地将争议降为零。这些行为被解释为富国银行为 "控制传染 "而采取的损害控制措施。

引用次数: 0

Are Mondays different? Evidence from initial public offerings 周一与众不同吗？首次公开募股的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2024.101043

Abu Chowdhury , Mika Vaihekoski , Mir Zaman

This paper investigates how and why initial public offerings (IPOs) issued on Mondays differ from those on other days. We provide evidence that Monday IPOs make a significantly larger number of filing price amendments during the road show and set offer prices that exceed the filing price range, resulting in higher positive offer price revisions. We also find that Monday IPOs receive less analyst coverage than other-day IPOs, despite their underwriting fees being the same and their total underwriter compensation being higher. Therefore, Monday IPOs are more likely to change lead underwriters in subsequent equity offerings and have a higher risk of delisting as aftermarket support and maintaining good relations with investment banks are critical for their long run survival. We also investigate why underwriters issue IPOs on Mondays. We suggest four possible explanations for Monday IPOs and find indirect evidence that supports the deliberate road show extension explanation.

本文研究了周一发行的首次公开募股（IPO）与其他日期发行的首次公开募股（IPO）的不同之处和原因。我们提供的证据表明，周一首次公开发行股票在路演期间对申报价格进行修正的次数明显较多，并且确定的发行价超出了申报价格范围，从而导致较高的正发行价修正。我们还发现，尽管周一 IPO 的承销费相同，承销商的总报酬也更高，但与其他日期的 IPO 相比，周一 IPO 获得的分析师报道更少。因此，周一 IPO 在随后的股票发行中更有可能更换主承销商，退市风险也更高，因为售后市场支持以及与投资银行保持良好关系对其长期生存至关重要。我们还研究了承销商在周一发行 IPO 的原因。我们对周一 IPO 提出了四种可能的解释，并发现间接证据支持故意延长路演时间的解释。

引用次数: 0

The influence of European MiCa regulation on cryptocurrencies 欧洲 MiCa 法规对加密货币的影响

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2024.101040

Thomas Conlon , Shaen Corbet , Les Oxley

This research investigates the relationship between impending regulatory measures, specifically the introduction of European MiCa regulations, and their influence on cryptocurrency markets. Analysing stock market responses, we highlight significant shifts in liquidity, variance, and return dynamics post-MiCa-related announcements. Specifically, such announcements are associated with significant negative cryptocurrency returns and elevated liquidity. The findings reveal defined heterogeneity across different cryptocurrency sub-classes, each uniquely affected by its inherent attributes and susceptibility to regulatory changes. This work offers insights into the nature of market responses to regulatory intervention, providing an invaluable perspective on the equilibrium between cryptocurrency market behaviour and the evolving European regulatory landscape.

本研究调查了即将出台的监管措施（特别是欧洲 MiCa 法规的出台）与其对加密货币市场的影响之间的关系。通过分析股票市场的反应，我们强调了 MiCa 相关公告发布后流动性、方差和回报动态的显著变化。具体来说，此类公告与加密货币回报率大幅下降和流动性上升有关。研究结果揭示了不同加密货币子类别之间的确定异质性，每个子类别都受到其固有属性和监管变化易感性的独特影响。这项研究深入揭示了市场对监管干预反应的本质，为研究加密货币市场行为与不断变化的欧洲监管环境之间的平衡提供了宝贵的视角。

引用次数: 0

Digital technology innovation and corporate resilience 数字技术创新与企业复原力

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2024.101042

Baizhen Zhang , Jingjing Zhang , Changrun Chen

This study identifies over 220,000 digital invention patent applications for digital invention and creates an index of enterprise-level digital technology innovations. Using an empirical analysis based on a two-way fixed-effects model, this study examines the impact of digital technology innovation on enterprise resilience. Results show that digital technology innovations improve enterprise resilience. This improvement is mainly achieved by reducing internal and external information asymmetry, reducing operating costs, improving management levels and operational efficiency, and increasing market profitability and sustainable earning capacity. Moreover, this study extracted all announcements containing phrases such as “strategic alliance,” “strategic co-operation,” and “business alliance” from 3.208 million announcements on the JUCHAO website and further filtered them to select those strategic alliances in digital technology as their content of collaboration and identified them as digital technology strategic alliances. The findings show that companies that join digital technology strategic alliances have a greater impact on improving enterprise resilience. Furthermore, this study found that digital technology innovation can significantly improve the enterprise resilience with better network infrastructure and a more comprehensive intellectual property protection system. This study expands the research scope of the microlevel effects of the digital economy and provides valuable insights for governments to optimize digital economy policies and enterprises to develop digital innovation strategies.

本研究识别了 22 万多件数字发明专利申请，并建立了企业级数字技术创新指数。通过基于双向固定效应模型的实证分析，本研究探讨了数字技术创新对企业抗风险能力的影响。结果表明，数字技术创新提高了企业的应变能力。这种提高主要是通过减少内外部信息不对称、降低运营成本、提高管理水平和运营效率、增加市场盈利能力和可持续盈利能力来实现的。此外，本研究从巨潮资讯网的 320.8 万条公告中提取了所有包含 "战略联盟"、"战略合作"、"商业联盟 "等词组的公告，并进一步筛选出以数字技术为合作内容的战略联盟，将其确定为数字技术战略联盟。研究结果表明，加入数字技术战略联盟的企业对提高企业应变能力的影响更大。此外，本研究还发现，通过更好的网络基础设施和更全面的知识产权保护体系，数字技术创新可以显著提高企业的抗风险能力。本研究拓展了数字经济微观层面效应的研究范围，为政府优化数字经济政策和企业制定数字创新战略提供了有价值的启示。

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引用次数: 0

Climate risk, ESG ratings, and the flow-performance relationship in mutual funds 气候风险、环境、社会和公司治理评级以及共同基金的流量-绩效关系

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2024.101041

Sara Ali , Ihsan Badshah , Riza Demirer , Prasad Hegde , Lavinia Rognone

We extend the burgeoning literature on climate finance by examining the informational role of mutual fund sustainability ratings on the asset allocation decisions by investors when faced with climate risks. Utilizing data on a large sample of equity mutual funds in Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), we find that climate risk plays a significant role on the sensitivity of fund flows to past performance. We find that the sensitivity is stronger for mutual funds that enjoy high sustainability ratings, and we show that the informational value of past performance over subsequent fund flows becomes more important when investors face greater climate risks. We argue that sustainability ratings of managed funds not only complement performance but also help improve the efficiency of asset allocation decisions, more so during a heightened climate risk environment.

我们通过研究共同基金可持续发展评级对投资者在面临气候风险时做出资产配置决策的信息作用，扩展了有关气候融资的新兴文献。利用大洋洲（澳大利亚和新西兰）股票共同基金的大量样本数据，我们发现气候风险对基金流动对过去业绩的敏感性起着重要作用。我们发现，可持续发展评级高的共同基金对气候风险的敏感性更强，而且我们还发现，当投资者面临更大的气候风险时，过往业绩对后续资金流的信息价值变得更加重要。我们认为，管理基金的可持续性评级不仅是对业绩的补充，还有助于提高资产配置决策的效率，在气候风险加剧的环境下更是如此。

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全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

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