Global Finance Journal最新文献

英文中文

How do institutional investors respond to climate change exposure? International evidence 机构投资者如何应对气候变化风险？国际证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101202

Zhen Wang, Kai Wu

This study investigates the influence of climate change exposure on institutional ownership worldwide. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset of firm-level climate change exposure, we document a negative association between climate change exposure and in- stitutional ownership, establishing causality through an instrumental variable approach and the difference-in-differences method. Short-term-oriented institutional investors drive the negative correlation between climate change exposure and institutional ownership. This relationship is particularly pronounced in firms with weaker corporate governance structures and poor information disclosure quality and in countries with stronger environmental policies and higher climate awareness. While institutions generally reduce their holdings in climate-exposed firms, those maintaining ownership positions demonstrate increased engagement in climate risk governance. Our findings emphasize the dual role of institutional investors in responding to climate risks and shaping corporate environmental governance.

本研究探讨了全球范围内气候变化暴露对机构所有权的影响。利用企业层面气候变化风险的综合数据集，我们记录了气候变化风险与机构所有权之间的负相关关系，通过工具变量方法和差异中的差异方法建立了因果关系。短期导向的机构投资者推动了气候变化敞口与机构所有权之间的负相关关系。这种关系在公司治理结构较弱、信息披露质量较差的公司和环境政策较强、气候意识较高的国家尤为明显。虽然机构通常会减持受气候影响公司的股份，但那些保持所有权地位的机构显示出对气候风险治理的参与程度有所提高。我们的研究结果强调了机构投资者在应对气候风险和塑造公司环境治理方面的双重作用。

引用次数: 0

Regret to reward: Investor regret and the cross-sectional stock returns in the Chinese market 后悔回报：投资者后悔与中国市场横截面股票收益

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101205

Anh Tuan Le , Harvey Nguyen , Cuong Nguyen

This study investigates the cross-sectional asset pricing implications of investor regret in the Chinese stock market. Using a comprehensive sample spanning January 2000 to November 2021, we find that regret is positively related to the cross-section of future equity returns. A strategy that involves longing a portfolio with the highest regret and shorting a portfolio with the lowest regret generates annualized risk-adjusted returns of 11.64 %. In addition, the regret premium is more pronounced for stocks with high arbitrage limits and information frictions. The regret anomaly persists after considering established asset pricing factors through extensive sensitivity analyses. Overall, our findings remain consistent with our hypothesis that regret-averse investors generally avoid stocks that generate high regret as these stocks have reduced overall utility compared with others. Consequently, these high regret stocks tend to deliver higher future returns in equilibrium. Our results provide valuable insights for policymakers and regulators to better understand how investors' emotional behaviors such as regret can affect stock dynamics, particularly in emerging and retail-driven markets.

本研究探讨投资者后悔对中国股票市场资产定价的横断面影响。使用2000年1月至2021年11月的综合样本，我们发现后悔与未来股票回报的横截面呈正相关。如果一种策略包括做多后悔程度最高的投资组合，做空后悔程度最低的投资组合，那么经过风险调整后的年化回报率将达到11.64%。此外，对于套利限制高、信息摩擦大的股票，后悔溢价更为明显。通过广泛的敏感性分析，在考虑了既定的资产定价因素后，遗憾异常仍然存在。总的来说，我们的研究结果与我们的假设保持一致，即厌恶后悔的投资者通常会避开那些产生高后悔的股票，因为这些股票与其他股票相比，总体效用较低。因此，在均衡状态下，这些高后悔率股票往往会带来更高的未来回报。我们的研究结果为政策制定者和监管机构更好地理解投资者的情绪行为（如后悔）如何影响股票动态提供了有价值的见解，特别是在新兴市场和零售驱动的市场。

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引用次数: 0

Does climate risk influence exchange rates? 气候风险会影响汇率吗？

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101203

Yu Ma , Wenxia Zhao , Zijun Ding

Climate risk has emerged as a major global challenge with significant implications for the dynamics of exchange rates. By constructing a Climate Physical Risk Index based on extreme weather events across 77 countries from 1993 to 2022, this study examines whether climate shocks affect exchange rates. Fixed-effects models for panel data are employed to assess the cross-national impact of climate risk. The results indicate that climate shocks contribute to currency depreciation, with pronounced effects observed in developing countries, economies characterized by floating exchange rate regimes and those with lower levels of openness, and nations situated in the Northern Hemisphere. An analysis of the mechanisms reveals that climate risk affects exchange rates through various channels, such as deteriorating current accounts, widening fiscal deficits, hindering economic growth, and reducing total factor productivity. By introducing a cross-national risk index into the process of determining exchange rates, this study expands the intersection of climate economics and international finance. This study highlights significant policy implications for designing change rate regimes, fiscal planning, and enhancing resilience through investment strategies.

气候风险已成为一项重大的全球挑战，对汇率动态具有重大影响。本研究基于1993年至2022年77个国家的极端天气事件构建了气候物理风险指数，考察了气候冲击是否会影响汇率。面板数据的固定效应模型被用来评估气候风险的跨国影响。结果表明，气候冲击有助于货币贬值，在发展中国家、浮动汇率制度的经济体和开放程度较低的经济体以及北半球国家观察到明显的影响。对机制的分析表明，气候风险通过各种渠道影响汇率，如经常账户恶化、财政赤字扩大、阻碍经济增长和降低全要素生产率。通过将跨国风险指数引入汇率确定过程，本研究扩展了气候经济学与国际金融的交集。本研究强调了设计变化率制度、财政规划和通过投资策略增强韧性的重要政策意义。

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引用次数: 0

Peer effect of nonfinancial corporate shadow banking: Evidence from common analyst networks in China 非金融企业影子银行的同伴效应：来自中国普通分析师网络的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101201

Tingting Liu , Yong Du , Shuying Tan , Shuhan Zhao

This paper investigates the peer effect of shadow banking among A-share nonfinancial firms in China's Shanghai and Shenzhen markets from 2007 to 2020, focusing on common analyst networks. The results reveal a significant peer effect, whereby firms imitate the shadow banking behavior of peers connected via shared analysts. This effect reduces firm performance and heightens stock price crash risk. The underlying mechanism is driven by information transmission and competitive pressure induced by common analysts. The study also proposes countermeasures for firms, analysts, and regulators, offering a novel perspective on addressing the “hollowing out” of the real economy.

本文以普通分析师网络为研究对象，对2007 - 2020年沪深两市a股非金融企业影子银行的同行效应进行了研究。结果显示了显著的同行效应，即企业模仿通过共享分析师连接的同行的影子银行行为。这种效应降低了公司业绩，增加了股价崩盘的风险。其潜在机制是由信息传递和共同分析师诱导的竞争压力驱动的。该研究还为企业、分析师和监管机构提出了对策，为解决实体经济的“空心化”提供了一个新的视角。

引用次数: 0

Equity premium prediction: A constraint-based predictor decomposition approach 股票溢价预测：一种基于约束的预测因子分解方法

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101199

Ying Yuan , Yong Qu , Sijia Qiao

We propose a constraint-based predictor decomposition approach that exploits predictive information in commonly used predictors to improve equity premium forecasts. The approach identifies and quantifies unexpected changes as deviation tendency while bounding values to capture central tendency. Predictions from the two tendencies are then synthesized. Empirical analysis shows this approach outperforms existing methods, producing statistically and economically significant out-of-sample results. These findings validate the ability of our approach to capture both tendencies. We also extend the analysis to multivariate prediction, where results consistently confirm its superiority. Finally, robustness tests and additional analyses demonstrate that the approach delivers stable and reliable forecasting performance.

我们提出了一种基于约束的预测因子分解方法，该方法利用常用预测因子中的预测信息来改进股票溢价预测。该方法将意外变化识别并量化为偏差趋势，而边界值捕获集中趋势。然后综合这两种趋势的预测。实证分析表明，该方法优于现有方法，产生统计上和经济上显著的样本外结果。这些发现证实了我们的方法能够捕捉到这两种趋势。我们还将分析扩展到多变量预测，结果一致地证实了它的优越性。最后，鲁棒性测试和附加分析表明，该方法提供了稳定可靠的预测性能。

引用次数: 0

Green finance reform and reshaping firm-banking relationships: Evidence from China 绿色金融改革与重塑企业与银行关系：来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101200

Xiaoying Wu , Hyoung-Goo Kang , Doojin Ryu

This study examines how policy-driven green finance reform reshapes firm-banking relationships, using the implementation of China's Green Finance Pilot Zones (GFPZ) as a quasi-natural experiment. Employing loan announcement data from listed firms and a difference-in-differences approach, we measure the intensity of firm-banking relationships using repeated borrowing activity and find that the GFPZ policy significantly reduces it. The effect is more pronounced in regions with greater banking competition and financial development, and among firms that are more transparent or under stricter environmental scrutiny. By showing how sustainability-oriented policies transform financial relationships, this study provides new insights into the adaptation of firm-banking interactions under green development agendas.

本研究以中国绿色金融试验区（GFPZ）的实施为准自然实验，探讨政策驱动的绿色金融改革如何重塑企业与银行的关系。利用上市公司的贷款公告数据和差异中的差异方法，我们使用重复借贷活动来衡量企业与银行关系的强度，发现GFPZ政策显著降低了这种关系。在银行业竞争和金融发展程度较高的地区，以及在透明度更高或环境审查更严格的公司中，这种影响更为明显。通过展示以可持续发展为导向的政策如何改变金融关系，本研究为绿色发展议程下企业-银行互动的适应性提供了新的见解。

引用次数: 0

Female CEOs in turbulent times: The effect of terrorist attacks on executive compensation 动荡时期的女性ceo：恐怖袭击对高管薪酬的影响

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101198

Yunji Hwang , Jonghan Park , Kevin H. Kim , Seung Hun Han

This study investigates how terrorist attacks affect female CEO compensation. Using terrorist attacks, as exogenous events, in the United States from 1992 to 2021, we find that firms located near terrorist attacks subsequently provide higher compensation to female CEOs than their male counterparts. This effect is more pronounced for female CEOs who serve as board chairs. Additionally, firms led by female CEOs experience lower stock volatility and earnings volatility. Overall, our findings suggest that given the heightened uncertainty firms face following the attacks, they have incentives to offer higher compensation to retain female executives, thereby ensuring leadership continuity and benefiting from female leadership during a crisis period.

本研究调查了恐怖袭击对女性CEO薪酬的影响。以1992年至2021年美国的恐怖袭击事件为外生事件，我们发现位于恐怖袭击附近的公司随后向女性ceo提供的薪酬高于男性ceo。这种影响在担任董事会主席的女性首席执行官身上更为明显。此外，由女性ceo领导的公司的股票波动性和收益波动性都较低。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，鉴于攻击后企业面临的不确定性增加，它们有动力提供更高的薪酬来留住女性高管，从而确保领导层的连续性，并在危机期间受益于女性领导层。

引用次数: 0

Sovereign fiscal capacity, implicit subsidies, and bank value 主权财政能力、隐性补贴和银行价值

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101197

Lucas N.C. Vasconcelos, Rafael Schiozer

This study examines how fiscal constraints affect banks' market value in a cross-country sample, using exogenous variations in fiscal constraints based on abnormal military spending. Increased fiscal constraints arising from exogenous spending shocks can affect bank valuation through two different channels with opposing expected effects: spending shocks weaken governments' ability to stabilize the financial system during crises, resulting in lower bank valuation; however, when fiscal constraints are heightened because of positive sector-specific spending shocks (increased military expenditure), corporate earnings—particularly in sectors that are heavily dependent on government contracts—become more predictable, which subsequently reduces banks' earnings volatility, thereby increasing their valuation. We find that fiscal constraints negatively impact banks' valuation, which is consistent with the first channel (i.e., owing to the reduced proportion of banks' value composed by implicit or explicit governmental guarantees). In addition, bank resolution reforms adopted after the global financial crisis attenuate this relationship, but do not completely eliminate it. The sovereign–bank nexus remains relevant and concentrated in large banks. Our inferences provide insights in favor of strengthening bank resolution frameworks, to reduce banks' reliance on governmental funds and ensure bailouts occur only when welfare-enhancing. By limiting expectations of unconditional government support, these regulations may mitigate too-big-to-fail perceptions.

本研究在一个跨国样本中考察了财政约束如何影响银行的市场价值，使用了基于异常军事支出的财政约束的外生变化。外生支出冲击导致的财政约束增加可以通过两种不同的渠道影响银行估值，其预期效果是相反的：支出冲击削弱了政府在危机期间稳定金融体系的能力，导致银行估值下降；然而，当财政约束因积极的特定部门支出冲击（增加军事开支）而加剧时，企业收益——特别是在严重依赖政府合同的部门——变得更可预测，这随后降低了银行收益的波动性，从而提高了它们的估值。我们发现，财政约束对银行估值产生了负面影响，这与第一种渠道一致（即，由于隐性或显性政府担保构成的银行价值比例降低）。此外，全球金融危机后采取的银行决议改革削弱了这种关系，但并未完全消除这种关系。主权与银行之间的联系仍然存在，而且主要集中在大型银行。我们的推论提供了有利于加强银行处置框架的见解，以减少银行对政府资金的依赖，并确保只有在福利增加时才会进行救助。通过限制对政府无条件支持的期望，这些规定可能会减轻人们对“大而不能倒”的看法。

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引用次数: 0

AI strategies for financial inclusion and gender equality in MENAT: Evidence from Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE 中东和北非地区促进金融包容性和性别平等的人工智能战略：来自埃及、土耳其和阿联酋的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101181

Merih Angın, Eylem Güner, Pelin Kılınçarslan

Despite widespread artificial intelligence (AI) and financial-inclusion strategies across Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey (MENAT) countries, their implications for gender equality remain underexplored. This study bridges this gap by employing natural language processing techniques, specifically a RoBERTa model fine-tuned for Sustainable Development Goal 5 (Gender Equality), to analyze publicly available national AI strategy documents from MENAT countries. Our high-accuracy thematic classification reveals substantial variation in countries' approaches to gender-focused financial inclusion. Through an in-depth comparative assessment of Egypt, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), we find distinct approaches: the UAE demonstrates strong AI readiness yet limited focus on socio-economic inclusivity, Turkey shows moderate attention to integrating gender in financial inclusion, and Egypt, despite ambitious goals, faces significant implementation challenges. These findings underscore the diverse challenges and opportunities in leveraging AI to enhance financial inclusion and empower women, reflecting varied socio-economic priorities and execution capacities across the MENAT region.

尽管人工智能（AI）和金融包容性战略在中东、北非和土耳其（MENAT）国家广泛传播，但它们对性别平等的影响仍未得到充分探讨。本研究通过采用自然语言处理技术，特别是针对可持续发展目标5（性别平等）进行微调的RoBERTa模型，来分析MENAT国家公开的国家人工智能战略文件，从而弥补了这一差距。我们的高精度专题分类揭示了各国在以性别为重点的普惠金融方法上的巨大差异。通过对埃及、土耳其和阿拉伯联合酋长国（阿联酋）的深入比较评估，我们发现了不同的方法：阿联酋表现出强大的人工智能准备，但对社会经济包容性的关注有限；土耳其对将性别纳入金融包容性的关注有限；埃及尽管目标雄心勃勃，但在实施方面面临重大挑战。这些发现强调了利用人工智能加强普惠金融和赋予妇女权力方面的各种挑战和机遇，反映了MENAT地区不同的社会经济优先事项和执行能力。

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引用次数: 0

Walking quietly: Fiduciary waivers and blockholder exit 悄无声息地走着：受托人豁免和大股东退出

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101196

Pouyan Foroughi

Corporate opportunity waivers let directors pursue outside ventures, weakening the duty of loyalty that supports investor confidence. Exploiting staggered state adoptions of these statutes from 2000 to 2018, we examine how blockholders, the market’s main bulwark against self-dealing, react. Public governance signals barely change; support for management proposals slips by less than one percentage point, failed director elections fall, and friendly hedge fund activism fades. Once scrutiny shifts toward the potential outcomes of private monitoring, a strikingly different picture emerges, as larger firms experience more frequent departures of independent directors, activists who once cooperated with management adopt confrontational tactics, and long-horizon investors pare their stakes, especially where diversion prospects are very high, analyst coverage is extensive, and boards are larger. Loosening fiduciary standards, therefore, gradually weakens shareholder oversight, eroding a critical governance mechanism and placing long-term firm value at risk, despite initial market optimism.

公司机会豁免让董事们追求外部投资，削弱了支持投资者信心的忠诚义务。利用2000年至2018年各州交错采用这些法规的情况，我们研究了市场上反对自我交易的主要堡垒——大股东的反应。公共治理信号几乎没有变化；管理提案的支持率下降了不到一个百分点，董事选举失败，友好的对冲基金激进主义消退。一旦审查转向私人监督的潜在结果，一幅截然不同的画面就会出现，因为大公司的独立董事离职更频繁，曾经与管理层合作的激进分子采取对抗策略，长期投资者削减他们的股份，特别是在转移前景非常高、分析师覆盖范围广泛、董事会规模更大的地方。因此，放松信托标准会逐渐削弱股东监督，侵蚀关键的治理机制，并使公司的长期价值面临风险，尽管市场最初持乐观态度。

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