Global Finance Journal最新文献

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Green interactions and corporate climate risk exposure: Evidence from China's investor-firm digital interactive platforms 绿色互动与企业气候风险暴露：来自中国投资者-公司数字互动平台的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101229

Silu Pang, Chunlin Cheng, Yihan Han, Guihong Hua

Retail investors' green interactions—their oversight and recommendations on corporate climate risks through official interactive platforms—have become a growing informal governance mechanism as climate change gains global prominence. Drawing on social exchange theory, this study examines how such interactions between retail investors and listed firms influence corporate climate risk exposure (CRE). Using data from China's investor-firm interactive platforms covering 1798 firms from 2014 to 2022, we find that green interactions significantly reduce CRE, with stronger effects among firms exhibiting higher social responsibility conformity and larger retail investor bases. Advocacy-oriented and information-oriented messages are most effective, and their impact is amplified by firms' response quality. We identify three mechanisms behind this relationship: heightened climate risk perception, lower information transmission costs, and strengthened investor trust. These findings deepen understanding of retail investor activism in corporate climate governance and offer insights for integrating grassroots engagement into climate policy and financial regulation.

随着气候变化日益成为全球关注的焦点，散户投资者的绿色互动——他们通过官方互动平台对企业气候风险的监督和建议——已经成为一种日益增长的非正式治理机制。本研究运用社会交换理论，探讨散户投资者与上市公司之间的互动如何影响企业气候风险暴露。利用涵盖2014 - 2022年中国1798家企业的投资者-企业互动平台数据，我们发现绿色互动显著降低了CRE，且在社会责任一致性较高、散户投资者基数较大的企业中效果更强。以宣传为导向和以信息为导向的信息是最有效的，它们的影响被企业的反应质量放大。我们确定了这种关系背后的三个机制：提高气候风险感知、降低信息传递成本和加强投资者信任。这些发现加深了对公司气候治理中散户投资者行动主义的理解，并为将基层参与纳入气候政策和金融监管提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Equity premium prediction: A constraint-based predictor decomposition approach 股票溢价预测：一种基于约束的预测因子分解方法

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101199

Ying Yuan , Yong Qu , Sijia Qiao

We propose a constraint-based predictor decomposition approach that exploits predictive information in commonly used predictors to improve equity premium forecasts. The approach identifies and quantifies unexpected changes as deviation tendency while bounding values to capture central tendency. Predictions from the two tendencies are then synthesized. Empirical analysis shows this approach outperforms existing methods, producing statistically and economically significant out-of-sample results. These findings validate the ability of our approach to capture both tendencies. We also extend the analysis to multivariate prediction, where results consistently confirm its superiority. Finally, robustness tests and additional analyses demonstrate that the approach delivers stable and reliable forecasting performance.

我们提出了一种基于约束的预测因子分解方法，该方法利用常用预测因子中的预测信息来改进股票溢价预测。该方法将意外变化识别并量化为偏差趋势，而边界值捕获集中趋势。然后综合这两种趋势的预测。实证分析表明，该方法优于现有方法，产生统计上和经济上显著的样本外结果。这些发现证实了我们的方法能够捕捉到这两种趋势。我们还将分析扩展到多变量预测，结果一致地证实了它的优越性。最后，鲁棒性测试和附加分析表明，该方法提供了稳定可靠的预测性能。

引用次数: 0

AI strategies for financial inclusion and gender equality in MENAT: Evidence from Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE 中东和北非地区促进金融包容性和性别平等的人工智能战略：来自埃及、土耳其和阿联酋的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101181

Merih Angın, Eylem Güner, Pelin Kılınçarslan

Despite widespread artificial intelligence (AI) and financial-inclusion strategies across Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey (MENAT) countries, their implications for gender equality remain underexplored. This study bridges this gap by employing natural language processing techniques, specifically a RoBERTa model fine-tuned for Sustainable Development Goal 5 (Gender Equality), to analyze publicly available national AI strategy documents from MENAT countries. Our high-accuracy thematic classification reveals substantial variation in countries' approaches to gender-focused financial inclusion. Through an in-depth comparative assessment of Egypt, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), we find distinct approaches: the UAE demonstrates strong AI readiness yet limited focus on socio-economic inclusivity, Turkey shows moderate attention to integrating gender in financial inclusion, and Egypt, despite ambitious goals, faces significant implementation challenges. These findings underscore the diverse challenges and opportunities in leveraging AI to enhance financial inclusion and empower women, reflecting varied socio-economic priorities and execution capacities across the MENAT region.

尽管人工智能（AI）和金融包容性战略在中东、北非和土耳其（MENAT）国家广泛传播，但它们对性别平等的影响仍未得到充分探讨。本研究通过采用自然语言处理技术，特别是针对可持续发展目标5（性别平等）进行微调的RoBERTa模型，来分析MENAT国家公开的国家人工智能战略文件，从而弥补了这一差距。我们的高精度专题分类揭示了各国在以性别为重点的普惠金融方法上的巨大差异。通过对埃及、土耳其和阿拉伯联合酋长国（阿联酋）的深入比较评估，我们发现了不同的方法：阿联酋表现出强大的人工智能准备，但对社会经济包容性的关注有限；土耳其对将性别纳入金融包容性的关注有限；埃及尽管目标雄心勃勃，但在实施方面面临重大挑战。这些发现强调了利用人工智能加强普惠金融和赋予妇女权力方面的各种挑战和机遇，反映了MENAT地区不同的社会经济优先事项和执行能力。

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引用次数: 0

Nonparametric identification of factors for the cross-section of Latin American stock returns 拉丁美洲股票收益横截面因素的非参数识别

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101172

Simón Zuluaga-Rendón , Diego A. Agudelo

Factor Investing, a widely recognized investment approach, remains relatively underexplored in Latin American stock markets. This study investigates the determinants of stock returns in Latin America employing the Group Adaptive Elastic Net within a nonparametric framework from 2000 to 2020. Initially assessing 34 widely recognized financial factors, our analysis identifies that a set of six factors captures most of the variance in cross-sectional returns in the proposed model: Volatility, Assets-to-Market ratio, Cash Flow to Price, Earnings to Price, Intermediate Momentum, and Turnover. Furthermore, an active Factor Investing strategy derived from this framework demonstrates substantial outperformance relative to a benchmark index in out-of-sample testing. Overall, we find evidence of short-term predictability of returns in Latin American stocks based on nonlinear and dynamic factor effects.

要素投资是一种被广泛认可的投资方法，但在拉丁美洲股票市场仍未得到充分探索。本研究在2000年至2020年的非参数框架内，采用集团自适应弹性网研究了拉丁美洲股票收益的决定因素。首先评估了34个公认的金融因素，我们的分析发现，在建议的模型中，一组六个因素捕捉了横截面回报的大部分差异：波动性、资产与市场比率、现金流量与价格、收益与价格、中间动量和周转率。此外，在样本外测试中，源自该框架的主动因子投资策略相对于基准指数表现出显著的优异表现。总体而言，我们发现基于非线性和动态因素效应的拉丁美洲股票收益的短期可预测性的证据。

引用次数: 0

Walking quietly: Fiduciary waivers and blockholder exit 悄无声息地走着：受托人豁免和大股东退出

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101196

Pouyan Foroughi

Corporate opportunity waivers let directors pursue outside ventures, weakening the duty of loyalty that supports investor confidence. Exploiting staggered state adoptions of these statutes from 2000 to 2018, we examine how blockholders, the market’s main bulwark against self-dealing, react. Public governance signals barely change; support for management proposals slips by less than one percentage point, failed director elections fall, and friendly hedge fund activism fades. Once scrutiny shifts toward the potential outcomes of private monitoring, a strikingly different picture emerges, as larger firms experience more frequent departures of independent directors, activists who once cooperated with management adopt confrontational tactics, and long-horizon investors pare their stakes, especially where diversion prospects are very high, analyst coverage is extensive, and boards are larger. Loosening fiduciary standards, therefore, gradually weakens shareholder oversight, eroding a critical governance mechanism and placing long-term firm value at risk, despite initial market optimism.

公司机会豁免让董事们追求外部投资，削弱了支持投资者信心的忠诚义务。利用2000年至2018年各州交错采用这些法规的情况，我们研究了市场上反对自我交易的主要堡垒——大股东的反应。公共治理信号几乎没有变化；管理提案的支持率下降了不到一个百分点，董事选举失败，友好的对冲基金激进主义消退。一旦审查转向私人监督的潜在结果，一幅截然不同的画面就会出现，因为大公司的独立董事离职更频繁，曾经与管理层合作的激进分子采取对抗策略，长期投资者削减他们的股份，特别是在转移前景非常高、分析师覆盖范围广泛、董事会规模更大的地方。因此，放松信托标准会逐渐削弱股东监督，侵蚀关键的治理机制，并使公司的长期价值面临风险，尽管市场最初持乐观态度。

引用次数: 0

Seeing is believing: Forecasting oil market returns with artificial intelligence-powered visual climate change perception 眼见为实：利用人工智能驱动的视觉气候变化感知预测石油市场回报

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101174

Dan Liu

This study proposes a novel framework for forecasting oil market returns by quantifying climate change perception based on visual media. A vision-language model processes 746,435 news images from The New York Times between May 2006 and December 2023 to construct the Visual Climate Change Perception Index (VCCP), along with two sub-indices. The VCCP exhibits significant predictive power for one-month-ahead WTI spot returns, outperforming text-based climate sentiment and macroeconomic benchmarks. The Physical Climate Impact Visual Index contributes to short-term return predictability, while the Transitional Climate Policy Visual Index captures longer-horizon dynamics. Out-of-sample analyses confirm the robustness and economic relevance of VCCP-based models, enhancing forecast accuracy and improving asset allocation performance. These findings underscore the role of emotionally salient visual cues in shaping market expectations and highlight the importance of multimodal climate signals in the pricing of high-carbon assets.

本研究提出了一种基于视觉媒体的量化气候变化感知预测石油市场回报的新框架。一个视觉语言模型处理了2006年5月至2023年12月期间来自《纽约时报》的746,435张新闻图像，以构建视觉气候变化感知指数（VCCP）以及两个子指数。VCCP对未来一个月WTI现货收益表现出显著的预测能力，优于基于文本的气候情绪和宏观经济基准。物理气候影响目视指数有助于短期回报的可预测性，而过渡性气候政策目视指数则捕捉长期动态。样本外分析证实了基于vccp模型的稳健性和经济相关性，提高了预测准确性并改善了资产配置绩效。这些发现强调了情感上显著的视觉线索在塑造市场预期中的作用，并强调了多式联运气候信号在高碳资产定价中的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Sovereign fiscal capacity, implicit subsidies, and bank value 主权财政能力、隐性补贴和银行价值

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101197

Lucas N.C. Vasconcelos, Rafael Schiozer

This study examines how fiscal constraints affect banks' market value in a cross-country sample, using exogenous variations in fiscal constraints based on abnormal military spending. Increased fiscal constraints arising from exogenous spending shocks can affect bank valuation through two different channels with opposing expected effects: spending shocks weaken governments' ability to stabilize the financial system during crises, resulting in lower bank valuation; however, when fiscal constraints are heightened because of positive sector-specific spending shocks (increased military expenditure), corporate earnings—particularly in sectors that are heavily dependent on government contracts—become more predictable, which subsequently reduces banks' earnings volatility, thereby increasing their valuation. We find that fiscal constraints negatively impact banks' valuation, which is consistent with the first channel (i.e., owing to the reduced proportion of banks' value composed by implicit or explicit governmental guarantees). In addition, bank resolution reforms adopted after the global financial crisis attenuate this relationship, but do not completely eliminate it. The sovereign–bank nexus remains relevant and concentrated in large banks. Our inferences provide insights in favor of strengthening bank resolution frameworks, to reduce banks' reliance on governmental funds and ensure bailouts occur only when welfare-enhancing. By limiting expectations of unconditional government support, these regulations may mitigate too-big-to-fail perceptions.

本研究在一个跨国样本中考察了财政约束如何影响银行的市场价值，使用了基于异常军事支出的财政约束的外生变化。外生支出冲击导致的财政约束增加可以通过两种不同的渠道影响银行估值，其预期效果是相反的：支出冲击削弱了政府在危机期间稳定金融体系的能力，导致银行估值下降；然而，当财政约束因积极的特定部门支出冲击（增加军事开支）而加剧时，企业收益——特别是在严重依赖政府合同的部门——变得更可预测，这随后降低了银行收益的波动性，从而提高了它们的估值。我们发现，财政约束对银行估值产生了负面影响，这与第一种渠道一致（即，由于隐性或显性政府担保构成的银行价值比例降低）。此外，全球金融危机后采取的银行决议改革削弱了这种关系，但并未完全消除这种关系。主权与银行之间的联系仍然存在，而且主要集中在大型银行。我们的推论提供了有利于加强银行处置框架的见解，以减少银行对政府资金的依赖，并确保只有在福利增加时才会进行救助。通过限制对政府无条件支持的期望，这些规定可能会减轻人们对“大而不能倒”的看法。

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引用次数: 0

Beyond the green facade: Evidence of a nonlinear link between greenwashing and financing efficiency 超越绿色门面：洗绿与融资效率之间非线性联系的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101183

Morong Xu , Yaopeng Wang

This study examines the nonlinear relationship between corporate greenwashing and financing efficiency using panel data from Chinese listed firms between 2009 and 2023. We identify an inverted U-shaped relationship grounded in signaling theory and the peer effect perspective. At low levels, greenwashing allows firms to gain legitimacy by signaling environmental responsibility and encouraging peer imitation, thereby improving financing efficiency. However, as greenwashing intensifies, stakeholder skepticism increases, leading to higher financing costs and reduced efficiency. We also explore contextual factors that moderate this relationship. Media coverage amplifies stakeholder reactions to both credible and exaggerated environmental, social, and governance (ESG) claims, while board interlocks facilitate the spread of greenwashing practices and heighten reputational risks within corporate networks. Collectively, these elements reinforce the nonlinear connection between greenwashing and financing efficiency. The results highlight the complex dynamics linking greenwashing with financing conditions and demonstrate the contingent roles of media visibility and governance networks in shaping market perceptions of ESG behavior.

本文利用2009 - 2023年中国上市公司的面板数据，考察了企业漂绿与融资效率之间的非线性关系。我们在信号理论和同伴效应视角下发现了一种倒u型关系。在低层次上，“洗绿”可以让企业通过发出环境责任信号和鼓励同行模仿来获得合法性，从而提高融资效率。然而，随着“漂绿”的加剧，利益相关者的怀疑情绪也在增加，导致融资成本上升，效率下降。我们还探讨了调节这种关系的环境因素。媒体的报道放大了利益相关者对可信和夸大的环境、社会和治理（ESG）主张的反应，而董事会的连锁反应促进了“漂绿”行为的传播，并加剧了企业网络中的声誉风险。总的来说，这些因素强化了漂绿与融资效率之间的非线性联系。研究结果强调了将“漂绿”与融资条件联系起来的复杂动态，并展示了媒体知名度和治理网络在塑造市场对ESG行为的看法方面的偶然作用。

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引用次数: 0

Does climate risk influence exchange rates? 气候风险会影响汇率吗？

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101203

Yu Ma , Wenxia Zhao , Zijun Ding

Climate risk has emerged as a major global challenge with significant implications for the dynamics of exchange rates. By constructing a Climate Physical Risk Index based on extreme weather events across 77 countries from 1993 to 2022, this study examines whether climate shocks affect exchange rates. Fixed-effects models for panel data are employed to assess the cross-national impact of climate risk. The results indicate that climate shocks contribute to currency depreciation, with pronounced effects observed in developing countries, economies characterized by floating exchange rate regimes and those with lower levels of openness, and nations situated in the Northern Hemisphere. An analysis of the mechanisms reveals that climate risk affects exchange rates through various channels, such as deteriorating current accounts, widening fiscal deficits, hindering economic growth, and reducing total factor productivity. By introducing a cross-national risk index into the process of determining exchange rates, this study expands the intersection of climate economics and international finance. This study highlights significant policy implications for designing change rate regimes, fiscal planning, and enhancing resilience through investment strategies.

气候风险已成为一项重大的全球挑战，对汇率动态具有重大影响。本研究基于1993年至2022年77个国家的极端天气事件构建了气候物理风险指数，考察了气候冲击是否会影响汇率。面板数据的固定效应模型被用来评估气候风险的跨国影响。结果表明，气候冲击有助于货币贬值，在发展中国家、浮动汇率制度的经济体和开放程度较低的经济体以及北半球国家观察到明显的影响。对机制的分析表明，气候风险通过各种渠道影响汇率，如经常账户恶化、财政赤字扩大、阻碍经济增长和降低全要素生产率。通过将跨国风险指数引入汇率确定过程，本研究扩展了气候经济学与国际金融的交集。本研究强调了设计变化率制度、财政规划和通过投资策略增强韧性的重要政策意义。

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引用次数: 0

Political turnover and related party transactions in Chinese state-owned enterprises 中国国有企业的政治更替与关联交易

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Global Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101182

Mingfa Ding , Yikai Han , Mi Shen , Sandy Suardi

This paper investigates the dual role of government involvement in Chinese firms, acting as both a “helping hand” and a “grabbing hand”, with a focus on state-owned enterprises (SOEs). We examine how political turnover influences related party transactions (RPTs), which may serve to prop up distressed firms or facilitate tunnelling at the expense of minority shareholders. We find that political turnover is associated with a significant decline in RPTs, a causal relationship supported by multiple analyses addressing endogeneity concerns. Further evidence suggests that SOEs reduce tunnelling when local governments face fiscal constraints and curb propping activities when firms are at risk of delisting or losing rights to issue new shares. The reduction in RPTs is more pronounced in firms with high initial RPTs, weak governance, or exposure to local corruption, and is amplified when new provincial leaders are outsiders. These findings suggest that political turnover acts as an external governance mechanism, disrupting entrenched rent-seeking practices and reshaping firm-level resource allocation.

本文以国有企业为研究对象，考察了政府介入中国企业的双重角色，既充当“援助之手”，又充当“掠夺之手”。我们研究了政治更替如何影响关联交易（RPTs），这可能有助于支持陷入困境的公司或以牺牲少数股东为代价促进隧道挖掘。我们发现，政治更替与rpt的显著下降有关，这种因果关系得到了解决内生性问题的多重分析的支持。进一步的证据表明，当地方政府面临财政约束时，国有企业会减少挖洞活动，当企业面临退市或失去新股发行权的风险时，国有企业会抑制支持活动。在初始生产效率较高、治理薄弱或暴露于地方腐败的企业中，生产效率的降低更为明显，当新的省级领导人是外来者时，这种降低会被放大。这些发现表明，政治更替作为一种外部治理机制，破坏了根深蒂固的寻租行为，重塑了企业层面的资源配置。

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