Abstract This paper is the first to provide estimates of how minimum wages affect worker flows and employment growth rates in an employment scarce developing country context. We investigate the effects of a large, exogenous increase in agricultural minimum wages in South Africa. We find that changes occurred primarily among non‐seasonal workers. Non‐seasonal agricultural employment growth decreased in the initial periods after the minimum wage hike. This was mainly driven by slower rates of entry. The effect on the rate of entry decreases over time. While farms also responded by shedding non‐seasonal workers at higher rates, this negative effect was limited to 1 year directly after the minimum wage hike. Employment growth recovers 4 years after the policy shock, indicating that firms adjusted relatively quickly despite the large legislated minimum wage increase. Seasonal employment growth and rates of entry and exit of seasonal workers were for the most part unaffected. Descriptive statistics, however, suggest a slight compositional change among seasonal workers: Farms replaced the worst paid seasonal workers with other low‐income workers who were slightly better paid and presumably more productive.
{"title":"The impact of agricultural minimum wages on worker flows in South Africa","authors":"Marlies Piek, Dieter von Fintel, Johann Kirsten","doi":"10.1111/saje.12357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12357","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper is the first to provide estimates of how minimum wages affect worker flows and employment growth rates in an employment scarce developing country context. We investigate the effects of a large, exogenous increase in agricultural minimum wages in South Africa. We find that changes occurred primarily among non‐seasonal workers. Non‐seasonal agricultural employment growth decreased in the initial periods after the minimum wage hike. This was mainly driven by slower rates of entry. The effect on the rate of entry decreases over time. While farms also responded by shedding non‐seasonal workers at higher rates, this negative effect was limited to 1 year directly after the minimum wage hike. Employment growth recovers 4 years after the policy shock, indicating that firms adjusted relatively quickly despite the large legislated minimum wage increase. Seasonal employment growth and rates of entry and exit of seasonal workers were for the most part unaffected. Descriptive statistics, however, suggest a slight compositional change among seasonal workers: Farms replaced the worst paid seasonal workers with other low‐income workers who were slightly better paid and presumably more productive.","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136071182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We estimate COVID‐19‐related employment and poverty impacts in South Africa. We observe a 40% decline in active employment between February and April 2020, half of which was composed of job terminations rather than furloughs. Initially, vulnerable groups were disproportionately affected by the labour market shock. Exploiting the dataset's panel dimension and comparing lockdown incomes of job losers to reweighted job retainers, we estimate that approximately 15%–35% of job losers fell into poverty in April. We find evidence of a limited recovery in the labour market and a decrease in poverty by June, in part attributable to expanded emergency social assistance.
{"title":"The labour market and poverty impacts of COVID‐19 in South Africa","authors":"Ihsaan Bassier, Joshua Budlender, Rocco Zizzamia, Ronak Jain","doi":"10.1111/saje.12356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12356","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate COVID‐19‐related employment and poverty impacts in South Africa. We observe a 40% decline in active employment between February and April 2020, half of which was composed of job terminations rather than furloughs. Initially, vulnerable groups were disproportionately affected by the labour market shock. Exploiting the dataset's panel dimension and comparing lockdown incomes of job losers to reweighted job retainers, we estimate that approximately 15%–35% of job losers fell into poverty in April. We find evidence of a limited recovery in the labour market and a decrease in poverty by June, in part attributable to expanded emergency social assistance.","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46461313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article studies the structural aggregate productivity growth (APG) decomposition with demand‐ and supply‐side controls, determines comparative statics predictions for firms and economic outcomes and examines patterns of input distortions. By moving from price‐taking conditions to markets featuring markup heterogeneity for product varieties, the paper finds amplification of production inefficiency from −3.61% to −11.41% and amplification of total factor reallocation from 0.15% to 8.91%. The productivity results are robust to structural variations in the demand function, firm scale adjustment and firm growth. Similarly, input reallocation is robust to variation in demand structure and plant expansion. Furthermore, reallocation under common markups among all firms is robust to reallocation under heterogeneous markups among larger firms. Alternatively, large firms face demand inelasticities and charge higher markups thereby mimicking the behaviour of the survey of all firms. Under autarky, small unproductive plants charge higher markups than their small efficient counterparts. Demand elasticity increases (decreases) with industry output for smaller (larger) plants. Finally, a unit increase in capital intensity for resource‐constrained plants raises labour distortions and reduces capital distortions while reducing capital distortions for resource‐unconstrained firms.
{"title":"Productivity and reallocation under monopolistic competition: A Micro panel data analysis","authors":"Samuel Vika Mhlanga","doi":"10.1111/saje.12355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12355","url":null,"abstract":"This article studies the structural aggregate productivity growth (APG) decomposition with demand‐ and supply‐side controls, determines comparative statics predictions for firms and economic outcomes and examines patterns of input distortions. By moving from price‐taking conditions to markets featuring markup heterogeneity for product varieties, the paper finds amplification of production inefficiency from −3.61% to −11.41% and amplification of total factor reallocation from 0.15% to 8.91%. The productivity results are robust to structural variations in the demand function, firm scale adjustment and firm growth. Similarly, input reallocation is robust to variation in demand structure and plant expansion. Furthermore, reallocation under common markups among all firms is robust to reallocation under heterogeneous markups among larger firms. Alternatively, large firms face demand inelasticities and charge higher markups thereby mimicking the behaviour of the survey of all firms. Under autarky, small unproductive plants charge higher markups than their small efficient counterparts. Demand elasticity increases (decreases) with industry output for smaller (larger) plants. Finally, a unit increase in capital intensity for resource‐constrained plants raises labour distortions and reduces capital distortions while reducing capital distortions for resource‐unconstrained firms.","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41842709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Carolyn Chisadza, Matthew Clance, F. van der Merwe, Eleni Yitbarek
This paper examines the effect of terrain ruggedness on child stunting in Burundi, Cameroon, Ethiopia and Nigeria. Using a cross‐section analysis with data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and a measure that captures variation in the terrains of the countries, we find that the more difficult it is to traverse the terrain in Burundi, Cameroon and Nigeria, the higher the likelihood of child stunting. However, this association is not consistent for Ethiopia until we account for the Oromia region, which has the capital city Addis Ababa. These results remain robust with the inclusion of socio‐economic factors related to child health (e.g. maternal health, maternal education and household income), demographic factors (e.g. gender of child), other geographical factors (e.g. rainfall patterns and malaria prevalence) and survey and region effects. The results suggest that there are complementary factors to geography that may contribute to poor child health outcomes, such as the quality of infrastructure and the ability to access healthcare services. Given that child health is a key development outcome, understanding such spatial variations associated with child health inequalities can assist in designing effective intervention programmes and allocating resources where they are most needed.
{"title":"Ruggedness and child health outcomes: Evidence from Burundi, Cameroon, Ethiopia and Nigeria","authors":"Carolyn Chisadza, Matthew Clance, F. van der Merwe, Eleni Yitbarek","doi":"10.1111/saje.12354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12354","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of terrain ruggedness on child stunting in Burundi, Cameroon, Ethiopia and Nigeria. Using a cross‐section analysis with data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and a measure that captures variation in the terrains of the countries, we find that the more difficult it is to traverse the terrain in Burundi, Cameroon and Nigeria, the higher the likelihood of child stunting. However, this association is not consistent for Ethiopia until we account for the Oromia region, which has the capital city Addis Ababa. These results remain robust with the inclusion of socio‐economic factors related to child health (e.g. maternal health, maternal education and household income), demographic factors (e.g. gender of child), other geographical factors (e.g. rainfall patterns and malaria prevalence) and survey and region effects. The results suggest that there are complementary factors to geography that may contribute to poor child health outcomes, such as the quality of infrastructure and the ability to access healthcare services. Given that child health is a key development outcome, understanding such spatial variations associated with child health inequalities can assist in designing effective intervention programmes and allocating resources where they are most needed.","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46407766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jonathan E. Ogbuabor, Ekene ThankGod Emeka, E. Nwosu
Following the paucity of empirical evidence on the effects of terrorism and uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa and the moderating role of governance institutions on these relationships, this study raised two important questions. First, how are terrorism and uncertainty impacting on economic complexity in Africa? Second, how are governance institutions moderating the effects of terrorism and uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa? To answer these questions, the study employed pooled ordinary least squares and dynamic system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators, with a panel of 33 African countries over the period 2010–2021. We find that the unconditional effects of terrorism and uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa are predominantly negative and significant. We also find that governance institutions predominantly have unconditional positive and significant impact on economic complexity in Africa but failed to moderate the adverse effect of uncertainty on economic complexity. However, trade openness, international tourism and lagged economic complexity are potent factors promoting economic complexity in Africa, while physical capital stock remained a deterring factor. The study concluded that policymakers and leaders in Africa should engage in collaborative efforts at the African Union level to promote high‐quality institutions, while simultaneously addressing the detrimental effects of terrorism and uncertainty on the continent.
{"title":"Effects of terrorism and economic policy uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa: A study of the moderating role of governance institutions","authors":"Jonathan E. Ogbuabor, Ekene ThankGod Emeka, E. Nwosu","doi":"10.1111/saje.12353","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12353","url":null,"abstract":"Following the paucity of empirical evidence on the effects of terrorism and uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa and the moderating role of governance institutions on these relationships, this study raised two important questions. First, how are terrorism and uncertainty impacting on economic complexity in Africa? Second, how are governance institutions moderating the effects of terrorism and uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa? To answer these questions, the study employed pooled ordinary least squares and dynamic system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators, with a panel of 33 African countries over the period 2010–2021. We find that the unconditional effects of terrorism and uncertainty on economic complexity in Africa are predominantly negative and significant. We also find that governance institutions predominantly have unconditional positive and significant impact on economic complexity in Africa but failed to moderate the adverse effect of uncertainty on economic complexity. However, trade openness, international tourism and lagged economic complexity are potent factors promoting economic complexity in Africa, while physical capital stock remained a deterring factor. The study concluded that policymakers and leaders in Africa should engage in collaborative efforts at the African Union level to promote high‐quality institutions, while simultaneously addressing the detrimental effects of terrorism and uncertainty on the continent.","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49051930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chevaughn van der Westhuizen, R. van Eyden, G. C. Aye
{"title":"Is inflation uncertainty a self‐fulfilling prophecy in South Africa?","authors":"Chevaughn van der Westhuizen, R. van Eyden, G. C. Aye","doi":"10.1111/saje.12351","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12351","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47024736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Public spending, credit market conditions and economic activity in South Africa","authors":"N. Nuru","doi":"10.1111/saje.12352","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12352","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49308793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Background: Induction of labour has remained one of the most valuable interventions in obstetric practice. Over the years, the proportion of women undergoing induction of labour (IOL) has been on a steady increase. The significance to obstetrics practice as well as its maternal and perinatal outcomes are sacrosanct, hence the need for its periodic review.
Objective: To determine the obstetric outcomes of induction of labour.
Methods: A five-year retrospective study of all cases of induction of labour at the maternity unit of Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital (NAUTH), Nnewi, Nigeria between January 1st 2017 and 31st December 2021. The labour ward's records were assessed to determine the total number of women who had induction of labour during the study period. Women whose case files could be not retrieved were excluded. The folder numbers of the patients were extracted and their case files retrieved from the medical records department of the hospital. The primary outcomes measures were the indications and the methods of induction of labour, while the secondary outcome measures were the mode of delivery, cause of failed induction, and the perinatal outcome. Data were obtained using proformas and analysed using statistical packages for social sciences (SPSS) version 26.0 IBM corporation.
Result: A total of 3,638 deliveries were taken during the period under review and 168 patients had induction of labour giving an overall prevalence of 4.6% (46/1000 deliveries). Induction of labour was successful in 71.2% of cases. Misoprostol was used in 90.4% of cases as an induction agent. The commonest indication for induction of labour was postdate pregnancy (53.8%). Failed induction was due to fetal distress, poor progress of labour from cephalopelvic disproportion/malposition and failed cervical ripening. In about 72% of deliveries, there was good perinatal outcome, 10.3% of babies had moderate to severe asphyxia while 1.3% had neonatal death.
Conclusion: Induction of labour is a safe and beneficial procedure in obstetrics. However, it can be associated with adverse obstetric outcomes.
{"title":"Obstetric Outcome of Induction of Labour in a Tertiary Hospital in Nigeria: A Five-Year Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study.","authors":"Harrison Chiro Ugwuoroko, George Uchenna Eleje, Chigozie Geoffrey Okafor, Zebulon Chiawolamoke Okechukwu, Ahizechukwu Chigoziem Eke, Chukwuemeka Chukwubuikem Okoro, Lazarus Ugochukwu Okafor, Chidinma Charity Okafor, Chukwudi Anthony Ogabido, Tobechi Kingsley Njoku, Chukwudubem Chinagorom Onyejiaka, Adanna Vivian Egwim, Hillary Ikechukwu Obiagwu, JohnBosco Emmanuel Mamah, Chinedu Lawrence Olisa, Nnanyerugo Livinus Onah, Gerald Okanandu Udigwe","doi":"10.23958/ijirms/vol08-i07/1706","DOIUrl":"10.23958/ijirms/vol08-i07/1706","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Induction of labour has remained one of the most valuable interventions in obstetric practice. Over the years, the proportion of women undergoing induction of labour (IOL) has been on a steady increase. The significance to obstetrics practice as well as its maternal and perinatal outcomes are sacrosanct, hence the need for its periodic review.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>To determine the obstetric outcomes of induction of labour.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A five-year retrospective study of all cases of induction of labour at the maternity unit of Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital (NAUTH), Nnewi, Nigeria between January 1st 2017 and 31st December 2021. The labour ward's records were assessed to determine the total number of women who had induction of labour during the study period. Women whose case files could be not retrieved were excluded. The folder numbers of the patients were extracted and their case files retrieved from the medical records department of the hospital. The primary outcomes measures were the indications and the methods of induction of labour, while the secondary outcome measures were the mode of delivery, cause of failed induction, and the perinatal outcome. Data were obtained using proformas and analysed using statistical packages for social sciences (SPSS) version 26.0 IBM corporation.</p><p><strong>Result: </strong>A total of 3,638 deliveries were taken during the period under review and 168 patients had induction of labour giving an overall prevalence of 4.6% (46/1000 deliveries). Induction of labour was successful in 71.2% of cases. Misoprostol was used in 90.4% of cases as an induction agent. The commonest indication for induction of labour was postdate pregnancy (53.8%). Failed induction was due to fetal distress, poor progress of labour from cephalopelvic disproportion/malposition and failed cervical ripening. In about 72% of deliveries, there was good perinatal outcome, 10.3% of babies had moderate to severe asphyxia while 1.3% had neonatal death.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Induction of labour is a safe and beneficial procedure in obstetrics. However, it can be associated with adverse obstetric outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":"17 1","pages":"235-240"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10659585/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85441147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Macroeconomic challenges of scaling up aid to West African Economic and Monetary Union","authors":"S. Dedehouanou, Abou Kane","doi":"10.1111/saje.12350","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12350","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42643882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Frank Bannor, Isaiah Hubert Magambo, J. Mahabir, Jeanluc Mubenga Tshitaka
{"title":"Interdependence between climate change and migration: Does agriculture, geography, and development level matter in sub‐Saharan Africa?","authors":"Frank Bannor, Isaiah Hubert Magambo, J. Mahabir, Jeanluc Mubenga Tshitaka","doi":"10.1111/saje.12343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12343","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48741240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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