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Identification of the best machine learning model for the prediction of driver injury severity 确定预测驾驶员受伤严重程度的最佳机器学习模型
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2024.2335478
Neero Gumsar Sorum, Dibyendu Pal
Predicting the injury severities sustained by drivers engaged in road traffic accidents is a key topic of research in road traffic safety. The current study analyzed the driver injury severity (DIS...
预测道路交通事故中驾驶员受伤的严重程度是道路交通安全研究的一个重要课题。本研究分析了驾驶员受伤严重程度(DIS...
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引用次数: 0
An Expectancy-Value approach to investigate socio-cognitive determinants of speeding among adolescent powered two-wheeled riders in Vietnam. 一种期望值方法,用于调查越南青少年电动两轮车驾驶员超速的社会认知决定因素。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-19 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2258851
Hoang Nam Le, Tu Anh Trinh, Ariane Cuenen, Davy Janssens, Geert Wets, Kris Brijs

Speeding increases the likelihood and severity of road traffic crashes, but many riders do not consider speeding as a serious safety issue. By using belief-based variables derived from the Theory of Planned Behaviour (i.e. behavioural beliefs, normative beliefs, and control beliefs), this study investigated the socio-cognitive determinants of speeding intentions among Vietnamese adolescents operating motorized/electrified two-wheelers. 189 adolescent powered two-wheeled riders in Ho Chi Minh City participated in a cross-sectional survey. The results lend clear support to the Expectancy-Value approach since belief-based product factors (e.g. outcome beliefs x outcome evaluations) significantly and independently contributed to the prediction of speeding intentions. Speeding intentions were mostly influenced by behavioural beliefs, followed by normative beliefs and control beliefs, respectively. This study not only proves the Expectancy-Value approach as an appropriate framework for the investigation of speeding intentions but also supports authorities in the formulation and execution of more effective interventions for reducing speeding among adolescent powered two-wheeled riders in Vietnam. Instead of motivation-oriented methods, there is a need for strategies that stimulate the translation of good intentions into the desirable behaviour, and encourage adolescents not to relapse in case they are exposed to risk facilitating circumstances. Yet, besides focussing on person-specific dispositions towards speeding, policy makers are advised to adopt a more broadly encompassing systemic approach with inclusion of safe roads, safe vehicles, improved post-crash care, and shared stakeholder responsibilities.

超速会增加道路交通事故的可能性和严重程度,但许多骑手并不认为超速是一个严重的安全问题。本研究利用计划行为理论中基于信念的变量(即行为信念、规范信念和控制信念),调查了驾驶电动/电动两轮车的越南青少年超速意图的社会认知决定因素。胡志明市189名青少年电动两轮车骑手参加了一项横断面调查。研究结果明确支持了期望值方法,因为基于信念的产品因素(如结果信念x结果评估)显著且独立地有助于预测加速意图。超速意图主要受行为信念的影响,其次分别是规范信念和控制信念。这项研究不仅证明了期望值方法是调查超速意图的适当框架,而且支持当局制定和执行更有效的干预措施,以减少越南青少年电动两轮车驾驶员的超速。需要的不是以动机为导向的方法,而是刺激将良好意图转化为理想行为的策略,并鼓励青少年在面临助长风险的环境时不要复发。然而,除了关注个人对超速的具体处理外,政策制定者还被建议采取一种更广泛的系统性方法,包括安全道路、安全车辆、改进事故后护理和分担利益相关者的责任。
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引用次数: 0
Identification and screening of key traffic violations: based on the perspective of expressing driver's accident risk. 主要交通违规行为的识别和筛查:基于表达驾驶员事故风险的视角。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2245804
Rui Zhang, Bin Shuai, Wencheng Huang, Shihang Zhang

Drawing on the core idea of Propensity Score Matching, this study proposes a new concept named Historical Traffic Violation Propensity to describe the driver's historical traffic violations, and combines the new concept with an improved mutual information-based feature selection algorithm to construct a method for screening key traffic violations from the perspective of expressing driver's accident risk. The validation analysis based on the real data collected in Shenzhen demonstrated that drivers' state of Historical Traffic Violation Propensity on 19 key traffic violations screened have a stronger predictive ability of their subsequent accidents compared to the level in existing research. The positive state of Historical Traffic Violation Propensity on 'Drinking', 'Parking in dangerous areas', 'Wrong use of turn lights', 'Violating prohibited and restricted traffic regulations', and 'Disobeying prohibition sign' will increase the probability of a driver's subsequent accident by more than 1.7 times. The research provides directions to more efficiently and accurately capture the driver's accident risk through historical traffic violations, which is valuable for identifying high-risk drivers as well as the key psychological or physical risk factors that manifest in daily driving activities and lead to subsequent accidents.

本研究借鉴倾向得分匹配(Propensity Score Matching)的核心思想,提出了描述驾驶人历史交通违法行为的新概念--历史交通违法倾向(Historical Traffic Violation Propensity),并将新概念与改进的基于互信息的特征选择算法相结合,从表达驾驶人事故风险的角度构建了关键交通违法行为的筛选方法。基于在深圳采集的真实数据的验证分析表明,与现有研究水平相比,驾驶员在 19 项重点交通违法行为筛选中的历史交通违法倾向状态对其后续事故具有更强的预测能力。在 "饮酒"、"在危险区域停车"、"错误使用转向灯"、"违反禁止和限制通行的交通法规"、"不遵守禁令标志 "等方面的历史交通违法倾向为正值时,驾驶员发生交通事故的概率将增加1.7倍以上。这项研究为通过历史交通违规行为更有效、更准确地捕捉驾驶员的事故风险提供了方向,对于识别高风险驾驶员以及在日常驾驶活动中表现出来并导致后续事故的关键心理或生理风险因素非常有价值。
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引用次数: 0
The challenge of meeting global targets for road traffic fatality reduction. 实现全球减少道路交通死亡目标的挑战。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2024.2322910
Geetam Tiwari
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引用次数: 0
Lessons learned from characteristics of extraordinarily severe traffic crashes in China, 2004-2019. 2004-2019年中国特大交通事故特点的经验教训。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2279959
Lai Zheng, Peng Gu, Wei Wei

China has experienced remarkable achievements in terms of reducing the number of extraordinarily severe traffic crashes (ESTCs) that cause more than 10 deaths each crash. However, ESTCs still occur occasionally and result in extremely adverse social impacts. This study aims at investigating the common characteristics, characteristic patterns, and changes of characteristics of ESTCs in China with the expectation to learn from the past and act for the future. A total of 373 ESTCs occurred in 2004-2019 were collected, and characteristics of driver factors, road factors, vehicle factors, environment factors, and other factors were analyzed through the multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). The results show that run off road crashes, not qualified drivers, improper driving, large bus, overload, class II highway, and straight road sections are the most common categories of characteristics. In addition, four underlying characteristic patterns are identified through the MCA. Significant changes in characteristics and characteristic patterns are also found, and these changes are the results of various law enforcement, safety policies, educational interventions, and engineering interventions. It is also inferred that the specific law enforcement targeting to certain category of characteristics is more effective than the corresponding safety campaigns or policies in terms of ESTC prevention.

中国在减少每次造成10人以上死亡的特大交通事故数量方面取得了显著成就。然而,无害环境技术仍然偶尔发生,并造成极其不利的社会影响。本研究旨在探讨我国无害环境贸易的共同特征、特征模式和特征变化,以期惩前毖后。共收集了2004-2019年发生的373起ESTC,通过多元对应分析(MCA)对驾驶员因素、道路因素、车辆因素、环境因素等因素的特征进行了分析。结果表明,失控道路碰撞、驾驶员不合格、驾驶不当、大型客车、超载、二级公路和直行路段是最常见的特征类别。此外,通过MCA识别了四种潜在的特征模式。特征和特征模式也发生了重大变化,这些变化是各种执法、安全政策、教育干预和工程干预的结果。还可以推断,针对某一类特征的具体执法在无害环境污染预防方面比相应的安全运动或政策更有效。
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引用次数: 0
Multilevel structural equation modeling of willingness-to-pay for fatality risk reduction: perspectives of driver and district levels. 降低死亡风险支付意愿的多层次结构方程模型:驾驶员和地区层面的视角。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2266841
Panuwat Wisutwattanasak, Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao, Buratin Khampirat, I-Soon Raungratanaamporn, Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha

Road accidents remain a serious problem and directly affect drivers. Therefore, the perspectives of drivers are important in improving road safety. The objectives of this study are to empirically examine damage due to road accidents using the willingness-to-pay (WTP) approach and to analyze the factors that influence WTP at the driver and district levels. This study obtained data on WTP derived from car drivers across Thailand, which covers 96 districts. The value of statistical life was 824,344 USD per fatality (2,296 million USD annually). The results of Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling revealed a statistically important insight. At the driver level, the Health Belief Model and sociodemographic exert influence on the intention to pay. The demographic factor that has the greatest influence on perceived risk and leads to a high intention to pay is the working age group (γ = 0.826). However, when considering the HBM, perceived susceptibility (γ = 0.901) emerges as the most valuable factor influencing drivers' concerns about road accidents. On the other hand, district-level factors have a negative influence on the intention to pay for road safety measures. Among these factors, the law enforcement (γ = -0.555) practices implemented by local authorities have the most significant impact on drivers' perspectives and intentions regarding WTP. This finding can be used as a guideline for budget allocation and policy recommendation for policymakers in improving road safety according to the area contexts.

道路事故仍然是一个严重的问题,并直接影响到驾驶员。因此,驾驶员的观点对于改善道路安全非常重要。本研究的目的是使用支付意愿(WTP)方法实证检验道路事故造成的损害,并分析驾驶员和地区层面影响WTP的因素。这项研究获得了来自泰国96个地区的汽车司机的WTP数据。统计生命值为每例死亡824344美元(每年22.96亿美元)。多层结构方程建模的结果揭示了一个具有统计学意义的见解。在驾驶员层面,健康信念模型和社会人口学对支付意愿产生影响。对感知风险影响最大并导致高支付意愿的人口统计因素是工作年龄组(γ = 0.826)。然而,当考虑HBM时,感知易感性(γ = 0.901)成为影响驾驶员对道路事故的关注的最有价值的因素。另一方面,地区层面的因素对道路安全措施的支付意愿有负面影响。在这些因素中,地方当局实施的执法(γ=-0.555)做法对驾驶员对WTP的看法和意图影响最大。这一发现可作为预算分配的指导方针和政策建议,供决策者根据地区情况改善道路安全。
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引用次数: 0
Examining factors influencing the severity of motorized two-wheeler crashes in Delhi. 调查影响德里机动两轮车碰撞严重程度的因素。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2267040
Anurag Thombre, Indrajit Ghosh, Amit Agarwal

Failure to meet road safety targets has necessitated urgent actions from stakeholders worldwide, especially in developing countries like India. Road safety of motorized two-wheelers (MTWs), one of India's most preferred travel modes for urban commutes, is in danger and witnessing threatening figures of fatalities and injuries. Most of the studies in the domain of MTW safety were conducted in developed countries, with very limited research in countries having a significant proportion of MTWs. The present work investigates police-reported crash data to identify the contributory factors of motorized two-wheeler crash severity. Data from MTW crash-prone areas were selected from Delhi, which is leading in road traffic fatalities among the million-plus urban cities in India. A binary logistic regression model was developed using the data for 2016-2018 period. The model results show that the odds of fatal motorized two-wheeler crashes increase when the following circumstances apply: crash occurs on underpasses; involves bus, truck, heavy motor vehicle (lorry, crane) as the striking vehicle; when hit-and-run type of crash occurs and when older age-group (> = 55) riders are involved. Finally, based on the findings, countermeasures were suggested to facilitate policymakers and traffic enforcement agencies, in improving the road safety situation of MTW users.

未能实现道路安全目标,需要世界各地的利益相关者采取紧急行动,特别是在印度等发展中国家。机动两轮车是印度城市通勤最受欢迎的出行方式之一,其道路安全正处于危险之中,伤亡人数也很高。MTW安全领域的大多数研究都是在发达国家进行的,在MTW占很大比例的国家进行的研究非常有限。本工作调查了警方报告的碰撞数据,以确定机动两轮车碰撞严重程度的影响因素。MTW事故多发地区的数据来自德里,德里是印度数百万城市中道路交通死亡人数最多的城市。使用2016-2018年期间的数据开发了一个二元逻辑回归模型。模型结果表明,当以下情况适用时,发生致命机动两轮车碰撞的几率会增加:碰撞发生在地下通道上;涉及公共汽车、卡车、重型机动车辆(卡车、起重机)作为打击车辆;当发生肇事逃逸型车祸时,以及当年龄较大的群体(> = 55)骑手参与其中。最后,根据调查结果,提出了促进政策制定者和交通执法机构改善MTW用户道路安全状况的对策。
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引用次数: 0
Road traffic mortality in Iran: longitudinal trend and seasonal analysis, March 2011-February 2020. 伊朗道路交通死亡率:纵向趋势和季节性分析,2011年3月至2020年2月。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-20 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2272239
Milad Delavary, Amir Hossein Kalantari, Abolfazl Mohammadzadeh Moghaddam, Vahid Fakoor, Martin Lavallière, Felix Wilhelm Siebert

Road traffic mortalities (RTMs) and injuries are among the leading causes of human fatalities worldwide, particularly in low-and middle-income countries like Iran. Using an interrupted time series analysis, we investigated three interventional points (two government-mandated fuel price increases and increased traffic ticket fines) for their potential relation to RTMs. Our findings showed that while the overall trend of RTMs was decreasing during the study period, multiple individual provinces showed smaller reductions in RTMs. We also found that both waves of government-mandated fuel price increases coincided with decreases in RTMs. However, the second wave coincided with RTM decreases in a smaller number of provinces than the first wave suggesting that the same type of intervention may not be as effective when repeated. Also, increased traffic ticket fines were only effective in a small number of provinces. Potential reasons and solutions for the findings are discussed in light of Iran's Road Safety Strategic Plan.

道路交通伤亡是全球人类死亡的主要原因之一,尤其是在伊朗等中低收入国家。使用中断时间序列分析,我们调查了三个干预点(两个政府强制燃油价格上涨和交通罚单罚款增加)与RTMs的潜在关系。我们的研究结果表明,虽然RTM的总体趋势在研究期间呈下降趋势,但多个省份的RTM下降幅度较小。我们还发现,政府规定的两波燃料价格上涨与RTM的下降同时发生。然而,与第一波相比,第二波与RTM下降同时发生的省份数量较少,这表明重复进行同样类型的干预可能没有那么有效。此外,增加交通罚单罚款仅在少数省份有效。根据伊朗的道路安全战略计划,讨论了调查结果的潜在原因和解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of distracted driving of online car-hailing drivers on overall driving performance. 网约车司机分心驾驶对整体驾驶表现的影响。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2272242
Qianqian Pang, Shuyan Chen, Yongfeng Ma, Fengxiang Qiao, Yi Zhu

The distraction affects driving performance and induces serious safety issues. To better understand distracted driving, this study examines the influence of distracted driving on overall driving performance. This paper analyzes the distraction behavior (mobile phone use, entertainment activities, and passenger interference) under three driving tasks. The statistical results show that viewing or sending messages is common during driving. Smoking, phone calls, and talking to passengers are evident in cruising, ride request and drop-off, respectively. Then, overall driving performance is proposed based on velocity, longitudinal acceleration (longacc) and yaw_rate. It is divided into three categories, high, medium, and low, by k-means algorithms. The average speed increases from low to high performance; however, the longacc and yaw_rate decrease. Finally, the influence of distracted driving on overall driving performance is analyzed using C4.5 algorithm. The result shows that when time is peak, the probability of high performance (HP) is higher than off-peak. The possibility of HP increases with the increase of duration; the number of, talking to passengers, listening to music or radio, eating; the duration of, viewing or sending messages, phone calls; but reduces with the increase of the number of phone calls. These findings provide theoretical support for driving performance evaluation.

分心会影响驾驶性能并引发严重的安全问题。为了更好地理解分心驾驶,本研究考察了分心驾驶对整体驾驶表现的影响。本文分析了三种驾驶任务下的分心行为(手机使用、娱乐活动和乘客干扰)。统计结果显示,在驾驶过程中查看或发送信息是很常见的。吸烟、打电话和与乘客交谈分别在巡航、请求乘车和还车时表现得很明显。然后,基于速度、纵向加速度(longacc)和横摆角速度提出了整体驾驶性能。它被k均值算法分为三类,高、中、低。平均速度从低性能提高到高性能;然而,longacc和yawrate降低。最后,利用C4.5算法分析了分心驾驶对整体驾驶性能的影响。结果表明,当时间为峰值时,高性能(HP)的概率高于非峰值。HP的可能性随着持续时间的增加而增加;与乘客交谈、听音乐或广播、吃饭的人数;查看或发送信息、电话的持续时间;但是随着电话呼叫次数的增加而减少。这些发现为驾驶性能评价提供了理论支持。
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引用次数: 0
Whether occupational injuries of the industrial workers can be prevented: an analysis from the slums of West Bengal-India? 工业工人的职业伤害是否可以预防——来自印度西孟加拉邦贫民窟的分析?
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-23 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2258511
Shashwati Banerjee, Kishor Goswami

A lack of research exists concerning the heterogeneity of the occupational injuries of slum dwellers across industries which has a close link with health expenditure and hence livelihood. It necessitates analysing their occupational injuries and associated out-of-pocket health expenditures. Multi-stage random sampling is used to collect the primary data and the logit model is used for data analyses. Permanent non-fatal injuries in the civil-mechanical industries and temporary non-fatal injuries in textile industries are common. The share of health expenditure of the injured workers seeking medical consultations remains 59% of their average monthly income. Average monthly income, parental occupation, types of industry, job security, risk intensity, and salary basis are significant estimates of occupational injuries. The differences in the nature and extent of the occupational injuries of the workers across industries in the light of the socio-demographic and working environment context provide significant insight into the policy implications.

缺乏关于贫民窟居民在不同行业的职业伤害异质性的研究,这与医疗支出和生计密切相关。这就需要分析他们的职业伤害和相关的自付医疗支出。多阶段随机抽样用于收集原始数据,logit模型用于数据分析。民用机械行业的永久性非致命伤害和纺织行业的临时性非致命损伤很常见。寻求医疗咨询的受伤工人在医疗支出中所占的份额仍然是其平均月收入的59%。平均月收入、父母职业、行业类型、工作保障、风险强度和工资基础是职业伤害的重要估计。根据社会人口和工作环境背景,不同行业工人职业伤害的性质和程度存在差异,这为政策含义提供了重要见解。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
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