International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion最新文献

Machine learning (ML) models are widely employed for crash severity modelling, yet their interpretability remains underexplored. Interpretation is crucial for comprehending ML results and aiding informed decision-making. This study aims to implement an interpretable ML to visualize the impacts of factors on crash severity using 5 years of freeways data from Iran. Methods including classification and regression trees (CART), K-nearest neighbours (KNNs), random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM) were applied, with RF demonstrating superior accuracy, recall, F1-score and ROC. The accumulated local effects (ALE) were utilized for interpretation. Findings suggest that light traffic conditions ($\text{volume}/\text{capacity}<0.5$) with critical values around 0.05 or 0.38, and higher proportion of large trucks and buses, particularly at 10% and 4%, are associated with severe crashes. Additionally, speeds exceeding 90 km/h, drivers younger than 30 years, rollover crashes, collisions with fixed objects and barriers, nighttime driving and driver fatigue elevate the likelihood of severe crashes.

This study examines the impact of urban form and street infrastructure on pedestrian safety in Atlanta, Georgia, and Boston, Massachusetts. With a significant rise in pedestrian fatalities over the past decade, understanding how cities' built environments influence safety is critical. We conducted geospatial analyses and statistical tests, revealing unique patterns in each city. Atlanta's sprawling, motorist-oriented layout is associated with increased pedestrian accidents, particularly at crosswalks, due to limited land use diversity, arterial roads, and streets with high speed limits and multiple lanes. In contrast, Boston's compact, pedestrian-oriented design leads to improved safety, featuring safer pedestrian crossings, greater land use diversity, reduced arterial roads and lower speed limits on single-lane streets. This study also highlights the importance of diverse urban forms and pedestrian infrastructure in shaping pedestrian safety. While population density and land use diversity impact accident rates, the presence of crosswalks and street configurations play crucial roles. Our findings underscore the urgency for urban planners to prioritize pedestrian safety through targeted interventions, such as enhancing crosswalks, reducing speed limits and promoting mixed land use. Future research should explore additional variables, alternative modelling techniques and non-linear approaches to gain a more comprehensive understanding of these complex relationships.

A well-developed road network plays a crucial role in fostering social and economic progress within a region. However, road crashes resulting in massive injuries and deaths profoundly affect socioeconomic development. There is a need therefore to identify working approaches used in road safety strategic management which provide evidence and a foundation to achieve safer road transport. This may be achieved through a systematic literature review considering both state-of-the-art technologies and best practice. Such a review is presented in this paper. The review involved searching twenty-six bibliographic databases and twenty-four websites of road-related organizations. Following the EPPI-Reviewer methodology, the researchers identified 30 studies that demonstrated various methods employed in the strategy development process. The review highlighted the prevalence of information technology in crash data analysis, particularly concerning big data applications. Moreover, existing resource allocation methods primarily focus on local countermeasures prioritization and ranking based on benefit cost analysis. However, the review identified a gap in comprehensive crash database understanding, and only a few single-objective optimization methods have been developed for strategy development, while there is a need for data mining methods and multi-objective optimisation methods supported by expert knowledge.

As the popularity of electric bicycles (e-bikes) continues to surge, the number of accidents involving them has commensurately increased. A significant factor contributing to the high fatality rate in these accidents is the low usage of helmets among e-bike riders. Helmets have been proven to reduce the severity of injuries, yet their usage remains unexpectedly low. This issue is particularly pronounced among college students, the primary buyer group for e-bikes. Regrettably, there is a lack of research exploring their intentions to wear helmets. Understanding determinants of their intentions to wear helmets is crucial in promoting safe e-bike travel. Therefore, the present study aims to develop an integrated theoretical model that combines the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Health Belief Model (HBM) to examine the factors influencing e-bike riders' helmet-wearing intentions among college students. Additionally, two variables-descriptive norms and law enforcement-are incorporated. The results indicate that the integrated model accounts for 76% of the variance in helmet-wearing intention, surpassing single-theory models. Specifically, the TPB accounts for 65%, while the HBM explains 53%. Notably, law enforcement emerges as the most influential factor, highlighting the crucial role of enforcing regulations and promoting awareness. Other significant factors include subjective and descriptive norms, attitudes, perceived benefits, perceived susceptibility, perceived barriers, and perceived severity. These findings provide valuable insights for policy development and targeted interventions aimed at improving helmet wear rates among e-bike riders, especially among the college student population.

This study aims to classify motorcycle (MC) following distance based on trajectory traffic data and identify the risks associated with MC following distances to prevent rear-end collisions. A total of 8,223 events of a MC following a vehicle were investigated in Pathum Thani, Thailand, and 41 cases of MC rear-end crashes were analyzed between 2017 and 2021. Time headway (TH), safe stopping distance (SSD) and time to collision (TTC) were applied to the proposed concept to determine safe following distance (SFD). Speed and following distance for actual rear-end crashes were applied to validate SFD. Results showed that the proposed SFD model identified the causes of MC rear-end collision events as mostly due to longitudinal critical area (38 cases, 92.68%), implying insufficient MC rider reaction and decision time for evasive action. The longitudinal warning area had relatively few chances for rear-end collisions to occur, with only 3 cases recorded. VDO clip extracts from MC rear-end crashes illustrated 11 cases (26.83%) of rider fatality. The study findings revealed that the SFD concept can help to prevent MC rear-end collision events by developing reminder systems when the rider reached the following distances of both warning and critical areas.

This study simultaneously modelled the injury severity of motorcycle riders and their pillion passengers and determine the associated risk factors. The analysis is based on motorcycle crashes data in Ashanti region of Ghana spanning from 2017 to 2019. The study implemented bivariate ordered probit model to identify the possible risk factors under the premise that the injury severity of pillion passenger is endogenously related to that of the rider in the event of crash. The model provides more efficient estimates by considered the common unobserved factors shared between rider and pillion passenger. The result shows a significant positive relationship between the two injury severities with a correlation coefficient of 0.63. Thus, the unobservable factors that increase the probability of the rider to sustain more severe injury in the event of crash also increase that of their corresponding pillion passenger. The rider and their pillion passenger injury severities have different propensity to some of the risk factors including passengers' gender, day of week, road width and light condition. In addition, the study found that time of day, weather condition, collision type, and number of vehicles involved in the crash jointly influence the injury severity of both rider and pillion passenger significantly.

Taxis play a crucial role in urban public transportation, but the traffic safety situation of taxi drivers is far from optimistic, especially considering the introduction of ride-hailing services into the taxi industry. This study conducted a comparative analysis of risk factors in crashes between traditional taxi drivers and ride-hailing taxi drivers in China, including their demographic characteristics, working conditions, and risky driving behaviors. The data was collected from 2,039 traditional taxi drivers and 2,182 ride-hailing taxi drivers via self-reported questionnaires. Four XGBoost models were established, taking into account different types of taxi drivers and crash types. All models showed acceptable performance, and SHAP explainer was used to analyze the model results. The results showed that for both taxi drivers, risk factors related to risky driving behaviors are more important in predicting property damage (PD) crashes, while risk factors related to working conditions are more important in predicting person injury (PI) crashes. However, the relative importance of each risk factor varied depending on the type of crashes and the type of taxi drivers involved. Furthermore, the results also validated certain interactions among the risk factors, indicating that the combination of certain factors generated a greater impact on crashes compared to individual factors alone. These findings can provide valuable insights for formulating appropriate measures to enhance road safety for taxi driver.

In-lane street hawking is the intermittent entry of signalized intersections by traders to sell groceries to drivers and passengers. Studies have shown that hawkers get exposed to traffic injuries but the lack of quantitative analysis of their lane entry and exit behaviors in signalized intersections makes it difficult to improve traffic safety. This study analyzes the significant predictors of in-lane street hawkers' (1) lane entry within 30 s after the red signal illumination, (2) lane exit within 30 s after the green signal illumination, and (3) probability of getting injuries during the green signal time. Drone-based trajectory data were collected from a selected signalized intersection in Accra, Ghana. A Weibull accelerated failure time duration model incorporating Gamma frailty was used to evaluate hawkers' behaviors. Overall, the majority of hawkers exhibited red-light running behaviors exposing them to traffic injuries. An increase in traffic speed, especially beyond 20 km/h, exposed hawkers to injury risks significantly. Notably, hawkers' lane entry decreased significantly as the traffic speed increased. Their lane exit duration was significantly predicted by the queue lengths and traffic volumes. Accordingly, safety practitioners can enhance traffic regulation and control methods in addition to pro-poor social interventions to demotivate hawking at signalized intersections.

Traffic violation is one of the leading causes of traffic crashes. In the context of global aging, it is important to study traffic violations by elderly drivers for improving traffic safety in preparation for a worldwide aging population. In this study, a hybrid approach of Latent Class Analysis (LCA) and XGBoost based SHAP is proposed to identify hidden clusters and to understand the key contributing factors on the severity of traffic violations by elderly drivers, based on the police-reported traffic violation dataset of Beijing (China). First, LCA is applied to segment the dataset into several latent homogeneous clusters, then XGBoost based SHAP is established on each cluster to identify feature contributions and the interaction effects of the key contributing factors on the severity of traffic violations by elderly drivers. Two comparison groups were set up to analyze factors, which are responsible for the different severities of traffic violations. The results show that elderly drivers can be classified into four groups by age, urban or not, license, and season; factors such as less annual number of traffic violations, national & provincial highway, night and winter are key contributing factors for higher severity of traffic violations, which are consistent with common cognition; key contributing factors for all clusters are similar but not identical, for example, more annual number of traffic violations contribute to more severe violation for all clusters except for Cluster 2; some factors which are not key contributing factors may affect the severity of traffic violations when they are combined with other factors, for example, the combination of lower annual number of traffic violations and county & township highway contributes to more severe violation for Cluster 1. These findings can help government to formulate targeted countermeasures to decrease the severity of traffic violations by specific elderly groups and improve road service for the driving population.