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Crime analysis and prediction using machine-learning approach in the case of Hossana Police Commission 利用机器学习方法对霍萨纳警察委员会的犯罪情况进行分析和预测
IF 1.2 0 LANGUAGE & LINGUISTICS Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1057/s41284-024-00416-6
Betelhem Zewdu Wubineh

Crime is a socioeconomic problem that affects the quality of life and economic growth of a country, and it continues to increase. Crime prevention and prediction are systematic approaches used to locate and analyze historical data to identify trends that can be employed in identifying crimes and criminals. The objective of this study is to predict the type of crime that occurred in the city and identify the important features that make this prediction using a machine learning technique. For this experimental investigation, a supervised learning method was used to classify the types of crimes based on the final labelled class that indicates which type of crime is committed. Thus, decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithms are utilized along with the Python programming language in the Jupyter notebook environment. A total of 1400 records and nine attributes were used, and the data were split into training and testing sets, with 80% allocated to training and 20% for testing. The decision tree achieved an accuracy score of 84%, followed by the random forest at 86.07% and K-nearest neighbor at 81%. Besides this, the job of the offender, the victim’s age, and the offender’s age are the important features that cause crime. Therefore, it can be concluded that the use of machine learning to analyze historical data and the random forest algorithm to classify crimes yields promising results in predicting the type of crime.

犯罪是一个社会经济问题,影响着一个国家的生活质量和经济增长,而且犯罪率还在持续上升。犯罪预防和预测是一种系统方法,用于查找和分析历史数据,以确定可用于识别犯罪和罪犯的趋势。本研究的目的是利用机器学习技术预测城市中发生的犯罪类型,并确定进行预测的重要特征。在这项实验调查中,我们使用了一种监督学习方法,根据最终标记的类别来对犯罪类型进行分类,该类别表明实施了哪种类型的犯罪。因此,在 Jupyter 笔记本环境中使用了决策树(DT)、随机森林(RF)和 K 近邻(KNN)算法以及 Python 编程语言。共使用了 1400 条记录和 9 个属性,数据被分成训练集和测试集,其中 80% 用于训练,20% 用于测试。结果表明,决策树的准确率为 84%,随机森林的准确率为 86.07%,K-近邻的准确率为 81%。除此以外,罪犯的职业、受害者的年龄和罪犯的年龄也是导致犯罪的重要特征。因此,可以得出结论,使用机器学习分析历史数据和随机森林算法对犯罪进行分类,在预测犯罪类型方面取得了可喜的成果。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the adoption of Enterprise Security Risk Management in Kenya’s higher education using the ASIS ESRM Maturity Model 利用 ASIS ESRM 成熟度模型衡量肯尼亚高等教育机构采用企业安全风险管理的情况
IF 1.2 0 LANGUAGE & LINGUISTICS Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.1057/s41284-024-00418-4
Levis Omusugu Amuya, Peterson Mwai Kariuki

Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM) is gaining popularity in industry circles, especially after the American Society of Industrial Security (ASIS International) elevated it as its strategic priority in 2016. However, research on its adoption has attracted little attention, especially in universities which are often characterized by outstanding variations in culture, structure, and more. In this paper, we conduct a self-assessment of ESRM maturity in Kenya’s accredited universities using process metrics of the 2019 ASIS ESRM Maturity Model and insights from university security executives. The findings reveal that more than 35% of accredited universities have achieved advanced levels of ESRM adoption, with over 57% at average or middle levels, predominantly at Level 3. Public accredited universities exhibit higher ESRM adoption levels compared to their private counterparts. The study also identifies variations in the terminology used, with 60% using “Security Risk Management (SRM),” 35% using “University Risk Management,” and a minority adopting ESRM. The discomfort with the “enterprise” term indicates a need for awareness and sensitization programs. We argue that benchmarking with optimized ESRM adopters and increasing awareness and integration of ESRM in strategic planning and institutional governance are crucial for comprehensive security risk management in higher education.

企业安全风险管理(ESRM)在业界越来越受欢迎,尤其是在美国工业安全协会(ASIS International)于 2016 年将其提升为战略重点之后。然而,对其采用情况的研究却鲜有人关注,尤其是在文化、结构等方面往往存在突出差异的大学中。在本文中,我们利用 2019 ASIS ESRM 成熟度模型的流程指标和大学安全管理人员的见解,对肯尼亚经认证的大学的 ESRM 成熟度进行了自我评估。研究结果显示,超过 35% 的经认证大学在采用 ESRM 方面达到了高级水平,超过 57% 的大学处于平均或中等水平,主要是第 3 级。与私立大学相比,公立大学的 ESRM 应用水平更高。研究还发现了所用术语的差异,其中 60% 使用 "安全风险管理 (SRM)",35% 使用 "大学风险管理",少数采用 ESRM。对 "企业 "一词的不习惯表明,需要开展提高认识和宣传计划。我们认为,与ESRM的最佳采用者建立基准,提高对ESRM的认识并将其纳入战略规划和机构管理,对于高等教育的全面安全风险管理至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Rethinking the US Global War on Terror in the Sahel (2001–2017) between deterrence and defeat of violent extremist groups 反思美国在萨赫勒地区的全球反恐战争(2001-2017 年)在威慑和击败暴力极端主义团体之间的关系
IF 1.2 0 LANGUAGE & LINGUISTICS Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00413-1
Abdellatif Djedei, Salim Kerboua

The protracted war against violent extremism provides plausible evidence about the ineffectiveness of purely militaristic approaches. The G-5 Sahel region witnessed an overall trend of mounting insecurity (2001–2017) despite a plethora of programs by multiple actors to defeat terrorism. Deterring rather than defeating terrorism gained momentum in the fourth wave of deterrence research. Contemporary Deterrence Theory (CDT) suggests a toolkit of punishment, denial and delegitimization to face asymmetric threats posed by violent non-state actors. The present article analyzes the US policy instruments and the upward pattern of terrorist attacks in the G5 Sahel states based on the data of global terrorism database (GTD). It also examines the concepts of ungoverned space and state fragility, which represent the bedrock of US intervention in the region. The study argues for a shift of US policy instruments in the Sahel from defeating to deterring terrorism based on the tenets of CDT. Much more attention should be diverted towards a nuanced approach that distinguishes between domestic and transnational extremist groups, and prioritizes robust homegrown delegitimization initiatives in conjunction with more inclusive political processes and socio-economic resilience programs.

打击暴力极端主义的持久战为纯粹军事手段的无效性提供了可信的证据。萨赫勒地区五国集团目睹了日益不安全的总体趋势(2001-2017 年),尽管多方行为体实施了大量计划来打击恐怖主义。威慑而非击败恐怖主义在第四波威慑研究浪潮中获得了发展势头。当代威慑理论(Contemporary Deterrence Theory,CDT)提出了一套惩罚、拒绝和去合法化的工具,以应对暴力非国家行为者构成的不对称威胁。本文基于全球恐怖主义数据库(GTD)的数据,分析了美国的政策工具和萨赫勒五国恐怖袭击的上升模式。文章还探讨了无人治理空间和国家脆弱性的概念,这两个概念是美国在该地区进行干预的基石。研究认为,美国在萨赫勒地区的政策工具应根据 CDT 的原则,从击败恐怖主义转向威慑恐怖主义。应将更多的注意力转移到区分国内和跨国极端主义团体的细致入微的方法上,并优先考虑强有力的本土去合法化举措,以及更具包容性的政治进程和社会经济恢复计划。
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引用次数: 0
Community-based vigilante violence and corporate social responsibility in Nigeria’s oil-producing region 尼日利亚产油区基于社区的私刑暴力与企业社会责任
IF 1.2 0 LANGUAGE & LINGUISTICS Pub Date : 2024-02-04 DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00415-z

Abstract

The region of Nigeria that produces oil is experiencing a surge in community-based vigilante violence, potentially escalating conflict dynamics and increasing fear of injury. The reason it matters is that neighborhood vigilante groups are more likely to participate in criminal, political, and ethnic plotting and are not always controllable. This prompted us to look into whether GMoU cluster interventions by MOCs could lower the heat map of fatalities from vigilante insurgency in the Niger Delta of Nigeria. The results of logit regression and propensity score matching demonstrate that the MOCs' limited CSR efforts to protect the area have been successful in creating, formalizing, equipping, and managing vigilante groups. The results also show that the CSR initiatives have reduced vigilante violence within and between host communities, as well as violence against their residents. This implies that raising awareness of CSR with the goal of strengthening vigilante control will strengthen the local security apparatus, discourage resurgence in the various rural areas, safeguard the workers and equipment of oil firms, and provide a favorable business environment in the area.

摘要 尼日利亚产油地区的社区民团暴力事件激增,有可能使冲突动态升级,增加人们对伤害的恐惧。之所以如此,是因为社区民团更有可能参与犯罪、政治和种族阴谋,而且并不总是可控的。这就促使我们研究由社区行动中心进行的全球监测、分析和报告(GMoU)群组干预是否能够降低尼日利亚尼日尔三角洲地区因民团叛乱而造成的死亡热图。对数回归和倾向得分匹配的结果表明,政府间海洋学委员会为保护该地区所做的有限的企业社会责任努力成功地创建、正规化、装备和管理了民团。结果还表明,企业社会责任举措减少了东道主社区内部和社区之间的私刑暴力,也减少了针对其居民的暴力。这意味着,提高对企业社会责任的认识,以加强对民团的控制为目标,将加强当地的安全机构,阻止各农村地区的民团死灰复燃,保护石油公司的工人和设备,并为该地区提供有利的商业环境。
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引用次数: 0
Fraudsters target the elderly: Behavioural evidence from randomised controlled scam-baiting experiments 欺诈者以老年人为目标:来自随机对照诱骗实验的行为证据
IF 1.2 0 LANGUAGE & LINGUISTICS Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00410-4
Jemima Robinson, Matthew Edwards

Email-based fraud is a lucrative market for cybercriminals to scam a wide range of potential victims. Yet there is a sometimes conflicted literature on who these victims are, complicated by low and possibly confounded reporting rates. We make use of an experimental automated scam-baiting platform to test hypotheses about the characteristics online fraudsters find more attractive, gathering behavioural evidence directly from the fraudsters themselves (n = 296). In our comparison of four instrumented ‘personalities’ designed based on traits highlighted in the literature and in a small public perception survey, we find that a script adopting the personality of an elderly woman attracts significantly more engagement from scammers than our control measure. We discuss our approach and the possible interpretations and implications of our findings.

对于网络犯罪分子来说,基于电子邮件的欺诈是一个利润丰厚的市场,可以骗取广泛的潜在受害者。然而,关于这些受害者是谁,有时存在相互矛盾的文献,而低报案率和可能的混淆又使情况变得复杂。我们利用一个实验性的自动诈骗诱饵平台,直接从诈骗者本人(n = 296)那里收集行为证据,来检验关于网络诈骗者认为哪些特征更具吸引力的假设。我们比较了根据文献和小型公众认知调查中强调的特征设计的四种工具化 "个性",发现采用老年妇女个性的脚本比对照措施更能吸引骗子的参与。我们将讨论我们的方法以及我们的发现可能带来的解释和影响。
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引用次数: 0
Terrorism, democracy and human security: a communication model. Ronald Crelinsten. 2021. Abingdon, Routledge, ISBN 978-036786089-9 恐怖主义、民主与人类安全:一种交流模式。Ronald Crelinsten.2021.Abingdon, Routledge, ISBN 978-036786089-9
IF 1.2 0 LANGUAGE & LINGUISTICS Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00409-x
Maximiliano E. Korstanje
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引用次数: 0
Was there a better time to be a mother? Past and present times of socio-cultural fear of crime in Turkiye 曾有过做母亲的美好时光吗?土耳其过去和现在对犯罪的社会文化恐惧
IF 1.2 0 LANGUAGE & LINGUISTICS Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00406-0
Hicran Karataş

Fear of crime refers to the fear of being a victim of crime, and it is nurtured by folklore and the media. Folklore fosters fear of crime using oral tradition transferred throughout generations by updating old contexts into modern times. On the other hand, the media visualizes the possibility of being a victim by introducing the real-life experiences of victims. Contrary to folklore, victims presented in the media seem more accessible, and the victimization of individuals may be proven. Folklore and the media have cooperated to keep the fear of crime alive to warn society that individual lives are on the verge of becoming victims of criminals. In this paper, I aim to describe the fear of crime through two particular crimes: Child abductions and organ thefts. Data for this research comes from two sets of materials: Newspaper news stories and semi-structured interviews conducted in face-to-face settings with mothers from two different generations. My research reveals that mothers of the eighties were scared of their children being victims of beggar gangs and organ trade criminals, while millennial mothers suffer from the possibility of their children being victims of online grooming and sextortion.

对犯罪的恐惧是指害怕成为犯罪的受害者,这种恐惧是由民间传说和媒体培养出来的。民间传说利用世代相传的口头传统,将古老的语境更新到现代,从而培养人们对犯罪的恐惧。另一方面,媒体通过介绍受害者的真实经历,将成为受害者的可能性形象化。与民间传说相反,媒体介绍的受害者似乎更容易接近,个人的受害情况也可能得到证实。民间传说和媒体相互配合,使人们对犯罪的恐惧持续存在,以警示社会,个人的生命即将成为罪犯的牺牲品。在本文中,我旨在通过两种特殊的犯罪来描述对犯罪的恐惧:儿童绑架和器官盗窃。本研究的数据来自两组材料:报纸新闻报道和与两代母亲面对面进行的半结构化访谈。我的研究显示,八十年代的母亲害怕自己的孩子成为乞丐团伙和器官交易罪犯的受害者,而千禧一代的母亲则担心自己的孩子可能成为网络诱拐和色情交易的受害者。
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引用次数: 0
Do cybercrime laws address emergent IoT security threats? The case of UAE federal cybercrime law regarding RFID technology 网络犯罪法能否应对新出现的物联网安全威胁?阿联酋有关 RFID 技术的联邦网络犯罪法案例
IF 1.2 0 LANGUAGE & LINGUISTICS Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00408-y
Sami Miniaoui, Sudad Muammar, Nasiruddeen Muhammad, Nasser Al Muraqab, Shadi Atalla

With the widespread use of radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology as a means for commerce and identification, new types of cybercrime have emerged. Accordingly, revisions to extant cybercrime law are required. This research attempts to determine the relevance of current UAE laws in addressing new cybercrimes on emergent technologies. We reviewed the literature to identify threats to RFID systems, classifying works into three categories: blocking, interception, and physical attacks. We mapped these categories to 50 articles of the UAE cybercrime law to assess their relevance. According to the distribution of law articles pertaining to RFID attacks, it was found that RFID communication interception attacks are not sufficiently addressed in the law and that further amendments are required in the UAE. Example of international statutes are highlighted as models.

随着射频识别(RFID)技术作为商业和身份识别手段的广泛使用,出现了新型网络犯罪。因此,需要对现有的网络犯罪法进行修订。本研究试图确定阿联酋现行法律在应对新兴技术上的新型网络犯罪方面的相关性。我们查阅了相关文献,以确定 RFID 系统面临的威胁,并将作品分为三类:拦截、截获和物理攻击。我们将这些类别与阿联酋网络犯罪法的 50 个条款相对应,以评估其相关性。根据与射频识别(RFID)攻击有关的法律条文的分布情况,我们发现法律对射频识别(RFID)通信拦截攻击的处理不够充分,阿联酋需要进一步修订。国际法规的范例得到了强调。
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引用次数: 0
Tourism safety on train systems: A case study on electronic word-of-mouth in Spain, Italy and Greece 火车系统的旅游安全:以西班牙、意大利和希腊的电子口碑为例
IF 1.2 0 LANGUAGE & LINGUISTICS Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00405-1
Chin-Han Lin, Jordi Arcos-Pumarola, Nayra Llonch-Molina

The risks that tourists perceive during their travels are relevant for their travel experience. Thus, safety has become one of the most important issues not only for travellers, but also for the tourism industry and all its related stakeholders. The reason for safety being prioritised is that tourists share their experiences online, thus forming tourism electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM), which has a definite impact on the tourism destination image (TDI) and influencing future tourists. Therefore, it is relevant to analyse travel reviews to explore, identify and tackle the problems of tourism destination. This paper focuses on analysing the online travel reviews related to the safety issues within the rail systems of three specific destinations. For many visitors, the train network is the first point of contact for tourists with the destinations and have a significant impact on their experience. The content analysis of online travel reviews aims to reveal the factors that influence tourism safety perception, allowing some specific recommendations for destination management organisations to improve tourists’ experience and the projected image of destination in terms of safety.

游客在旅行中感受到的风险与他们的旅行体验息息相关。因此,安全已成为最重要的问题之一,不仅对游客,而且对旅游业及其所有相关利益相关者。优先考虑安全的原因是游客在网上分享他们的体验,从而形成旅游电子口碑(e口碑),这对旅游目的地形象(TDI)有一定的影响,并影响未来的游客。因此,分析旅游评论对于探索、识别和解决旅游目的地的问题具有重要意义。本文着重分析了与三个特定目的地的铁路系统安全问题相关的在线旅游评论。对于许多游客来说,火车网络是游客与目的地的第一个接触点,对他们的体验有重大影响。在线旅游评论的内容分析旨在揭示影响旅游安全感知的因素,为目的地管理组织提供一些具体的建议,以改善游客的体验和目的地在安全方面的形象。
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引用次数: 0
Population distribution and terrorist attack preference: evidence from Xinjiang, China 人口分布与恐怖袭击偏好:来自中国新疆的证据
IF 1.2 0 LANGUAGE & LINGUISTICS Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00407-z
Zhigao Hu, Yuqi Hu, Dandan Wang
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引用次数: 0
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