Pub Date : 2024-03-01DOI: 10.1057/s41284-024-00416-6
Betelhem Zewdu Wubineh
Crime is a socioeconomic problem that affects the quality of life and economic growth of a country, and it continues to increase. Crime prevention and prediction are systematic approaches used to locate and analyze historical data to identify trends that can be employed in identifying crimes and criminals. The objective of this study is to predict the type of crime that occurred in the city and identify the important features that make this prediction using a machine learning technique. For this experimental investigation, a supervised learning method was used to classify the types of crimes based on the final labelled class that indicates which type of crime is committed. Thus, decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithms are utilized along with the Python programming language in the Jupyter notebook environment. A total of 1400 records and nine attributes were used, and the data were split into training and testing sets, with 80% allocated to training and 20% for testing. The decision tree achieved an accuracy score of 84%, followed by the random forest at 86.07% and K-nearest neighbor at 81%. Besides this, the job of the offender, the victim’s age, and the offender’s age are the important features that cause crime. Therefore, it can be concluded that the use of machine learning to analyze historical data and the random forest algorithm to classify crimes yields promising results in predicting the type of crime.
{"title":"Crime analysis and prediction using machine-learning approach in the case of Hossana Police Commission","authors":"Betelhem Zewdu Wubineh","doi":"10.1057/s41284-024-00416-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-024-00416-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Crime is a socioeconomic problem that affects the quality of life and economic growth of a country, and it continues to increase. Crime prevention and prediction are systematic approaches used to locate and analyze historical data to identify trends that can be employed in identifying crimes and criminals. The objective of this study is to predict the type of crime that occurred in the city and identify the important features that make this prediction using a machine learning technique. For this experimental investigation, a supervised learning method was used to classify the types of crimes based on the final labelled class that indicates which type of crime is committed. Thus, decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithms are utilized along with the Python programming language in the Jupyter notebook environment. A total of 1400 records and nine attributes were used, and the data were split into training and testing sets, with 80% allocated to training and 20% for testing. The decision tree achieved an accuracy score of 84%, followed by the random forest at 86.07% and K-nearest neighbor at 81%. Besides this, the job of the offender, the victim’s age, and the offender’s age are the important features that cause crime. Therefore, it can be concluded that the use of machine learning to analyze historical data and the random forest algorithm to classify crimes yields promising results in predicting the type of crime.</p>","PeriodicalId":47023,"journal":{"name":"Security Journal","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140019403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-20DOI: 10.1057/s41284-024-00418-4
Levis Omusugu Amuya, Peterson Mwai Kariuki
Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM) is gaining popularity in industry circles, especially after the American Society of Industrial Security (ASIS International) elevated it as its strategic priority in 2016. However, research on its adoption has attracted little attention, especially in universities which are often characterized by outstanding variations in culture, structure, and more. In this paper, we conduct a self-assessment of ESRM maturity in Kenya’s accredited universities using process metrics of the 2019 ASIS ESRM Maturity Model and insights from university security executives. The findings reveal that more than 35% of accredited universities have achieved advanced levels of ESRM adoption, with over 57% at average or middle levels, predominantly at Level 3. Public accredited universities exhibit higher ESRM adoption levels compared to their private counterparts. The study also identifies variations in the terminology used, with 60% using “Security Risk Management (SRM),” 35% using “University Risk Management,” and a minority adopting ESRM. The discomfort with the “enterprise” term indicates a need for awareness and sensitization programs. We argue that benchmarking with optimized ESRM adopters and increasing awareness and integration of ESRM in strategic planning and institutional governance are crucial for comprehensive security risk management in higher education.
{"title":"Measuring the adoption of Enterprise Security Risk Management in Kenya’s higher education using the ASIS ESRM Maturity Model","authors":"Levis Omusugu Amuya, Peterson Mwai Kariuki","doi":"10.1057/s41284-024-00418-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-024-00418-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM) is gaining popularity in industry circles, especially after the American Society of Industrial Security (ASIS International) elevated it as its strategic priority in 2016. However, research on its adoption has attracted little attention, especially in universities which are often characterized by outstanding variations in culture, structure, and more. In this paper, we conduct a self-assessment of ESRM maturity in Kenya’s accredited universities using process metrics of the 2019 ASIS ESRM Maturity Model and insights from university security executives. The findings reveal that more than 35% of accredited universities have achieved advanced levels of ESRM adoption, with over 57% at average or middle levels, predominantly at Level 3. Public accredited universities exhibit higher ESRM adoption levels compared to their private counterparts. The study also identifies variations in the terminology used, with 60% using “Security Risk Management (SRM),” 35% using “University Risk Management,” and a minority adopting ESRM. The discomfort with the “enterprise” term indicates a need for awareness and sensitization programs. We argue that benchmarking with optimized ESRM adopters and increasing awareness and integration of ESRM in strategic planning and institutional governance are crucial for comprehensive security risk management in higher education.</p>","PeriodicalId":47023,"journal":{"name":"Security Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139926417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-12DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00413-1
Abdellatif Djedei, Salim Kerboua
The protracted war against violent extremism provides plausible evidence about the ineffectiveness of purely militaristic approaches. The G-5 Sahel region witnessed an overall trend of mounting insecurity (2001–2017) despite a plethora of programs by multiple actors to defeat terrorism. Deterring rather than defeating terrorism gained momentum in the fourth wave of deterrence research. Contemporary Deterrence Theory (CDT) suggests a toolkit of punishment, denial and delegitimization to face asymmetric threats posed by violent non-state actors. The present article analyzes the US policy instruments and the upward pattern of terrorist attacks in the G5 Sahel states based on the data of global terrorism database (GTD). It also examines the concepts of ungoverned space and state fragility, which represent the bedrock of US intervention in the region. The study argues for a shift of US policy instruments in the Sahel from defeating to deterring terrorism based on the tenets of CDT. Much more attention should be diverted towards a nuanced approach that distinguishes between domestic and transnational extremist groups, and prioritizes robust homegrown delegitimization initiatives in conjunction with more inclusive political processes and socio-economic resilience programs.
{"title":"Rethinking the US Global War on Terror in the Sahel (2001–2017) between deterrence and defeat of violent extremist groups","authors":"Abdellatif Djedei, Salim Kerboua","doi":"10.1057/s41284-023-00413-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-023-00413-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The protracted war against violent extremism provides plausible evidence about the ineffectiveness of purely militaristic approaches. The G-5 Sahel region witnessed an overall trend of mounting insecurity (2001–2017) despite a plethora of programs by multiple actors to defeat terrorism. Deterring rather than defeating terrorism gained momentum in the fourth wave of deterrence research. Contemporary Deterrence Theory (CDT) suggests a toolkit of punishment, denial and delegitimization to face asymmetric threats posed by violent non-state actors. The present article analyzes the US policy instruments and the upward pattern of terrorist attacks in the G5 Sahel states based on the data of global terrorism database (GTD). It also examines the concepts of ungoverned space and state fragility, which represent the bedrock of US intervention in the region. The study argues for a shift of US policy instruments in the Sahel from defeating to deterring terrorism based on the tenets of CDT. Much more attention should be diverted towards a nuanced approach that distinguishes between domestic and transnational extremist groups, and prioritizes robust homegrown delegitimization initiatives in conjunction with more inclusive political processes and socio-economic resilience programs.</p>","PeriodicalId":47023,"journal":{"name":"Security Journal","volume":"313 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139766052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-04DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00415-z
Abstract
The region of Nigeria that produces oil is experiencing a surge in community-based vigilante violence, potentially escalating conflict dynamics and increasing fear of injury. The reason it matters is that neighborhood vigilante groups are more likely to participate in criminal, political, and ethnic plotting and are not always controllable. This prompted us to look into whether GMoU cluster interventions by MOCs could lower the heat map of fatalities from vigilante insurgency in the Niger Delta of Nigeria. The results of logit regression and propensity score matching demonstrate that the MOCs' limited CSR efforts to protect the area have been successful in creating, formalizing, equipping, and managing vigilante groups. The results also show that the CSR initiatives have reduced vigilante violence within and between host communities, as well as violence against their residents. This implies that raising awareness of CSR with the goal of strengthening vigilante control will strengthen the local security apparatus, discourage resurgence in the various rural areas, safeguard the workers and equipment of oil firms, and provide a favorable business environment in the area.
{"title":"Community-based vigilante violence and corporate social responsibility in Nigeria’s oil-producing region","authors":"","doi":"10.1057/s41284-023-00415-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-023-00415-z","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>The region of Nigeria that produces oil is experiencing a surge in community-based vigilante violence, potentially escalating conflict dynamics and increasing fear of injury. The reason it matters is that neighborhood vigilante groups are more likely to participate in criminal, political, and ethnic plotting and are not always controllable. This prompted us to look into whether GMoU cluster interventions by MOCs could lower the heat map of fatalities from vigilante insurgency in the Niger Delta of Nigeria. The results of logit regression and propensity score matching demonstrate that the MOCs' limited CSR efforts to protect the area have been successful in creating, formalizing, equipping, and managing vigilante groups. The results also show that the CSR initiatives have reduced vigilante violence within and between host communities, as well as violence against their residents. This implies that raising awareness of CSR with the goal of strengthening vigilante control will strengthen the local security apparatus, discourage resurgence in the various rural areas, safeguard the workers and equipment of oil firms, and provide a favorable business environment in the area.</p>","PeriodicalId":47023,"journal":{"name":"Security Journal","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139765940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-18DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00410-4
Jemima Robinson, Matthew Edwards
Email-based fraud is a lucrative market for cybercriminals to scam a wide range of potential victims. Yet there is a sometimes conflicted literature on who these victims are, complicated by low and possibly confounded reporting rates. We make use of an experimental automated scam-baiting platform to test hypotheses about the characteristics online fraudsters find more attractive, gathering behavioural evidence directly from the fraudsters themselves (n = 296). In our comparison of four instrumented ‘personalities’ designed based on traits highlighted in the literature and in a small public perception survey, we find that a script adopting the personality of an elderly woman attracts significantly more engagement from scammers than our control measure. We discuss our approach and the possible interpretations and implications of our findings.
{"title":"Fraudsters target the elderly: Behavioural evidence from randomised controlled scam-baiting experiments","authors":"Jemima Robinson, Matthew Edwards","doi":"10.1057/s41284-023-00410-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-023-00410-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Email-based fraud is a lucrative market for cybercriminals to scam a wide range of potential victims. Yet there is a sometimes conflicted literature on who these victims are, complicated by low and possibly confounded reporting rates. We make use of an experimental automated scam-baiting platform to test hypotheses about the characteristics online fraudsters find more attractive, gathering behavioural evidence directly from the fraudsters themselves (<i>n</i> = 296). In our comparison of four instrumented ‘personalities’ designed based on traits highlighted in the literature and in a small public perception survey, we find that a script adopting the personality of an elderly woman attracts significantly more engagement from scammers than our control measure. We discuss our approach and the possible interpretations and implications of our findings.</p>","PeriodicalId":47023,"journal":{"name":"Security Journal","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139500076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-28DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00409-x
Maximiliano E. Korstanje
{"title":"Terrorism, democracy and human security: a communication model. Ronald Crelinsten. 2021. Abingdon, Routledge, ISBN 978-036786089-9","authors":"Maximiliano E. Korstanje","doi":"10.1057/s41284-023-00409-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-023-00409-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47023,"journal":{"name":"Security Journal","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139151868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-11DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00406-0
Hicran Karataş
Fear of crime refers to the fear of being a victim of crime, and it is nurtured by folklore and the media. Folklore fosters fear of crime using oral tradition transferred throughout generations by updating old contexts into modern times. On the other hand, the media visualizes the possibility of being a victim by introducing the real-life experiences of victims. Contrary to folklore, victims presented in the media seem more accessible, and the victimization of individuals may be proven. Folklore and the media have cooperated to keep the fear of crime alive to warn society that individual lives are on the verge of becoming victims of criminals. In this paper, I aim to describe the fear of crime through two particular crimes: Child abductions and organ thefts. Data for this research comes from two sets of materials: Newspaper news stories and semi-structured interviews conducted in face-to-face settings with mothers from two different generations. My research reveals that mothers of the eighties were scared of their children being victims of beggar gangs and organ trade criminals, while millennial mothers suffer from the possibility of their children being victims of online grooming and sextortion.
{"title":"Was there a better time to be a mother? Past and present times of socio-cultural fear of crime in Turkiye","authors":"Hicran Karataş","doi":"10.1057/s41284-023-00406-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-023-00406-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Fear of crime refers to the fear of being a victim of crime, and it is nurtured by folklore and the media. Folklore fosters fear of crime using oral tradition transferred throughout generations by updating old contexts into modern times. On the other hand, the media visualizes the possibility of being a victim by introducing the real-life experiences of victims. Contrary to folklore, victims presented in the media seem more accessible, and the victimization of individuals may be proven. Folklore and the media have cooperated to keep the fear of crime alive to warn society that individual lives are on the verge of becoming victims of criminals. In this paper, I aim to describe the fear of crime through two particular crimes: Child abductions and organ thefts. Data for this research comes from two sets of materials: Newspaper news stories and semi-structured interviews conducted in face-to-face settings with mothers from two different generations. My research reveals that mothers of the eighties were scared of their children being victims of beggar gangs and organ trade criminals, while millennial mothers suffer from the possibility of their children being victims of online grooming and sextortion.</p>","PeriodicalId":47023,"journal":{"name":"Security Journal","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138574712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-08DOI: 10.1057/s41284-023-00408-y
Sami Miniaoui, Sudad Muammar, Nasiruddeen Muhammad, Nasser Al Muraqab, Shadi Atalla
With the widespread use of radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology as a means for commerce and identification, new types of cybercrime have emerged. Accordingly, revisions to extant cybercrime law are required. This research attempts to determine the relevance of current UAE laws in addressing new cybercrimes on emergent technologies. We reviewed the literature to identify threats to RFID systems, classifying works into three categories: blocking, interception, and physical attacks. We mapped these categories to 50 articles of the UAE cybercrime law to assess their relevance. According to the distribution of law articles pertaining to RFID attacks, it was found that RFID communication interception attacks are not sufficiently addressed in the law and that further amendments are required in the UAE. Example of international statutes are highlighted as models.
随着射频识别(RFID)技术作为商业和身份识别手段的广泛使用,出现了新型网络犯罪。因此,需要对现有的网络犯罪法进行修订。本研究试图确定阿联酋现行法律在应对新兴技术上的新型网络犯罪方面的相关性。我们查阅了相关文献,以确定 RFID 系统面临的威胁,并将作品分为三类:拦截、截获和物理攻击。我们将这些类别与阿联酋网络犯罪法的 50 个条款相对应,以评估其相关性。根据与射频识别(RFID)攻击有关的法律条文的分布情况,我们发现法律对射频识别(RFID)通信拦截攻击的处理不够充分,阿联酋需要进一步修订。国际法规的范例得到了强调。
{"title":"Do cybercrime laws address emergent IoT security threats? The case of UAE federal cybercrime law regarding RFID technology","authors":"Sami Miniaoui, Sudad Muammar, Nasiruddeen Muhammad, Nasser Al Muraqab, Shadi Atalla","doi":"10.1057/s41284-023-00408-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-023-00408-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With the widespread use of radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology as a means for commerce and identification, new types of cybercrime have emerged. Accordingly, revisions to extant cybercrime law are required. This research attempts to determine the relevance of current UAE laws in addressing new cybercrimes on emergent technologies. We reviewed the literature to identify threats to RFID systems, classifying works into three categories: blocking, interception, and physical attacks. We mapped these categories to 50 articles of the UAE cybercrime law to assess their relevance. According to the distribution of law articles pertaining to RFID attacks, it was found that RFID communication interception attacks are not sufficiently addressed in the law and that further amendments are required in the UAE. Example of international statutes are highlighted as models.</p>","PeriodicalId":47023,"journal":{"name":"Security Journal","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138559818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The risks that tourists perceive during their travels are relevant for their travel experience. Thus, safety has become one of the most important issues not only for travellers, but also for the tourism industry and all its related stakeholders. The reason for safety being prioritised is that tourists share their experiences online, thus forming tourism electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM), which has a definite impact on the tourism destination image (TDI) and influencing future tourists. Therefore, it is relevant to analyse travel reviews to explore, identify and tackle the problems of tourism destination. This paper focuses on analysing the online travel reviews related to the safety issues within the rail systems of three specific destinations. For many visitors, the train network is the first point of contact for tourists with the destinations and have a significant impact on their experience. The content analysis of online travel reviews aims to reveal the factors that influence tourism safety perception, allowing some specific recommendations for destination management organisations to improve tourists’ experience and the projected image of destination in terms of safety.
{"title":"Tourism safety on train systems: A case study on electronic word-of-mouth in Spain, Italy and Greece","authors":"Chin-Han Lin, Jordi Arcos-Pumarola, Nayra Llonch-Molina","doi":"10.1057/s41284-023-00405-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-023-00405-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The risks that tourists perceive during their travels are relevant for their travel experience. Thus, safety has become one of the most important issues not only for travellers, but also for the tourism industry and all its related stakeholders. The reason for safety being prioritised is that tourists share their experiences online, thus forming tourism electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM), which has a definite impact on the tourism destination image (TDI) and influencing future tourists. Therefore, it is relevant to analyse travel reviews to explore, identify and tackle the problems of tourism destination. This paper focuses on analysing the online travel reviews related to the safety issues within the rail systems of three specific destinations. For many visitors, the train network is the first point of contact for tourists with the destinations and have a significant impact on their experience. The content analysis of online travel reviews aims to reveal the factors that influence tourism safety perception, allowing some specific recommendations for destination management organisations to improve tourists’ experience and the projected image of destination in terms of safety.</p>","PeriodicalId":47023,"journal":{"name":"Security Journal","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138518000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}