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Fiscal Space and the Supply of Pro-Government Militias 财政空间与亲政府民兵的供应
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70007
M. Christian Lehmann

Militias hamper state-building by undermining the government's monopoly of violence, which creates an environment of anarchy. Yet many governments collaborate with them. These pro-government militias (PGMs), such as paramilitary groups, are not only a poor-country phenomenon, that is, economic growth does not seem to eradicate these armed nonstate actors: Intriguingly, cross-country data reveals a U-shaped relationship between GDP per capita and PGM presence. This article presents an economic theory of PGM supply that can explain this puzzling relationship and provide actionable ways for international actors (e.g., UN) to discourage the emergence of PGMs. However, the theory also cautions that some common international policies (e.g., development aid) may unintentionally encourage PGM supply.

民兵破坏政府对暴力的垄断,造成无政府状态,从而阻碍国家建设。然而,许多政府却与他们合作。这些亲政府民兵(PGMs),如准军事团体,不仅是穷国的现象,也就是说,经济增长似乎并不能根除这些非国家武装行为体:耐人寻味的是,跨国数据揭示了人均国内生产总值与准军事团体存在之间的 U 型关系。本文提出了一种有关 PGM 供应的经济理论,可以解释这种令人费解的关系,并为国际行动者(如联合国)提供阻止 PGM 出现的可行方法。不过,该理论也提醒说,一些常见的国际政策(如发展援助)可能会无意中鼓励潜在金属的供应。
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引用次数: 0
Transmissible diseases, vaccination, and inequality 传染病、疫苗接种与不平等
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70002
Carmen Camacho, Chrysovalantis Vasilakis

We construct a Susceptible–Infected–Vaccinated Economic two-sector growth model to explore the dynamics of inequality in an economy with distinct groups of workers exposed to a transmissible disease. Our analysis reveals a spectrum of outcomes in the long term, ranging from a disease-free economic environment to a scenario where only the most susceptible group suffers from the disease. Long-term outcomes are influenced by the reproduction rates both of the overall economy and those of the two groups of workers. If one group remains infected over time, the other will surely follow, leading to a perpetual disease burden for both. Additionally, because long-term equilibria may not be unique, there is a possibility of long-term uncertainty, posing additional challenges for policymakers. Notably, our calibrated model suggests that if the vaccination rate exceeds 24%, the relationship between disease exposure and inequality in capital assets becomes nonmonotonic.

我们构建了一个 "易感者-感染者-疫苗接种者 "经济双部门增长模型,以探讨在一个有不同工人群体暴露于可传播疾病的经济中,不平等的动态变化。我们的分析揭示了一系列长期结果,从无疾病的经济环境到只有最易感群体遭受疾病折磨的情景。长期结果受整体经济和两组工人的繁殖率的影响。如果一个群体长期受到感染,另一个群体也必然会受到感染,从而导致两个群体都长期承受疾病负担。此外,由于长期均衡可能不是唯一的,因此可能存在长期不确定性,这给政策制定者带来了更多挑战。值得注意的是,我们的校准模型表明,如果疫苗接种率超过 24%,疾病暴露与资本资产不平等之间的关系就会变得非单调。
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引用次数: 0
Political Accountability and the Distortion of Law Enforcement 政治问责与执法扭曲
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70000
Yohei Yamaguchi, Ken Yahagi

Citizens may derive personal benefits from new technologies while remaining uncertain about their potential social harm. Consequently, citizens may delegate the decision of legal prohibition to politicians, but conflicts can arise because politicians may have self-interested motivations. How does the interaction of uncertainty regarding social harm and politicians' incentives affect the legal prohibition of new technologies? To answer this question, we develop a two-period political agency model combined with a law enforcement model in which citizens endogenously determine whether to become law-breaking or law-abiding citizens. We then demonstrate that (i) when uncertainty regarding social harm is low, politicians tend to opt for under-enforcement, while (ii) when uncertainty is high, politicians are inclined toward over-enforcement. Additionally, we show that as politicians have greater motivation to hold office, expected welfare is enhanced when future uncertainty about harm exceeds current uncertainty although this may result in distorted law enforcement.

公民可能会从新技术中获得个人利益,同时又不确定其潜在的社会危害。因此,公民可能会将法律禁止的决定权委托给政治家,但由于政治家可能会有自利动机,因此可能会产生冲突。社会危害的不确定性与政治家的动机之间的相互作用如何影响对新技术的法律禁止?为了回答这个问题,我们建立了一个两期政治代理模型和一个执法模型,在这个模型中,公民内生地决定是成为违法公民还是守法公民。然后我们证明:(i) 当社会危害的不确定性较低时,政治家倾向于选择执法不足,而 (ii) 当不确定性较高时,政治家倾向于过度执法。此外,我们还证明,由于政治家有更大的任职动机,当未来危害的不确定性超过当前的不确定性时,预期福利就会提高,尽管这可能会导致执法失真。
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引用次数: 0
Carrots and Sticks: Collaboration of Taxation and Subsidies in Contests 胡萝卜与大棒:竞赛中税收与补贴的合作
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70005
Yizhaq Minchuk, Aner Sela

We study all-pay auctions under incomplete information in which the designer can impose taxes or subsidies, and his expected payoff is the contestants' expected total effort minus the cost of subsidies, or, alternatively, plus the tax payment. When contestants have linear effort cost functions, we show that taxing the winner's payoff is profitable for the contest designer, and particularly more profitable than the same model with no taxation or the same model with contestants' effort taxation. When the contestants' effort cost functions are convex and the taxation rate is relatively low, we show that the designer should tax the winner's payoff while subsidizing all of the other contestants' effort costs. As a result, contest organizers should think about combining taxation and subsidies in their contests because they complement rather than substitute each other.

我们研究了不完全信息下的全酬拍卖,在这种拍卖中,设计者可以征税或提供补贴,他的预期报酬是参赛者的预期总努力减去补贴成本,或者加上税款。当参赛者的努力成本函数为线性时,我们的研究表明,对获胜者的报酬征税对竞赛设计者有利可图,尤其是比不征税的同一模型或对参赛者的努力征税的同一模型更有利可图。当参赛者的努力成本函数是凸函数且税率相对较低时,我们发现设计者应该对获胜者的报酬征税,同时补贴其他参赛者的努力成本。因此,竞赛组织者应该考虑在竞赛中将征税和补贴结合起来,因为它们是互补的,而不是相互替代的。
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引用次数: 0
Mergers and Licensing With Horizontal Differentiation 横向差异化的兼并与许可
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70004
Ramon Fauli-Oller, Sougata Poddar, Joel Sandonis

We consider a research laboratory that owns a patented process innovation and two firms producing differentiating goods in a Bertrand setting. The laboratory considers the possibility to license the innovation as an outsider patentee or to merge with one of the firms in the industry, becoming an incumbent patentee. Licensing takes place through observable two-part tariff contracts. We show that the merger is profitable only for small innovations and increases social welfare for both small and large innovations. Even though we allow the royalty to be higher than the size of the innovation, and opposite to the result in a Cournot setting, we find a region where the merger is both profitable and welfare improving. This occurs only for small innovations and sufficiently differentiated goods. The same result arises for consumer surplus which allows us to derive the optimal merger policy: compared with Cournot competition, a Bertrand setting calls for a more lenient merger policy.

我们考虑了一个拥有专利工艺创新的研究实验室和两家在伯特兰环境下生产差异化产品的公司。该实验室考虑的可能性是作为外部专利权人许可创新,或者与行业中的一家公司合并,成为在位专利权人。许可通过可观察的两部分关税合同进行。我们的研究表明,合并只对小创新有利可图,而对大创新和小创新都会增加社会福利。尽管我们允许专利使用费高于创新的规模,但与库诺背景下的结果相反,我们发现合并既有利可图,又能改善福利。这种情况只出现在创新规模较小、商品差异足够大的情况下。同样的结果也出现在消费者盈余上,这使我们能够推导出最优兼并政策:与库诺竞争相比,伯特兰环境要求采取更宽松的兼并政策。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic policy in the presence of social norms 存在社会规范时的动态政策
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70001
Beat Hintermann, Andreas Lange

Individual actions can depend on prevailing social norms. We investigate how optimal policy to promote pro-social action should exploit the underlying social dynamics. We develop a dynamic model of prosocial action in which conformist consumers repeatedly choose whether to engage in some prosocial activity. Whereas individual behavior is not observed, the overall participation rate in the previous period is common knowledge. We demonstrate how conformity can lead to multiple steady states and how their selection depends on starting conditions and discount factors. We further show that the optimal subsidy path can be non-monotonic and can decrease before reaching the steady state-level. Our model thus provides a rationale for introductory subsidies to promote environmentally friendly behavior from a behavioral perspective.

个人行动可能取决于现行的社会规范。我们研究了促进亲社会行动的最佳政策应如何利用潜在的社会动态。我们建立了一个亲社会行动的动态模型,在这个模型中,遵守规范的消费者会反复选择是否参与某些亲社会活动。虽然无法观察到个人行为,但上一时期的总体参与率是众所周知的。我们证明了一致性如何导致多种稳定状态,以及它们的选择如何取决于起始条件和折扣系数。我们进一步证明,最优补贴路径可能是非单调的,在达到稳定状态水平之前可能会下降。因此,我们的模型从行为学的角度为引入补贴以促进环保行为提供了理论依据。
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引用次数: 0
Counteracting “the tragedy of the commons” in an imperfect world 在不完美的世界中抵御 "公地悲剧"
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.12713
Agnieszka Wiszniewska-Matyszkiel, Rajani Singh

Our research question is whether it is possible and how to counteract “the tragedy of the commons” if facing various limitations of real-world economies. To answer it, we derive regulatory tax–subsidy systems and self-enforcing environmental agreements in a problem of extraction of common renewable resources. The first considered limitation is that the feasible class of tax–subsidy systems may have a compl icated form, for example, there are transition periods for smooth reduction of fishing. The alternative limitation is that there is no institution that can impose taxes or subsidize, so sustainability can be achieved only by self-enforcing international agreements. The next limitation is in those agreements: we assume that it takes time to detect a defection. We study these enforcement tools in a continuous-time version of a Fish War type game with n $n$ countries, with fish indispensable for their economies. We calculate the social optimum, a Nash equilibrium, and partial cooperation equilibria. The Nash equilibrium leads to the depletion of fish, while the social optimum typically results in sustainability. For partial cooperation, only two-country coalitions are stable. We calculate tax–subsidy systems that enforce maximization of joint payoff, also if there are additional constraints, and we propose an algorithm that looks for such a system in an arbitrary class of regulatory tax–subsidy systems. For the international agreement with imperfect monitoring, we are interested in the maximal detection delay for which the agreement remains self-enforcing. Counterintuitively, the more the players, the more stable the agreement.

我们的研究问题是,如果面临现实世界经济的各种限制,是否有可能以及如何应对 "公地悲剧"。为了回答这个问题,我们在提取共有可再生资源的问题中推导出了监管性税收补贴制度和自我强化环境协议。首先要考虑的限制是,税收补贴制度的可行类别可能具有复杂的形式,例如,存在平稳减少捕鱼量的过渡期。另一个限制是,没有机构可以征税或补贴,因此只能通过自我强制执行的国际协定来实现可持续性。下一个限制在于这些协议:我们假定发现叛逃需要时间。我们在一个连续时间版本的 "鱼战 "博弈中研究了这些执行工具,该博弈有 n 个国家,鱼对这些国家的经济不可或缺。我们计算了社会最优、纳什均衡和部分合作均衡。纳什均衡会导致鱼类枯竭,而社会最优均衡通常会带来可持续性。就部分合作而言,只有两国联盟是稳定的。我们计算了强制实现联合报酬最大化的税收补贴系统,如果存在额外的限制条件也是如此,我们还提出了一种算法,可以在任意一类监管税收补贴系统中寻找这样的系统。对于不完全监控的国际协议,我们感兴趣的是协议保持自我强制的最大检测延迟。与直觉相反,参与者越多,协议越稳定。
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引用次数: 0
Corruption dynamics and political instability 腐败动态和政治不稳定
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.12712
Maurizio Lisciandra, Antonio Miralles Asensio, Fabio Monteforte

This paper introduces a model where a briber designs a bribing schedule targeted at the governing party within a bipartisan system to secure favorable treatment. Detected corruption increases voters' resentment, and in turn, the risk of political turnover—raising the minimum acceptable bribe. Periods without corruption mitigate such a risk. Should the briber deem bribing unprofitable for sufficiently high levels of resentment, resentment converges to a steady state in finite time. Conversely, if the briber perceives bribing as profitable regardless of the resentment level, the dynamics may result in continuous bribing and an unbounded increase in resentment (exploding dynamics). The model underscores the complexity of addressing corruption, emphasizing the need to balance reducing corruption with preventing excessive political instability. Societal forgiveness and sensitivity significantly shape corruption dynamics and public resentment. While forgiveness reduces long-run resentment, it concurrently exacerbates long-term corruption and, on balance, may have a detrimental effect on long-term welfare. Sensitivity has no long-run effect on resentment, while it reduces both corruption activity and political instability in the long term. Finally, exogenous political instability exacerbates corruption, resentment, and the risk of exploding dynamics.

本文介绍了一个模型,在该模型中,行贿者设计了一个针对两党制中执政党的贿赂计划,以确保获得有利的待遇。被发现的腐败行为会增加选民的不满情绪,进而增加政治更替的风险--提高可接受的最低贿赂额。没有腐败的时期会降低这种风险。如果贿赂者认为贿赂无利可图,怨恨程度足够高,怨恨就会在有限时间内趋于稳定状态。反之,如果行贿者认为行贿有利可图,而不管怨恨程度如何,那么动态可能会导致持续行贿和怨恨的无限制增长(爆炸动态)。该模型突出了解决腐败问题的复杂性,强调需要在减少腐败与防止政治过度不稳定之间取得平衡。社会宽容度和敏感度在很大程度上影响着腐败动态和公众怨恨。虽然宽恕会减少长期怨恨,但同时会加剧长期腐败,总的来说,可能会对长期福利产生不利影响。敏感性对不满情绪没有长期影响,但却在长期内减少了腐败活动和政治不稳定性。最后,外生的政治不稳定性会加剧腐败、怨恨和动态爆炸的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Habits and externalities 习惯和外部因素
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.12711
Arthur J. Caplan

We develop a conceptual model characterizing two types of individuals: one myopic and the other hyperopic. A myopic individual ignores his private contributions to both a social and private negative externality, as well as the effect that his accumulation of stuff (i.e., the stock of consumption goods) has on his habit parameter. A hyperopic individual internalizes both externalities as well as his habit-formation effect. We find that the hyperopic individual consumes a greater amount of a clean good and a lesser amount of a dirty good, with the magnitude of the latter difference being greater than the magnitude of the former. Consequently, the hyperopic individual's cumulative consumption of the two goods is lower. The hyperopic individual's lower cumulative consumption also contributes to a less-persistent consumption habit. Further, we explore the extent to which the allocation of consumption across the clean and dirty goods made by an astigmatic individual (an intermediate type of individual who internalizes the private externality, as well as the habit-formation effect) diverges from the myopic individual's allocation. We consider the implications of our findings for traditional environmental tax policy as it applies to myopic and astigmatic individuals. Conceptually, we find that Pigovian tax rates in the presence of habit formation diverge from corresponding standard rates that ignore habit formation based on the difference between the magnitudes of the cumulative marginal benefit associated with habit formation and the marginal cost associated with the accumulation of stuff. Results from a simple numerical analysis demonstrate these conceptual results and more.

我们建立了一个概念模型,描述了两类人的特征:一类是近视眼,另一类是远视眼。近视型个体忽略了他个人对社会和私人负外部性的贡献,也忽略了他的积累(即消费品存量)对其习惯参数的影响。远视个体会将外部性及其习惯形成效应内化。我们发现,远视眼个体对清洁物品的消费较多,而对肮脏物品的消费较少,后者的差额大于前者的差额。因此,远视者对这两种物品的累积消费较低。远视者较低的累积消费也会导致较不持久的消费习惯。此外,我们还探讨了散光个体(一种将私人外部性和习惯养成效应内化的中间类型个体)在清洁和肮脏商品上的消费分配与近视个体的分配之间的差异程度。我们考虑了我们的发现对传统环境税收政策的影响,因为它适用于近视和散光个体。从概念上讲,我们发现在存在习惯养成的情况下,丕戈维税率与忽略习惯养成的相应标准税率之间存在差异,其依据是与习惯养成相关的累积边际收益与与积累物品相关的边际成本之间的差异。一个简单的数值分析结果证明了这些概念性结果以及更多。
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引用次数: 0
Policy rules and political polarization 政策规则和政治两极化
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.12710
Carsten Hefeker, Michael Neugart

We develop a model to analyze policymakers' incentives to install policy rules, comparing the case of no rule with a binding and a contingent policy rule that allows policymakers to suspend the rule in response to a sufficiently large shock. First, abstracting from political polarization, we show that the choice of the policy rule depends on policymakers' policy targets. Depending on the policy target, there is an unambiguous ranking going from a no-rule regime to a contingent rule to a binding rule. Next, allowing for political polarization, the incentive to install the different types of rules changes with political polarization between different policymakers and their probability of being elected into office. Increasing political polarization when there is a sufficiently high election probability for policymakers with a high policy target increases the preference for more binding policy rules. It also leads to stricter rules in a contingent rule regime.

我们建立了一个模型来分析政策制定者制定政策规则的动机,比较了无规则情况下的约束性政策规则和允许政策制定者在受到足够大的冲击时中止规则的或有政策规则。首先,我们从政治两极分化中抽象出政策规则的选择取决于决策者的政策目标。根据政策目标的不同,从无规则制度到或有规则,再到有约束力的规则,会有一个明确的排序。其次,考虑到政治极化因素,制定不同类型规则的动机会随着不同决策者之间的政治极化及其当选概率的变化而变化。当政策目标较高的决策者的当选概率足够高时,政治两极分化的加剧会增加对更具约束力的政策规则的偏好。这也会导致或有规则制度中的规则更加严格。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Public Economic Theory
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