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Lobbying as a Signal 游说是一个信号
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70071
Artyom Jelnov, Doron Klunover

A model of political competition is considered, in which a candidate who will provide favors to a lobbyist in exchange for a campaign donation, may be perceived as more competent than a rival candidate who has not received a donation and therefore will work solely on behalf of the public. We characterize the Perfect Bayesian Equilibria of the game and show that: (i) the lobbyist is able to exploit the political system to serve his own interests, although lobbying may benefit voters as well; and (ii) donating to both candidates—which is frequently observed in political campaigns—is possible only under competition among lobbyists or under asymmetric information regarding voters' preferences.

本文考虑了一种政治竞争模式,在这种模式中,一个候选人为说客提供好处以换取竞选捐款,可能会被认为比没有接受捐款的竞争对手候选人更有能力,因此将完全代表公众工作。我们描述了博弈的完全贝叶斯均衡,并表明:(i)游说者能够利用政治制度为自己的利益服务,尽管游说也可能使选民受益;(2)给两位候选人都捐款——这在政治竞选中经常观察到——只有在游说者之间的竞争或选民偏好信息不对称的情况下才有可能。
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引用次数: 0
Skill-Biased Technological Changes, Nonseparable Utility, and Dynamic Optimal Capital Tax 技能偏向的技术变革、不可分效用与动态最优资本税
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-05 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70065
Qiongqiong Li, Wenjian Li

This paper examines the optimal dynamic taxation of capital in the context of skill-biased technological change. The study reveals that the widening wage gap, coupled with the complementarity between consumption and leisure, provides a novel rationale for capital taxation. We demonstrate that taxing capital is beneficial in economies experiencing persistent skill-biased technological advancements, even if the capital is skill-neutral and the complementarity between consumption and leisure is time invariant. Converse results appear when leisure substitutes for consumption. Statistics-based optimal tax formulas are provided to show how the government can dynamically mitigate the impacts of various technological changes through the utilization of labor and capital income taxes.

本文考察了在技能偏向的技术变革背景下资本的最优动态税收。研究表明,不断扩大的工资差距,加上消费和休闲之间的互补性,为资本税提供了一个新的理由。我们证明,在经历持续技能偏向的技术进步的经济体中,对资本征税是有益的,即使资本是技能中性的,消费和休闲之间的互补性是时不变的。当休闲取代消费时,相反的结果出现了。提供了基于统计的最优税收公式,以显示政府如何通过利用劳动和资本所得税来动态地减轻各种技术变革的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Banking on Bias: Media Coverage and Financial Bailouts 偏见的银行:媒体报道和金融救助
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-02 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70064
Saltuk Ozerturk

This paper studies the optimal bailout coverage of a media firm. Driven by the incentive to lower its expected borrowing costs, the media firm's coverage tends to favor the banking sector. However, this pro-bank bias results in the same ex ante expected borrowing cost as truthful coverage. While bias reduces borrowing costs when a bailout provides no public benefit, it also leads to higher borrowing costs when a bailout serves the public interest. Ultimately, pro-bank media bias always harms the taxpayer's expected welfare. Moreover, greater financial fragility in the media sector increases the likelihood of bank failures that taxpayers would ideally seek to prevent.

本文研究了一家媒体公司的最优救助覆盖率。在降低预期借贷成本的激励下,这家媒体公司的报道倾向于青睐银行业。然而,这种对银行的偏爱导致了与真实承保相同的事前预期借贷成本。当救助没有提供公共利益时,偏见会降低借贷成本,但当救助服务于公共利益时,偏见也会导致借贷成本上升。最终,亲银行的媒体偏见总是损害纳税人的预期福利。此外,媒体行业更大的金融脆弱性增加了银行倒闭的可能性,而这正是纳税人希望避免的。
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引用次数: 0
Disclosing Effort in Dynamic Team Contests With Effort Complementarity 努力互补性下动态团队竞争中的努力披露
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70063
Maria Arbatskaya, Hideo Konishi

This paper studies strategic effort disclosure in dynamic team contests. Two teams of two players compete in a Tullock contest with teammates' sequential efforts aggregated across two periods using a Cobb–Douglas production function. We examine how equilibrium efforts and winning probabilities are affected by the teams' communication policies: no communication, private communication (efforts shared internally with stage-2 teammates), and public communication (efforts disclosed to stage-2 rivals as well). To describe asymmetric information generated by privately observable efforts for each communication policy profile, we use a perfect Bayesian equilibrium with an appropriate belief refinement for multistage complete information games. In the unique positive-effort equilibrium, the optimal choice of a communication strategy differs for the favorite (the strong team) and the underdog (the weak team). Private communication only benefits the underdog team, fostering effort complementarity and improving their chances of winning and payoffs. In contrast, the favorite team prefers either public or no communication to deter rival efforts or avoid intrateam free-riding. Importantly, endogenous communication policies reshape competitive dynamics, with private disclosure of efforts serving as a strategic equalizer for weaker teams.

本文研究动态团队竞赛中的策略努力披露。在Tullock竞赛中,两支由两名队员组成的队伍通过使用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,在两个时间段内汇总队友的连续努力。我们研究了平衡努力和获胜概率如何受到团队沟通政策的影响:没有沟通、私人沟通(与第二阶段的队友内部分享的努力)和公共沟通(也向第二阶段的对手披露的努力)。为了描述由每个通信策略配置文件的私人可观察努力产生的不对称信息,我们使用具有适当信念细化的多阶段完全信息博弈的完美贝叶斯均衡。在独特的积极努力均衡中,最优的沟通策略选择对于最受欢迎的(强团队)和弱势的(弱团队)是不同的。私下沟通只会让处于劣势的团队受益,促进努力互补,提高他们获胜的机会和回报。相比之下,最受欢迎的团队更喜欢公开或不交流,以阻止竞争对手的努力或避免团队内部搭便车。重要的是,内生性沟通政策重塑了竞争动态,私下披露的努力可以作为较弱团队的战略均衡器。
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引用次数: 0
Controlling Extortion and Collusion: Morality, Peer-Effect, and the Strategies Beyond Punishment 控制勒索与合谋:道德、同伴效应和惩罚之外的策略
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70061
Dyuti S. Banerjee, Panchali Banerjee, Vivekananda Mukherjee

We explore the interaction between enforcement and individual-specific sensitivity to moral standards in determining the scope of extortion and collusion in a bureaucracy consisting of corruptible officers. The moral standard is determined by the number of corrupt officers in the bureaucracy, which is a function of both the penalty and the probability of conviction of collusion. Both a higher penalty and a more active independent auditor, like the media, keep the number of corrupt officers in check in a “low” and “medium” penalty situation and incentivize compliance. Extortion occurs only under a “low penalty, low compliance cost” situation. Increases in penalty or judicial accuracy in judging extortion cases or active independent auditing keep extortion in check. Controlling the rent of the firms induces compliance and reduces both extortion and collusion incidents in an economy, having a greater impact on collusion than extortion.

在一个由腐败官员组成的官僚机构中,我们探讨了执法和个人对道德标准的特定敏感性之间的相互作用,以确定敲诈勒索和勾结的范围。道德标准是由官僚机构中腐败官员的数量决定的,腐败官员的数量是惩罚和合谋定罪概率的函数。更高的罚款和更积极的独立审计员(如媒体),都可以在“低”和“中等”罚款的情况下控制腐败官员的数量,并激励合规。敲诈勒索只有在“低罚金、低合规成本”的情况下才会发生。提高对敲诈勒索案件的处罚或司法准确性,或积极的独立审计,都可以遏制敲诈勒索。控制企业租金可以诱导企业的合规性,减少企业的勒索和合谋事件,对合谋的影响大于对勒索的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Interventions When Illicit Trafficking Responds 应对非法贩运时的最佳干预措施
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70062
Mehmet Bac

The capabilities of illicit trafficking organizations to expand or contract their periphery and source segments by modifying their link structures pose challenges to law enforcement. This paper scrutinizes the structural response of illicit trafficking organizations to intervention strategies. It also studies how the law enforcement authority should allocate its resources between the source and the periphery segments, given the structural response of trafficking, to minimize the expected harms. The analysis shows that traffickers integrate the supply, possibly build redundant sources and expand in peripheral markets if the source segment is targeted (decapitation), maintain near-maximal expansion by splintering into supply cells or thin subnetworks if the periphery is targeted (amputation). This response subverts law enforcement primarily by suppressing the possibility of trace-back detection of trafficking units through their detected connections. In the transnational trafficking context, it can also stifle intelligence sharing between nations. The optimal intervention, then, is amputation under intermediate budgets and large source fragmentation costs, decapitation under low detection contiguity. Actual policies that prioritize border protection and port-of-entry units can be optimal from national, but not global, perspective.

非法贩运组织通过修改其联系结构来扩大或缩小其外围和来源部分的能力对执法构成挑战。本文详细分析了非法贩运组织对干预战略的结构性反应。本文还研究了在人口贩运的结构性反应下,执法部门应如何在源头和边缘部门之间分配资源,以最大限度地减少预期危害。分析表明,贩运者整合供应,如果来源部分成为目标(斩首),可能建立冗余来源并在外围市场扩张,如果外围部分成为目标(截肢),则通过分裂成供应单元或薄子网络来保持近乎最大的扩张。这种反应主要是通过抑制通过被发现的联系追查贩运单位的可能性来破坏执法。在跨国贩运的背景下,它也会阻碍国家之间的情报共享。因此,最优的干预措施是在中等预算和较大的源碎片成本下进行断头,在低探测邻近度下进行断头。从国家(而非全球)的角度来看,优先考虑边境保护和入境口岸单位的实际政策可能是最佳的。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Incentives With Other-Regarding Principal and Agents 与他人无关的委托人和代理人的最优激励
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70066
Swapnendu Banerjee, Somenath Chakraborty, Arijit Mukherjee, Sougata Poddar

Analyzing interactions between an other-regarding principal and two other-regarding agents, we show with continuous efforts and outcomes that “team contracts” are optimal if the principal is inequity averse or not “too status seeking.” However, if the principal is sufficiently status seeking and the agents' wages are far apart, relative performance contracts or independent contracts could be the optimal choice of the principal. However, a status-seeking principal will certainly offer relative performance contracts to self-regarding agents. The above results hold when the ‘direct wage incentive’ effect is not too high. With discrete efforts and outcomes, both team contracts and relative performance contracts can be optimal if the principal is “status seeking” or “not too inequity averse.” But an extreme independent contract can also be optimal when the principal is sufficiently inequity averse. Similar results hold when the projects of the agents are correlated. With a “fair” principal, ceteris paribus, team contracts are more likely over relative performance contracts, however, relative performance contracts can also be optimal with other-regarding agents.

通过分析一个与他人相关的委托人和两个与他人相关的代理人之间的相互作用,我们通过持续的努力和结果表明,如果委托人厌恶不平等或不是“过于追求地位”,“团队合同”是最优的。然而,如果委托人有足够的地位追求,而代理人的工资差距很大,相对履约合同或独立合同可能是委托人的最优选择。然而,追求地位的委托人肯定会向以自我为中心的代理人提供相对的履行合同。当“直接工资激励”效应不太高时,上述结果成立。对于离散的努力和结果,如果委托人是“追求地位”或“不太反对不平等”,团队合同和相对绩效合同都可能是最优的。但当委托人足够厌恶不平等时,极端独立契约也可能是最优的。当代理的项目相互关联时,结果相似。在“公平”的委托人条件下,其他条件不变,团队合同更可能优于相对绩效合同,然而,相对绩效合同也可能是与他人相关的代理人的最佳合同。
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引用次数: 0
Minorities in Dictatorship and Democracy 独裁和民主中的少数民族
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70060
Arseniy Samsonov

How does the level of democracy in a country affect the government's treatment of ethnic minorities? I use the Baron–Ferejohn game to model bargaining over government formation and resource division in an ethnically fragmented society. Each ethnic group is a unitary actor, voting weights correspond to ethnic group sizes, and recognition probabilities are proportional to voting weights. The voting quota required to pass a decision is a proxy for the level of democracy. When the majority group exceeds half of the population, the expected payoffs of minorities non-monotonically depend on the voting quota. When the voting quota is small, several minorities may form a winning coalition, so minorities get high expected payoffs. This outcome explains the existence of relatively tolerant autocracies. For intermediate values, a coalition of minorities is insufficient to rule while the majority is sufficient. As a result, it gets most of the surplus, which reflects democracies where minorities are underrepresented in the government and get fewer benefits. Finally, when the voting quota is large, minorities are needed to form a winning coalition, so their expected payoffs are high, too. The latter scenario corresponds to democracies with many constraints on the leader, who needs the support of minorities to get approval from various branches of power.

一个国家的民主程度如何影响政府对待少数民族的方式?我使用Baron-Ferejohn游戏来模拟在一个种族分裂的社会中政府组建和资源分配的讨价还价。每个族群都是一个单一的行动者,投票权重对应于族群规模,识别概率与投票权重成正比。通过一项决议所需的投票配额是民主程度的代表。当多数群体超过人口的一半时,少数群体的预期收益非单调地依赖于投票配额。当投票配额较小时,几个少数民族可能组成一个获胜的联盟,因此少数民族获得高预期回报。这一结果解释了相对宽容的专制政体的存在。对于中间价值观来说,少数人的联盟不足以统治,而多数人就足够了。因此,它获得了大部分的盈余,这反映了民主国家,少数民族在政府中的代表性不足,获得的福利较少。最后,当投票配额很大时,少数派需要组成一个获胜的联盟,因此他们的预期回报也很高。后一种情况对应于对领导人有许多限制的民主国家,领导人需要少数民族的支持才能获得各种权力部门的批准。
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引用次数: 0
Riding the Green Bandwagon: An Analysis of Green Social Influences on Sustainability Communication 顺应绿色潮流:绿色社会对可持续传播的影响分析
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70058
Joshua Hilton

This paper presents a signaling model of eco-labeling that incorporates social benefits from green consumption through bandwagon effects. A monopoly firm chooses whether to adopt an eco-label when consumers are uncertain about the firm's environmental type but derive utility from both the intrinsic value of green products and their social desirability. The analysis reveals that the strength of bandwagon effects relative to intrinsic value determines equilibrium outcomes: weak effects support only separating equilibria where green firms truthfully label, while strong effects enable both separating and pooling equilibria, creating opportunities for greenwashing. Paradoxically, higher consumer trust in firm greenness expands opportunities for greenwashing by making pooling equilibria profitable over a wider range of labeling costs. However, pooling equilibria require identical labeling costs for both firm types—even small cost differentials favoring green firms will eliminate greenwashing, providing an empirically testable prediction with implications for certification design. Welfare analysis demonstrates that separating equilibria generates strictly higher consumer surplus and producer surplus simultaneously compared to pooling equilibria, while also mitigating the environmental damage from brown production that occurs under pooling. The model identifies a critical labeling cost threshold above which policies that increase green product value lead to market expansion rather than premium positioning, suggesting that subsidies for green product improvement should be coupled with measures which push labeling costs above this threshold. The model reveals a tension in regulatory approach: markets with strong social effects and high consumer trust require the most stringent certification and monitoring to prevent greenwashing, while those dominated by intrinsic value may function effectively with simpler schemes. The results provide theoretical justification for risk-based enforcement strategies that intensify monitoring as consumer trust increases and suggest that third-party certification or targeted subsidies creating cost differentials between firm types can effectively deter greenwashing.

本文提出了一个生态标签的信号模型,通过从众效应将绿色消费的社会效益纳入其中。当消费者不确定企业的环境类型,但从绿色产品的内在价值和社会可取性中获得效用时,垄断企业选择是否采用生态标签。分析表明,从众效应相对于内在价值的强度决定了均衡结果:弱效应只支持绿色企业真实标记的分离均衡,而强效应既支持分离均衡,也支持汇集均衡,为“漂绿”创造了机会。矛盾的是,消费者对绿色企业的信任度越高,通过使池化均衡在更大范围的标签成本上有利可图,从而扩大了“漂绿”的机会。然而,汇集均衡要求两种公司类型的标签成本相同——即使是有利于绿色公司的小成本差异也会消除“漂绿”现象,这为认证设计提供了一个经验可检验的预测。福利分析表明,与池化均衡相比,分离均衡同时产生了严格更高的消费者剩余和生产者剩余,同时也减轻了池化下棕色生产对环境的破坏。该模型确定了一个关键的标签成本阈值,超过该阈值,增加绿色产品价值的政策将导致市场扩张,而不是溢价定位,这表明对绿色产品改进的补贴应与将标签成本推高到该阈值以上的措施相结合。该模型揭示了监管方法的紧张关系:具有强大社会效应和高度消费者信任的市场需要最严格的认证和监督,以防止“漂绿”,而那些由内在价值主导的市场可能通过更简单的方案有效运作。研究结果为基于风险的执法策略提供了理论依据,即随着消费者信任度的增加而加强监测,并表明第三方认证或在企业类型之间造成成本差异的有针对性的补贴可以有效地阻止“漂绿”。
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引用次数: 0
An Economic Model of the French Revolution 法国大革命的经济模型
IF 0.9 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1111/jpet.70057
Kishore Gawande, Ben Zissimos

We offer a new economic perspective on the French Revolution by analyzing how an elite commitment problem and trade policy shaped revolutionary dynamics. We develop a complete-information game-theoretic model in which revolution can occur on the equilibrium path. By formalizing the interaction between democratization and trade policy, our model explains when revolution may occur with some probability. Unlike models with incomplete information, where revolutions may be mistakes, our approach shows that revolution occurs only when it is beneficial for the rest of society. Paradoxically, we show that revolution could occur only because there was sufficient trust in the Ancien Régime.

我们通过分析精英承诺问题和贸易政策如何塑造革命动力,为法国大革命提供了一个新的经济视角。我们建立了一个完全信息博弈论模型,在该模型中,均衡路径上可以发生革命。通过将民主化和贸易政策之间的相互作用形式化,我们的模型解释了革命何时可能以某种概率发生。与信息不完全的模型不同,革命可能是错误的,我们的方法表明,革命只有在对社会其他部分有益时才会发生。矛盾的是,我们证明革命只有在对旧制度有足够信任的情况下才会发生。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Public Economic Theory
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