Pub Date : 2023-11-01DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2272349
Carles Ortola
ABSTRACTCausation has traditionally been an under-theorized topic. Until Hendrickson’s work, very little effort had been devoted to creating a compelling theory of causation in intelligence analysis. In line with the recent attempts to integrate intelligence theory with philosophy, this article is intended to contribute to the philosophy of intelligence by defining a dedicated account of causation for it. The Unified Theory for Intelligence Analysis, as this account of causation is named, is intended to integrate into a single account Betts’ Normal and Exceptional Theories as well as Hendrickson’s target challenges. It is then proved that a pluralistic account of causation that combines both counterfactual and probabilistic accounts of causation is the most successful option. Finally, it is shown that Bayesian tools are the natural manifestation of this Unified Theory, and that Subjective Logic can help refute criticism against Bayesianism in intelligence analysis. Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. Phythian, “Intelligence Analysis and Social Science Methods: Exploring the Potential for and Possible Limits of Mutual Learning,” 601.2. Marrin, Improving Intelligence Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Scholarship and Practice.3. Kaupi, “Counterterrorism Analysis 101,” 47.4. Phythian, “Intelligence Analysis and Social Science Methods: Exploring the Potential for and Possible Limits of Mutual Learning,” p. 605.5. Betts, Enemies of Intelligence: Knowledge and Power in American National Security, p. 57.6. Laplace’s demon is a hypothetical being that has perfect knowledge of the position and momentum of every particle in the universe. If such a being existed, it could use this knowledge to predict the future with certainty. Laplace and his contemporaries believed that the universe was deterministic, meaning that every event was caused by a previous event and could be predicted with perfect knowledge. However, later research showed that the universe is not deterministic at the quantum level, meaning that there is an element of randomness in nature. This led to the crisis of classical determinism and the development of probabilistic quantum mechanics, which is a more accurate description of the world.7. Minkel, “If the Universe Were a Computer”.8. Phythian, ‘Intelligence Analysis and Social Science Methods: Exploring the Potential for and Possible Limits of Mutual Learning’. P. 603.9. Hendrickson, Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts: A Multidimensional Approach of Traits, Techniques, and Targets.10. Heuer, “The Evolution of Structured Analytic Techniques,” p. 4.11. Hendrickson, Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts: A Multidimensional Approach of Traits, Techniques, and Targets.12. According to Hendrickson, there is an epistemic continuum from data collection to strategic advice, and it can be divided into four separate stages that can be added up depending on the kind of intelligence to be produced. I
{"title":"A Unified Theory for Intelligence Analysis","authors":"Carles Ortola","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2272349","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2272349","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTCausation has traditionally been an under-theorized topic. Until Hendrickson’s work, very little effort had been devoted to creating a compelling theory of causation in intelligence analysis. In line with the recent attempts to integrate intelligence theory with philosophy, this article is intended to contribute to the philosophy of intelligence by defining a dedicated account of causation for it. The Unified Theory for Intelligence Analysis, as this account of causation is named, is intended to integrate into a single account Betts’ Normal and Exceptional Theories as well as Hendrickson’s target challenges. It is then proved that a pluralistic account of causation that combines both counterfactual and probabilistic accounts of causation is the most successful option. Finally, it is shown that Bayesian tools are the natural manifestation of this Unified Theory, and that Subjective Logic can help refute criticism against Bayesianism in intelligence analysis. Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. Phythian, “Intelligence Analysis and Social Science Methods: Exploring the Potential for and Possible Limits of Mutual Learning,” 601.2. Marrin, Improving Intelligence Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Scholarship and Practice.3. Kaupi, “Counterterrorism Analysis 101,” 47.4. Phythian, “Intelligence Analysis and Social Science Methods: Exploring the Potential for and Possible Limits of Mutual Learning,” p. 605.5. Betts, Enemies of Intelligence: Knowledge and Power in American National Security, p. 57.6. Laplace’s demon is a hypothetical being that has perfect knowledge of the position and momentum of every particle in the universe. If such a being existed, it could use this knowledge to predict the future with certainty. Laplace and his contemporaries believed that the universe was deterministic, meaning that every event was caused by a previous event and could be predicted with perfect knowledge. However, later research showed that the universe is not deterministic at the quantum level, meaning that there is an element of randomness in nature. This led to the crisis of classical determinism and the development of probabilistic quantum mechanics, which is a more accurate description of the world.7. Minkel, “If the Universe Were a Computer”.8. Phythian, ‘Intelligence Analysis and Social Science Methods: Exploring the Potential for and Possible Limits of Mutual Learning’. P. 603.9. Hendrickson, Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts: A Multidimensional Approach of Traits, Techniques, and Targets.10. Heuer, “The Evolution of Structured Analytic Techniques,” p. 4.11. Hendrickson, Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts: A Multidimensional Approach of Traits, Techniques, and Targets.12. According to Hendrickson, there is an epistemic continuum from data collection to strategic advice, and it can be divided into four separate stages that can be added up depending on the kind of intelligence to be produced. I","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135371559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-24DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2272326
Jesse Heley
{"title":"Warship 2023 <b>Warship 2023</b> , edited by John Jordan, London, Osprey, 2023, 224 pp., Illustrated throughout with black-and-white photographs, £45 (hbk), ISBN: 9781472857132","authors":"Jesse Heley","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2272326","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2272326","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135322027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-18DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2211872
R. Gerald Hughes, Martin Plaut
{"title":"The Evolution of African Intelligence Cultures","authors":"R. Gerald Hughes, Martin Plaut","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2211872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2211872","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135825335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-17DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2269512
David Easter
From 1944 the State Department attempted to improve its communications security by creating a Division of Cryptography and mechanising the encryption process. This article assesses the effectiveness of these reforms and shows that State’s new cipher equipment had cryptographic vulnerabilities. Moreover, the department was unable to maintain physical security at the Moscow embassy and through espionage and technical surveillance the KGB broke the ciphers and read American communications. The paper concludes by analysing the impact of this security failure, including the claim that intercepted messages influenced Stalin’s decision to approve the North Korean invasion of South Korea in 1950.
{"title":"State Department cipher machines and communications security in the early Cold War, 1944–1965","authors":"David Easter","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2269512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2269512","url":null,"abstract":"From 1944 the State Department attempted to improve its communications security by creating a Division of Cryptography and mechanising the encryption process. This article assesses the effectiveness of these reforms and shows that State’s new cipher equipment had cryptographic vulnerabilities. Moreover, the department was unable to maintain physical security at the Moscow embassy and through espionage and technical surveillance the KGB broke the ciphers and read American communications. The paper concludes by analysing the impact of this security failure, including the claim that intercepted messages influenced Stalin’s decision to approve the North Korean invasion of South Korea in 1950.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135993128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-13DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2269517
Antonio M. Díaz-Fernández
{"title":"Learning for times of uncertainty <b>Estimative intelligence in European foreign policymaking. Learning lessons from an era of surprise</b> , edited by Christoph Meyer, Eva Michaels, Nikki Ikani, Aviva Guttmann, Michael S. Goodman, Edinburgh, Edinburgh University Press, 2022, 370 pp., £85.00 (Hardback), ISBN: 9781399505512","authors":"Antonio M. Díaz-Fernández","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2269517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2269517","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135853783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-03DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2265637
Kurt F. Jensen
Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes1. Sophie Duroy is a Fellow with the KFG Berlin-Potsdam Research Group, ‘The International Rule of Law: Rise or Decline?’, based at Freie Universität Berlin.2. Sophie Duroy, The Regulation of Intelligence Activities under International Law. (Cheltenham UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, Citation2023), text on back cover.3. Ibid, p. 1.4. Ibid, p. 2.5. Ibid, p. 4.6. Ibid, p. 6.7. Ibid, p. 21.8. Ibid, p. 80.9. Ibid, p. 119.10. Ibid, p. 120.11. Ibid, p. 122.12. Ibid, p. 125.13. Ibid, p. 153.14. Ibid, p. 183.15. Ibid, p. 191.16. Ibid, p. 280.17. Ibid, pp 280–81.Additional informationNotes on contributorsKurt F. JensenKurt F. Jensen is a Fellow with KFG Berlin-Potsdam Research Group 'The International Rule of Law: Rise or Decline?'. Berlin, Germany.
点击放大图片点击缩小图片注释1.索菲-杜洛瓦是 KFG 柏林-波茨坦研究小组 "国际法治：崛起还是衰落？Sophie Duroy, The Regulation of Intelligence Activities under International Law.(Cheltenham UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, Citation2023), text on back cover.3. 同上，第 1.4 页。同上，第 2.5 页。同上，第 4.6 页。同上，第 6.7 页。同上，第 21.8 页。同上，第 80.9 页。同上，第 119.10 页。同上，第 120.11 页。同上，第 122.12 页。同上，第 125.13 页。同上，第 153.14 页。同上，第 183.15 页。同上，第 191.16 页。同上，第 280 页。其他信息撰稿人注释库尔特-F-詹森库尔特-F-詹森是 KFG 柏林-波茨坦研究小组 "国际法治：崛起还是衰落？德国柏林。德国柏林。
{"title":"The regulation of intelligence activities under international law <b>The regulation of intelligence activities under international law</b> , by Duroy, Sophie, Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023, xii+311 pp., ₤105/US$204.23 (hardcover), ISBN: 9781803927077","authors":"Kurt F. Jensen","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2265637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2265637","url":null,"abstract":"Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes1. Sophie Duroy is a Fellow with the KFG Berlin-Potsdam Research Group, ‘The International Rule of Law: Rise or Decline?’, based at Freie Universität Berlin.2. Sophie Duroy, The Regulation of Intelligence Activities under International Law. (Cheltenham UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, Citation2023), text on back cover.3. Ibid, p. 1.4. Ibid, p. 2.5. Ibid, p. 4.6. Ibid, p. 6.7. Ibid, p. 21.8. Ibid, p. 80.9. Ibid, p. 119.10. Ibid, p. 120.11. Ibid, p. 122.12. Ibid, p. 125.13. Ibid, p. 153.14. Ibid, p. 183.15. Ibid, p. 191.16. Ibid, p. 280.17. Ibid, pp 280–81.Additional informationNotes on contributorsKurt F. JensenKurt F. Jensen is a Fellow with KFG Berlin-Potsdam Research Group 'The International Rule of Law: Rise or Decline?'. Berlin, Germany.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135738883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2262768
Paul Schliefsteiner
Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes1. The German word ‘erzählt’ can be used very differently. It can simply mean telling, recounting or relating but it also can be used to convey that the content that is told at least doubtful or not believable. One erzählt [tells] fairy tales and especially in Austrian German one also ‘erzählt G’schichtln’. A phrase that directly translates to ‘telling stories’, but it expresses the notion that these stories in best case were (intended) to entertain the listener but should not be taken (too) seriously. But more often the phrase means that what has been told is nonsense, lies or a rumor. Given this connotation it is quite surprising, that the word was used in the title of this book. Especially since the verb ‘berichtet’ that can best directly translated with ‘reports’ would have had the same meaning without a possible subtext and indeed would have been the better fit. Since also German, intelligence services report.
单击可增大图像大小单击可减小图像大小注1。德语单词“erzählt”的用法非常不同。它可以简单地表示讲述、叙述或相关，但它也可以用来表达所讲述的内容至少是可疑的或不可信的。一个erzählt(讲)童话故事，特别是在奥地利德语中，还有一个' erzählt G ' schichtln '。这个短语可以直接翻译成“讲故事”，但它表达了这样一种观念，即这些故事在最好的情况下是为了娱乐听众，但不应该(太)认真。但更多时候，这个短语的意思是被告知的是胡说八道、谎言或谣言。考虑到这个含义，这本书的标题中使用这个词是相当令人惊讶的。尤其是动词“berichtet”最能直接翻译成“报告”，它的意思是一样的，没有潜在的潜台词，确实更合适。自也德国，情报部门报告。
{"title":"Schattenwelten: Österreichs Geheimdienstchef erzählt <b>Schattenwelten: Österreichs Geheimdienstchef erzählt</b> , Gert R. Polli, Graz, Ares Verlag, 2022, 312 pp., (Hardcover) 26,63 Euro, ISBN: 978-3-99081-097","authors":"Paul Schliefsteiner","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2262768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2262768","url":null,"abstract":"Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes1. The German word ‘erzählt’ can be used very differently. It can simply mean telling, recounting or relating but it also can be used to convey that the content that is told at least doubtful or not believable. One erzählt [tells] fairy tales and especially in Austrian German one also ‘erzählt G’schichtln’. A phrase that directly translates to ‘telling stories’, but it expresses the notion that these stories in best case were (intended) to entertain the listener but should not be taken (too) seriously. But more often the phrase means that what has been told is nonsense, lies or a rumor. Given this connotation it is quite surprising, that the word was used in the title of this book. Especially since the verb ‘berichtet’ that can best directly translated with ‘reports’ would have had the same meaning without a possible subtext and indeed would have been the better fit. Since also German, intelligence services report.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135829924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-30DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2258693
Karl Dewey
Under military rule (1973–1990), Chile embarked upon several top-secret chemical and biological weapons (CBW) programmes. ‘Project ANDREA’ and the development of sarin is the best known, although other programmes have also been reported. However, these programmes remain poorly understood – particularly in English language sources. To resolve this, this paper draws upon local-language reporting, Cold War histories and other sources to provide insight into the histories, key personalities, and evolution of Chile’s historical CBW programmes. This paper contributes to wider literature on Chile’s dictatorship, but also literature on CBW-proliferation, which remains confined to a relatively small set of case studies.
{"title":"Pinochet’s poisons: examining Chile’s historical interest in chemical and biological weapons","authors":"Karl Dewey","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2258693","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2258693","url":null,"abstract":"Under military rule (1973–1990), Chile embarked upon several top-secret chemical and biological weapons (CBW) programmes. ‘Project ANDREA’ and the development of sarin is the best known, although other programmes have also been reported. However, these programmes remain poorly understood – particularly in English language sources. To resolve this, this paper draws upon local-language reporting, Cold War histories and other sources to provide insight into the histories, key personalities, and evolution of Chile’s historical CBW programmes. This paper contributes to wider literature on Chile’s dictatorship, but also literature on CBW-proliferation, which remains confined to a relatively small set of case studies.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136341463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-25DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2255446
Melanie Sofia Hartvigsen
ABSTRACTThis article investigates the conceptualisation of accountability in the Intelligence Studies literature, distinguishing between accountability as a mechanism and a virtue, and questions the predominant emphasis on the former. The mechanism approach encounters two significant challenges: the functionalist solutions to accountability issues and the overarching focus on oversight bodies. Consequently, the literature ignores its own realisations of the importance of beliefs and perceptions within the services. I propose a novel approach to studying intelligence accountability by integrating insights from the Institutional Logics literature and Bourdieu’s political sociology to address these issues. AcknowledgementsThe author would like to thank the members of the Center for War Studies, University of Southern Denmark, and the participants at the 2022 DPSA Conference and the ISA 2023 Annual Convention for their helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. Many thanks also to the Carlsberg Foundation for supporting this work and to the INTELHUB research group, as well as Kira Vrist Rønn, Chiara De Franco, Vincent Keating, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful advice.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. Leigh and Wegge, “Intelligence and Oversight,” 1.2. Bovens, “Analysing and Assessing Accountability,”; and Mulgan, Holding Power to Account.3. Bovens, “Two Concepts of Accountability.”4. For a broader discussion on the need for a new research agenda for the study of intelligence, see e.g., Ben Jaffel and Larsson, “Why Do We Need a New Research Agenda for the Study of Intelligence?”; and Bean, de Werd and Ivan, “Critical Intelligence Studies.”5. For an examination of the domains of political science, public administration, constitutional law, and business administration, see Bovens, Schillemans and Goodin, ‘Public Accountability’.6. Bovens, “Two Concepts of Accountability,”7. Ibid.8. Political science, public administration, international relations, social psychology, constitutional law, and business administration.9. For a thorough description of the emergence of accountability, see Bovens, “Analysing and Assessing Accountability.”’.10. Bovens, “Two Concepts of Accountability,”, 915.11. Bovens, Schillemans and Goodin, “Public Accountability.”12. Behn, Rethinking Democratic Accountability, 9.13. Müller-Wille, “Improving the democratic accountability of EU intelligence,” 101.14. Bovens, “Analysing and Assessing Accountability,” 451.15. Van Puyvelde, “Intelligence accountability and the role of public interest groups,” 144.16. Greenwood and Huisman, Transparency and Accountability of Police Forces, Security Services and Intelligence Services.17. Bovens, “Two Concepts of Accountability,” 949.18. Bovens, Schillemans and Goodin, “Public Accountability,” 8. See also Koppell, “Pathologies of Accountability”; and Considine, “The End of the Line?”19. Bovens, “Two Concepts of Accountabil
将民主问责制作为监督的主要论据的作者包括:Aden，“信息共享、保密和信任”;Defty，“对议员进行智力教育”;Dobson，“最后的问责论坛?”约翰逊，《问责制与美国的秘密外交政策》;Leigh，《改变游戏规则》;meller - wille，“改善欧盟情报的民主问责制”;Van Puyvelde，《情报、民主问责制和媒体》;Jansson，《建立韧性，摧毁民主?》塞格尔:《信息对改革的影响》;《走向对情报机构的有效民主监督》;Caparini，“控制和监督情报部门”;埃里克森:“专业知识与民主之间的治理”;格林伍德和豪斯曼，透明度和问责制;Hardy和Williams，“情报机构的执行监督”;希勒布兰德，《新闻媒体在情报监督中的作用》;Matei，《媒体在情报民主化中的作用》;科赫，《民主党控制情报机构》;以及Born和Johnson的《平衡运作效率和民主合法性》，第47页。m<e:1> ler- wille，“改善欧盟情报的民主问责制”，第103.48期。Eijkman和Weggemans，“开源情报和隐私困境”;Leigh，《改变游戏规则》;Leigh，《权利再平衡与国家安全》;先生们，“改革埃及情报”;《走向有效的民主监督》;以及Born和Wetzling，“情报责任”，第49页。gonalalves，《来自热带的间谍》;马丁，《东欧的教训》;Bochel, Defty和Kirkpatrick，“独立问责的新机制”，第50页。利，<更仔细地观察间谍>，第51页。Defty，“从议员委员会到议会委员会”;马丁，《东欧的教训》;meller - wille，“改善欧盟情报的民主问责制”;Van Puyvelde，《情报民主问责制》;Bochel, Defty和Kirkpatrick:《独立问责的新机制》;yurii - miranda，《评估问责原则》;卡帕里尼，“控制和监督情报部门”，第52页。伯恩和利，《使情报负责》，第53页。Hillebrand，《安慰剂审查》;meller - wille，“改善欧盟情报的民主问责制”;Caparini，“控制和监督情报部门”;Leigh，《改变游戏规则》;Leigh，《权利再平衡与国家安全》;《走向有效的民主监督》;先生们，“改革埃及情报”;休斯和斯托达特，《希望与恐惧》;Eijkman和Weggemans，“开源情报和隐私困境”，第54页。参见《出生与遗嘱》的《超越矛盾修辞法》和《塞蒂》的《监视、保密和寻找有意义的问责制》以及他对《爱国者法案》第215条的讨论;和Koch，“民主党控制情报部门”和她对丹麦情报部门法律授权的讨论。Born and Wetzling， <情报责任>，第56页。马丁，“东欧对现代情报改革的教训”，561.57。马丁，“东欧对现代情报改革的教训”，561.58。关于高信任度社会中公众对情报机构信任的讨论，见Hansen，“Offentlighedens tillid till efterretningstjenesterne[公众对情报机构的信任]”。格林伍德和豪氏威马，透明度和问责制，12.60。格林伍德和豪氏威马，透明度和问责制，221;克拉伦，《界定国家安全中的司法角色》，61页。Aden，“信息共享、保密和信任”，983;吉尔，《情报监督和监视社团主义的挑战》62页。吉尔，“情报监督和监视社团主义的挑战”，981.63。Leigh， <改变游戏规则>，955.64。伯恩和利，《使情报可靠》，15.65页。参见Born，“走向有效的民主监督”;meller - wille，“改善欧盟情报的民主问责制”;和Matei，“媒体在情报民主化中的作用”66。《媒体在情报民主化中的作用》，第67期。“熟悉但不亲密”，65.68分。Matei，《媒体在情报民主化中的作用》，1989;《走向有效的民主监督》，69页。《媒体在情报民主化中的作用》，第7期。Ibid.71。引用自Manjikian，“两种类型的情报机构问责制”，687.72。Aldrich， <全球情报合作与责任>，56.73。卡帕里尼，“控制和监督情报部门”，第14.74页。 约翰逊，“情报冲击、媒体报道和国会问责制”;约翰逊，《国会与美国实验》;Manjikian，“两种类型的情报界问责制”。约翰逊，<情报冲击、媒体报道和国会问责制> 76。约翰逊，“情报冲击、媒体报道和国会问责制”;约翰逊，《国会与美国实验》;Manjikian，“两种类型的情报界问责制”，77页。贝茨，《情报的敌人》，52.78。Farson和Whitaker，《会计未来还是会计过去?》679.79”。“信息共享时代的情报专业知识”，《情报管理》第8期。Manjikian， <两种类型的情报界问责制>，第81页。“信息共享时代的情报专业知识”，《情报管理》，2002。Manjikian， <两种类型的情报机构问责制>，第83页。Manjikian，“两种类型的情报界问责制”，687.84。如上,691.85。Leon-Reyes，“情报责任的反思性研究”，第1-2.86页。另见Kniep et al.，“走向民主情报监督”;Hoffmann, Chalati和Dogan，“重新思考情报实践和过程”;和Ben Jaffel等人，“集体讨论”，第87页。Hoffmann, Chalati和Dogan，“重新思考情报实践和过程”，第1.88页。Klein Goldewijk，《为什么还持批判态度?》89页。迪马乔和鲍威尔，《重访铁笼》;桑顿，奥卡西奥和朗斯伯里，《制度逻辑视角》，第90页。Bigo，“数字时代和跨国世界中的共享保密”;Ben Jaffel，《英国在反恐情报合作中的欧洲联系》91。Reay and Hinings， <组织领域的重组>，1992。Scott， <概念化组织领域>，1993。Lounsbury et al.，《制度逻辑研究的新方向》，1994。参见Reay和Hinings，“管理竞争性制度逻辑的竞争”;桑顿等人，制度逻辑视角;95。霍恩，<政治保密的逻辑>，96。如上,109.97。卡帕里尼，<控制和监督情报部门>，第98页。Reay and Jones， <定性地捕捉制度逻辑>，1999。李昂-雷耶斯，《情报责任的反思性研究》，第100期。本·贾菲尔和拉尔森，《导论》;和Kniep等人，“走向民主的情报监督”，101。汤普森，<民主保密>，第102页。Kniep等人，“走向民主的情报监督”，10.103。Ibid.104。参见Cooper和Johnston的《Vulgate Accountability》;Hathazy，“为民主警察而战”;Killian，“因为缺乏问责”;Kuruppu and Lodhia:《在非政府组织中塑造问责制》;以及申金和库尔森，《通过行动主义问责》，第105页。布迪厄和瓦昆特，《反思社会学的邀请》，2006。Bigo“数字时代和跨国世界中的共享保密”。本研究由
{"title":"Towards Intelligence Accountability as a virtue","authors":"Melanie Sofia Hartvigsen","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2255446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2255446","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTThis article investigates the conceptualisation of accountability in the Intelligence Studies literature, distinguishing between accountability as a mechanism and a virtue, and questions the predominant emphasis on the former. The mechanism approach encounters two significant challenges: the functionalist solutions to accountability issues and the overarching focus on oversight bodies. Consequently, the literature ignores its own realisations of the importance of beliefs and perceptions within the services. I propose a novel approach to studying intelligence accountability by integrating insights from the Institutional Logics literature and Bourdieu’s political sociology to address these issues. AcknowledgementsThe author would like to thank the members of the Center for War Studies, University of Southern Denmark, and the participants at the 2022 DPSA Conference and the ISA 2023 Annual Convention for their helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. Many thanks also to the Carlsberg Foundation for supporting this work and to the INTELHUB research group, as well as Kira Vrist Rønn, Chiara De Franco, Vincent Keating, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful advice.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. Leigh and Wegge, “Intelligence and Oversight,” 1.2. Bovens, “Analysing and Assessing Accountability,”; and Mulgan, Holding Power to Account.3. Bovens, “Two Concepts of Accountability.”4. For a broader discussion on the need for a new research agenda for the study of intelligence, see e.g., Ben Jaffel and Larsson, “Why Do We Need a New Research Agenda for the Study of Intelligence?”; and Bean, de Werd and Ivan, “Critical Intelligence Studies.”5. For an examination of the domains of political science, public administration, constitutional law, and business administration, see Bovens, Schillemans and Goodin, ‘Public Accountability’.6. Bovens, “Two Concepts of Accountability,”7. Ibid.8. Political science, public administration, international relations, social psychology, constitutional law, and business administration.9. For a thorough description of the emergence of accountability, see Bovens, “Analysing and Assessing Accountability.”’.10. Bovens, “Two Concepts of Accountability,”, 915.11. Bovens, Schillemans and Goodin, “Public Accountability.”12. Behn, Rethinking Democratic Accountability, 9.13. Müller-Wille, “Improving the democratic accountability of EU intelligence,” 101.14. Bovens, “Analysing and Assessing Accountability,” 451.15. Van Puyvelde, “Intelligence accountability and the role of public interest groups,” 144.16. Greenwood and Huisman, Transparency and Accountability of Police Forces, Security Services and Intelligence Services.17. Bovens, “Two Concepts of Accountability,” 949.18. Bovens, Schillemans and Goodin, “Public Accountability,” 8. See also Koppell, “Pathologies of Accountability”; and Considine, “The End of the Line?”19. Bovens, “Two Concepts of Accountabil","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135859167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-20DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2250478
Steven Stottlemyre
This article examines whether increased intelligence capacity improves global security, a key assumption in intelligence theory. Using the partial least squares structural equation modelling method, the research statistically analyzes data from the U.S. International Intelligence Behaviour dataset and Global Terrorism Database. Grounded in intelligence studies and international relations theory, the study integrates a constructivist human security framework. Surprisingly, the results show a significant correlation between increased intelligence capacity and the degree of terrorism, suggesting intelligence may undermine rather than enhance human security. This finding challenges traditional assumptions, though it must be viewed cautiously due to potential endogeneity.
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