Pub Date : 2023-08-03DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2242565
R. Price
{"title":"Revolutionary spring: fighting for a new world 1848–1849","authors":"R. Price","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2242565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2242565","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44447673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-03DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2242566
M. Odello
{"title":"Avoiding the terrorist trap: why respect for human rights is the key to defeating terrorism","authors":"M. Odello","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2242566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2242566","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44562403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-02DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2231196
Patrick F. Walsh, J. Ramsay, Ausma Bernot
ABSTRACT This paper spotlights lessons for health security intelligence across the ‘Five Eyes’ countries. The COVID-19 pandemic and recent worldwide patterns related to climate change have highlighted the crucial supporting role intelligence analysis may play in comprehending, planning for, and responding to such global health threats. In addition to the human lives lost, the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed serious national security concerns, notably for economic, societal, and in some cases, political stability. In response, a greater emphasis must be placed on intelligence. The paper has three goals. First, it outlines the major thematic areas where key ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence communities’ (ICs) skills were tested in supporting the management of COVID-19: 1) the origins of SARS-CoV-2, 2) disinformation campaigns, and 3) early warning systems. The article then explores how such factors have impacted ICs’ ability to provide decision-making support during COVID-19. Finally, the article discusses how ‘Five Eyes’ ICs may strengthen capacity in the three crucial areas. The ‘Five Eyes’ ICs must act swiftly but methodically to assess the security-based analytic lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic to maximize preparation for the next inevitable pandemic, whether caused by a natural disaster, climate change, or state or non-state threat actors.
{"title":"Health security intelligence capabilities post COVID-19: resisting the passive “new normal” within the Five Eyes","authors":"Patrick F. Walsh, J. Ramsay, Ausma Bernot","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2231196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2231196","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper spotlights lessons for health security intelligence across the ‘Five Eyes’ countries. The COVID-19 pandemic and recent worldwide patterns related to climate change have highlighted the crucial supporting role intelligence analysis may play in comprehending, planning for, and responding to such global health threats. In addition to the human lives lost, the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed serious national security concerns, notably for economic, societal, and in some cases, political stability. In response, a greater emphasis must be placed on intelligence. The paper has three goals. First, it outlines the major thematic areas where key ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence communities’ (ICs) skills were tested in supporting the management of COVID-19: 1) the origins of SARS-CoV-2, 2) disinformation campaigns, and 3) early warning systems. The article then explores how such factors have impacted ICs’ ability to provide decision-making support during COVID-19. Finally, the article discusses how ‘Five Eyes’ ICs may strengthen capacity in the three crucial areas. The ‘Five Eyes’ ICs must act swiftly but methodically to assess the security-based analytic lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic to maximize preparation for the next inevitable pandemic, whether caused by a natural disaster, climate change, or state or non-state threat actors.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42975003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-02DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2239037
E.C. Oomens, R. van Wegberg, A. J. Klievink, M. van Eeten
{"title":"To trust or to restrict? – mapping professional perspectives on intelligence powers and oversight in the Netherlands using Q-methodology","authors":"E.C. Oomens, R. van Wegberg, A. J. Klievink, M. van Eeten","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2239037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2239037","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45717005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-02DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2243165
J. G. Jones.
{"title":"A liberal chronicle in peace and war: journals and papers of J. A. Pease, 1st Lord Gainford, 1911-1915","authors":"J. G. Jones.","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2243165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2243165","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47267323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-20DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2228044
Yoshiki Kobayashi
ABSTRACT This study aims to determine the level of integration of Japan’s Intelligence Community (IC), particularly the effectiveness of the Director of Cabinet Intelligence (DCI) as a coordinating body, since the Japanese government started its IC reform in 2008. A quantitative analysis of the relationship between the Prime Minister, the DCI, and other actors reveals that the DCI has progressed in IC integration since 2008. The findings have significant implications for the future development of Japan’s IC, particularly in terms of the evolving role of the DCI as a community facilitator rather than a personal briefer to the Prime Minister.
{"title":"Integrating Japan’s Intelligence Community: analyzing the effectiveness of the Director of Cabinet Intelligence as a coordinating body","authors":"Yoshiki Kobayashi","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2228044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2228044","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study aims to determine the level of integration of Japan’s Intelligence Community (IC), particularly the effectiveness of the Director of Cabinet Intelligence (DCI) as a coordinating body, since the Japanese government started its IC reform in 2008. A quantitative analysis of the relationship between the Prime Minister, the DCI, and other actors reveals that the DCI has progressed in IC integration since 2008. The findings have significant implications for the future development of Japan’s IC, particularly in terms of the evolving role of the DCI as a community facilitator rather than a personal briefer to the Prime Minister.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42879539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-03DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2225934
Huw Dylan, A. Burton
ABSTRACT John le Carré is credited with re-defining spy fiction into something widely considered as more ‘authentic’. His work emerged during a period replete with spy scandals and public investigations. This article considers the intersection of the public history of intelligence with le Carré’s early novels, particularly The Spy Who Came in from the Cold. It reveals how the author drew creatively on that public history to shape his narratives and underpin the mood of his stories. Finally, it probes the ‘insider knowledge’ in the stories, illustrating that, contrary to le Carré’s protestations, there exists a demonstrable correspondence between fact and fiction.
{"title":"‘An anarchy of treason’: public history, insider knowledge and the early spy novels of John le Carré","authors":"Huw Dylan, A. Burton","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2225934","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2225934","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT John le Carré is credited with re-defining spy fiction into something widely considered as more ‘authentic’. His work emerged during a period replete with spy scandals and public investigations. This article considers the intersection of the public history of intelligence with le Carré’s early novels, particularly The Spy Who Came in from the Cold. It reveals how the author drew creatively on that public history to shape his narratives and underpin the mood of his stories. Finally, it probes the ‘insider knowledge’ in the stories, illustrating that, contrary to le Carré’s protestations, there exists a demonstrable correspondence between fact and fiction.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49277770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-29DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2229157
D. Molinaro
{"title":"Intelligence power and practice","authors":"D. Molinaro","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2229157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2229157","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46949747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-22DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2216963
B. G. M. Isaksen, K. McNaught
ABSTRACT The analytic standards governing the production of intelligence are outlined in a number of Intelligence Community Directives (ICDs). In this paper, we are concerned with ICDs 203, 206 and 208 and, in particular, how these relate to the handling of uncertainty in estimative intelligence. An inductive thematic analysis is employed which identifies several recurring themes. In addition, a conceptual map is developed which highlights relationships and the level of inter-connectedness between the standards. Requirements for improved operationalization of uncertainty handling are also discussed. The question of analytic feasibility is then examined in relation to the five themes extracted from the earlier analysis. The paper concludes that a new framework for uncertainty handling is required and suggests that such a framework should contain a process to assess analytic feasibility from the outset of a study.
{"title":"Towards a better framework for estimative intelligence – addressing quality through a systematic approach to uncertainty handling","authors":"B. G. M. Isaksen, K. McNaught","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2216963","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2216963","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The analytic standards governing the production of intelligence are outlined in a number of Intelligence Community Directives (ICDs). In this paper, we are concerned with ICDs 203, 206 and 208 and, in particular, how these relate to the handling of uncertainty in estimative intelligence. An inductive thematic analysis is employed which identifies several recurring themes. In addition, a conceptual map is developed which highlights relationships and the level of inter-connectedness between the standards. Requirements for improved operationalization of uncertainty handling are also discussed. The question of analytic feasibility is then examined in relation to the five themes extracted from the earlier analysis. The paper concludes that a new framework for uncertainty handling is required and suggests that such a framework should contain a process to assess analytic feasibility from the outset of a study.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43966139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-22DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2023.2225933
Ruxandra Oana Vlad
ABSTRACT In a world of increasing openness, secrecy retains its value. Covert operations, including strikes against individuals, can provide intelligence agencies with the ability to operate strategically, while limiting domestic entanglements and international provocation. But presidents increasingly push the boundaries, retrospectively using their decisions performatively for political advantage. This can confront agencies with a dilemma wherein they are pressed to demonstrate the rationale for a covert mission in ways that undermine future operational security. Evidence from the strikes on Osama bin Laden and Iran’s General Soleimani will be used to argue that retrospective briefs designed to enhance legitimacy or prestige are problematic. Instead, these active disclosures, sometimes by senior figures, can lead to a general unravelling of secrecy which has the potential to threaten future operational credibility and effectiveness.
{"title":"The perils of presidential openness: strikes, secrecy and performative opacity","authors":"Ruxandra Oana Vlad","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2225933","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2225933","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In a world of increasing openness, secrecy retains its value. Covert operations, including strikes against individuals, can provide intelligence agencies with the ability to operate strategically, while limiting domestic entanglements and international provocation. But presidents increasingly push the boundaries, retrospectively using their decisions performatively for political advantage. This can confront agencies with a dilemma wherein they are pressed to demonstrate the rationale for a covert mission in ways that undermine future operational security. Evidence from the strikes on Osama bin Laden and Iran’s General Soleimani will be used to argue that retrospective briefs designed to enhance legitimacy or prestige are problematic. Instead, these active disclosures, sometimes by senior figures, can lead to a general unravelling of secrecy which has the potential to threaten future operational credibility and effectiveness.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43541870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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