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CEO skill and firm performance CEO技能与公司绩效
IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101380
Katsuyuki Kubo , Takuya Kiriu , Shigeru Uchigasaki , Susumu Seko , Hiroaki Yamauchi
This study aims to analyze the impact of top managers’ skills on firm performance, particularly emphasizing their previous tenure in CEO positions in other firms. We assume that managers with previous managerial experience in other firms possess management skills. The study analyzes changes in the performance of firms that experience managerial turnover from managers without managerial skills to those who possess them, using propensity score matching with a difference-in-difference approach. We confirm that turnover from managers without management skills to those who possess them results in better performance.
本研究旨在分析高层管理人员的技能对公司绩效的影响,特别强调他们之前在其他公司担任首席执行官职位。我们假定以前在其他公司有过管理经验的经理具有管理技能。该研究使用倾向得分匹配和差异中的差异方法,分析了经历了从没有管理技能的经理到拥有管理技能的经理的管理人员更替的公司的绩效变化。我们确认,从没有管理技能的管理者到拥有管理技能的管理者的更替会带来更好的绩效。
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引用次数: 0
Japan's inflation under global inflation synchronization 全球通胀同步下的日本通胀
IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101368
Ichiro Fukunaga , Yosuke Kido , Kotaro Suita
In this paper, we analyze the effects of domestic and global factors on Japan's consumer price inflation, inflation expectations and nominal wages from the late 1990s to the post-pandemic period, using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models with short- and long-run zero and sign restrictions. We find that global shocks, including global supply, demand, and monetary policy shocks, account for about 40 % and 30 % of variance in four-quarter-ahead headline (excluding fresh food) and core inflation, respectively, and the importance of global shocks increases when post-pandemic data are included. Historical decompositions show that various types of global shocks, including downward cost pressure due to globalization reflected in positive global supply shocks, had persistently pushed down Japan’s consumer price inflation until the late 2010s. Subsequently, their contribution turned positive, both global supply and demand shocks significantly pushing up inflation, especially in the high-inflation phase after the pandemic. In addition, we find that services prices and nominal wages were also pushed up significantly by global shocks in the post-pandemic period.
本文采用具有短期和长期零约束和符号约束的结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,分析了从20世纪90年代末到大流行后,国内和全球因素对日本消费者价格通胀、通胀预期和名义工资的影响。我们发现,全球冲击,包括全球供应、需求和货币政策冲击,分别占未来四个季度总体通胀(不包括生鲜食品)和核心通胀方差的40%和30%左右,当包括疫情后数据时,全球冲击的重要性增加。历史分解表明,各种类型的全球冲击,包括全球化带来的成本下行压力,反映在积极的全球供应冲击中,持续压低了日本的消费者价格通胀,直到2010年代末。随后,它们的贡献转为积极,全球供应和需求冲击显著推高了通胀,特别是在大流行后的高通胀阶段。此外,我们发现,服务价格和名义工资在大流行后时期也受到全球冲击的显著推高。
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引用次数: 0
Digital labor platform under the boom and bust: Bank account data insights 盛衰下的数字劳动力平台:银行账户数据洞察
IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101378
Sachiko Kuroda , Koichiro Onishi
This study uses deidentified bank data from a Japanese megabank to analyze how the economic downturn affected labor supply in the platform economy. Specifically, we identify gig workers based on deposit information from food delivery platform services and examine changes in their labor supply before and after the pandemic. Individuals who take on food delivery gig work typically exhibit three characteristics: they are predominantly young, male, and have low liquidity. About 32 percent of these workers had liquidity below zero, excluding gig income, and 27 % had liquidity below 50,000 yen (approximately 335 USD), indicating that many face severe liquidity constraints. Additionally, liquidity tends to gradually decline in the months leading up to gig work. While there is an increased probability of entering the gig market, the likelihood of workers staying drops to 60–70 % in the first month, suggesting the gig market serves mainly as a temporary income-smoothing mechanism. Interestingly, the average liquidity balance in the first month for those who started gig work during the COVID-19 recession was higher than for those who began gig work during the pre-pandemic boom. In addition, the decline in liquidity before starting gig work was smaller during the COVID-19 recession compared to the pre-COVID boom. Although it was expected that participation during the downturn would be driven by those facing liquidity constraints, the data shows that even individuals with some financial leeway entered the gig market during recessions.
本研究使用日本大型银行的未识别银行数据来分析经济衰退如何影响平台经济中的劳动力供给。具体来说,我们根据外卖平台服务的押金信息识别零工,并研究他们在疫情前后的劳动力供应变化。从事送餐零工的人通常表现出三个特征:他们主要是年轻人、男性,流动性较低。除去零工收入,这些工人中约32%的流动性低于零,27%的流动性低于5万日元(约335美元),这表明许多人面临严重的流动性限制。此外,在零工前的几个月,流动性往往会逐渐下降。虽然进入零工市场的可能性增加了,但在第一个月,工人留下来的可能性降至60 - 70%,这表明零工市场主要是一种临时的收入平滑机制。有趣的是,在COVID-19衰退期间开始零工的人第一个月的平均流动性余额高于在大流行前繁荣时期开始零工的人。此外,在2019冠状病毒病衰退期间,与新冠病毒病前的繁荣相比,零工开工前的流动性下降幅度较小。尽管人们预计,在经济衰退期间,那些面临流动性限制的人将推动参与零工市场,但数据显示,即使是拥有一定财务自由度的个人,也会在经济衰退期间进入零工市场。
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引用次数: 0
Short-run and long-run consequences of unconventional monetary policy in Japan 日本非常规货币政策的短期和长期后果
IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101375
Shin-ichi Fukuda
Monetary policy is a powerful policy tool in stabilizing short-term economic fluctuations. However, no matter how effective it is, it could have unintended adverse impacts on the economy if the central bank continued extreme monetary easing over a long period of time. Japan is an exceptional country where such concern exists. This paper analyzes the effects of unconventional monetary policy in Japan since the end of the 1990s. We explore the effects not only on stabilizing short-term macroeconomic fluctuations such as the GDP gap, but also on medium- and long-term productivity such as total factor productivity (TFP). If the prolonged ultra-low interest rate environment distorts the price mechanism and causes misallocation of funds, the unconventional monetary policy could reduce the productivity of the economy. The estimation results show that the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s unconventional monetary policy had a significant positive impact on the GDP gap even under a liquidity trap where the policy rate hit its effective lower bound (ELB). However, they also show that unconventional monetary policy had a significant negative impact on TFP growth. The results suggest that while unconventional monetary policy was effective in boosting the economy in the short term, the prolonged ultra-low interest rate environment may have had a negative impact on medium- and long-term productivity growth in the Japanese economy.
货币政策是稳定短期经济波动的有力政策工具。然而,无论多么有效,如果央行长期持续极端货币宽松,可能会对经济产生意想不到的不利影响。日本是存在这种担忧的例外国家。本文分析了20世纪90年代末以来日本非常规货币政策的效果。我们不仅探讨了对稳定GDP差距等短期宏观经济波动的影响,还探讨了对中长期生产率(如全要素生产率(TFP))的影响。如果长期的超低利率环境扭曲了价格机制,导致资金配置不当,非常规货币政策可能会降低经济生产率。估计结果表明,即使在政策利率达到有效下限的流动性陷阱下,日本央行的非常规货币政策对GDP缺口也有显著的积极影响。然而,它们也表明非常规货币政策对全要素生产率增长有显著的负面影响。研究结果表明,尽管非常规货币政策在短期内有效提振了日本经济,但长期的超低利率环境可能对日本经济的中长期生产率增长产生了负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Entrepreneurship of the ice age cohorts 冰河时代同辈的企业家精神
IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101367
Akira Fukuda
A cohort that struggles to enter the labor market during economic downturns may struggle to secure stable employment and income throughout their lives. The “Ice Age” cohorts are ones that entered the Japanese labor market during the prolonged economic recession between 1993 and 2004. This study examines the performance of startups established by the Ice Age cohorts. With limited job opportunities, some Ice Age cohorts likely attempted to start their businesses as an alternative means of income. Using a panel survey of startups, we examine the performance of such attempts. Startups established by the Ice Age cohorts had significantly higher survival rates than those established by the “bubble” cohorts that entered the labor market during the economic boom. However, among the surviving startups, those established by the Ice Age cohorts with junior college or vocational school backgrounds underperform relative to the bubble cohorts. These results suggest that the Ice Age cohorts faced limited employment opportunities in the labor market upon entry and were forced to continue operating their businesses under suboptimal performance conditions.
在经济低迷时期努力进入劳动力市场的一群人,可能一生都难以获得稳定的就业和收入。“冰河时代”是指在1993年至2004年经济长期衰退期间进入日本劳动力市场的人。本研究考察了由冰河时代群体建立的初创企业的绩效。由于就业机会有限,冰河时代的一些人可能试图创业作为另一种收入来源。通过对初创公司的小组调查,我们研究了这些尝试的表现。“冰河时代”那群人创立的初创企业的存活率明显高于在经济繁荣时期进入劳动力市场的“泡沫”那群人。然而,在幸存下来的初创企业中,那些由拥有大专或职业学校背景的冰河时代群体建立的初创企业,相对于泡沫时代的初创企业而言,表现不佳。这些结果表明,冰河时代人群在进入劳动力市场时面临有限的就业机会,并被迫在次优绩效条件下继续经营企业。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on foreign direct investment from China, the United States, and major investor countries “一带一路”倡议对中国、美国和主要投资国外国直接投资的影响
IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101365
Yasuyuki Todo , Shuhei Nishitateno , Sean Brown
This paper investigates the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on foreign direct investment (FDI) from China and other major source countries, such as the United States (US), France, and Japan, by applying staggered difference-in-differences (DID) event study estimations to a gravity model. In addition to estimations using country-pair fixed effects, we estimate models with source and host country-year fixed effects to control for the effect through changes in any host country attribute due to the BRI, such as infrastructure, and highlight the effect through changes in bilateral relationships. We find that FDI from China, Hong Kong SAR, the US, Switzerland, Japan, and France to BRI countries increased in the post-BRI period, whereas FDI from the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, and Luxembourg decreased. After controlling for country-year fixed effects, there remains a post-BRI upward trend in FDI from the US, Switzerland, and France and a downward trend in FDI from the UK, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. These findings suggest that FDI from non-China countries to BRI countries can be affected by their bilateral relationships. For example, the US may have invested more in BRI countries to strategically compete with China in those locations, whereas France and Switzerland may have done so because of investment cooperation with China in Africa.
本文通过将交错差中差(DID)事件研究估计应用于重力模型,研究了“一带一路”倡议(BRI)对中国和其他主要来源国(如美国、法国和日本)外国直接投资(FDI)的影响。除了使用国家对固定效应进行估计外,我们还使用来源和东道国-年固定效应来估计模型,以控制因“一带一路”而导致的东道国任何属性(如基础设施)变化的影响,并通过双边关系的变化来强调这种影响。我们发现,中国、香港特别行政区、美国、瑞士、日本和法国对“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资在“一带一路”之后有所增加,而英国、荷兰和卢森堡的直接投资则有所减少。在控制了国家-年份固定效应后,美国、瑞士和法国的外国直接投资在“一带一路”倡议后仍呈上升趋势,而英国、荷兰和卢森堡的外国直接投资呈下降趋势。这些发现表明,非中国国家对“一带一路”国家的FDI会受到双边关系的影响。例如,美国可能在“一带一路”沿线国家投资更多,以便在这些地区与中国进行战略竞争,而法国和瑞士可能是因为与中国在非洲的投资合作而这样做。
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引用次数: 0
The trade effects of export control regulations in Japan 日本出口管制条例对贸易的影响
IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101366
Kazunobu HAYAKAWA , Fukunari KIMURA , Kenta YAMANOUCHI
Recent geopolitical tensions have generated various uncertainties in cross-border economic activities. A major concern is how far export control regulations by the US and its allies would decouple supply chains. This study empirically investigates the trade effects of export control regulations by Japan initiated on July 23, 2023. The regulations restrict exports of 22 items of semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) and one item of semiconductor inspection equipment (SIE), implicitly focusing on Japan’s exports to China. Our empirical analysis employs the monthly data of Japanese exports and Chinese imports. Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, the export restrictions significantly decreased exports of some SME products from Japan to China but increased those of some other SME products. Second, we found insignificant changes in the exports of SIE from Japan to China when controlling for various elements in China, but those exports were found to increase significantly when controlling for various elements in Japan. These results suggest that when we empirically examine the trade effect of export control regulations against China, it is crucially important to use the trade statistics at the finest product level possible and to control for confounding factors in China as much as possible.
最近的地缘政治紧张局势给跨境经济活动带来了各种不确定性。一个主要的担忧是,美国及其盟国的出口管制法规将在多大程度上使供应链脱钩。本研究实证考察了日本于2023年7月23日启动的出口管制法规对贸易的影响。该规定限制了22种半导体制造设备(SME)和1种半导体检测设备(SIE)的出口,暗示了日本对中国的出口。我们的实证分析采用了日本出口和中国进口的月度数据。我们的研究结果可以总结如下。首先,出口限制显著减少了日本部分中小企业产品对中国的出口,但增加了其他一些中小企业产品的出口。其次,在控制了中国的各种因素后,我们发现日本对中国的SIE出口变化不显著,但在控制了日本的各种因素后,我们发现出口显著增加。这些结果表明,当我们实证检验出口管制法规对中国的贸易影响时,使用尽可能精细的产品水平的贸易统计数据并尽可能控制中国的混杂因素至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-border technology licensing with R&D Opportunity and Government Intervention 具有研发机会的跨境技术许可与政府干预
IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101364
Jota Ishikawa , Toshihiro Okubo
Technology holders may have strategic incentive to offer licensing contracts that deter (potential) rivals from conducting their own R&D. This study develops a simple model of technology licensing from a foreign firm to a home firm, in which R&D serves as an alternative means for the home firm to enter the market. We first derive the optimal licensing fees with differentiated goods and two-part tariffs. Depending on parameter values, three types of licensing contracts can emerge: (i) by means of a fixed fee alone, (ii) by means of a royalty alone, and (iii) by means of a combination of a fixed fee and a royalty. We then specifically investigate intervention by the home government: withholding taxes on royalties and R&D subsidies. A withholding tax may improve home welfare without imposing any burden on the home firm and consumers. Committing itself to an R&D subsidy, the home government can reduce licensing fees without any cost.
技术持有者可能有提供许可合同的战略动机,以阻止(潜在的)竞争对手进行自己的研发。本研究建立了一个简单的外国企业向本国企业提供技术许可的模型,其中研发是本国企业进入市场的另一种方式。首先,我们推导出了有区别商品和两部分关税的最优许可费用。根据参数值的不同,可以出现三种类型的许可合同:(i)仅采用固定费用,(ii)仅采用特许权使用费,以及(iii)采用固定费用和特许权使用费的组合。然后,我们具体调查了本国政府的干预:对特许权使用费和研发补贴的预扣税。预扣税可以改善家庭福利,而不会给家庭企业和消费者带来任何负担。本国政府承诺提供研发补贴,可以在没有任何成本的情况下降低许可费。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of flooding on real estate transactions in densely populated areas: Evidence from the 2019 Typhoon Hagibis in Japan 洪水对人口稠密地区房地产交易的影响:来自 2019 年日本台风 "哈吉比斯 "的证据
IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101363
Ikuto Aiba , Daisuke Hasegawa
This study examines the impact of flooding on real estate transactions in an urban area using the flooding caused by Typhoon Hagibis, which hit Japan in October 2019, as a natural experiment. Applying the difference-in-differences method, we find that the contract and offer prices of properties in flooded areas declined by about 6.0% and 5.5% on average, respectively. These price drops indicate an approximately 0.5 percentage point rise in the discount rate, which is defined as the percentage change from the offer to contract prices. Regarding apartment transactions, we show that the negative effects are significant for higher floors but insignificant for lower floors. This suggests the possibility that buyers have become more aware that higher floors are also vulnerable to flooding, given the flood-associated risks of power and water outages. The findings also reveal that the negative effects of flooding on detached houses are more serious and emerge more slowly than those on apartments.
本研究利用2019年10月袭击日本的台风海贝思(Hagibis)引发的洪水作为自然实验,考察了洪水对城市地区房地产交易的影响。运用差中差法,我们发现洪涝地区房产的合同价格和报价平均分别下降了约6.0%和5.5%。这些价格下降表明贴现率上升了大约0.5个百分点,这被定义为从报价到合同价格的百分比变化。对于公寓交易,我们发现高层的负面影响显著,而低层的负面影响不显著。这表明,考虑到洪水带来的断电和停水风险,买家可能已经更加意识到,较高楼层也容易受到洪水的影响。研究结果还表明,洪水对独立式住宅的负面影响比对公寓的负面影响更严重,出现的速度也更慢。
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引用次数: 0
Bank–firm relationships and the value of cash: Evidence from the financial crisis in Japan 银行-公司关系和现金价值:来自日本金融危机的证据
IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101362
Mana Kaneko , Toshinori Sasaki , Katsushi Suzuki
We examine the effect of bankfirm relationships on the marginal value of cash held by firms during the 2008 financial crisis using Japanese data. Our results show that (1) during the financial crisis, the close bank-firm relationships reduce the marginal value of cash. In particular, the effect is stronger for financially distressed firms. (2) Financially distressed firms with closer bank–firm relationships are less likely to save cash. These results are consistent with the information production hypothesis that close bank-firm relationships increase firms' ability to raise funds by encouraging banks to produce information, as a result, reducing the value of cash held by firms.
我们使用日本的数据检验了2008年金融危机期间银行-公司关系对公司持有现金边际价值的影响。研究结果表明:(1)在金融危机期间,密切的银企关系降低了现金的边际价值。特别是对财务困难的公司,这种影响更大。(2)与银行-公司关系密切的财务困境企业不太可能节省现金。这些结果与信息生产假说是一致的,即密切的银企关系通过鼓励银行提供信息来提高企业筹集资金的能力,从而降低企业持有的现金价值。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies
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